Forum: pol
Page 3202
Subject: Election 2008 predictions ONLY (Toral invited)

  Posted by: Seattle Zen - [49112418] Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 19:02
This is the thread where we make our predictions for the coming election. It can be as simple as "Obama" or a state-by-state breakdown. Senate, Congressional races, even governors and initiative predictions welcome. What is not welcome is any comments or tin hat lunacy.

Toral was once a proud prognosticator round here. If he deigns to slum these parts, his predictions would be welcome.
 
1DWetzel
      ID: 33337117
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 19:33 		I like it.

Obama 338 - 200 (winning every Kerry state plus NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, VA, and FL).

Senate: Dems 58 - 42 (counting Lieberman as a Dem). Pickups: AK, CO, NH, NM, NC, OR, and VA, but not MN. Prediction for nailbiter Senate race that lasts two weeks: Georgia.

House: Dems 247 - 188.
 
2Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 19:36 		Obama by more than 20 points
CA, CN, DC, MD,HI, IL, NY, RI

Obama by more than 10 points
DE, MA, ME, MI, NJ, OR, PA, VT, WA

Obama by less than 10 points
CO, FL, IA, IN, MN, MO, MT, NC, NH, NM, NV, OH, VA, WI

McCain by more than 20 points
AK, ID, UT

McCain by more than 10 points
AL, KS, KY, NE, OK, TN, WY

McCain by less than 10 points
AR, AZ, GA, LA, MS, ND, SC, SD, TX, WV

Overall: Obama 54%, McCain 45.8%, others .2%

Senate: Democrats 61 (including Sen. Judas of CN) Republicans 39

Winners: Al Franken MN, Kay Hagen NC, Bruce Lundsford KY, Jim Martin GA, Mark Begich AK. The Texas race will not be decided for two weeks as Noriega surprises everyone with an outstanding showing, but losing by a whisker in the end.

I don’t have much feel for the House, my gut says it will not be a great night for the Democrats. What I do think will happen is Betsy Marksey will defeat Musgrave in CO, Elwyn Tinklenburg beats Michele Bachman in MN simply because everyone loves the name Elwyn Tinklenburg, it has nothing to do with Bachman’s insane comments on Hardball. And Darcy Burner shows that the third time is a charm as she unseats Dan “Third” Reichert here in WA.

Out here in the Great State of Washington, we will become the second state to allow physicians to prescribe fatal doses of meds with the passage of the “Death with Dignity” Act. Please, Baldwin, restrain yourself.
 
3Perm Dude
      ID: 219572916
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 19:40 		353 to 185.

BTW, here's a cool interactive electoral map to play with.

Want to look a little more on the House & Senate. I think the Dems have a shot at 59 or 60 in the Senate. I think they can toss Lieberman overboard at this point.
 
4Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 20:18 		If McCain gets 46% of the popular vote with an incumbent Republican President with an approval rating in the low 30s, then that's really saying something about Obama. He really should win the popular vote by 10%+.

Obama in a landslide electorally.

Dems get a 60 seat Senate and gain measurably in the House, but I'm not sure by how much.
 
5Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 20:31 		Obama 278
McCain 260

Obama 51%
McCain 48%

McConnel will beat Lunsford, Zen. Even the Dem party faithful privately don't want Lunsford to win. A decent candidate would have beat McConnell this year.
 
6Tree
      ID: 219262723
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 20:46 		i've got a huge landslide. Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain with 174. granted, i have Missouri going to Obama, and that might end up being McCain, but even so, that would only make it 353 to 185...

in fact, i'm wondering if PD and i have the same states, but he has MO going to McCain...
 
7Boldwin
      ID: 2962619
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 21:23 		Obama wins it just with the early voting. 'Vote early, vote often' - Chicago city motto
 
8Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 21:25 		No landslide, closer to MBJ's prediction of
278 - 260 Obama.
 
9Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 21:26 		NO COMMENTS! Predictions only.
 
10Perm Dude
      ID: 219572916
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 09:50 		I'm going with 59 Democratic Senators at the end of the night (with McConnell winning and Chambliss losing)
 
11boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 10:22 		Obama big in total votes closer in electoral some where between PV and PD's prediction.
 
