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Subject: I'm dunny with Runny - A dear John Letter
Posted by: The Pink Pimp
- [59346179] Tue, Apr 22, 2003, 00:20
Dear Runny,
Thank you Runny for all the points and cash that you
have brought me in the early season. You were my first
draft pick on all of my day late teams and rewarded me
beyond my wildest expectations.
But you were a comet that burned too bright, a flame
whose brilliance drew the attention of thousands of
lemming moths that carried you to unimagined heights
but who now drag you down with the combined weight
of their fickle roster moves. Alas, the best you can do
now is to hold even in value and the most likely path for
you to follow is downward.
You could score 140 points tommorow and I'd still leave
you. But this does not mean that you are a bad man
Runny or that it is your fault. You see the fault is all
mine, for I am a lemming moth myself and am drawn to
the emerging flames I see on mounds across the land
even as your adoring thousands were drawn to you.
I must leave you soon for another flame Runny, one
who I know will not do for me what you have done but I
cannot help myself for I must alight upon them and
hope that I have chosen well.
In time, the fickle wings of your flock will lead them to do
the same and you shall drop deeply in value, but do not
fear that you will hit the ground! For when the time is
right I will return to you and we will try to recapture the
magic that has been with us this young spring.
Until then Runny, take comfort in knowing that you were
my first pick, and that I will always remember our April
together.
Let the Good Times Roll,
The Pink Pimp
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Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
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| 112 | Tony Montana
ID: 243392323
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 14:51
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I think i did the smartest move of any of you. I already had Loaiza, Runny , and Macdougal, and yesterday I traded Macdougal and Runny for Chacon and Woody williams. Today my roster value went up 550k..
Anyone who still has Runny do yourself a favor and get rid of him now. Buy yourself another hot pitcher that can make you some cash. At his current price Runny is over valued, He's not worth that much thus his price is droppings.
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| 113 | beastiemiked
Sustainer
ID: 29145419
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 15:10
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Not sure that picking up a pitcher before he makes a start @Coors is the smartest move. He's got good numbers there so far this year but no way that lasts.
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| 114 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 16:26
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Runy is far from overvalued. That's not the problem. The problem is that people are cashing out there gains in order to make money elsewhere. There has been no problem at all with his performance versus his price.
What some people (surprisingly some vets) are having trouble accepting is that the swing will be big and the opportunity to make big $$$ will be lost if you hold for his next start. All you have do is move him, and miss ONE start. The money you gain will be worth the trades in and out, plus you should get (though not necessarily gain unless you move to someone who pitches before Hernandez's next start) points as well. Loaiza (or whoever) doesn't have to out pitch Hernandez, they just have to pitch the same or nearly the same. You are out no TSNP and have made all that cash. Are 2 PT's worth a probable $1.5 - $2 million swing? I think so.
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| 115 | Tony Montana
ID: 243392323
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 16:45
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Runny is overvalued. You're just looking at the TSNP points he put up so far, but He's not going to be playing that well all season. Sure if He could continue to put up those hot starts forever, I'd say for his current price he is undervalued. But we both know that's not going to happen, the law of averages will bring him back down to where he belongs. And when He settles to his expected TSNP production his Price will move to reflect that. Unless I'm wrong and Runny will continue to be in the TOP 5 pitcher list for the next 5 months, then you can say he's far from overvalued.
And As far as people unloading him now because of panic of losing money, That's somewhat true, But I don't think it's so much the panic of losing money than it is people's expectations that he is due for a slump. Anyone who's had Runny up to his last start probably got all they could ever expect from the guy.
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| 116 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:04
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Nobody expects Runy to keep pitching like he has. He's averaged almost 100 TSNP per start, and those are Randy Johnson-like numbers.
But it seems way too premature to assess whether he is overvalued at a price of $3 million. Other starters in that price range include Ponson, Ashby, Garland, Hampton, Joe Mays, Miguel Batista, Helling, Joe Kennedy... When he returns to earth, can he compete with that crowd? Seems plausible. Can he be better? Perhaps. We don't have enough history to know how good or bad he is likely to be.
But for now, his problem is certainly not overvaluation.
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| 117 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:09
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Read through the threads and opinions. I don't recall a single post from anyone worried about him having a bad game. He may, but that's not the motivation for selling.
I agree that he will not pitch this well all year, certainly not in the Top 5 at seasons end. However, that doesn't make him overvalued by any stretch. Overvalued means he is priced higher than his production. He didn't even make it to $3 million. I'm not sure what your expectations for a $3 mill pitcher are, but he doesn't have to do much to be worth having. If he can post 75 TSNP/start then he's still way undervalued at that price IMO. He'd have to pitch poorly consisitently to be overvalued at under $3 mill.
