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0 Subject: RIBC 2018: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Mar 13, 2018, 10:24

This thread will contain all of the individual pick rationales for the 2018 RIBC draft. RIBC managers should supply those rationales in the Rationale Collection thread. Once the first round rationales are posted, you will not be able to post directly into this thread.

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     Mar 24, 7:45 pm
22.15 Mauer, Joe - MIN - 1B
Hitting depth. Only age 34. No power anymore, but 12% walk rate props up OBP, and should play most of the time. Remarkably durable, with at least 500 PA every year since 2011. I drafted him as my final pick in a different league last year, and he managed to start for me almost all season. Why not?
352Matt G
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     Mar 24, 7:57 pm
22.16 Vogelbach, Daniel - SEA - 1B
I usually don't take too much stock in spring stats, but he is raking and very well could start in Seattle. Grasping at straws here.
353Matt G
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     Mar 24, 7:58 pm
23.01 Harvey, Matt - NYM - SP
complete shot in the dark here, velocity is up supposedly, could he be back? Upside pick only.
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     Mar 24, 8:02 pm
23.02 Markakis, Nick - ATL - OF
More hitting depth. I could pretty much copy the Mauer rationale and it would apply.
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     Mar 24, 8:12 pm
23.03 Hirano, Yoshihisa - ARI - RP
Arizona hasn't named a closer yet, and maybe they prefer Archie Bradley in the Andrew Miller role, and are willing to roll the dice to start the season on a veteran closer who major league hitters haven't seen before.
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     Mar 24, 8:22 pm
23.04 Parra, Gerardo - COL - OF
The demotions of McMahon and Dahl re-opened left field for Parra. With all the Rockies' flashy young OF/1B talent, Parra will probably have to play well in order to start all season, but he needs to play well in order to stay on my fantasy team anyway.

There is potential for that: Parra had an .852 OPS in the first half last year, and his 71 RBI in only 425 PA would have translated to 100 RBI if he had reached 600 PA. I'm not expecting anything like that, but Parra was a mid-round pick 2 years ago, and there are worse places to play than Coors Field (29 of them).

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     Mar 24, 8:37 pm
23.05 Junis, Jake - KAN - SP
Little bit light at OF and quite light on IP is the feeling so a bit of urgency to target SP here. And possibly the following 2 picks as well. Still wouldn't mind another reliever or two. But focus on SP for now. Junis was starting to stand out a while ago and now really catches my eye among the other options I'm looking at. Was starting to consider Hirano and Parra but they went just before me. Felt pretty set on SP anyway. Reynaldo Lopez, Foltynewicz were considered. But Junis showed some excellent control late last year and seems to be on point so far in spring. May tread lightly with him at first. Liking the potential.
358Mighty Meatwads
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     Mar 24, 9:43 pm
23.06 Senzel, Nick - CIN - 3B
In the past I've taken elite prospects earlier, so even though this is the second player I may have to wait on, at least it's nearly 400 picks deep instead of the middle rounds. It's clear to me he is ready to hit in the majors, so I'm hoping him getting sent down is just a matter of the Reds getting an extra year of team control. The news that the Reds are willing to try him out at SS and 2B could be a sign they want to get his bat in the lineup. Considering I don't have a backup at 3B and he may gain multi-position for me, in a good hitters park, I could've done worse. Worst case I cut to stream or pluck someone hot off the free agents.
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     Mar 24, 9:50 pm
23.07 Kendrick, Howie - WAS - OF
360Da Bomb
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     Mar 24, 10:10 pm
23.08 Duggar, Steven - SFO - UTL
He may be the everyday CF with his .908 Spring OPS.
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     Mar 24, 10:22 pm
23.09 Glasnow, Tyler - PIT - RP
Iím hoping heís another one of those Archie Bradley-type failed starters who successfully converts to the bullpen. Glasnow has filthy stuff and if his control is reason that he canít thrive. While he wonít get any save opportunities with the elite Rivero, Glasnow was a pick to help my ratios...if he fails to impress, see ya!
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     Mar 24, 10:45 pm
23.10 Foltynewicz, Mike - ATL - SP
Wouldíve taken Porcello last round had Happ not been available, but Iím hoping for a little more upside with my last SP pick Ö drafted Porcello in the 11th round last year and didnít see any hint at all of his 2016 anomaly returning while holding onto him for the entire year. Foltyís another trendy pick Ö a great spring holding out some promise of his relatively fast start last year continuing through the entire year this time around Ö heís worth 3-4 starts to see if at least last yearís start Ė if not finish - can be replicated.
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     Mar 25, 9:06 am
23.11 Swarzak, Anthony - NYM - RP
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     Mar 25, 9:06 am
23.12 Ramos, A.J. - NYM - RP
Ah, the sure sign that Opening Day cannot be far off Ė- time to load up with relief pitchers, whether next-in-line for saves, in the mix, or innings eaters with good ratios.

