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| Posted by: cab
- Donor [10541722] Mon, Aug 13, 23:17
Thought everyone who doesn't read the message boards that race entries will be extended until 6.00pm Thursday, due to the update of stables being late...
(The message on the Sim boards)
User: billgulch
Comments:
To All:
I am extremely sorry about last night's update. I obviously missed something. I am leaving work early today to get things updated properly. That should take place about 4:00 - 5:00 PM today. Also, I am extending entries through Thursday at 6:00 PM so everyone can enter properly.
Please accept my appologies. Thank you.
--Mike
Whether everything else will be a day late is another question!!
The Clam has come up sharp again already...I can never seem to get him sharp for when i want to!!...I can't interpret what this means really...He is not running his races out fully?(He has always come back RTG)..He really does want to go longer?..He has not reached his full potential yet?....Who knows..I guess i will find a race and see what happens..Maybe a 8.5f or 9f race...Unfortunately there are no Starter Allowances that i can fit him into..
The long awaited first race for Chief Coy(For me anyway) is happenning this week as well...After his injury,it has taken a while to get back to the track...He is only RTG, but he has been for a couple of weeks now...I don't know that he will come up sharp...
A total of 11 going round this week..Mostly nags-lol-but hopefully can pick up a cheque or two... |
| | | 1 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 14, 00:06
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Cool. I'll be looking to see the primo Gurupie horse going at it this week :).
I've got 13 nags Sharp, and, honestly, I'm having a dickens of a time trying to find places for them. I think I'm going to eat a lot of travel costs (and therefore waste some races without getting any points) just to position some horses, and to experiment with some others. Highlights to look for (what I'm excited about anyway):
Brown Bro has a couple of races that she should be a real lock to win. We shall see. . .
Elocat's Boys cranked a mid 94 LTO, and because I put him in a 3,500 claimer a few weeks ago (and he wasn't snagged) he's got a 3,500 tag. Thus, he's headed off to Pennsylvania to race against ex-Madman horse Diver J. B.!!! Elocat better kick Diver's rear.
Arctic Government is going to make his first Allowance appearance as a 3yo for me. Hard to say what his ceiling is. My hunch is that he won't ever break 90. But my hunch was also that he wouldn't bury a field and cruise to an easy MSW win with an 86 speed, either. He's got the breeding. It's going to take a few races to see what he can and cannot do. . .
Agriculture Bomber Can this guy make a career in the marathons? I hope so. I think he was one of the first real "Gurupie" runners, in the sense that his allowance race win a long time ago was advertised in the early days of this forum, and I hope you guys made money off it. He's still one of the higher earning Gurupie horses with $43,900. Not great, but not bad. Especially since he's never gone better than 84.
Paul's Beats What am I going to do with this horse. I know I can get this guy to run 90's on turf. All the data points to it. . . Sigh. Not sure I'll force the issue this week. He also needs to have his endurance tested, and has great dirt ability I could use this week. Haven't decided what to do with him.
Pay Sal Impeccable breeding on this 3 yo M, but he's been trained horribly in the past. I'm not even sure where to begin with him. I'm basically starting him from scratch, since all of his past racing records are worthless in terms of figuring out where his abilities lie. 50K claimer, he could really, really backfire. But he's shown flashes of ability, and with that breeding, anything is possible.
Alyrun Wing You know, I just looked at this horse's breeding and his race history and went "Duh!" He's never been tried at very short races!!! But he's got sprinter written all over him. Hmmm. He ran a 98 for me at 6f . . . if he can do that at 5f, he might sneak another allowance win. Or better yet, he might crank 100 . . . Going to be interesting to watch. Maybe this wasn't such a stupid claim on my part, afterall.
And then I've got a lot of horses I'm not super happy with. Stinky the Urban who didn't card last week; Burglar Wanting who showed some minor turf ability, but not what I was hoping for; St. Nightmare (gb) who could quickly turn into a nightmare for me. I'm dumping him into some claimers ASAP.
Overall, this week is showing me that I'm starting to get some real depth in my stables. I still have a long way to go, don't get me wrong. But these are my worse horses. Week after this one will have Tow's Terms going at it (low tag mid 90 speed recent claimer), Jericho Velvet again, Straight Time (who I still think I can get to repeat that 97), etc. My Rotciv stables are totally falling apart. I'm down to 6 runners there, and one of those is a total joke (just bought him in the auction to have a marathon horse for a specific 5K CPU race that will be coming up). Rotciv has my best 2yo -- Snow Storm -- who looks like he'll be in my barns for awhile. But other than that, yeeesh. . .
I think the moral of the story here -- for those still drafting newer stables -- is to stick with the 3 or 4 year old horses in the draft. The strategy of getting the older horses and then possibly using them as male broodmares was very flawed. Getting a solid 3yo runner in your barn has a position locked up for several years. 7 year olds just tend to be over the hill. . .
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| | | 2 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 14, 00:08
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Oh yeah. And I almost forgot my "disabled list" - - which is starting to recover. Rakida's Plug is back to "little groggy", and so is Sutter's Creek (2yo) and Our Nooses. I'm putting Our Nooses right back into claimers. A 93 speed lead horse isn't going to cut very much in the sim. . . Although he has a very attractive tag, so I will use that if I can. . .
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| | | 3 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 14, 11:52
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I took out a couple of stable reviews right in front of you guys. Hopefully that will help. Toral2 is now #2 on the list, and cab isn't too much farther behind. For obvious reasons, I won't review Gurupie stables. Better to get another opinion, IMO.
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| | | 4 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Wed, Aug 15, 00:09
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Thanks Madman..Am at the top of the list now..:)
You were right about finding All. races for 2yo's(you mentioned this when i claimed Chief coy)...There area couple of stakes races with very few entries(although people are shy when it comes to entering their horses early in stakes races i have noticed)...maybe i will chuck him in there!..Throw him in the deep end, so to speak...There's not a lot of difference between All. entries and stakes entries anyway...By this i mean there are equally as many good 2yo's in all. races(even nw3l,nwx1 etc) as there are in stakes races and the same applies to not so good 2yo's....Decisions,decisions..lol...It's much easier to decide where to place maidens!!..lol...
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| | | 5 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Thu, Aug 16, 13:00
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It's Sixth Deputy week again. I've entered him in 0108. It is a 53K Allw. NW3L, 6f turf.
I like this race, because it is not too far from BC, and is a turf test at a distance he has already run on dirt. Not sure how accurate the sim is with Sunday Silence, but he has bred some stakes horses on turf, and at longer distances. We'll see what happens.
If anyone has other suggestions, post them here before 6 pm, otherwise 0108 is the race.
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| | | 6 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Aug 16, 14:40
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JKaye -- Sunday Silence is a moderate main-track influence in the sim. When you couple him with a turf dam-sire, you might get a turfer. But without that, there's not a lot of hope. But you should always test, anyway, so I like the race.
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| | | 7 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Thu, Aug 16, 20:47
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Ouch. This is going to be a bad week. I knew I was having trouble finding races for my nags, but ouch! I've got to hope that a bunch of horses have something extra saved away!
Check out race 5211, however. Kangaroo Minstrel v. Agriculture Bomber at 10f on turf! Gurupie battle extraordinaire!
I think Kangaroo is the odds-on fav, but I hope Aggy B. can at least give a good race.
Good luck everyone!
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| | | 8 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Thu, Aug 16, 23:32
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The Clam goes round in Iowa this week(1915)...rated as fighting for 3rd again by the cpu at 6/1...I tried to find the race more suited to running styles more than anything else...Wether i haved selected the right race, i am not sure...In theory, he shouldn't be fighting with other front runners this week...Most of the other runners are closers...The 2 favs probably lean toward sprinting rather than routes though...
To be honest,i am not entirely sure about running styles...I figure if he goes out quicker than the rest of the field by himself ,he shouldn't have to burn as much energy(as apposed to having other front runners in the race) and therefore have some petrol left in the tank going down the stretch when the others are closing..I am leaving the jock select alone btw!
(did that make sense???...lol)
The step up in distance has been put on the backburner for a wee bit longer...
Chief coy is in a NW3L all. for 2yo's in BC(6915)5/1 odds ..It's been a long time since he raced and is RTG so not really holding my breath...
Sparky brush(2402-10/1), Our idols(7012-6/1),Jay theatre(7009-23/1), Crowded for water(2311-16/1)and Girlfrind parking(1310-7/1) are all competing in MSW races...Sparky and Idols probably have the best chances out of this group...