12The Beezer
      ID: 31756616
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 17:41 		325 - 210 Obama
56 - 42 Dems in the Senate (leaving out the independents)
245 - 190 Dems in the House

Oh, and Pat McCrory becomes only the third GOP governor in NC history, while Mike Munger polls 8% for the Libertarians.
 
13J-Bar
      ID: 459493015
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 18:16 		269-269 tie House for Obama, Senate deadlocked, Cheney picks McCain, Riots in all major cities even though the process follows the rules in place and then the Dems challenge the rules, and SCOTUS has to rule.
 
14Perm Dude
      ID: 52943015
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 19:12 		The House of Representatives will choose the President in case of an electoral college tie.
 
15biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 19:47 		Obama loses in key Diebold-counted districts, to give a McCain a 271-267 victory.

Rioting in the streets. double digit unemployment. Slow decent into 2 decades of military rule and eventual anarchy.

Fast-forward to 2026. China the sole super-power, with the US spending 82% of GDP to try and maintain military rule.
 
16Razor
      ID: 529382710
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 20:14 		Obama being swindled out of the Presidency in the same fashion Gore was would cause the worst riots in this country in a very long time.
 
17sarge33rd
      ID: 76442923
      Thu, Oct 30, 2008, 20:58 		Obama 359 to 179 (IL, IN, OH, NC, FL go blue while MO, ND, MT, NV go red))
Sen 58 Dem, 40 Rep, 2 Ind
House 238 Dem, 197 Rep
 
18walk
      ID: 181472714
      Fri, Oct 31, 2008, 11:42 		I also expect Obama to win big, along the lines of what PD said, 353 to 185. Senate with 58-60 Dem seats and gains in the House for Dems as well. I'm still scared though based on the results of the last two presidential elections.
 
19Tree
      ID: 13714198
      Fri, Oct 31, 2008, 12:07 		Obama being swindled out of the Presidency in the same fashion Gore was would cause the worst riots in this country in a very long time.

one would hope so.
 
20Boldwin
      ID: 2962619
      Fri, Oct 31, 2008, 17:51 		'Elect my marxist or we'll burn yer town down'. Nice...and you wonder why anyone questions your love of country.
 
21Seattle Zen
      ID: 49112418
      Fri, Oct 31, 2008, 18:36 		Shut the hell the up, you morons! NO COMMENTS!
 
22azdbacker
      ID: 13945242
      Sat, Nov 01, 2008, 13:23 		McCain 300, Obama 238
McCain wins popular vote by 1.5-2%
McCain 31 states, Obama 19
 
24man
      ID: 511027116
      Sat, Nov 01, 2008, 19:02 		Obama. 338 to 200 EC; 52% to 46% popular. (Village Idiots will vote in large numbers for Nader again, and Barr.)

Dems 57-41-2 in the Senate.

 
25Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 23:44 		Did I mention that you may adjust your predictions? As long as you shut your pie-hole immediately thereafter.

Unlike the current administration, I will listen to advice that I'm not happy hearing. It's too bad that the Democrats nominated Bruce Lundsford in Kentucky because McConnell was vulnerable and it sounds like Lundsford just wasn't the man for the job. Strike the Lundsford prediction.

Even though Ron Paul is on the ballot, Montana simply does not have enough black voters hiding here and there waiting to spring into action tomorrow. Strike Montana.

This was originally a typo, McCain will win OK by more than 20 points.
 
26azdbacker
      ID: 13945242
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 03:41 		I will be closer than anyone on the popular vote. And I will make a public apology here if I am not.
I will be correct
 
28man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 05:07 		Obama: 364 Electors; McCain 174

Obama: 54% of the popular vote; McCain 44%; Nader/Barr 2%

57 Dem Senators; 41 Republicans; 2 Indy

(Lieberman will be cast out and will be forced to caucus with the Republicans, losing his Chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee.)

 
29Tree
      ID: 121035316
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:29 		I will be closer than anyone on the popular vote. And I will make a public apology here if I am not.

can we discuss this in another thread? you really think McCain will win the popular vote?!
 
30Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:39 		Final Fox News poll

With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain -- 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters.

Among independents, 43 percent would be comfortable with Biden and 28 percent with Palin.

Palin now has an overall negative rating, as slightly more voters have an unfavorable view of her (49 percent) than have a favorable one (45 percent). Looking back at results among registered voters from the time of Palin's announcement to today, her positive rating has dropped by 8 points, while her negative rating has increased by 20 points.
 
31Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:46 		291 - Obama - 52%
247 - McCain - 45%

Democrats take 57 seats in the Senate.
 
32azdbacker
      ID: 13945242
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 12:54 		Tree - sure, feel free to start one. Yes, I do believe what I wrote. I will weigh in if you start another thread - but only briefly. RIght now I'm writing a paper for my "Voters in America" class that I need for my poli-sci minor, and then I'll be live-blogging election results and coverage at my site the rest of the day. But if you wish to start one, I'll comment on it.
 
33Tree
      ID: 121035316
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 13:15 		Tree - sure, feel free to start one. Yes, I do believe what I wrote. I will weigh in if you start another thread - but only briefly. RIght now I'm writing a paper for my "Voters in America" class that I need for my poli-sci minor, and then I'll be live-blogging election results and coverage at my site the rest of the day. But if you wish to start one, I'll comment on it.

i asked you another question in this thread, post 308, about to scroll off the page, so i guess that's a good place to do it.
 
34man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:29 		Check out the exit polls on CNN. They show a decisive victory for Obama in VA an a likely victory in INDIANA.

They will no doubt show a big victory in Ohio in 60 seconds.

Obama wins big tonight.

 
35man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:41 		Ohio 53% to 47% for Obama in the CNN Exit poll. (You have to do the math from the gender breakdown, since they don't want you to do what I'm doing.)

GA and NC nearly tied.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1

 
36Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 20:30 		Exit polls are worthless.

The most promising thing for Obama so far is his keeping Indiana close. Win or lose, if he is able to do that, I don't see how he doesn't pick up enough states around the country to win. Indiana is hugely red.
 
37Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:15 		cnn.com calling ny, michigan, minn, and PA for obama...
 
38Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:19 		At this point McCain can't lose another toss-up state...
 
39Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:41 		this is starting to look like a major ass kicking.

azdbacker - i'm still really curious where you pulled your figures from...even more so now...
 
40Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:44 		It's all about margin of victory now.
 
41sarge33rd
      ID: 76442923
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:53 		FL looking like an Obama win. If so, CA is the only other win he needs, to take the prize.
 
42Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:02 		Elizabeth Dole looks to be a loser too...

how's that for godless, you twit....
 
43sarge33rd
      ID: 76442923
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:15 		NC and VA both beginning to tilt toward Obama as well.

NC is really tight, with Obama leading atm by some 12k votes with 74% reported.
 
44walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:47 		So psyched. MSNBC, Daily Show/Colbert and 3 blogs open all night. So nice to have someone elected who is not a dolt.
 
45biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:51 		I'm still afraid to let it sick in.

Sanity in the White House. Isn't there a law against that?
 
46walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:54 		bili baby! So psyched. In about 7 minutes, they'll give him California, and very soon thereafter he'll get one or more of the following: Fla, Virginia, NC and Indiana where the remaining precincts are in predominant Obama supporting areas.
 
47sarge33rd
      ID: 76442923
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:56 		NC moving hard to McCain now. VA and FL are pretty solidly Obama.
 
48walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:57 		Indiana just flipped to Obama. Lake and neighboring north/western counties are always the last to be counted, and are heavy for Obama. 94% in. CNN is very fast on their updates.
 
49walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:00 		MarKos says McCain may be conceding right now, 11pm EST. We'll see.
 
50walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:00 		NBC just called Obama as President elect.
 
51Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:02 		CNN - President Obama - 9:01PM MST
 
52Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:14 		what a glorious day. a glorious glorious day.
 
53walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:19 		McCain conceding now...crowd is booing recognition of Obama's victory.
 
54walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:21 		Classy speech by McCain so far.
 
55Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:26 		and McCain shushed them. good for him.

my girlfriend fell asleep as soon as they announced Obama winning. guess i should wake her up when he speaks...
 
56walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:27 		Now booing Biden...and McCain gives an incredibly humble and cool speech.
 
57walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:28 		Hit the DVR or Tivo, Tree.
 
58Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:50 		the McCain who gave that speech was the McCain people respected.

it's like he was taken over by evil PalinPodPeople for the last couple months...and now, he's back to normal...
 
59biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:57 		It was Steve Schmidt. At some point McCain said "I'll do whatever it takes to win", and Schmidt said "Do what I say!".