Anthony Swarzak had been on the top of my RP queue for quite a while, but before this pick I decided to review my options. What about Ramos? Swarzak is the better pitcher, but Ramos is a ďproven closerĒ and might be next up for saves.

I decided to put Ramos first, which was a questionable decision Ė but made no difference when Swarzak was taken at 23.11.

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     Mar 25, 9:06 am
23.13 Iannetta, Chris - COL - C
3 picks left and I need a catcher. Iannetta is old, going to turn 35 this year. I'm not confident in him staying healthy. He shouldn't drag down ratios especially when he starting in Colorado. I'll probably end up doing the catcher shuffle this year. Unfortunately, Colorado has 7 away games in 8 days before they play in Colorado. Probably should've checked that schedule before drafting him. At this point though, most guys will end up back on the FA wire so not that big of a deal either way.
366blue hen
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     Mar 25, 9:07 am
23.14 Mccarthy, Brandon - ATL - SP
*if healthy
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     Mar 25, 1:55 pm
23.15 Minor, Mike - TEX - SP
Shot in the dark. Minor was off to a very good start of a career as a starter til that got derailed 2014. He came back with a very solid season as a reliever last season. Texas isn't the best place to be a pitcher but I just want to hang on to Minor for a while and see how it shakes out. Last I checked he had a spot in their rotation. Might have Senzel or Iannetta if they had lasted. Didn't really have time to research but Minor was a player I had in mind all along for a late dart throw.
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     Mar 25, 6:26 pm
23.16 Porcello, Rick - BOS - SP
Nothing like picking up a Cy Young Award winning 350 picks in! Woo. Hoping he can meet in the middle between the success of his last 2 seasons. His BABIP got high last year. Hard to judge if that was a fluke or because they were hitting him harder.
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     Mar 25, 6:30 pm
24.01 Odorizzi, Jake - TAM - SP
Opening Day starter on a good teamÖ. Good springÖ. (ďOdorizzi has put on a clinic this spring, contributing a 0.87 ERA over three Grapefruit League startsĒ). Iím hoping for an ERA under 4.00 . Last year was over that after his velocity dipped. But prior 2 years were 3.69 and 3.35.
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     Mar 25, 6:31 pm
24.02 Dietrich, Derek - MIA - 3B
I'm kind of short in the corner infielder dept. As in, I have no one to slot in at CI on opening day due to Gurriel's suspension. I don't know how long Dietrich stays on my roster but he is solid enough to at least be a short term option. He has utterly destroyed the ball this sprind, fwiw, .370 .444 .674., and, Miami's offense is so lame this season that he's probably going to be in the two or possibly three hole. He's still only 28, and it wouldn't be unheard of for a career year to happen for him this season. He gets a LOT of HBP in addition to the walks and had an OBP of .374 in 2016. Additionally, my only other conceivable options for a CI were Flores who isn't really a starter to open the year and an undrafted rookie with very low ceiling, so Dietrich it is.
371blue hen
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     Mar 25, 6:31 pm
24.03 Renfroe, Hunter - SDG - OF
I had a bunch of sleepers teed up for this pick. Last minute, I moved Renfroe to the top of the queue. What if he hits a bunch of homers? It's going to be difficult to find a guy like this on the wire during the season, so I may as well draft him now. Most of my sleepers are SP, and I'm pretty set there after Corbin and McCarthy.
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     Mar 25, 6:43 pm
24.04 Flaherty, Jack - STL - SP
After I autopicked Iannetta I wasn't too sure where I was going next. Then I saw Wainwright was hitting the DL and Flaherty was probably going to take his spot. Bingo. Only problem was it took a long time to get back to me. I thought I was going to miss out on him due to the news being broke during Holt's pick. Luckily he made it back to me. Obviously, he'll need an extended stay on the DL by Wainwright or another injury to stay in the rotation. However, he's got great stuff and if he comes out like he did in ST he might just delay Wainwright coming back. Decent high upside pick late in the draft. I considered one other unnamed player.
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     Mar 25, 7:09 pm
24.05 Pagan, Emilio - OAK - RP
Opening Day not only not far off, but getting closer and closer waiting for this pick to come up.

I notice a trend this year to pick, and pick higher, more relievers who arenít closers, nor even necessarily next in line for saves, but who will put up lots of innings with a good K/9 (see Swarzak, Anthony mentioned above). Makes sense to me, with fewer starters putting in even 200 IP.