Prince beau(1707-5/1) ,Hick succeeding(5003-7/2)explosive miner(2805-5/2) and Red sal(4004-18/1)are in high tag claiming races...Prince beau and Red sal raced last week and both come up sharp again..Neither of them fired a shot at all last week,so hopefully this week...
Having favs or near favs is not ideal in claiming races really(imo anyway!)...I suspect they attract more attention from prospective buyers..
Good luck to everyone this week...It's going to be frustraing waiting an extra day for the races to be run!!(i am assuming there will be a one day delay...I haven't seen anything to the contrary yet)
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| | | 9 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 01:53
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Cab I just asked zgreat about the race thing. He said that he thinks they'll be run on Saturday, but he's not sure. . .
I have bad news for you -- if I didn't know you, I'd be putting a bid in for Prince Beau. Of all the horses who have sub 5K tags, he has the 4th fastest turf speed among all horses up for claiming this week. That 3,500K tag is seriously juicy . . . I hope he doesn't get snagged from you. He is running for a high tag this week, so you might be safe -- no one else in the sim knows that he's the 4th fastest turfer with a sub 5K tag going this week. (hopefully they don't read this post!!)
If he survives this race in your stables, start hitting the low-tag 8.5f or shorter turf races with him, and you'll score some points. Of course, there aren't many of these . . . So he's not necessarily the MOST attractive horse. But I like variety in my stables.
CLAIM TIP from MADMAN:
The top "LOTTERY PICK" Nag:
Perfect Ground (Gb) from 4106 (2.5K)
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| | | 10 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Fri, Aug 17, 06:59
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Oh dear....I better keep my fingers crossed for the next couple of days...I put him in that race because he raced there LTO...I wonder if i should put a claim in for him?? can you do that?..Thanks for letting us know about the reviews btw Madman...
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| | | 11 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Fri, Aug 17, 11:18
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Seems a bit odd about Sunday Silence. In Japan, he has mainly sired turf champions.
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| | | 12 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 11:59
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cab -- I'm guessing it's 70-30 that he'll make it. The odds are in your favor. Honestly, I don't know whether I'd put a claim in for him or not -- but his name definitely popped out as one of about 20 or so potentials.
But, and I don't think I can emphasize this enough -- I have some incredibly unique information available to me.
I just wrote a program that pulls down all the claim horses each week. It then (from Excel) pulls in all the speed data from the Access database (horses.mdb) from the SSS! It takes about 25 minutes or so, max, to run. It even tells me when the horses current tag will expire :)
This afternoon, I'm going to adjust it so that it also visits the SRF and pulls in sire, dam-sire and dam-dam-sire info.
NORMALLY, you can squeak horses like Prince Beau through higher tag claimers. But there are a few reasonably savvy people like me that don't care about the tag he's running for -- they only care about the low-tag that he has!
This is probably my #1 claiming trick once your stables go over 20 races. I've gotten several low-tag starter allowance horses this way -- even when I'm not at the same track. The only thing I can think of is that I'm the only one who's put in claims for these guys!
For example, Jericho Velvet (25K price tag, but a 5K tag for 8 more months), Tow's Term's, etc.
The good news is that you'll get points from him.
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| | | 13 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 12:08
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Hahahaha. Maybe this will make you feel better, cab -- I got this message from zgreat today (we're on the same team in an ASR Team competition).
"Given the fact that you are probably the best equipped player in the sim to obtain horses for specific purposes ..."
he went on to discuss some strategy issues that are irrelevant to this discussion here. I've shown zgreat some of the things I've been able to do with claimers and stuff; I think zgreat has a good feel for the sim, so if he makes a statement like that, I accept it at face value. He knows almost all the old-timers and all the dangerous players, I think.
And I should note (one more time) that this is how I found Prince Beau -- I was looking for turf runners with sub 5K tags who were running for prices above 5K this week. I wanted to make sure that the tag would last at least 3 more months; further, I wanted a horse that was proven capable at at least 8f on turf, and preferrably who didn't have a proven failure at route races beyond 8f.
And boom, Prince Beau's name jumped to the top of the list. But I don't think anyone else in the sim is capable of doing that sort of analysis -- let alone in 2-3 minutes or in a week in which the claim-search process is cut by 24 hours :).
I'll publish my claim program FOR GURUPIES ONLY if I can figure out how to get the lineage information working and also how to post it very well. Tiny little program. Big little punch.
Meanwhile, I've got to go look for a 12f+ Dirt specialist with a sub 7.5K tag . . . :)
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| | | 14 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Fri, Aug 17, 12:50
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I let my daughter go through the claimer races this week by herself and she came up with perfect ground as her #1. She actually came up with a couple of good ones that I'm putting claims on too. Hope she gets perfect ground to go with kingdom blushing last week. She only put in for 1 race this week and got shut out even though she had over 50 activity points. Didn't even make the back up race. hmmm. Guess the number of points really don't figure into it. High Heels from the gurupie stable got in the first choice with only 9 activity points.
I have several races going this week. Have 1 favorite in a claimer and then Hero Grub is a near favorite. Hopefully I can return to the winners circle this week. See you there.
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| | | 15 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 13:01
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StLCards -- figures. I spend hundreds of hours programming and analyzing and computing.
And then an 11 year old kid comes along and makes the same #1 pick!
Geez! :) Good luck.
Not getting races early isn't a problem -- just have to watch that cash-flow. Most important thing is to get a few good claim horses. And you've got a start there! Although Perfect Ground is better than Kingdom Blushing, IMO. Perfect Ground is about as good as you get. In fact, the Ground is basically Perfect. At least as far as I see it. :)
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| | | 16 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Fri, Aug 17, 13:05
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I agree about perfect ground. A female even, in the money 3 times. Another pick she came up with was six river #50492.
Good luck to everyone this week. BTW, she is only 10 going on 11 next month, but she is very bright. Loves' sim games like roller coaster tycoon.
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| | | 17 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 18:44
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RCT is a great game. Perfect for all ages. One of my favorite games of all time, actually. It reminds me of how far other games fail, actually. Too bad Chris Sawyer isn't going to come out with another expansion pack.
________________
If I had a new stable, six river would be one I'd put into my claim list. Very cheap, and excellent breeding. Don't count on her going very far, however. Saratoga Six is a sprinter all the way. In 18 months, however, you'll have a great breeding prospect there.
Another cheapie that I'm avoiding as a 20+ race stable is Whatson H. 1205. Sexy Halo in 2415 is another candidate. Port Kris in 7207 is also tempting as a turfer.
Sounds like your kid has a great handle on things, StLCards. Only this is -- it's going to be freaking embarrassing when she gets a Grade 1 Stakes win and I'll still be sitting here without a plain old Stakes winner :)
I'd be pretty hopeful about Six River. 3 year old like that -- very sweet. Although I think Perfect Ground is so untested that the upside could be limitless. Whereas Six River is "only" a very reliable very, very good pick. If you get my drift.
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| | | 18 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Fri, Aug 17, 18:53
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madman - that post the other day in the sim was hillarious - the one about the mafia - too funny. People really do need to chill a bit don't they.
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| | | 19 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 23:24
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Hahaha. Glad to know someone enjoyed it.
And notice that Mike still hasn't told us where he was during JFK's assassination :)
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| | | 20 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Fri, Aug 17, 23:43
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Cab -- I'm worried about the clam. I was looking at that race for betting ops, and yeeouch. Lot's of quality there. Hope he does indeed break free early. Because if he doesn't, that could get ugly. Although you have a nice post position.
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| | | 21 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 447461620
Fri, Aug 17, 23:47
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I welcome myself back! After many moons away from civilization, my computer is finally back, with oodles of hard drive space available and upgraded to Windows 98. Congrats to Madman for that acknowledgement from zgreat. zgreat won the betting contest last week (I finished 70th in my first try :( ) so he sure knows the sim. I sure hope that *special* gurupie claimer programme makes it. Re above discussion, Six River is my number 1 claim in 2 stables, including toral, which is +50 races but has a horse going in Jersey tomorrow.
11 horses from my stable going tomorrow. Since I finally have some time at the keyboard, let's look at them in boring detail.
Poor Alywagon. (41913) Son of Danzig, a horse in whom I put great hope, he descends to the ranks of $5K maiden claimers in 2009 in Indiana. He's 3-1 but I don't even expect him to win this 6f sprint. With over 50 races run now and a sustaining (but not spectacular) money situation, I should probably send him to the auction, but as long as he can run back at the same track in cheap claimers, I'll probably keep him around. Too sentimental I guess. Hmmm -- looking at his record, I have been dumb -- he needs to go 9 or 10 in MCs before I abandon him. He did score a 69 in his only fast miler and can probably win a race before I pull the plug.