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| 118 | Tony Montana
ID: 243392323
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 17:49
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If he wasn't overvalued his price wouldn't be dropping. And I did read through the posts for your information, there are opinions that support the idea that Runny is due for a slump. Runny's at the peak of his performance, he isn't doing any better. Loaiza is putting up better production and at a lower price, Is it hard to understand why people are switching over to him?
Runny is worth around $2.9 now but do you think he'll be worth that much at the end of the season when you factor in all his poor games etc.. ? You're not looking at the big picture. I suggest you get a dictionary or an economics book and do some learning on the subject.
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| 119 | beastiemiked
Sustainer
ID: 553291215
Thu, Apr 24, 2003, 18:35
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I really hope you were kidding with that last line. Reminded me of Rick Reily's recent column where he almost got into a fight with the KKK guy.
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| 121 | farbermania
ID: 153232112
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:02
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Montana,
Your assumptions are completely unfounded. Every player is different. Runny may very well hit a slump, but not cause he's "DUE." He has shown no signs of slumping. He's been a horse so far this season and may very well put up great numbers for the season.
Look, you don't have to convince me to dump Runny. I already have on ALL of my teams, but I'm dumping him because of his gravity, not whether he's overvalued or not. The only thing that can determine his "VALUE" is TSNP production vs. PRICE balance (umm... a catagory in which he is a top player on a short list). His "PRICE" is determined by all of those people who are still looking to up their own FV while still early in the season (the exact same reason I sold him). At this point, I'd rather have the money than the points. That, my friend, is part of my strategy.
Your arguments that he's "overvalued" or "due for a slump" just won't hold water because at this point it is just as likely that he will continue to produce as he is not. It is a complete coin toss. It always is. Remember the ZITO, PEDRO, RJ disaster a few weeks ago? Who could have predicted that?
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| 122 | farbermania
ID: 153232112
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:12
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basically, what I'm trying to say is. . .
Um, yeah, what ENDER said.
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| 123 | Ender
ID: 45114615
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:22
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First, I don't care for your tone in the last post. No one is attacking you so there is no need to get defensive and there's no need to be rude. All I said was to read through the posts ans you won't find anyone who was dumping him for performance reasons. If you inferred that I meant you hadn't read them at all, that's on your shoulders. That is not what was intended. There are many posts on the subject and reading back through them for a specific motivation for selling is all I recommended. No offense was intended.
I'll say it again, if you lok at price vs performance he is still grossly undervalued. That is he is producing at a level far above his price tag. If he were overvalued then he would be producing far below the other players in his same price range which is clearly no the case.
He is being sold because his price stopped increasing and there was a similarly priced pitcher with the same production whose price was increasing. The moves were made simply to make more money. I still challenge you to find someone who sold him because think someone else will outproduce him. Loaiza may, but that's not why people made that move. It was pure $$$. People knew that at best Runy wouldn't make any more money and at worst would being to lose it. They also knew that Loaiza would begin to make a lot. Who wouldn't make that move? Especially if production would be similar. Heck, I'll bet many people would make it short term even if the production may be a little less. The $$$ alone are worth the trades IMO (though others may feel differently). I'll make loads of money, especially given the net swing between the two pitchers.
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| 124 | Caper
Donor
ID: 1535108
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:37
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As someone who did trade Runny to Loaiza, I can tell you $$$$ is why I did it. It bothered me to trade a top producer at his position who was priced very well for his production to another for purely $$$$. But the fact is that when a pitcher is that widely held, people get antsy and will panic sell for little or no reason.Just like now I guess.
As Guru pointed out earlier, Runny was on too many rosters to keep making money and any sells would result in losses. This is the time of year to make a few $$$ to be able to keep up in the second half. Theory says that the points will be returned by being able to hold better players at the end. Runny may well blow up his next start, but I don't see any indicators other than the laws of probability, that eventually catch up to every starter, of that happening.
As a side thought or question, if Randy/Curt/Maddux/Oswalt... do not get their acts together, will this make the dollars vs point balance shift? Maybe the best available pitching staff will be $5-10 million cheaper. The $$$$ we sacrifice for in the first half may lay in the bank, if we get carried away. Just a thought.....
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| 125 | farbermania
ID: 153232112
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:39
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ender, were you in my brain this morning?
Oh, no, I forgot. You're just making complete sense. Nice economic summary.