Pagan is my dollar-store version of this type of pitcher. 56/8 K/BB ratio last year, mid-90s fastball plus slider variously described as ďeffectiveĒ or ďmediocreĒ, 11/0 K/BB ratio in spring training.

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     Mar 25, 7:09 pm
24.06 Velasquez, Vince - PHI - SP
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     Mar 25, 7:36 pm
24.07 Frazier, Adam - PIT - OF
A tossup for me between Frazier and Renfroe, with the latterís selection four picks before mine deciding it. My first-ever 2B handcuff (with Harrison), gives me extra OF depth to perhaps eventually allow me to move Bruce to CI, and is a high-contact hitter whoíll steal a few bases. No real power to speak of, but put up a .743 OPS last year, with 9 SB, across 406 AB and could be a real steal here if he can gain a starting role.
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     Mar 25, 8:15 pm
24.08 Robles, Victor - WAS - OF
Kingery had just signed his extension hours earlier...maybe there is a chance the Nats do the same with him. My gut tells me they wonít call him up until Super 2 as theyíre expected to run away with the division. However, if he does get the Kris Bryant treatment I will be very happy. Had kingery not signed the extension, I wouldíve went Jarrod Dyson as the DíBacks sent Tomas down at the same time as the Kingery extension.
377Da Bomb
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     Mar 25, 8:30 pm
24.09 Alfaro, Jorge - PHI - C
Alfaro had a strong 29 game stint last season with his .874 OPS. He did that with a .420 BABIP though and his walk rate isn't good, but he does have plus power and he's had a great Spring.
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     Mar 25, 9:24 pm
24.10 Dyson, Jarrod - ARI - OF
379Mighty Meatwads
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     Mar 25, 9:55 pm
24.11 Reyes, Jose - NYM - SS
I made this pick based on his 3 positions. He was also worth rostering last season, as he was 5th in the NL in steals. He's projected to play a super-utility role this season for the Mets, and I will be satifified if he remains on my roster in the same role. If he can play 4 days a week while I wait on Gleyber and/or Senzel, his value as my 24th round pick will be satisfied. Easy cut if he's struggling or not getting enough playing time.
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     Mar 25, 10:26 pm
24.12 Diekman, Jake - TEX - RP
Still talks that he might take control of closer job in Texas makes it hard to leave him down in the queue. Only one OF stands out, still undrafted with only a few picks remaining. Couple starters but mostly relief options stand out for me here. Diekman seems worth a chance this late in the draft. Likely to stream a few of the others I'm considering early enough in the season anyway.
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     Mar 25, 10:31 pm
24.13 Hendriks, Liam - OAK - RP
Hendriks has been an above-average reliever. More importantly, he appears to be the clear handcuff to Blake Treinen. If Treinen starts off smoothly, there is a good chance that I will drop Hendriks, but with a less favorable SV situation than I'm used to, I want to have some insurance.
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     Mar 26, 12:12 am
24.14 Musgrove, Joe - PIT - SP
When I saw Cishek go immediately after this, I wanted a do-over, if only because it'll take 3 weeks to see if Musgrove is worth it, and by then, it'll be clear if Morrow actually has the stones to close for the Cubs. Probably inconsequential, but bad thought process going starter instead of reliever at the turn.
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     Mar 26, 12:13 am
24.15 Cishek, Steve - CHC - RP
One of the setup arms behind Morrow. Maybe the closer handcuff, maybe not. He has closed before.
384Matt G
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     Mar 26, 12:28 am
24.16 Almora Jr., Albert - CHC - OF
.338 OBP, 8 HR in 299 AB. If he would only get regular playing time I think he could be really productive. And I'm hoping he emerges as a starter this year.
385Matt G
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     Mar 26, 12:28 am
25.01 Flores, Wilmer - NYM - 3B
More power here, the Mets want to get him in the lineup and are having him try the OF a little. Could be a super utility guy. Hit 18HR in 336 ABs laster year, hoping for position flex and some power here
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     Mar 26, 12:29 am
25.02 Tepera, Ryan - TOR - RP
One of the setup arms behind Osuna. Maybe the closer handcuff, maybe not. He has closed before in AAA, but he seems to want to be a starter, so maybe it's not in the cards.
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     Mar 26, 12:35 am
25.03 Pivetta, Nick - PHI - SP
With Cishek gone, it was down to Kendrys Morales or an upside, strikeout pick in Pivetta. In the 3 minutes of digging into Morales, I didn't like what I saw - almost all of his production in the last 2 years has been against lefties. He's a weaker version of Brandon Crawford when he hits against righties (280/400 last year; 307/423 the year before). And it looks like (I hope) Smoak has replaced him in the cleanup spot. But I was really close to drafting Kendrys. As for Pivetta, he needs to improve in multiple areas to even be rosterable, but maybe he does.
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     Mar 26, 12:55 am
25.04 Bautista, Jose - TOR - OF
Rumor has it that Bautista is close to signing with either the Rays or Braves. If he signs somewhere and lands a starting role, then I'll give him a shot. More likely, I'll be dropping Bautista on opening day and using this slot for spot starts.
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     Mar 26, 1:26 am
25.05 Lopez, Reynaldo - CWS - SP
Lopez, undrafted OF, Pivetta and a bunch of RP rounded out the queue. Potential for big strikeouts had Lopez and Pivetta standing out, with Lopez getting the edge due to feeling that he will have better stats elsewhere. Shot in the dark to finish things off.

