Forum: pol
Page 3207
Subject: Final thoughts/comments before the election

  Posted by: Pancho Villa - [51546319] Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 22:20
SZ asked in his predictions thread that comments be excluded.
This is the thread where you can give your final thoughts and comments about how the candidates have run their campaigns and predictions about how they'll govern if elected.
 
1sarge33rd
      ID: 76442923
      Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 22:24 		I don't believe anyone truly knows, how either will govern. I only hope, that Obama is the throwback to the citizen-statesman type who founded this country. Someone who truly will try and put partisanship aside and advance what is best for ALL of us. (IOW, someone who can try and work with N Pelosi for ex, to set aside her 'tit-for-tat' approach and stop excluding the 'other side'' simply because thats how the 'other side' treated you when they were in power.)

We need honest leadership in this nation right now. Not a party leader, a NATIONal leader. I'm hopeful, Sen Obama will be that man.
 
2astade
      ID: 23100322
      Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 23:00 		With a Democratic majority in the Senate and House of Representatives I don't see a Democratic President being 'bi-partisan'....but call me crazy.
 
3Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 23:10 		I'm still conflicted. There's a lot of things I like about John McCain. There are things I like about Barack Obama. I find this choice to be far superior than the 2004 Bush/Kerry race.

While the popular thought has been that McCain's strength is foreign affairs and national security and Obama has the edge with domestic and economic issues, I feel the opposite is true.

I feel Obama will take a more measured position in foreign affairs, especially as it relates to agressive military adventures. Our relationships with Russia and China will be critical during the next administration. McCain and Palin will enter office having denoted Russia as an enemy. I think that's the wrong approach. The worst way to deal with Iran is to alienate Russia and China, a development that will be furthered by a McCain administration. If McCain wins, talk radio will take credit, and they will remind him daily, while stressing the need for belligerence in our relationships with most of the rest he world. Sadly, I feel McCain will gladly adhere to continued aggression as part of his country first philosophy.

As for domestic and economic issues, I give McCain the edge. While I don't buy into the Marxist BS, there are lots of policies Obama is advancing that will increase the size of government and expand the nanny state.
Both will be a huge improvement over Bush regarding environmental issues(even with Palin).

McCain has indicated he will veto spending bills that are overweight with pork, and veto(especially with a Dem majority in Congress) is a word I don't think I've ever heard Obama utter. Along the same lines, I fear an Obama administration and a Dem majority congress will be irresponsible spenders as they view a victory as a mandate.

I'm truly undecided, but Utah is safely in the McCain column, so I may vote Libertarian just to raise their total numbers, even though I'm no big fan of Bob Barr. I will vote to retain Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson(deemed too conservative by the Pelosi Dems) and Republican Governor Jon Huntsman, although if McCain wins he'll likely get a juicy cabinet post. He was one of the only Utah Republicans to back McCain against Romney.

 
4DWetzel
      ID: 33337117
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 00:18 		"I may vote Libertarian just to raise their total numbers, even though I'm no big fan of Bob Barr."

I'll be doing this too, for pretty much the same reasons. I think it's safe to say that my particular vote won't sway the state of Illinois.
 
5Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 00:28 		I think today is a historic day, and I hope 11/4/08 is remembered as a great day in American history.
 
6Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 06:07 		Has Illinois produced a President that has sucked?

Reagan was born in Tampico and Lincoln came to prominence out of Illinois.

I can't think of others from Illinois. Are there any?
 
7walk
      ID: 139332920
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 06:54 		Okay, 6:15am vote is in. Cool. Crowded at my polling station in NYC. Many neighbors there with their kids. My wife and I took turns.
 
8boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:35 		I think PV said it better than i could have hoped to have to in post 3...I would just add that i was going to vote for Obama, but it was at the last moment i was swade against him, by his past behaviors and not the nonsense that he is socialist, but indeed the fact that he was the exact opposite. he might have socialized with some shady characters but that was only because he was doing what he had to do get elected and move up in the world. I guess it all broke my illusion that he was something more than just another politician. Living in a state where my vote might actually matter, I voted Libertarian. And, I will not try and justify it.
 
9sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 10:50 		HIGHLY unscientific and grossly small polling sample size:

The question: Sir. M;am if you don't mind my asking; did you vote McCain-Palin/Obama-Biden or Other?

5 McCain-Palin
4 Obama-Biden
1 Other
2 none of your gddmn business


Had to ask 12 to get 10 responses.

50% McCain/Palin in a definitve Red state is not good.
40% Obama-Biden in a strong Rep state is solid
10% Other means either Libertarian or no vote. Unknown which.

Those other 2 responses...kind of throw a monkey wrench into it...but what the hell. lol
 
10C1-NRB
      ID: 588421510
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 10:55 		sarge- Aren't you in the only county in the state to go blue in the last two elections?
 
11sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 10:57 		not anymore. That would be Travis County/Austin. I'm in Harker Heights now. (next door to Killeen which is where Ft Hood is located.)
 
12C1-NRB
      ID: 588421510
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 11:17 		Oh, right. You got there just as I left. Hmmm.
 
13sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 11:27 		Yep, and leaving here at the end of the month for the WI/MI border area.
 
14sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 11:35 		Redskins were soundly thrashed last night. That means, according to that particular indicator anyway, that the incumbent party is about to lose the WH.
 
15Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 12:38 		Wow - just got back from voting. 30 minute wait. First time I've ever had to wait to vote at this voting station. Poll worker told me their was a 2 hour wait earlier this morning and that at other precints there was a 2 hour wait all day. No idea what that means but that unprecedented for my locale if it holds up. In addition to the presidential election we have the Senate race and some hotly contested local elections.

I placed my protest vote for Nader this year; I couldn't stomach Barr (my usual party of choice) and Obama doesn't need my bitter, fear driven vote for his annointment. McConnel got my senate vote for the fist time. That's how bad Lundsford is.
 
16man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 15:37 		Seems like the main question is how severe the ass-kicking will be, and, by extension, how clear the message. I've never liked the term "mandate," but I do think it will be easier for Obama to rule if he wins by 10% -- which we be the biggest margin of victory for any non-incumbent President since Harry Truman in 1952.

Does anyone remember the popular Republican-leaning statistician-poster (from the South, I believe) with whom I had a long debate about Gore/Bush/Buchanan/Florida back in 2000? TIA. I'm curious to read what he's posting these days.

 
17Baldwin
      ID: 201045320
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 15:42 		I'm guessing you refer to Madman, who has been driven off by trolls or else it was just professional responsibilities claiming his time. He posts very sporadically and seldom.
 
18Baldwin
      ID: 201045320
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:04 		I have avoided making any calls/predictions on states but I would be amazed if Obama's tape turning up about 'bankrupting out the coal industry' doesn't lose him Pennsylvania. It was going to be a squeaker anyway.
 
19Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:04 		This makes me feel great about the election

Over 100,000 people registered to vote in both GA and another state. A TV news crew tracks down some who either voted in 2 states or received absentee ballots from GA after voting in Ohio ("because it was a battleground state")
 
20man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:10 		Thanks, Baldwin. That sounds right. He was an Asst. Prof at a Southern U., as I recall. I was a statistician at UCLA. We clashed over the correct methodology for estimating the odds of Buchanan's high vote total in one district, but I think it was probably a case of political differences guiding logic (his, of course).

BTW, Truman lost in '52. I should have said Eisenhower.

 
21Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:12 		I have avoided making any calls/predictions on states but I would be amazed if Obama's tape turning up about 'bankrupting out the coal industry' doesn't lose him Pennsylvania.

Why? Is Pennsylvania looking to build a bunch of new coal-fired power plants? Do Pennsylvanians not realize that McCain's position on cap and trade is the same as Obama's?
 
22Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:12 		It was Sludge - teaches state at Texas Tech
 
23Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:22 		Truman lost in '52.

Truman didn't run. Adlai Stevenson was Ike's victim(and again in '56).
 
24Baldwin
      ID: 201045320
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:23 		Ahh, that was the other one.

According to the WSJ...

Battleground states in a dead heat and too close to call...