Marisela (21669) made it into the only (I believe) turf MSW for 3-year old fillies this week -- that's a diminishing species. She's 8-1. She hasn't finished worse than 4th for me in 3 outings, and I don't expect her to tomorrow. I'd like to get her a win while she can still compete against 3-year olds.
Talk about being over one's head! Yielding turf specialist-designate Earl Gal goes off at 71-1 in a straight allowance in Nebraska 2310.he's clearly outclassed, but only Barefoot River of the classy horses has raced well on the yielding stuff in the DRF PPs. If I was more venturesome, I'd put a show bet on Earl.
Courage Jess (12-1) tries the 2-mile starter circuit for $11.4K in Michigan. Like Madman, I concluded after hitting 20 races that starter horses were one good possibility for filling vacant stable slots, although I haven't refined it to the extent Madman is. In particular it's obviously vital to know how long the low-tag eligibility lasts. Well, once I get downloading.... There are better horses in the field, but CJ is known to be able to go 16f without breaking down; that can't be said of all the horses preferred in the ML.
More of this dullness later....
Toral
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| | | 22 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 00:29
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Toral -- Congrats on your return! Good to have you back. I fear that you're going to get the better of me in two races. Elocat's Boys is over-matched in Wyoming against Chief Tom. Lots of good off-track runners in that thing. Guess we all had the same idea :).
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| | | 23 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 00:32
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BTW, I wouldn't recommend putting money on Earl Gal, despite the off-track thing. There are some seriously high quality horses in that race, and a few that I think will do OK in the mess.
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| | | 24 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sat, Aug 18, 00:50
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I've got one OT entry. Forty Six Champ running in NB. Was going to go back to claimers but noticed his race of 76 in slop before. I notice Crowded for Water in this race (Pepe31) that's a gurupie owned stable isn't it? good luck to all.
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| | | 25 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sat, Aug 18, 06:23
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That's one of mine STL...She was a flop in the slop LTO so i don't expect much from her...I didn't realise it had been raining in Nebraska this week...
Good to see you back Toral...Hope everything is back to normal now...
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| | | 26 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 13:08
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This delay is killing me. I wake up early to see if I want to do any bets. I putz around until race time.
No races. So I visit the message board, only to find out that this time, a notice was posted saying that races would be two hours late.
So, I putz around some more. Now, it's two hours late, and still no races.
WHY OH WHY? My nags are going to get slaughtered. Why do I care?????
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| | | 27 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 447461620
Sat, Aug 18, 14:40
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Races up!
Rather a miserable day at the Toral Multicomplex, with disappointments all around. At least I got to watch it from home! The one shining light in the series of washouts was toral6's first win, by Senor Lightning in a cheap MSW at 6813. I might have placed The Senor in an event with a bigger purse, but this stable is cash-short and the $6K will come in handy in making claims for this stable which has only 6 races. Without the cash, I would be limited to $4K claimers next week (assuming I don't get one of my $4K claimers today). Next week should be huge (in implications, not necessarily results) for toral6; I can't access the riding options right now because of updating, but I think I have 6 horses prepping for 1131.
Disappointments by Kangaroo Minstrel, Napkin Kicking and Chief Tom will leave me taking a look at what I can realistically plan to do with these older gents. Suggestions welcomed.
Hope you had a better week!
Toral
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| | | 28 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 15:59
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Toral -- I was rather shocked by Kangaroo's performance, myself. He should have been up there with Aggy B., and others at the very least. It really looks like his max is at 8.5f. Strange for a horse with that lineage. It's also possible that those races are flukes, too.
I'd go for an 8f dirt test NTO. And then do a sprint. Afterall, you might have a freak of nature here. Just because you're bred to have endurance doesn't mean that you do. But yet you know this horse has SOME speed . . .
Chief Tom's race was just brutal. That Wyoming crowd was a bunch of well-placed horses from trainers who knew what they were doing, IMO. You either have to keep doing to same old same old with this horse, give him a turf try, or let him go. Personally, I'd put him into higher tier claimers. Crafty Prospector lineage will attract some attention, and you can foist him off on someone for 30K or something, I bet. (as you can tell, my perspective on what makes a good horse has changed quite a bit from a couple months ago when I ranked Chief Tom one of our top horses!)
Napkin Kicking doesn't like slop. Otherwise, he's been very reliable for you. He can get that NW1x win in sprints. And you can experiment to see if he can go 8f.
_____________________________
My nags this week . . . 14 runners, 1 winner (ouch) 4 2nd's, 4 3rd's. Rather Mundane.
Best speed ratings:
Alyrun Wing said that, yes, he can really sprint. His second 97+ speed rating for me . . .97.6. Unfortunately, without conditions, that isn't great. Going to get his sub 6f test in sometime soon.
Bart Accordian A recent 2K claimer, he just cranked a 94.5 in a CPU restricted dirt sprint for me. He'll be an adequate scorer in very restricted races from 6-8.5f on dirt, I think. He's the 13th horse in my barns to break 90.
Pay Sal Wow. 89.3 from this 3 yo homebred, just because I showed him some loving kindness. This is 25 points better than LTO under previous management. He has impeccable breeding, but was continually abused. Therefore, I didn't think he'd been given a fair shake. Jury's still out on whether he was worth the 50K and 10 breed points I spent on him. Red Ransom x Sadler's Wells x Mr. Prospector is his breeding. I couldn't pass a homebred up with that track record. Nice 3rd place finish gets him back into the States.
Note: My breeding points per race probably stunk this week, because I was transferred a bunch of horses a long way to either move them, or occasionally just to put them in a position to score. What a waste. But for guys like Pay Sal, I plan to keep him on this side of the Atlantic (dirt preference).
Others:
Agriculture Bomber Continues to show some heart, although he's not that fast. Snuck a 3rd place finish in 5211. I AM going to get this horse another Allowance win! He deserves it. Gurupie winnings now stand at $45,308 for him.
Arctic Government disappointed bigtime in a weak open allowance race in Washington. 68 speed at 10f -- ouch. He can't handle the distance. Sigh.
Elocat's Boys Someone explain this to me. 75ish. 94ish. 75ish. AAAAARGH. Back into claimers you son of a gun.
And in all this, where was my win, you ask? Burglar Wanting, a $7.5K auction pickup, won a 15K Maiden Claimer race with a speed of -- get this -- 64. He won by 1/4 of a length, so it's not like he was running away and then decided to jog home. Glad I snuck a win from this bad boy. Now it's to the lowest tag C2L races.
But these Claiming wins count for a LOT. The ability to pick up a horse for zero breed points, and then turn him into a 17 point scorer this week (after scoring 10 two weeks ago), is HUGE for a stable. You need horses like this to rack those breed points . . . And his winnings of $10K have more than paid for my initial $7.5K investment. So I'm happy. Although my hope that he'd take off and run away with things on turf didn't pan out, obviously.
Elsewhere in the sim . . . the following Madman horses were running for other stables . . .
East A La Run . . . lost for 25K gets his clock cleaned by Madman999's Paul's Beats (10K claimer). East A La Run still hasn't run within 10 points of what he did for me.
Light Squawking ($2.5K) limps home 12th in an allowance race in a time slower than his maiden win for me.
Alot Under Run (lost for 10K) cranks out a 54. 'Nuf Said.
Diver J. B. ($3.5K) finishes a solid 3rd in a Starter Allowance in Pennsylvania. He actually broke 91 -- running 91.9. YEEOUCH. Although honestly, if you offered me 17 breed points to run him in the claimer where I lost him -- AND if you told me he could run 91.9 in dirt sprints -- I'd still have entered him in that claimer. 90-92 speed dirt sprinters with low claim tags are a dime a dozen.
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| | | 29 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 16:03
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Oops. East A La Run gets his clock cleaned by Madman999's Zarb's Pass, still a 10K claimer. Paul's Beats ran in that tough Wyoming race against Chief Tom.
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| | | 30 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sat, Aug 18, 16:04
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A day of seconds for my horses today...Girlfriend parking and Hick succeeding couldn't quite hang on...Explosive miner went okay too, finishing second...It's only his second start on the grass and went 82 for the mile...Room to diversify from him maybe(IF i don't lose him)...Our idols also ran second...