Still a lot of grinding remains but the first hole I'll leave when injuries start happening is innings pitched. Can recover those later. Not ideal but worth it to at least try to get in the closer race and try to avoid losing too many GP on offense.

390Mighty Meatwads
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     Mar 26, 7:26 am
25.06 Martin, Russell - TOR - C
I pretty much hate catchers, so I end up with one of the lower level ones more often than not. Martin has a decent OBP, is projected to play in a hitter's park, in the middle of the lineup, and at least has a track record of some success in his career. I probably would've taken Alfaro here but he was selected a few picks before. I'm not expecting any miracles here. It will be a bit of a surprise if he stays on the squad.
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     Mar 26, 10:50 am
25.07 Nicasio, Juan - SEA - RP
392Da Bomb
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     Mar 26, 11:00 am
25.08 Martin, Leonys - DET - OF
Martin's season best OPS is .698 and is coming off a .513 campaign, but if he can just carry over his Spring .944 OPS for a full season to match his 30+ SB ability, he'll be a nice player. It seems that Gardenhire has 2 spots in the batting order decided, with Miguel Cabrera hitting 3rd, and Martin is the other at leadoff.
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     Mar 26, 12:40 pm
25.09 Mccann, James - DET - C
Token Catcher. Said to be hitting 6th and put on 15lbs of muscle.
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     Mar 26, 12:41 pm
25.10 Morales, Kendrys - TOR - UTL
Thought about a second catcher here, but there will always be several of those available. Iíve seen Morales projected as a $10 auction player in a few places, and certainly think heís worth a shot for my last pick. 550+ AB for each of the past three years and, while his production has fallen over those years, he still put up a 67 / 85 / 0 / .308 / .445 line in his first year in Toronto. Not having a great spring, but could still hit as high as 4th in the order and will likely be given every chance to prove heís still an every-day player.
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     Mar 26, 12:50 pm
25.11 Alexander, Scott - LAD - RP
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     Mar 26, 1:01 pm
25.12 Engel, Adam - CWS - OF
Juan Nicasio, presumptive next-in-line to one of my closers had been at the top of my RP list. Taken at 25.07 But that was OK, becuz the day that Derek Fisher was picked, he sprained his ankle. So I needed an OF, hopefully not for long.

I had a sleeper type at the top of my queue, but thinking it over I decided to go for Leonys Martin. Leading off, should steal bases, an OBP/SLG minus but whomping the ball at spring training. Taken at 25.08.

More research. Saw that Engel had won the starting CF job for the White Sox. This guy can really fly and will steal bases Ė if he can get on base. Hit OK in Double-A once, hitting well in ST, probably wonít stay on my roster for long. May not hold the job for long either.

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     Mar 26, 1:58 pm
25.13 Gonzalez, Adrian - NYM - 1B
Pretty much a placeholder. I wanted Leonys Martin but he got picked a few picks before I could pick. Since Gonzalez doesn't play on Friday I'll probably be dropping him for someone who does.
398blue hen
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 26, 1:58 pm
25.14 Stratton, Chris - SFO - SP
I had a bunch of players, mostly starting pitchers, in my queue, and this was the one that came out on top.
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     Mar 26, 3:35 pm
25.15 Duffy, Matt - TAM - SS
Duffy has has streaks of fantasy usefulness for me in the past. He'll gain 3b eligibility soon and steals some bases here and there. in the two hole, if he gets hot with the bat, maybe he does something to make me want to keep him on my roster. In the short term, he is someone I can plug in in case Gregorius has the day off. He's only 27 and should have a long leash in Tampa, you would think.
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     Mar 26, 3:36 pm
25.16 Pujols, Albert - LAA - UTL
Mr. Irrelevant. Lifetime achievement award for Pujols. I couldnít let him go undrafted in 400 picks. Hoping his veteran presence can be a calming influence on clubhouse chemistry. "
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