Subject: Gurupie 20 - 2019 Regular Season Discussion
Posted by: Species
- SuperDude  Sun, Mar 24, 2019, 12:23
The 2019 regular season is ready to go! A hearty thank you to the league for your attention, patience and diligence during the offseason, during our keeper process, during the Prospect Draft and ultimate in our just completed Supplemental Draft.
It has been the most active offseason in league history, in terms of adjustments to our rules, indoctrinating two new managers and by far the most active trading time ever. I am very proud to be a part of this league and there is little doubt it is more vibrant than ever.
Some league business as we await Opening Day on March 28th:
1) With the Supplemental Draft now complete, we are doing a manual waiver process. Please see the next post for details.
2) I need managers to review the proposed wording of the new prospect rules. All input and suggestions welcomed. I know in my mind exactly how it is all supposed to work. Thank you Fosten for offering up the draft language.
3) Keep in mind both 2020 and 2021 Prospect and Supplemental draft picks are now available for trade.
4) Rule changes and suggestions are always welcomed. We might all need a few weeks to come back to earth from all of our drafts across fantasy baseball to really pay attention. But I know there are some suggestions out there that will need to be discussed.
Best of luck to all teams!! I will be authoring a bit of a league preview.......would love to hear from other managers who they feel the contenders, pretenders and rebuilders will be this year.
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Species † † †
ID: 57658249 † † † Wed, Aug 28, 2019, 16:45
And DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!!
Like a great horse race, the 2019 G20 season is now in the final stretch. Most teams have between 29-31 or so games left!! The trade deadline has passed, and there appear to be two contenders left standing.....will Meatwads' 9-closer strategy be enough to bridge the 10 point gap?!? Can I get enough K and W to give myself a little more breathing room?!? Everyone has played their cards, and outside of some streams or a lucky WW pickup, we have what we have.
I would like to congratulate everyone on a very active year. We already had an offseason for the ages with 2 new teams stripping themselves to the core and building back from there. After a short trading lull when I creeped into the 170s, trading sprung to life and got crazy over these last few weeks. Serious props to Meatwads for emptying the cupboard and giving himself a serious chance to win. Best of luck down the stretch, bro.
Is a called-up prospect eligible to be put on the IL? I have Hiura on the DL now and he's still prospect eligible, however Ive called him up twice so if I send him down he's done for the year. Obviously that's not ideal.
re post 457, I suport being able to put a called-up player on IL. you owned him: you should receive the IL benefit (since, in reality, it is often a curse when the player goes on the DL). Same as a major-league keeper goes the logic. Let's change this guys.
I would also like to consider expanding IL to include any player taken in the first 4 rounds of the draft. These are players you're unlikely to give up on and would be useful for most, if not all, of the season. And sometimes they become keeper quality.
No doubt the IL experiment has yielded positive results. When we enter the offseason, we can decide upon both:
2) Total number of IL slots
I am a little leery of the eligibility pool getting too wide for tracking sake. But I am open to what the league feels is best. Everyone has done a spot-on job of managing their IL -- only once did I have to remind a manager to activate a player off of IL after they were reinstated.
TWO WEEKS TO GO!!! Two teams fighting it out! It is a mad scramble right now, and both team Species and team Meatwads are furiously managing our rosters to try to eek out every last half point. While at this moment Ė me with a 10.5 point lead - it doesnít look that close, do not let that fool you for one second. There are A LOT of points that can go either way for both teams. I guarantee you the final standings will have no more than a 3 point difference when all is said and done. It will probably be even closer than that.
To his credit, Meatwads had deployed some of the most innovative management I have ever seen. With no less than TEN pitchers who could close a game, he can deploy 9 of them at any time thanks to strategically acquiring Carlos Martinez, Jose LeClerc and Ian Kennedy, all of whom have SP designations in ESPN. He has over 30 saves over the last 15 days. That does NOT bode well for me to hold him off in the saves category with only a 13 save lead! That boys is already FIVE points in his favor, since I will lose a point when he passes me. My only hope is a lot of losing streaks, sore arms, more illnesses and blowout games for his closers.