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| 126 | Go Easy
Donor
ID: 45352412
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:47
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Ender, Caper, Guru and others I agree. I didn't want to sell but had to with the inevitable $$$ decline. Only reason to sell is for $$$ purposes. If someone can predict when he's going to blow up they should be in vegas not at the Guru's site.
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| 127 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 40211014
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:47
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with all the runny sell offs can the Loaiza>Runny thread be far behind. Ender and others are 100% correct. Loaiza is pitching way beyond his career norms and most likely will sting a lot of us with one of his implosions. I just hope the cash is worth it.
Runny actually went for $3 in our acution draft, talk about undervalued!
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| 128 | Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:49
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I don't think a bad Loaiza performance will hurt at all. We all know its coming. But with so many managers owning him already everyone will be taking the hit so it won't impact the standings too much.
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| 129 | Go Easy
Donor
ID: 45352412
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:50
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My last post should have read "predict acurately".
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| 130 | On the 85th year
ID: 10344614
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 10:54
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Thats a great point Farn, everyone has him so the money and the pts are almost irrelevant, the differemce maker here will be getting off him at the right time, IE, prior to his eventual & inevitable HUGE Griffeyesque price drop. So those mgr's which hold EL and do not also hold a PT are playing with a large inferno. IMHO
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| 131 | cancermoon
ID: 2239719
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:02
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Well I hold my hand up, I sold Elvis because his last three starts were damn lucky and he isn't pitching well at all, as soon as he strikes a team that is even remotely warm, he'll get slayed. I decided to grab a cheap closer instead, it had nothing to do with $$$ though, which is why i am still holding Prior, and will also keep hold of MacDougal aswell.
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| 132 | smartone @work
ID: 131198
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:16
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for the record:
the obvious Elvis --> Loaiza move has netted so far:
4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
total: $670K
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| 133 | Matt G
ID: 43047610
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:24
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I have Runny and Loaiza and still made $300K today, so I'm not complaining at all. Would be nice to have the extra from not hold runny, but I wanted the trades this time.
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| 134 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:27
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What I think gets lost in the buy low sell high as holt mentioned in 4 as being as basic as it gets is that we're not playing simply whoever has the most money wins. This is whoever has the most points wins. Money is a means to an end. We want to gain RV so we can afford the players that should be playing the best long term who tend to be higher in price, yet we don't want to throw away points in doing so. So there is a fine line at times at making RV gains and gaining points.
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| 135 | walk
Leader
ID: 4112711
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 12:59
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Freaking no-brainer move, especially given all of the advice the boards. And the overvaluation point is completey moot. And way too soon to say. Bottom Line is Runny maxed out and we all moved from KMart to WalMart.
Next week it'll be Esteban's turn. "As the money-making pitcher turns..."
- walk
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| 136 | smallwhirled
Donor
ID: 17152614
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:49
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I made the move strictly for the $$$, it had nothing to do with performance. That ownership, with the selloff, etc., etc. Plus what if you ate the losses, then he put up a stinker? Forget about it, he continues to absolutely tumble. It is too much of a risk to just hold him, IMHO.
I've made it a point to play these games with RV as my focus the past year, and not just early...but to continue it going. Sure there will be tons of cheap performers, but in the end more RV will always help your team out. It gives you much more room for error. I'm not saying it's the best way to play by any means, but I'm a greedy bastard for the RV. Ask someone who played hockey this year, I started with a week late team, got some help with some trades to make up the RV real quick and then kept it going. If the season was another 2 weeks, I probably would've won the dang thing finishing in 9th (applause for Dan). I blew away almost every team the last few months with a top RV. So don't just go out and say that RV is insignificant because it is.
smallwhirled
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| 137 | wiggs
Donor
ID: 52362510
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 13:57
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this is just yet another move i feel i was "forced" to make due to the huge sell offs. I think runny is pitching just fine and i personally dont see any point in moving him, but the way the money was moving, if i wanted to keep my RV i had to bail on him. I wish people wouldnt be so trade happy.
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| 138 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 91127165
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:09
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Wiggs - if you hate being "forced" to make this trade, I'll bet you LOVED RanDro'ing back in the day!
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| 139 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 14:18
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Actually, I was looking to movy Runy anyhow. But I do feel I was forced to dump Prior.
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| 140 | walk
Leader
ID: 4112711
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:12
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Half the moves we all make are because of market pressures. That is what making money is all about...responding to market sentiment, regardless of performance. Usually there is a positive correlation between performance and price, but in cases like these, and others, they are not. Then one is left to decide to either trade for money, trade for points, or hold trades for later.