The Clam bombed..The whole field kicked at the 4 furlong mark and just ran all over him..I guess my "finding a race based on running styles" theory should be put in the book as another failed experiment!(i spent a bit of time monitoring the entries for the various races too!!...:) )
Chief coy went okay(61sp/5th)..I ran him at 98%, not knowing what might happen after a long layoff..
Jay theatre and Sparky brush were the only ones (aside from the clam)who finished further back than 6th...A wee bit of a dissappointing days' racing but not toooooo bad i guess...
Claims don't appear to be up yet...fingers are still crossed!...
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| | | 31 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sat, Aug 18, 17:14
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cab well, I dunno. I think race styles are one component. But check out my post #20. He was up against some SERIOUS contenders in that race. The quality of competition is probably more important than anything else.
As you know, I think Clam is perhaps the top Gurupie horse. But, unfortunately, Gurupies don't rule Horseracing like they rule Smallworld.
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| | | 32 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Sat, Aug 18, 19:31
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A good day for the stlcards stables. Hero Grub grabs a win, French Iron runs a nice 2nd on the turf, Celtic Connection wins his claimer race with no problem. Those are the highlights. Also had a 4th, a last and somewhere in betweem IIRC. Kind of pressed for time so just a quick synopsis.
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| | | 33 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 447461620
Sat, Aug 18, 19:55
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Madman Thanx for the advice. I'll definitely take it re Kangaroo, not necessarily NTO, but sometime when he's sharp and
no race seems to fit. I may move him into a turf sprint in 1145. Like you said, I expected him to be able to go longer. If he can handle 7f, or even 6f, as well as 8f, there's still something to be made of him. I still like Chief Tom as a niche horse, but that could be sentiment talking. At the very least I'll wring one more win out of him before I put him into claimers. There are enough low-CPU value allowances in his area to make him worthwhile even as an off-and-on horse -- I think. So my heart says anyway.
Toral
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| | | 34 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Sun, Aug 19, 00:14
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A bad week % wise ITM for me, but Light Award ran a 98.6 and won a 53K Alw race! It was his first try on turf--in the same race Sixth Deputy, who ran 90 debuted on turf--and it was a success.
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| | | 35 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 02:04
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Congrats JKaye. In the long run it's more important to have a couple of quality runners. You'll cycle throw the non-successful types . . .
I just calculated my new ITM% . . . it's risen to a cumulative 41.7%. About 6 weeks ago, I think it was around 34%. I've been racking up the top 3's. And if you look at it, I've been doing this primarily because I'm now starting to recycle the successful claimers I've had in the recent past. Bear in mind that this was an OFF WEEK for most of my quality horses that have been around longer or were draftees (Private Count, Sal at the Bell, Skin Jumping, Light Jupiter, etc.):
A quick rundown to maybe help you guys struggling to get your ITM up -- trying to illustrate my tactics for doing it:
5th from Paul's Beats in a doggone tough Wyoming allowance race (with Chief Tom). He'd been top 3 last two times out on turf. Picked him up awhile ago -- attracted to 97 dirt speed in deep past, and he had clear turf ability. Looking for a turf sprinter, and he's OK.
Buda U. -- Original draft horse, but I'm not wasting time with him. He's sticking to claimers, and whatever tag is close to home. Finished 2nd against mediocre company. When you have stable depth (Madman4 -- the stable with this guy -- has 5 other proven 94+ speed runners all with low tags or other conditions left, and at one other studette -- Brown Bro), it's very easy to hope that these sorts of horses get claimed from you to make room for the newer blood :) Although I'd keep this guy for another race or so if it was up to me.
Bart Accordian -- Perfect example of an adequate claimer. Not studly. Tried to get a 9f or 10f starter allowance horse out of this guy. After 1 race, it's clear he doesn't have the goods. So now he's going to make do with the 2K claim tag and mid 90 speed at 6-8.5f. This is a no-lose sort of claimer. I'm now 1/2. This illustrates the basic principle -- claim horses with a goal; test that goal; if they fail, immediately back off and determine if the horse has any other uses. If so, use it. If not, go back into the rat race for another.
Brown Bro -- I'm very proud of this pick. Nice turf marathons, but not super. I noticed that she was faster on dirt at 8f, but untested in dirt marathons. Viola! This babe is going to be a serious monster in dirt marathons. Hopefully this is the last time she runs on turf for awhile. I just wanted to check. Note the common theme here -- quality horses can still score ITM when running "experiments". Here -- she finished #2 in a 14f turf race. 2/2 ITM, and I could see 10 or 12 straight ITM finishes from her.
Arctic Government A draft horse. These guys kill your ITM. No way around it. I did a 10f distance test. He failed. But it was a small field, so finished #4. He's zeroed in on the 7-9f distance on dirt now, so ITM should increase. Can't dump a Miswaki progeny, for better or worse.
Agriculture Bomber A draft horse. He's largely a known quantity by now. I want a turf marathon try, however. Had to settle for another 10f turf try -- where his ceiling wasn't known before. 3rd place this week, and adequate ITM. As long as he can do this, I'll keep him in allowance races.
Alyrun Wing I was attracted by upper 90 speed potential, and that's what he's starting to give me. I paid too much for this horse (35K claimer, IIRC). Thus, this was a mistake, although if he would have succeeded at routes like I was initially hoping, this might have been a steal. Make sure your horse has a tag when you make claims. Nevertheless, I think I'm making the best of it by exploring his sharp sprint ability. Note: never TRY for Dirt Sprinters unless the case is OBVIOUS (i.e., Skin Jumping or Light Jupiter). Dirt Sprinters will appear in your barn as the result of failed route or turf tests. Ala Alyrun here.
Elocat's Boys Old time claimer who was a turf experiment. Then he got hurt. Now he's inconsistent as heck, which is hurting my ITM%. This is not the sort of horse you need to claim. Those dirt sprints are deadly, IMO, for ITM. Scary that my ITM is still 9/14 and I'm running horses like this!
Pay Sal An abused horse, 3yo. I always give 3yo's a slight bonus when claiming them. Plus, this guy had breeding. He was an experiment in abused horses, and he shows that if they have the breeding, they can be adequate performers for you. Jury still out on whether he'll be a good acquisition, or one of those horses who brings down my ITM.
Stinky the Urban Low tag claim race. You've just got to cut the rope and put these guys out there to get claimed. That's the bottom line. Here, a 5th finish didn't help my ITM. But that stable slot will open up eventually, and I'll fill it with a claimer.
Zarb's Pass Looking for turf and/or endurance. This guy was an experiment. But he's showing that he's got some usefulness -- 2 of 3 ITM for me, and the miss was a mistake on my part. A key here is that HE HAS CONDITIONS left. I can't emphasize that enough.
Burglar Wanting Some weeks, you'll just have too many stable slots to fill with attractive claim or auction picks. That's when you should pickup horses like Burglar Wanting or Zarb's Pass. This horse hadn't been experimented with appropriately, and he was in Asia. Furthermore, he needed at least two turf tries. This was a pair of gift ITM's. Note here that this sort of acquisition IS NOT FAST. I'll be dumping this horse ASAP into C2L, and then into the auction if I still have him. You use these guys for a few races, and then move on. This is critical.
St. Nightmare(gb) -- My mistake here. I thought he might magically excel at 10f dirt starter allowances. I picked him up for 2K. I QUICKLY realized my mistake after his LTO, and I'm moving on. Put him into a race that I thought he should win (finished 2nd), hoping for some claim points, and a new stable slot.
Yes, he MIGHT come around. But why should I waste MY stable stalls on horses like this? Quick assessment and correction of mistakes is critical. And notice that even then -- my ITM wasn't really hurt! That's because after 1 or two races to test your theory, you can then put the horse back "where you found it" and score some claiming points. Assuming, of course, that your horse has any ability at all. . .
Zinc Dad -- Ouch. Poor Zincy. A Draft Horse.
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Summary:
2 of 5 draft horses in the money. 1 experiment failed. 2 of 4 draft horses placed ITM at their proven distances. I was already trying to cut at least one of the two that failed.
6 of 8 claimers, 1 of 1 auction horses ITM. Elocat's failed, and he's just plain erratic, and I violated my new "No dirt sprinters" rule (easy rule to be tempted into breaking, since they have the fastest speed ratings, and are the most common horse type). The other was Paul's Beats who was just in a doggone tough race (and a dirt sprint. Hmmm. :) ) Things like that happen.