This strategy does come at a price however. While Meatwads has continued to use the starters at his disposal, it does bring the strikeout category into risk for him Ė and without the data I would assume he has dropped a point or two in K, as he is 8 and 4 strikeouts behind the teams ahead of him. He also has some risk in Wins, as he has two teams that are 2 wins behind him and another team that is 3 wins behind him. He does, however, have THREE points of WHIP upside Ė he is in a 4-way dogfight (and at the back of that pack) in WHIP and only needs a .004 improvement to gain three points.
On the hitting side, his once impenetrable, stud-filled beastly lineup has succumbed to injury and the roster space squeeze required by his closer strategy. Already being forced to drop potential catching keeper Will Smith, Meatwads is limping to the hitting finish line with 6 active hitters after the injuries to Christian Yelich and Javier Baez. Both have very serious injuries Ė Yelich a broken patella and Baez a broken thumb Ė but have yet to be designated on the IL, and thus Meatwads cannot replace them without giving up one of his pitchers. I can only assume the Brewers and Cubs do not need the roster space with the expanded rosters, so they are not officially placing them on the IL. I realize that this directly benefits ME in this race, but the rules were clarified / crafted to address IL eligibility. While the intent of the rule is to avoid IL manipulation by waiting for official IL designation to be eligible, this issue is kind of the opposite and it is working against him. Not cool but I donít see a way around it. ESPN will not allow them to be placed on the IL so he cannot open up the roster space. Talk about rubbing salt in his wounds!
So Meatwads sits behind 10 runs to the team above him, with probably no chance to catch them. He maintains a 24 run lead on the team behind him, so he is probably safe and will not lose a point. He leads in HR and maintains a 9 HR lead. He can probably limp to the finish line and save that point. RBI could be an issue Ė he is 8 RBI behind the team ahead of him and only 9 RBI ahead of the team behind him. With only 6 hitters, gaining ground may be hard. In steals he is 3 behind the team ahead of him and 6 steals ahead of the team behind him. Probably safe. He is too far behind to gain in OBP, but has some modest risk of losing a point in OBP.
What about me?
On the negative, I am positive I lead the league in 7 ER starts! Somewhere in June or even July I sat with a 3.50 ERA and a cushy lead. Since then, while losing Scherzer for a month I enduring countless massacres by the likes of Porcello, Hamels, Lester, Miley, Bassitt, Fiers and Wade f***ing Davis to where I now sit with a ludicrous 3.881 ERA and holding on for dear life. I have a slim lead on the team behind me and am at far greater risk of losing a point then I am gaining one. Same goes for WHIP Ė I think it was in the 1.16 range back then and now I am at 1.233 and again have the slimmest of margins before losing a point. I have done decent enough in strikeouts and sit 5th in that category now. Do I sell out to try to pass Meatwads down the stretch and risk blowing up my ratios worse? In wins I am more at risk for a 1.5 point loss than I am to gain. In saves I lead now but will be passed by Meatwads before the end of the year. I have to stay ahead of Thumper to avoid losing another point.
Fortunately, over the time that my pitching was blowing up in a bad way, my hitting has gone OFF and saved my ass. I lost the runs lead at one point but now lead by 6 and hope to stay with my stable of high OBP hitters. In HR I am 3 behind a team to gain, but have more at risk with two teams 2 HR behind me. Where I also went off was in RBI, where I lead by 8 and 13 to two teams on my tail after being 4th or 5th in RBI a month or so ago. This was thanks to the Rendon acquisition and Abreu being an absolute beast over the last 30 days with a .405 obp, 7 HR and 28 RBI. Steals are still hotly contested Ė I am 1 and 3 SB behind teams ahead of me but also only 2 SB ahead of a team behind me. I have no risk of loss in OBP. After falling to 3rd in OBP 5 or so weeks ago, I blitzkrieged that category since.