Moral: If you sell your soul, don't sell it to a moron.
 
60Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:13 		fourty years ago the president-elect wouldn't have been able to take a pee in a lot of restrooms that I use.
 
61Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:23 		Looks like a pretty serene crowd in Chicago. Well behaved for half a million people. I've seen much rowdier leaving Soldier Field after a Bears game.
 
62biliruben
      Leader
      ID: 589301110
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:35 		They were following Obama's mood. I think he's got a lot of really hard work in front of him, and he's starting to feel it's weight. He also lost the woman who raised him 2 days ago.
 
63Tree
      ID: 51011420
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:36 		that was so amazing. i literally had tears in my eyes the entire time Obama spoke. what a great, great day in our nation's history...
 
64C1-NRB
      ID: 596573021
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 01:00 		that was so amazing. i literally had tears in my eyes the entire time Obama spoke. what a great, great day in our nation's history...

I'll almost go that far and say that President-elect Obama's speech tonight could go down as one of the best in American history.
 
65James K Polk
      ID: 171029511
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:42 		If you sell your soul, don't sell it to a moron.

Bili, next time I need to update my email sig, I'm quoting you.
 
66Tree
      ID: 121035316
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:53 		Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain with 174

If Obama wins NC, and loses GA and MO, i nailed his 364. of course, that math works out to McCain having just 173, so either my math sucks, or something isn't working out.

 
67Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:57 		Nebraska's 2nd district still has an EV in play.
 
68azdbacker
      ID: 13945242
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:28 		Nice prediction, Tree. Man, and sarge and Perm Dude were all dead-on too.

Hey, can I have North Carolina please, since you guys already won? I have some money riding on that one.
 
69sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:31 		watching NC last night, it see-sawed back and forth and back and forth. VERY narrow margin there, whichever way it ultimately falls/fell.
 
70DWetzel at work
      ID: 49962710
      Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:52 		Pesky Indiana did me in. (I had NC/MO for McCain too, we'll see.)

Might be right about that nailbiter in Georgia, though not for the reason I expected. Not sure Saxby gets the 50% needed to avoid the runoff.
 
71Tree
      ID: 121035316
      Thu, Nov 06, 2008, 12:41 		looks like North Carolina has gone to Obama, with Missouri still to go:

current tally is 364 to 162...
 
72Seattle Zen
      ID: 358591721
      Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 14:44 		It's still early as MO is still not official and the Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska senate races are not over, but let's look at my calls.

Unless something changes, it looks like the only state I guess incorrectly was Missouri. As for the margins of victory, I underestimated McCain's results in some southern states, which accounts for my underestimating his nationwide results.

Every state I predicted Obama would win by 20 or more or ten or more points did so, but I underestimated MA, DE, and VT's results as they all had over 20 points. Likewise, MN, NM, NV, and WI all had over ten points and I didn't predict that.

I incorrectly thought McCain would win WY by ten to twenty points, he got over twenty. AL, AR, LA, MS, TX, and WV all were +10 wins for McCain and those numbers surprised me.

The biggest surprises for me were New Mexico and Nevada for their huge margins, which I have to imagine came from poor estimating Hispanic turnout and their overwhelming support of Obama. Only 36% of Arizona's Latino voters supported the old man. Wisconsin's margin was also very surprising to me, don't know why right now.

I'm ecstatic that Betsy Marksey won, disappointed that we won't have an Elwyn in Washington and very disappointed that Darcy Burner lost a nail biter for the third straight election.

Glancing through the thread, I think I was the closest to being correct with the up-in-the-air MO possibly my only blemish. Tree looks like he finished second and Sarge third. AzDBacker graciously admitted his last place finish, Biliruben thankfully was just about as wrong, where is his apology? :)
 
73Building 7
      ID: 1103028
      Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 16:59 		I predict Franken will win in Minnesota.

And what happened to toral? He's a conservative isn't he? Never mind, I can guess what happened.
 
74Perm Dude
      SuperDude
      ID: 030792616
      Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 18:46 		Toral was fine when he wasn't drunk. When he was, he turned into a nasty shiit.
 
75Building 7
      ID: 471052128
      Wed, Jul 01, 2009, 12:33 		It took awhile, but my prediction came true. Franken wins Minnesota. I think he was about 300 votes behind when that bold prediction was made.