- walk
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| 141 | Matt G
ID: 43047610
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:40
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Essentially I trade for Pts, which in turn gets me money. I see a guy who is hot, I see a favorable schedule, I trade into him, I get his points and gobble some dollars. It has worked this year so far. I'm towards the top of my division, and I have $59.5 mill
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| 142 | walk
Leader
ID: 4112711
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 16:59
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I am dumb and envious, Matt G. You have $1MM more than either of my teams and I am not sitting on top of my divisions. And I am trading following money. Makes me re-think my strategy.
- walk
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| 143 | Ref
Donor
ID: 100261311
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 17:18
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I'm doing the same thing as Matt G, and I may have a mill more than him.
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| 144 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 40211014
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 17:22
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I just plain suck this year. 58 mil (good) wwr about 4000 (terrible). i've been on the crap end of every pitcher implosion possible. "thank you sir may i have another" is my team motto!
it's still a long season, a few trades in the bank and one successful guru rotation will put me back in the hunt, i hope:).
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| 145 | Tony Montana
ID: 03102516
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 18:36
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Well I'm sorry I went below the belt in my last post Ender, but I'm getting frustrated over the fact that I can't get through to you people. I am going to try and explain one last time why Runny was overvalued( at the time I first made that claim, not today), and If I fail then screw this , this conversation is overvalued..
Ok lets take the prices of Loaiza and Runny from last Wednesday, before Runny started to sink.
Loaiza; 3.01-.13-.13-.13 = $2.62
Runny; .12+.11+.05 +2.7 = $2.98
Those were the prices of the Loazia and Runny three days ago when I first made my claim.
So on Wednesday you had
Loazia; 507tsnp @ $2.62million
compared to
Runny; 488tsnp @ $2.98million
Clearly you can see that at that point Loaiza had more production for less price. And compared to Loazia Runny WAS overvalued.
Lets use an alagory,
Suppose you're shopping for oranges
Orange stand A is selling 5 oranges for $2.50
Orange stand B is selling 4 oranges for $3.00
Which stand would you choose from?
Obviously B is selling less for more therefore B is overvalued.
That's why people Started to sell off Runny for Loaiza because Loaiza had more production for less price. You may think Runny was undervalued compared to the top $$ pitchers, but compared to Loazia he wasn't.
That's why the landslide on Runny started 3 days ago, because there was a better pitcher than him at a lower price. If Loazia didn't have such a good start and Runny had more tsnp than Loazia, then Runny's price would have held.
Looking at the prices today Runny is selling for much less than Loazia and I think that Runny's price will stabilize and possibly increase depending on his next performance, and Loaiza's next performance.
I'm not saying there aren't people who follow the money trains, I'm just trying to explain why the money trains begin in the first place.
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| 146 | Tony Montana
ID: 03102516
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 18:56
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The point in short is I'm not saying at all that Runny is a bad deal, all I'm saying is that two or three days ago, Loaiza was a better deal. People go for the better deal that's what causes the price changes. Now that's ignoring all of the speculation on who is actually a better pitcher in the long run. If we were concerened with the long run we wouldn't have Runny to begin with,, We'd all be trying to get the proven pitchers now, but that's not how this game works. So forget about who's going to put up better numbers next week, just look at what we have so far.
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| 147 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:37
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You're going to need a lot more patience. You'll also need to be comfortable with the fact that you may be able to learn some things instead of coming hear to teach all of us a lesson. The finest of the finest hang out on these boards. You can contribute, but understand that there are many people who have been playing this game for several years. You will get further if you don't sound so condascending.
I understand what you are saying. The problem IMO is that you are using "undervalued" and "overvalued" relative to a single player. You need to think of it in general terms. Also, the $360K difference between Hernandez and Loaiza is negligible. That certainly wasn't the motivation for most people. Loaiza could have been price $360K or more higher than Hernandez and this still would have happened.
The bottom line is this: Hernandez had stopped gaining money. He was likely to begin to lose money. Loiaza had started gaining money. The rationale was there to sell Hernnadez. Loaiza ended up being the recipient of most of the sells. It sould just as easily have been any other pitcher with $1 million of Hernandez (maybe more, maybe less). Loaiza benefitted from having pitched a gem the day before the selloff of Hernandez began. That was more important than their relative prices.