FL, MO, NC, OH.

States that have recently moved within reach for McCain...

Unexpectedly CO, NV, MN [which I find incredible]

States that should have been within reach and tho conceivable, surprisingly looking like longshots...

PA, VA
 
25man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:39 		Thanks, jack. Thanks Pancho.
 
26Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:47 		All Obama needs to win are the Kerry states, New Mexico and Virginia. If he gives up Minnesota, he'd have to find 10 EV's somewhere else. He has a lot of places to find them. Basically, McCain has to win damn near every swing state to make it close. And if he loses PA and VA, he's probably toast.
 
27boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:57 		how about some predictions on what time the concession/victory speeches will be at.

I am going to say race over by 11 eastern, with speeches around 11:30.
 
28sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 16:59 		10pm Eastern, its called and by 10:40, McCain gives his concession/congralutory speech. By 11:00, Palin is on a plane to Alaska, never to be heard from again on the national level.
 
29man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 17:04 		Kind of an interesting sidebar:

Keep an eye on world stock futures later this evening to see how they respond to the new President: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

Early indications are that the world financial markets are optimistic about Democratic rule. The myth of Republican financial superiority appears to have been shattered along with conservative zeal for unregulated free market idealism.

 
30man
      ID: 511027116
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 17:22 		Right on, Sarge. Haha. Their party is such a mess right now that I won't count her out completely, but if they know what's good for them, they will move on to an intelligent moderate.

I think we will know the winner, for all intents and purposes, at 4:00 PST, when VA goes to Obama. Thirty minutes later, Ohio and NC. At 5:00 sharp, they call PA and MI for Obama, and maybe FL or Missouri. CNN will call the race by 6:00 PT/9:00 ET, IMO, when the polls close in CO and NM.

So McCain should concede by 10:00 EST, and Obama will accept by 10:30, to make prime time.

 
31Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 17:46 		According to CNN, 72% of new voters are voting Obama.
That should feed Baldwin's indoctrination theories.
 
32Pancho Villa
      ID: 51546319
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 18:46 		I don't really want to go here, but they say a million people might show up at the park where Obama's holding his rally tonight in Chicago.

If McCain wins....???

Wouldn't want to be a Chicago cop tonight in either case.
 
33tree on the treo
      ID: 361053417
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:02 		a million people.truly would be amazing. and mind blowing. I can't even imagine...is that more than the pope would draw?

at 8 am, my polling place stretched down the block, around the corner, and down the street to the next avenue...

at 6 pm, the line was barely out the door....i was in and out in 15 minutes....

my district - largely white, irish, and single family home owners - had two people in front of me in line....

the other local districts - mostly indian and hispanic and renters or owners in large apartment buildings - had incredibly long lines...

interesting to see...
 
34sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:03 		I went about 10:15 or so this morning. I was nr 11 in line. 15 minutes later, I was on my way ouot the door.
 
35Boxman
      ID: 571114225
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:05 		10pm Eastern, its called and by 10:40, McCain gives his concession/congralutory speech. By 11:00, Palin is on a plane to Alaska, never to be heard from again on the national level.

I disagree on the Palin comment, but otherwise yeah.
 
36sarge33rd
      ID: 99331714
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:15 		Democrats all across the country, hope I'm wrong with that Palin comment.
 
37Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:28 		Although the current tally doesn't show it, based upon where the votes to counted are from, McConnell looks good.

McCain ran much better than expected in Eastern Ky - wonder how that extrapolated to Western Pa?
 
38Razor
      ID: 141049220
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:21 		I love watching this on Fox News. Hume looks like he is giving a eulogy.

I am going to go celebrate. A great day for America.
 
39tastethewaste
      ID: 361039411
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:23 		nbc calling ohio to obama
 
40Myboyjack
      Dude
      ID: 014826271
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:46 		Glad to see Liz Dole go. Her move to make the national drinking age 21 was one of the most misguided, unconservative campaigns ever.
 
41DWetzel
      ID: 33337117
      Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:59 		Good news for azdbacker: he can probably take all those McCain bets he placed and set them off against other gambling winnings?