I am nervous AF. There are just too many scenarios that would give Meatwads the chance to catch me. FIVE points in saves are basically guaranteed to him unless he gets really unlucky. He has THREE points in WHIP on the table where one 7 inning outing of 1.00 WHIP will gain him those points. Combine that with all of the risks that I have on the table, and this could easily end up a 165.5 to 165 point ending one way or the other.
I have finally taken a little time to add the rest of the league trades. I have bolded two instances - one for myself, one for Meatwads - where I believe the same pick has been traded twice.
Teams may 1) renegotiate 2) the offending team can acquire a replacement pick
If neither of those options happen, the offending team will end up providing their next highest pick to their trade partner. These are both 2021 picks. This does not have to be trued up until the 2021 Supplemental Draft.
We are down to three games left......I want to express how impressed I am at SO MANY teams fighting for every run, every strikeout, every inch of ground as we wind down the season. Let me tell you it made my advance planning over these past 2 weeks that much harder, often picking up streamable pitchers 2 days in advance to get the preferred matchups. No cheap stats in this league!
Congrats, Species! You were in command pretty much wire-to-wire until the last month or so. Your dominance kind of irks me though because I think it hindered my ability to improve on my 2020 keepers and draft slots. I had tradable assets, man, but you just wouldn't let off the gas and let some other teams in the race!
Nice run at it, Meatwads. You made it interesting, and credit to you for going all in.
Blue Hen † † †
ID: 410452818 † † † Sun, Sep 29, 2019, 23:43
Congrats Species. Great run, and spectacular moves. From Brantley in March to Rendon at the trade deadline, you were active and accurate.
And fantastic work by Meatwads. Best Iíve seen identifying a weakness and destroying it. Youíll be a force for years.
Congrats also to Thumper, Nerf, WG, and Pete for finishing in the money. Thanks for a great season.
Grats to Species for the win. As for myself, I fought like heck to get back into the money - something I haven't even sniffed in the 9 years Ive been in this league. There was a point in mid-August where I was very close to 10th place, no better than last year, and had to stop waiting for players I liked to get healthy - I had to ditch them and get people that were playing. In the last six weeks I slowly started moving up the leaderboard, and ended up leading in HR in the end - presumably the all time G20 record.
So, a great accomplishment for my team, and for myself. I made some really good in-season trades early enough in the season to matter, and then struggled with injuries to guys I couldn't put on IL for various reasons. I didn't get much else done in my baseball leagues this year, so this makes up for it. More on my year when I have more time to analyze!
Blue Hen † † †
ID: 410452818 † † † Mon, Sep 30, 2019, 15:02
Someone please update the spreadsheet, asap
Blue Hen † † †
ID: 410452818 † † † Mon, Sep 30, 2019, 15:06
Correct, the old HR record was 255, by Meat last year, and Nerf smashed it, at 280. Meat, BMD, and Pete also passed 255.
I was second on that list! I think my problem is I like some players too much. When they get hurt I don't want to lose them, or I'm afraid that if I drop someone I like, I won't be able to get them back. I probably could have streamed middle relief more than I did. Although, Lugo was one of my MVP's this year.
RK TEAM GP IP 1 Endangered Species 172 1469 1339.1 2 Mighty Meatwads 159 1388 1280 3 The Thumpers 143 1462 1333.1 4 Busted Ballsacks 131 1439 1293 5 Wazaaap Guy 130 1415 1317 5 ScruffyLookin' Nerfherders 130 1422 1223.1 7 darkside of the moon 128 1458 1350 8 Team Tosh 120.5 1446 1283.1 9 Blue Hen 114.5 1385 1217.1 10 Munson Mobsters 112 1338 1249.2 11 beastiemike d 111 1470 1377 12 Major League 101 1401 1253.2 13 Roto Guru20 100.5 1405 1241 14 GO's Black Sox 97.5 1420 1209.2 15 Team mjd 91 1435 1357.1 16 youngroman's Luschen 89 1419 1339.2 17 Lyman Bostock 10 64 1406 1281.1 18 Khahans Keepers 44 1333 1219.2 19 Fort Worth House Martins 33 1370 1333.1 20 Greggo Romans 29 1357 1118.1
Species † † † SuperDude † † †
ID: 07724916 † † † Tue, Oct 01, 2019, 17:51
Wow. What a season. Thanks to all for the kind words.....but man, whoever sat around thinking this was some leisurely stroll through the woods wasn't running the numbers over the last 5 weeks.