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| 148 | Pancho Villa
Donor
ID: 50342715
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:38
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I'm with Ender on this one. Just because a guy outperforms another and he is cheaper, that doesn't mean you go out and pick him up all the time. I mean this does happen daily. You get 3 PTs a week man. Runny ran because people got nervous by his wide ownership. Once he began to bleed he bled. They saw Loaiza as an immediate option because of his recent production AND people pumping him . The good ol' PUMP'N DUMP!!! RUNNY WAS NOT OVERVALUED HE WAS OVEREXPOSED. Oops my caps was on. There is a distinct difference between the two.
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| 149 | Tony Montana
ID: 253522517
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 19:58
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Well I've been as crystal clear as I could possibly be yet you still don't want to listen. You want to talk about being condescending yet you can't even spell it right. I tried being nice, but you all (Especially you Ender) are a bunch of stuck up stubborn mules. You can't put two and two together, let alone understand anything about economics. Take your exclusive message forum and shove it for all I care.
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| 150 | Texas Flood
Donor
ID: 311039208
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:01
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bye bye.
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| 151 | Farn
Donor
ID: 7822711
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:15
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take care Joe Montana.
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| 152 | Pancho Villa
Donor
ID: 50342715
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:28
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Toni Muntunna!!! Say hello to ma little fren!!!
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| 153 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 20:34
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I remember in years back when I had several people telling me I was all screwed up in my "Guru rotation" analysis because Randro generated one start per trade, period. The more I tried to reason, the more they kept saying that I just wouldn't listen.
There are times when "not listening" is simply the best option. This is one.
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| 154 | cancermoon
ID: 573392510
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:36
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Tony Montana if you are reading this still, I am curious about one thing, I understand that you said Loaiza was a better deal and so the better pick up, but using your theory about deals, surely with 5 pitching slots, Runny was still a better deal thatn the others and so both should have been kept as a better deal than the rest maybe? Although that isn't true either as I am sure Carter, and a few others are even better deals for their price than Loaiza or Runny.
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| 155 | Ref
Donor
ID: 539581218
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 21:37
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Thing is, the big friend didn't even talk about using trades or player going up or down. Hey, ender...at least you tried!!!
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| 156 | Ender
ID: 13443221
Fri, Apr 25, 2003, 22:41
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cm, that was a point I forgot to bring up. In his scenario, it would really be better to move a much higher priced pitcher to Loaiza and hold both he and Hernandez. That was the fatal flaw in his logic IMO. He was zeroed in on just those 2 pitchers and didn't consider any other slots. He also couldn't conceive of any other reason to sell Hernandez other than to buy Loaiza. Hernendez was going no matter what. His gains had ceased and he would have bled slowly then collapsed. Loaiza was the right guy at the right time and sped up the whole process.
Oh well. I tried, like you said Ref.
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| 157 | Bond, James Bond
ID: 711210
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:17
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Montana, you big egotistical jerk! Normally in a case like yours, I would say, "Don't let the door hit you" but in your case I'll make an exception! ;)
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| 158 | R9 - Belly Colon
ID: 5530259
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 00:40
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This thread makes me feel a little better. If the new and not so intelligent managers are making the right moves for all the wrong reasons, then surely at some point they'll make a few wrong moves and allow me to break the top 10,000!
;)
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| 159 | smartone
Donor
ID: 191119269
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 12:17
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for the record:
the obvious Elvis --> Loaiza move has netted so far:
4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/26: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)
total: $930K
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| 161 | Great One
Donor
ID: 41136511
Sat, Apr 26, 2003, 14:37
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gonna be sweeter and sweeter the closer Runny gets to the 2 million mark - and the more that that gap grows -... then you can cash in the difference.
Now if my other 4 could just get the Save Train rollin'... I think it starts, tonight.
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| 162 | The Pink Pimp
ID: 56332914
Tue, Apr 29, 2003, 17:02
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Here's what happened to all those who were "forced" to go Elvis --> Loaiza
4/23: $180K
4/24: $240K (E: -110K, L: +130K)
4/25: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/26: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)
4/27: $260K (E: -130K, L: +130K)
4/28: $250K (E: -120K, L: +130K)
4/29: $230K (E: -100K, L: +130K)
total: $1,670K
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| 163 | smartone
ID: 313039
Tue, Aug 31, 2004, 09:37
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...had to post this...
from Rotowire: RHP Runelvys Hernandez is in Kansas City for a two-day workout with the Royals.
Hernandez, who had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow last September, will throw 35 pitches from a bullpen mound today. The 26-year-old right-hander, who had been throwing in Arizona since February, is expected to pitch in the Instructional League this fall and be ready for spring training next season. Aug. 31 - 7:56 am et
Source: Kansas City Star
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