Overall key & summary: Decide where your horses MIGHT be good. DO IT. Dump if the horse fails. Treat each stable slot as if it was precious. Don't be afraid to snag higher priced claimers -- especially when they have low tags. Look for turf horses and routers. (dirt sprinters appear as a result of failed router experiments).
Sorry to be long-winded yet again. But I really think I'm starting to nail this sim down cold. I've been fine-tuning my perceptions with various emails and analysis sharing with zgreat among others.
I've been 60% ITM and 75% in the top 5 since week 1096, earning about 2,000 per race, and with an average of 33% of potential stall spaces being active in any given week (despite injuries). This means that my stables have been close to maximum capacity for the 5 week period -- and as Devil01 illustrates, the more horses you run, the harder it is to keep your ITM% up there. Or, conversely, the fewer horses you run, the easier it is to keep your ITM% high.
I really think I can get my LIFETIME ITM% up to 60% and my lifetime top-5% closer to 90% over time. Because the record over the past 5 weeks really reflects the success of the claimers in the PREVIOUS 5 weeks or so . . . and every week that goes by, I look at the horses I lose and the horses I'm adding, and it's a no-brainer -- the stables are getting deeper and deeper. More importantly, they are getting more and more varied. I have a few solid fillies, a few adequate 2yo and 3yo's, turf sprinters, dirt routers, dirt sprinters. I'm a bit weak on turf endurance at the moment, but I put in for some turf endurance this week. We shall see. . .
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| | | 36 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 02:10
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BTW, for the record, zgreat has been in a slump lately, I think. He's 54% ITM over the past 5 weeks, and around 75% in top 5. Lifetime, he's 58% ITM and 80% in top 5.
Just something for all of us to shoot for. And Racelord (another ASR competitor), maybe the best of them all. Really remarkable placement and evalation abilities. I don't have his records handy at the moment.
And, remember, these guys are doing this while competing in Graded Stakes races. Not this puny Starter and NW1x stuff that I do.
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| | | 37 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 447461620
Sun, Aug 19, 11:42
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Race 2010, a cheap $4K claimer, attracted a lot of attention from Gurupies in the claiming department this week. I put in two claims, in order of preference, for Amad's Spades and Raspberry Bell. Amad's Spades, I see, was snagged by one Rotciv. I got Raspberry Bell. Meanwhile jkaye lost Lt. Benton to gaz6 in the same race and picked up St. George in return.
It will be interesting to follow the comparative tracks of these horses.
Toral
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| | | 38 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 15:30
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Explanation of my claim picks:
Amad's Spades Off-track run at 12f matched 6.5f speed. I put in a bid because he wasn't the favorite and the price was right. Looking for endurance. Now, he's "Layoff!", and I have to decide if I want to keep him. At any rate, I liked turf-endurance potential. I rated him one of those "Return to higher tag claimer" type claims. Plus, Seattle Slew progeny develop later in their careers. That's always a comforting claimer -- when you can snag a horse with a very solid sire like that. In 5 months, I can breed this guy if I want.
Madman999 -- acquired Pro Trick and TizProud, lost St. Nightmare(gb), Stinky the Urban
Pro Trick and TizProud were both sub 5K claimers, as well. Here's what I said about them:
"42254PRO TRICK (0) -- cheap, has conditions, has room to experiment, hopefully not TOO attractive? and 19905 TIZPROUD (0) -- experiment back in claimers. Looks like a solid claim and gettable at 5/1
To elaborate further, Pro Trick had an exceptional 9f race (unreplicated) on turf, and had no "proven failures" in turf endurance races. I figured it was worth a shot, especially since NW1x tag was left. Tizproud is strictly a point-scoring type; unfortunately this 3yo homebred just won his second race IN the claim race, darn it . . .
Tsultress is perhaps my most hopeful claim acquisition. A 3yo Filly from Cee's Tizzy, Seattle Song, Nice Dancer, this horse has gone 86.5 at 8f on turf -- that right there is good enough to win an allowance race (which this filly hasn't done yet). She's proven to be 80 speed capable at 9f on turf, and I wanted to stretch upward on turf. Seattle Song brings endurance, and it's possible.
Hmmm. In post 36, did I say I was looking for "turf endurance" this week or what? :)
Overall, I think I got shutout from some of top quality claimers.
The top horses that I THOUGHT I could still get:
#1) A. P. Mummy. Check out that breeding!! Male broodmare. Others probably had that same idea.
#2) Hickory Deal. Major endurance in breeding.
#3) Summer Pain. He just won a 16f race to prove my point -- I was betting he could run marathons. Unfortunately, now he'll be doing it for someone else :(.
#4) was Tsultress.
#5) Justice Event (gb) -- another one of my abused horse specialties. Although he DID just break his maiden -- in an OPEN claim race of all things.
#6) Amad's Spades and the rest.
Overall, this was going to be a weak week for claimers for me. My "specialty" -- low-tag starter allowance horses running for higher tags -- just weren't out there this week. Even at that, I lost two horses that really had no usefulness OTHER than at 5K or under races, and I acquired 4 that do have some hope to at least be point scorers in higher tag claimers. Very good trade, although not worth my time investment, perhaps.
I see cab kept Prince Beau. Which is a mixed blessing since he didn't do great. . .
Last comment Toral-- Even if Amad's Spades were healthy, I don't think he would have been in my stables that long. Thus, I'm not sure the comparative tracks of these horses will bo too interesting. We'll see.
For the record, I preferred Amad's Spades b/c of Seattle Slew and the aforementioned evidence he could maybe handle 12f on turf or dirt. I'm optimistically projecting around 80 speed for him there. Which, if placed right, can make him a scorer in starters -- especially if he can stretch even farther.
Raspberry Bell has a proven failure at 16f which "tricked me". . . Upon close examination he still could stretch upward. I analyzed 3,000 claimers, and you're bound to miss horses that have potential. I'm also much more attracted to Amad's age and such. I wouldn't recommend spending too much time with Raspberry Bell. He can be a nice point scorer. I'm not sure he's a building-block horse.
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| | | 39 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 15:41
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Dang. Only 9 horses from my barns are Sharp for this next week. I may run a couple of horses RTG, anyway, for various reasons. Yeeeouch.
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| | | 40 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 17:26
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Revised stable stats. Since Fletch hasn't run for several weeks, I see no need to continually repost his stats.
| Stable | Races | W | P | S | W% | P% | S% | ITM% | $$$ | $$$/R | Pts | Pts/R
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| cab | 106 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 28.3% | $189,792 | $1,790 | 310 | 2.92
| | goatlocker | 27 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 11.1% | 18.5% | $20,465 | $758 | 44 | 1.63
| | gurupie | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 29.4% | $38,678 | $2,275 | 46 | 2.71
| | jkaye | 110 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 10.0% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 27.3% | $182,471 | $1,659 | 342 | 3.11
| | madman | 201 | 32 | 33 | 19 | 15.9% | 16.4% | 9.5% | 41.8% | $542,725 | $2,700 | 872 | 4.34
| | stlcards | 71 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 15.5% | $56,645 | $798 | 145 | 2.04
| | toral | 133 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 11.3% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 36.1% | $219,212 | $1,648 | 552 | 4.15
| | Totals | 665 | 79 | 79 | 55 | 11.9% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 32.0% | $1,249,988 | $1,880 | 2311 | 3.48
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| | | 41 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Sun, Aug 19, 17:30
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It's harder to extract the fletch stables from this list, so I'll go ahead and keep them in here for now.