It SHOULD have been a walk in the woods. Once I jumped into the 160s in early July, barring injury there wasn't much that was going to get in my way....until Meatwads woke up and saw an avenue to get into the mid-160s or hit 170 and made this a TRUE dogfight. Sure, the score ended up 172 to 159, but we were as close as something like 166 to 164 as recent as the Tuesday of the last week of the season.
In the end, Meatwads' saves-or-bust strategy created an imperfect storm for him when injuries to offensive superstars Christian Yelich, Javier Baez and Josh Bell occurred. Complicating matters was the expanded September rosters, which did not create any urgency for those team to placed those stars on the IL, and thus he had no ability to move them to IL and create space for replacements.
As September was unfolding, I found myself scratching my head as to why he didn't consider dropping a couple of his more mediocre closers to keep his GP and IP up. Yes, the numbers indicated he probably needed to pass me in saves to have a chance to win, but what is the point of passing me in saves if he loses 10 points in hitting along the way? It was a huge quandry -- one I no doubt assume Meatwads suffered through as he debated each option.
If I had more time, I would extrapolate what Meatwads might have accumulated had he properly replaced these bats. I wonder if he would have had enough to hunt me down. Let's not even shudder to think what he would have done had he not lost those three hitting studs (let alone Chris Sale blowing up in the wrong way).
I crafted a really strong, no-weaknesses from top to bottom type of team. I lacked the lineups like Meatwads and Thumper with multiple MVP candidates to carry you when the rest of the team goes into a slump --- but I had a VERY strong contributor at every offensive position, and save for one they all stayed healthy. Jose Abreu, Eduardo Escobar, Jonathan Villar, Mookie Betts, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley all exceeded 570 AB's, with several of them well into the 600 AB range. Combining that with some timely additions (Pederson, Rendon, even Calhoun contributed some bombs) and I had an offense that was just good enough.
I mismanaged my innings pitched, acquiring way too many old veterans who haven't pitched 7 innings in 5 years apparently. That left me scrambling in September, as I ran the numbers and saw the writing on the wall that Meatwads had more than enough ammo to pass me in saves. So I had to pass him in Wins (fail) and Ks (success) to help offset. I managed through Max Scherzer's 5 week injury and had enough to hold on.
Serious props to Meatwads for giving it a balls-out, incredible run. He did take the lead at one point, even if briefly, and was within 3-5 points for much of September. In the end, his choices to defer hitting games I believe did him in.
Big props to Thumper for making a nice run into 3rd. He is top-heave with top 10 studs Acuna, Bregman and Arenado leading the way on offense, with young aces Bieber and Paddack to start a formidable rotation. With his skillful dealmaking, I have no doubt he will contend in 2020.
ttucowboy also fell victim to several highly unfortunate injuries. Stanton, Glasnow and Haniger all missed most of the season. But he astutely picked up MANY strong contributors such as Minor, Boyd, D. Santana and Aquino to finish a strong 4th. Now let's see him turn those assets into another contender in 2020.
WG, as usual, crafted a strong team, riding Yuil Gurriel along with his stable of hitting keepers to a strong lineup. He supplemented that - despite the loss of Severino - with deft pitching acquisitions Minor, Stroman and Gray to finish in the money.
And props to Nerfherders for finishing 5th, riding the amazing Bellinger, the exploding Soler, a returning Didi and the explosive Hiura into a nice offense.