| Stable | Races | W | P | S | Earn | P | ITM% | E/R | P/R | ITMR | E/R R | P/R R | Power
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|---|
| madman4 | 41 | 9 | 8 | 6 | $155,098 | 204 | 56.1% | 3783 | 5.0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6
| | devil01 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | $37,473 | 42 | 55.6% | 4164 | 4.7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9
| | toral2 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | $68,809 | 139 | 43.5% | 2992 | 6.0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 11
| | ggnew | 35 | 6 | 6 | 6 | $107,800 | 161 | 51.4% | 3080 | 4.6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15
| | fletchfarm | 42 | 7 | 3 | 9 | $71,327 | 222 | 45.2% | 1698 | 5.3 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 16
| | rotciv | 60 | 10 | 9 | 5 | $114,718 | 286 | 40.0% | 1912 | 4.8 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 21
| | madman999 | 53 | 6 | 10 | 4 | $137,083 | 214 | 37.7% | 2586 | 4.0 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 27
| | flfarm | 48 | 7 | 7 | 5 | $75,170 | 224 | 39.6% | 1566 | 4.7 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 27
| | ffarm | 36 | 7 | 4 | 4 | $57,433 | 147 | 41.7% | 1595 | 4.1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 27
| | flefarm | 39 | 4 | 8 | 3 | $52,685 | 190 | 38.5% | 1351 | 4.9 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 29
| | madman3 | 47 | 7 | 6 | 4 | $135,826 | 168 | 36.2% | 2890 | 3.6 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 31
| | cab | 39 | 7 | 3 | 3 | $127,877 | 122 | 33.3% | 3279 | 3.1 | 15 | 3 | 18 | 36
| | cab31 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 3 | $40,225 | 119 | 35.5% | 1298 | 3.8 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 41
| | larot | 56 | 5 | 8 | 6 | $83,788 | 202 | 33.9% | 1496 | 3.6 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 41
| | toral | 54 | 4 | 8 | 7 | $66,615 | 211 | 35.2% | 1234 | 3.9 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 42
| | jkaye | 47 | 7 | 2 | 4 | $102,312 | 145 | 27.7% | 2177 | 3.1 | 19 | 8 | 20 | 47
| | sunday89 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 2 | $44,700 | 85 | 25.9% | 1656 | 3.1 | 20 | 11 | 17 | 48
| | glkfarms | 41 | 4 | 3 | 6 | $49,419 | 136 | 31.7% | 1205 | 3.3 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 52
| | goatlockr2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | $12,368 | 18 | 33.3% | 1374 | 2.0 | 15 | 15 | 23 | 53
| | fletfarm | 40 | 2 | 4 | 3 | $39,859 | 137 | 22.5% | 996 | 3.4 | 21 | 21 | 15 | 57
| | jkaye1 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 1 | $35,459 | 112 | 27.8% | 985 | 3.1 | 18 | 22 | 19 | 59
| | stlcards | 35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | $37,603 | 72 | 17.1% | 1074 | 2.1 | 23 | 20 | 22 | 65
| | stlcards1 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | $14,562 | 45 | 22.2% | 809 | 2.5 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 66
| | pepe31 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 3 | $21,690 | 69 | 16.7% | 603 | 1.9 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 72
| | goatlocker | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | $8,097 | 26 | 11.1% | 450 | 1.4 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 76
| | stlcards3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $4,480 | 28 | 5.6% | 249 | 1.6 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 77
| | gurupie | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $1,205 | 4 | 0.0% | 151 | 0.5 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 81
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| | | 42 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Sun, Aug 19, 17:47
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I never saw your post 20 Madman...If i had i wouldn't have wasted all my money betting on him!!!...
I'm pleased i still have Prince beau...Even though he only ran fourth it's still good enough for 9 bp's(7 for finishing 4th and 2 for running at the same track)which is nearly as good as winning an allowance race..Getting bp's was the primary reason i picked him up in the first place...I'm not that convinced that he would be competitive in starter allowances, maybe long turf races...If i remember rightly some of your horses, Madman, are going 90sp or better in starter allowances which i think may be out of Prince beau's league....I'll give him a wee break now anyhow,he's had a fair bit of racing recently....
I will only have 5 going to the track this week...Will have some time to sort out a claim or two this week hopefully ...
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| | | 43 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 20, 00:12
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Madman--I like when you outline your strategies as I try to pick your brain with the game as often as possible. However, I have tried experimenting with low tag, untested claimer--and landing studs like you have--and it has gone very badly.
My current claimers:
sunday89--
Heir Royalty--2,500 tag and had never been tested under 8f. He is bred to sprint so I thought this was a lock. Runs a 66 at 6f dirt an a 60 7f turf.
Alot at the Bait--Has a higher tag of 10K but looked real good. Has run 94 at 10f dirt and has never been turf tested. First try with sunday89 is this week. Crossing my fingers.
jkaye1--
Blonde Broad--Absolutely royal breeding. Claimed for 7500 and I was attracted to the 90 at 5.5. Tried going lower to 4.5 and he producd just 83. Tried turf and 5.5 and produced just 77.
Makt Slakt--What was I thinking? Overpaid big time. Hopefully the 20K gets put to use using him in breeding.
Brother Matt--Ran 88 at 8f. I claim him and he runs 66 at 8f. Can't see where else to test him.
jkaye--
St. George--Got him this week. Fastest time was 78 at 9f. Hoping he can go further??
Was I so off in my ideas for these horses? I really felt confident with Heir Royalty and Blonde Broad. I have hope for Alot at the bait and St. George. With my luck, they won't work out. Tell me what I'm doing wrong though, since Madman seems to be able to pull stars out of hats and I get stuck with--well, low level claimers.
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| | | 44 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 04:24
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JKaye -- well, it's possible I've just gotten lucky, too. Hope not :). It's also possible I'm succeeding for different reasons than I think I am, or that I'm not explaining my logic very well. There are a whole host of different successful strategies to get quality claimers, and I actually rotate around among them. Hmmm. You know, I may just write up some stuff on this issue and post to a website or something. Be a good learning experience. That's for tomorrow. . .
_____________________
Heir Royalty -- Your logic sounded great. But then I looked him up, and you missed a couple of races. He ran a 65.5 on turf in 509 (RTG) and at 6.5f. He ran sprints in 516 and 572, as well. Week 516 doesn't count, because it looks like he got hurt. Either that, or something weird happened. 509 and 572 were RTG. So you'd expect him to do better now. Furthermore, these were as a TWO year old, but 509 and 516 was LATE in the two year old season that year, so it's not as great as you would think.
I did a sire search in the SSS for cohoes -- putting the minimum race qualifier at zero. Hoe Timing is the only other horse that came up, and she's quality, although not super.
One thing that DOES increase your odds for getting a solid horse when experimenting at another distance is quality lineage. Just an FYI.
You can still try very short. Habitat brings some endurance, however, so the lineage isn't pure dead sprint. You might have just gotten a bum horse. Or maybe he really can run in turf sprints, but he just had a bad run. I've had a few that took a couple of races to get going.
________________________________
Alot at the Bait -- Never been turf tested? Are you using the SSS? If so, I really recommend getting all the raceouts. I know it's a pain, but it will keep you from making mistakes like that. He's had turf tests in 89, 152, 187, 215, 341 and 362. Notice that ID's for all horses switched in week 168, so these are indeed the same horses.
At any rate, can he run on turf? Eyeballing, he's not bad. He's about 5-8 points slower on turf, I'd guess. That's about the sim-average, so he's roughly surface-neutral. Given that he's run that 94.3 and another 90.8 at 6.5f, this is a useful speed record. One major problem is that he has 6 wins already. But he's got his NW1x conditions left, so he's A-OK for Allowance runs. All in all, I'd be happy with this pickup. He's a solid horse, and, as you noted, might be able to run turf at 10f or farther. Mixed record at 12f; it's not clear if he can go farther than that or not . . . But 88.2 at 12f is very, very nice. 51 races in the sim - - is that an issue? I dunno. You'll get another 90+ speed rating out of this horse for sure; whether you can get another win remains to be seen. I'd say odds are good.
Blonde Broad I like horses with their conditions left -- like this one. I don't like acquiring dirt sprinters anymore, however, since I seem to end up with them as accidents when trying for other stuff. The 5.5f you tested was off-track, so that's not a fair turf test. Keep that in mind. Many people miss stuff like that -- this horse could be totally different on regular turf. In 28 races, nothing else was close to that 90 speed, however. And I don't see obvious previous mismanagement. It does look like the previous owner set the start % manually; I'd try that next time out with this guy -- 90% -- if the race warrants it. And I'd do another turf sprint or two before you give up. BTW, A1s races can be TOUGH. Big difference between A1x and A1s . . . That also makes a difference. If there are class horses in the race, I think your horse can collapse . . .
Makt Slakt Not sure what you were thinking. This horse still has hope, however. Try C3L's in turf routes. This horse hasn't told you his max distance yet . . . Seattle Slew can go at least 9f, and if he can run upper 70's at that distance on turf, he can snag an allowance win or two in Europe. That's what Aggy Bomber's doing.
Brother Matt Hmmm. Yeah. Well tested all-around. One thing that this reminds me of is that somehow, virtually all of my claimers have a "back-up plan" that allows them to get ITM places. For example, Babified Opposum -- went for routes, didn't work, now he's a 90+ dirt starter horse. Not great (I want better), but he's a reasonable use of a stable slot at the moment. I've blown this rule occasionally if the acquisition was very, very cheap. And bad luck can take away a backup plan (i.e., the claimer wins the race you got him from, which takes away a condition or something).
But probably half of my current claimer crop -- which is still getting ITM's -- is running on their "backup plan" . . . Alyrun Wing, Babified, etc., etc. Maybe that's partly because I tend to go for higher quality speed numbers to begin with; or maybe it's been a subconscious thing I've been doing; or maybe it's been luck. But it's something to keep in mind. . .
You paid 2,500 for this horse. Just dump back into whatever claimer will score you the most points, and move on. No shame in that. Heck, I dumped Prize Smoking into the auction after two failed route tries. I had acquired him for 2K as a claimer, and someone paid $7,500 in auction because of his breeding :) You can't go TOO far wrong with these dirt cheapies.
St. George Yep -- no proven ceiling. Slades was playing with his start%, too -- holding him back early. I wonder if that helps make the distance???? At any rate, there's a chance here. I'm not super familiar with these sires, so I can't say for sure.
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Can I really pull stars out of hats? Hahaha. I dunno. I can tell you that this claim program that I'll post up after Wednesday's races (I need to test one more thing) is pretty danged incredible. Data is a powerful weapon; with this type of information, if I can't find a few gold nuggets lying around, I should be laughed out of the game. :)
You'll see what I mean Wednesday night if you're on-line (and if nothing happens to me in the meantime, LOL). And I recommend finishing out the remaining weeks of the SSS -- this claim utility uses the SSS database, BTW. Without that, well, it's not worth much.
Lastly, it may LOOK like I pull stars out of hats when I snag Brown Bro's or Jericho Velvet's or Skin Jumping's or Light Jupiter's or whatever. But these obvious successes tend to make everyone forget about the Prize Smokings and St. Nightmare's that I acquire and soon regret! The key is to recognize when you make a mistake -- don't force it. There are so MANY solid point scorers out there for the taking that you just can't afford to keep dawgs in your barn. (Or at least, this is the attitude to have to keep your ITM high).
Lastly of the Lastlies (Can I SHUT UP???) -- BETTING IS CRITICAL! You've got to get your net worth up to well over 250K, minimum. I hit a few lucky bets with my stables relatively early. This meant that I didn't have to "pinch pennies" in claiming. This "freed" me up to go for the best horses available. AND, I no longer felt like I had to turn a profit on a horse. So I started to make 25K or 35K claims (like Jericho Velvet or Tow's Terms) and not really worry about it. The money was irrelevant; it was only the 5 or 10 breeding points that made me hesistate. But even then, these horses could win a 5K claim race -- which returns 15. So I could dump these guys and re-coup those breeding points.
What I'm trying to say, is that having a lot of cash around gives you freedom to make rational decisions about claimers. It also frees you so that you can enter the higher-priced claim market, which is critical for 20+ race stables, IMO, since you avoid the new-stable competition, which focuses on 5K or under claimers because of cash constraints.
I've kind of slowed down on the betting thing. I just haven't bothered too much. Madman4 is around 750K, and the other 3 are between 1.75m and 2m. Plenty of cash for travel expenditures and throwing money at claimers. Not enough cash to compete in the auction . . . But that's another story . . .
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| | | 45 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 04:35
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I should add that Jericho Velvet only came up RTG this week, but my ASR Team needs his turf-sprinting ability this week, so he's going to go at it. Probably won't place or run a great speed rating as a result. Hopefully, he'll strut his real stuff sometime in mid September :) After his cruise 96.3 on turf, I'm really anxious to see where his ceiling is in these races. Plus, I do think his dirt options should be re-visited.
Once you show you have the speed, suddenly you have tons of options with horses. But getting that raw ability is critical. Without it, your horse will outlive his/her usefulness in just 2-3 races.
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| | | 46 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 20, 14:54
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Thanks for the response. There have been guys--like Brother Matt--where my main goal was to grab them and put them back into a claim race and get the BP for claim races. It worked perfectly with Lexington Lemon 2 weeks ago, who I claimed, then raced the next week and earned 17 BP. I will likely always have a couple of slots like this.
I hope to be able to avoid having all my claim slots like this. I am sure your claim program will help, and hopefully the couple of horses I got this week and last will pay dividends in the coming weeks.
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| | | 47 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Aug 20, 15:41
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So far I've been trying low claimers. The only two low claimers I've put back into claiming races both won and were both claimed. Neither were exceptional horses. Have not had any luck racing low level claimers in restricted allowance races or starter allowance races until this week. Hero Grub (5K claimer) won a 5k starter allowance race with a 96SP.
allyfarms has claimed kingdom blushing who might be able to win an allowance race or two with proper placement (has run 100+ in the past). this week she claimed Foxy Moment a 4yo female who seems to be running about mid 80's the last 5 races. a low 2.5k starter tag might get some wins.
one thing i wonder in the sim is how age effects speed. any idea where the years break as far as race week #'s go. don't all horses age at the same time? if you assume that a horse will get faster from 2-3-4 then it might well be possible that they mature at different rates as well. some might jump in speed more than others going from 2-3 or 3-4 etc. can we assume that a horse with good breeding at 2yo that doesn't produce will also be a non-productive 4yo if you were to hold themn for 2years?
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| | | 48 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 15:58
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Hey -- check this out. This is the start of a site dedicated to claiming techniques and their evaluation.
I only have the first page -- Claiming Styles up right now. But I think it's a must read. Perhaps it will illustrate what I've been trying to say.
Madman's Claiming Site
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| | | 49 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 16:09
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The way I remember that age stuff is that Jan. 1 was week 900. This is also the date when all horses age one year.
Subtract 365 from 900, and you get 535 -- the cutoff for the previous year. Do that again, and, well, you get the idea.
Mike has programming in improvements in speed ratings throughout the year, however. I think 2, 3 and 4 year olds have all improved to some extent since I've joined the sim. 2 yo's more than the others. Some horses more than others, depending on breeding.
BTW, did I say that Hero Grub was going to be an adequate runner, or did I say that Hero Grub was going to be an adequate runner? ;)
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| | | 50 | JKaye
Sustainer
ID: 4711592917
Mon, Aug 20, 16:09
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Looks great, Madman. Very nice outline of all the different ways you have scored top horses. I especially like the Brown Bro reasoning, and I should probably shift my focus from sprinters anyway since they are harder to get. Of course, I also like the Skin Jumping claim, since I used that claim as a reason for why Heir Royalty could be a steal. I guess if I get another "Heir Royalty" I may end up with a 100 speed horse as well.
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| | | 51 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Aug 20, 16:34
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madman - nice claiming page, noticed one mistake under the experimentation claim, 3d paragraph from the end of the section you say (notice that this is an "abused horses" claim) when you really mean (isn't) an "abused horses" claim
The experimentation claim is one I try to employ, but it is not easy. Finding one that runs all routes and no sprints is almost impossible, that was quite a find. If anything there are probably more route capable horses that have only run sprints. Those races are won with lower speeds and I believe most people are claiming based on speed. I also believe most people aren't using SSS and base the picks on only the last 5 races. I plan to look for some long distance runners to add to my stables soon.
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| | | 52 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 16:35
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JKaye Cool. Right now I'm exporting all the horses in my barns from the SSS to a spreadsheet, and I'm going to list all the claimers in the "Horse Records" section. I'm going to label the reason why I acquired each of the horses, and a grade (A-F) on how well they succeeded, and maybe a bit about why. I'll also grade each acquisition on the same scale, overall.
This way, you can get a feel for how many times I FAIL. Remember, I've got 40 stall spaces, AND I'm willing to dump horses that don't work. Therefore, I've gone through a lot more horses than most of you guys, so I should have a larger quantity of anecdotal successes.
But StlCards, for example, and Cab might be just as good at getting claims as me. They both have acquired 96+ speed horses via claimers. So for fairness of evaluation of these methods, I think I need to approach it more completely.
Unfortunately, I'm not going to track all the horses I WANTED to claim -- only the horses I got stuck with. Just too hard to do all the ones I WANTED to claim. Although that would be fairer.
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| | | 53 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Mon, Aug 20, 16:38
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and no doubt you were right about Hero Grub. I remember you presenting the dosage statistics and saying he would be good. I started looking at the dosage statistics and they seem invaluable to determine the distance based on breeding, that is of course if Mike's algorithm is based on that at all, which I imagine it is. I can't say that I have calculated the dosage stats for my horses, but I know I should. I did read up on how to interpret them and that was hard enough by itself.