Overall I was extremely impressed with how so many in the league fought to the last out. Every category was contested, with both contenders having to EARN every point they had. bmd gets the "maximizing his GP and IP" award, posting the highest of each for the season.
We will soon turn our attention to the offseason. I will start a separate thread for rule change discussions, trade requests and the like. For now, it is great to take a breath and not worry about who to stream.
Thanks to all teams for such a great season.
Species † † † SuperDude † † †
ID: 07724916 † † † Tue, Oct 01, 2019, 17:52
Our Games Played minimum is 1375. By my count, four teams failed to meet the minimums:
Tree - 5 short = 1 demerit Greggo - 18 short = 1 demerit Khahan - 42 short = 2 demerits Fosten - 37 short = 2 demerits
Our Innings Pitched minimum is 1200. By my count, only Greggo fell short, and short by 82 innings. That equates to 5 demerits.
Our rules allow for the first 2 demerits to be waived/ignored. As such, Tree, Khahan and Fosten escape with no demerits in the end.
Greggo accumulated 6 total demerits. With two demerits forgiven, Greggo will be assessed a 4 demerit penalty on his draft position and resulting lottery seeding. That would make the regular draft order and lottery seeding as follows:
1) Tree 2) Khahan 3) Lyman 4) youngroman 5) Greggo (-4 demerits) 6) mjd 7) Great One 8) Guru 9) slizz 10) bmd 11) Fosten 12) blue hen 13) Tosh 14) darkside --- end of lottery --- 15) Nerfherders (tie) 15) WG (tie) 17) ttucowboy 18) Thumper 19) Meatwads 20) Species
Our rules mandate that the draft lotteries for both the Supplemental and Prospect drafts be completed within 30 days after the end of the season. There are definitely teams ready to start dealing, and we all need to see what picks are owned. I will ask Guru to run the lotteries sooner rather than later for this purpose. I will go ahead and start entering trades and create the draft grids and update as the lotteries are completed.
Let me know if there are any discrepancies.
Species † † † SuperDude † † †
ID: 07724916 † † † Tue, Oct 01, 2019, 17:53
PS to 493 -- if I can also impose upon Guru to run the 5th place tiebreaker between Nerf and WG, that would be lovely. Many thanks!
Species † † † SuperDude † † †
ID: 07724916 † † † Tue, Oct 01, 2019, 17:54
Correction to 493: actually Tree didn't 'earn' a demerit. He was less than 15 games short. Immaterial either way, but I should be accurate.
As such, the corrected base draft order and lottery seeding is as follows:
1) Tree 2) Lyaman 3) Khahan (-1 demerit) 4) youngroman 5) mjd 6) Great One 7) Greggo (-6 demerits) 8) Guru 9) slizz 10) bmd 12) blue hen 12) Fosten (-1 demerit) 13) Tosh 14) darkside --- end of lottery --- 15) Nerfherders (tie) 15) WG (tie) 17) ttucowboy 18) Thumper 19) Meatwads 20) Species
ID: 330592710 Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 12:42
Species asked me to do a random coin flip for a 5/6 tiebreaker (WG vs Nerf).
So I did.
ID: 07724916 Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 12:43
502: Thank you. That means WG receives the 15th place in the draft order. Nerfherders receives the 16th position.
ID: 305301811 Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 13:52
I'll take that to mean I actually came in 5th alone. ;)
ID: 15510187 Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 17:22
I finally verified all the data I downloaded through the ESPN API and compiled a lot of stats in a Google Sheet:
this sheet should contain most info needed for our history. I don't have the time right now to check which of these info is needed to be copied over to the G20 history sheet.
ID: 410452818 Wed, Oct 02, 2019, 23:16
Thanks Roman. Do you see roto points by cat anywhere? Thatís the only thing missing. Could grab it from our standings page, but I canít access the site.
ID: 15510187 Fri, Oct 04, 2019, 19:05
bh - added points sheet
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