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| | | 54 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 17:10
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Well, zgreat says they are worthless. Personally, I'm using the SSS nowadays -- do a sire search and get stats. But I still think they can be OK. I don't look at the dosage index or any of that stuff. I just look at the raw dosage numbers, and how they are distributed. Higher numbers the better, and you want a well-distributed line for success in the sim (at least for anything over 7f).
____________________________
A quick previous of my grades. These include auction horses . . . My record, as I said before, isn't as good as the "stars" would indicate.
Name H.ID. Grade
Admirable Launch 30398 ??
Alyrun Wing 39902 C-
Babified Opossum 27285 F / B
Bart Accordian 8038 B+
Brown Bro 27026 A
Burglar Wanting 36916 B
Casino Cart 18270 N/A
Darn Ballet 7956 ??
Diver J. B. 1400 D / B-
Dixon Queen 25054 B-
Elocat's Boys 35164 C
Jericho Velvet 39269 A / A+
Jinx Understand 18043 A+
Kentucky Project 8003 C-
Light Jupiter 2866 A+
Light Squawking 46598 B
Majestic Yodel 3067 D
Our Nooses 3828 B- / F
Paul's Beats 36020 B
Pay Sal 10800 ??
Prize Smoking 52290 D-
Rate Learn 4320 A-
Royalty Boom 29977 F
Skin Jumping 35877 A
St. Nightmare(gb) 20641 F
Straight Time 19830 C
Tow's Terms 9409 ??
Wishfully Flaunt 13983 F
Zarb's Pass 56301 B / ??
Basic description of grades:
F -- ugh. Wish I had that one back.
D -- humph. That didn't work at all, but could have been worse.
C -- about average for a blind pick. Things didn't work as well as I'd hoped.
B -- A good pickup -- and the sort of thing a claiming stable can make a living off of. Nothing to be ashamed of at all. You'd love to have all "B's", in fact.
A -- Very, very cool.
A+ -- I'd do this again in a heart-beat. About as successful in your niche as you can get.
You're the Teacher Now -- (I don't have this grade yet) horse becomes Stakes quality. Clam is almost this good. I'd just give him an A+ as it stands right now, however.
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| | | 55 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Mon, Aug 20, 17:12
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N/A means Not Applicable, and ?? means too early.
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| | | 56 | cab
Donor
ID: 10541722
Mon, Aug 20, 21:11
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Great articles Madman....
If i may be so bold as to add something that is not necessarily covered in the "experiment" section...Horses that have only had one ,two or three races and are entered in claimers without being fully tried out...One example i had was Sandy bat(7405)....When i picked her up she was a first starter in a sprint...I decided that because she was probably only RTG that i should start again in sprints and then work up in distance...There was only a slight improvement in sp(from 51 to 58)but she was claimed from me...In her next start, the new owner started her in a turf race at 8f and she won!..Another note : In her first race she was one of the favs and when i started her she was also one of the favoured horses by the cpu(despite the fact that there were horses with better sp's,irc)The cpu new something about this horse??) This of course doesn't neccesarily mean she is going to be a superstar but the new owner now has a lot more options to work on...
A lesson i learned here is to do the experimenting in msw(or all. etc) until you are sure that they are not going to perform....I also look for new stables that enter their horses in these races, rather than the more experienced trainers(presuming that the experienced trainers know that this is where these horses belong)
The odds are that you are going to have a lot more misses than hits with these horses (and knowing the breeding lines would improve the odds,which i am not good at!)...But you never know, you could come up with a good one and if all else fails they go back into low level claimers and hopefully get a win there...
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| | | 57 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 21, 01:26
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Cab -- that's an exceptionally important point, actually. And I *DO* follow that precept, but forgot to include it.
Hmm. Actually, that may be THE most important claimer concept out there, to be frank, and I need to put that in the article. Thanks for bringing that up.
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| | | 58 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Tue, Aug 21, 16:27
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Madman - or anyone using SSS. Could you verify a race for me? I'm not sure if the import failed or if there is some screwed up data. Horse 20475 seems to show a speed of 1107.4 in week 1110.
thanks
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| | | 59 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 16:57
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Pharzone czar(gb) ..107.4 , STlCards..
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| | | 60 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 2504849
Tue, Aug 21, 17:11
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Cab, did you try moving the cell size? it looks like 107.4 until I opened it up. thanks
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| | | 61 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 18:49
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I don't touch or move anything unless i absolutely need to Stl!...My computer skills are poor to say the least and so far i have already had to re-load the data several times!..It is well worth it though...
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| | | 62 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Tue, Aug 21, 19:12
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Does anyone have experience running a 3yo on 2 weeks rest (ex. race in week 1117 @ 100% and race again week 1131)? I had training set for week 1138, but he came back sharp this week. Right now I have him entered but set the riding options at 98%. This horse came up injured its first race and I really don't want a repeat. Horse is Hot Republic that got a win on turf in week 1117 with an 89. Actually he might be a she (can't remember)
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| | | 63 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 21, 19:54
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StL -- the import for me showed 107.4. But I also used the original raceout.zip from their site, and renumbered the first race manually in Word. It's possible that Supertoy's version is different. Should be 107.4, I think.
I haven't really tracked running 3yo on 2 weeks rest. But it can be done without problems. Preakness is 2 weeks after Derby, IIRC? Buda won both, so it can be done in the sim, too.
I wouldn't worry about it. Make sure you get a good matchup. And personally, I never go less than 100% unless the horse is out-classed.
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| | | 64 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Tue, Aug 21, 21:12
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Thanks Madman. I will go to 100% as I don't know the full capability of this horse, and I really don't want to be guessing what he "might" have been able to run. Just want to avoid an injury, but hey, them's the breaks, eh?
I'll try to download the raceout files again as I have found some other problems as well, relating to files I downloaded recently.
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| | | 65 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Tue, Aug 21, 21:38
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Well I just downloaded the week 1110 raceout file from Supertoy's site at home and it too shows a 1107.4 sp (first 1 is not visible at first due to the cell width being too small.
Is there another place I can get some of these files? I think race 1103 had a similar problem with at least one of the horses.
Something odd too is I thought I was using the same version of SSS at home and work, but I notice at home that the sire search feature is not there. Is that programmed to be invisible unless the breeding file exists? I don't think I downloaded that at home. At home I have version 3.1 not sure about at work. I might have downloaded the alternate view one that you said was labeled different. Does that not have the sire search feature? jsut wondering.
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| | | 66 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 21:54
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I see what you mean STL. The cell is just big enough to include 4 digits(and the period)...If i did know how to make it bigger it may show the other digit..I just assumed that 107.4 is correct...I have v3.1 btw..
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| | | 67 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Tue, Aug 21, 22:03
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cab - to make it bigger (you can't hurt anything) is just position the cursor at the top of the chart between the SP and PL labels and the cursor will turn into a horizontal arrow. You can then left click hold and drag the cell wider. As long as you don't save anything when you close it it will revert back to the old format when you reopen it. I don't have all the raceouts loaded and I can see it in the 8 column in the W-P-S section. It actually looks like -1107.4 there. No big deal, but it really screws up the averages when searching out what the progeny of different sires run.
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| | | 68 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 22:20
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Oh yeah!...I made it wider and it still shows as 107.4...I don't have the sire searcher though...maybe that is the difference...
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| | | 69 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 3505622
Tue, Aug 21, 22:24
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cab - did you download from Supertoy's archive site?
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| | | 70 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 22:45
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Yep....Except for the very recent ones..I got them from Surf the turf or someone who posted it on the MB, on raceday....I did have one or two problems importing some of them too STL. Not sure why(i thought it was me or this machine i am using)...I think that somehow they corrupted when i downloaded them(not when importing)...So i deleted the faulty downloads and downloaded them again..(There was probably 5 or 6 that i had to redo..907,900 and 795 were some i remember)
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| | | 71 | Madman
ID: 29246911
Tue, Aug 21, 22:48
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Yes, that is very, very bad, StL. Very, very bad.
Yes, the sire search stuff is programmed to be invisible unless you download the breeding.txt file and place that in the C:\enr directory. I didn't want people trying to do it and then getting all confused. . .
BTW, you can always "reset to default" the column widths by right-clicking, and selecting the reset option (towards the bottom of the drop down menu). . .
StL -- you should post this to the main message board and see if Supertoy can answer it. I download my raceouts from the official sim site. Go to "Downloads" and there's a link from there. You have to fix the first race number, however, don't forget.
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| | | 72 | cab
Donor
ID: 14738217
Tue, Aug 21, 23:03
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STL..I meant yep i did download 95% of them from Supertoy's site, if that wasn't clear....
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