Subject: RIBC 2020: Draft Rationale Collection thread|
Posted by: Guru
-  Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 23:38
RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.
Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.
Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.
When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence.
|Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.|
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 12:47
18.12 (284) Justin Smoak, 1B, MIL|
A bench pick to back-up for CI/UTIL. Smoak has an elite walk rate, and is coming off a really odd season where he was nowhere close to his x-Stats. Another bat that I look forward to seeing how he’ll do at Miller Park. Hoping for a come-back season. Thoughts on the eighteenth round: Really liked these picks (Austin Hayes, Josh James, Alex Wood).
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 13:05
18.14 Ross Stripling, SP, LAD|
I arrived at this pick after addressing a series of "if" and "only if" statements:
Only if there is a baseball season this year does it make sense to draft anyone in this round.
If it is round 18, then the person I'm drafting is more likely than not to end up contributing very little to my team, and it thus makes sense to lean on upside plays.
If there is a baseball season, then I want talented players on my team.
If there is a baseball season, MLB may end up squeezing more games into a typical month of play.
If MLB squeezes more games in to a typical month (such as by having more double-headers), teams will need more than 5 starters on a regular basis.
If teams need more than 5 starters, then quality swing men increase in value.
If the Dodgers plan on having a rotation that includes Kershaw, Price, and Wood, they will definitely need a sixth starter to fill in for those guys when they are injured.
As I see it, Ross Stripling is a talented swing man for the Dodgers whose upside is making 10+ starts for a first place team with SP3 ratios.
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 15:57
18.10 Joshua James, RP, HOU |
I'd been considering Josh James for a few rounds but still debated this pick for a while because of the uncertainty regarding whether or not he'll start the year in the rotation. Assuming that Verlander is back by the eventual start of the season, James and a few others are stuck competing for the 5th starter role, and it feels like a 50/50 shot.
It's late enough in the draft that I'll take the chance because James has a lot of upside and fits the mold of the type of SP I'm trying to roster at this point.
Hopefully he'll begin the year as the 5th starter and perform well enough to stay there, but at worst, he should be a swingman (and then his K rate would likely be closer to the 14.7 K/9 he put up in relief last year than the 11-12 K/9 in most of his projections).
19.07 Dellin Betances, RP, NYM
With no players of particular interest among the low-ADP options, I decided that I would just take Jesse Winker really early even if it probably wasn't necessary.
My pick was #295, and Winker went at 337 and 364 in the AAAs.
62 OF had been drafted at this point: Winker was drafted as OF #76 and OF #91 in the AAAs.
mailedfoot, the only manager remaining before my pick, already had 5 OF-eligible players.
I considered not even adding a 2nd player to my queue before going to bed but threw in Betances just to be safe. When I woke up and saw I had drafted Betances, my first thought was that either I accidentally put them in the wrong order or there was a draftime error. I still can't believe that mailedfoot took Winker there, but that's RIBC for you. To paraphrase Billy Joel,
"missed out on Winker now you're stuck debating Nick Solak-ak-ak-ak / you oughta know by now"
Last year was not particularly healthy for Betances. He missed the first 2/3 of the season, finally got into a game, struck both batters out, and then tore his Achilles, missing the rest of the season. The lone bright spot is that his -2.79 FIP and xFIP might be the best in MLB history.
Betances' career line is a ridiculous 2.36/1.04 with 14.6 K/9. A return to anything close to that would be immense value. Steamer is more reserved, projecting 3.03/1.15 and 12.9 K/9, which I would still be happy with.
Last year Edwin Diaz had a 5.59/1.38 line, and while his sky-high BABIP and HR/9 makes it seem like bad luck, he had the 3rd-highest Hard Hit% in the MLB (48.1%), so if the ball is as juicy as it was last year, there's a decent chance Betances could end up closing.
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:11
18.15 Teoscar Hernandez - OF - TOR|
Has career marks of 304 and 476 for OBP and SLG over more than 1000 at bats. That is likely who he is. Statcast loves his power so maybe he can find the barrel a bit more or get hot over a short season for me. For now he is an extra bat to maybe get in the lineup in good match-ups or when on a heater.
19.02 Britton, Zack - RP - NYY
Drafted for ratio stats, hopefully can keep the walks down to keep WHIP down.
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:28
19.03 Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, WAS|
The other part of the Nationals 1B platoon, so on any given day I should have either Thames or Kendrick playing. Kendrick has defied age, and put up some ridiculous numbers month after month last year in his limited playing time (outside of July, his lowest OPS for any month last year was .912). I'll gladly take 3-4 games a week of 340/475 production, with positional flexibility as a bonus.
Curiosity of this draft - last year in RIBC, not a single team drafted two catchers, and going into round 25, there were 5 teams who didn't yet have a catcher, including the eventual league champ. This year, by the first pick of Round 21, four different teams have 2 catchers (2 returning managers, 2 newly promoted). I don't know that I've ever seen the two-catcher approach pay off. Rarely is a C2 better than the options at the DH slot. Unless the catchers are on the same team, I don't know how much it helps you maximize games played at catcher. And with fewer total games to be played this year, my math tells me that the gap between the middle and the bottom of the catcher ranks will be reduced.
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:37
19.05 (293) Jonathan Schoop, 2B, DET|
This was a hard pick. I knew coming into the draft that 2B wasn’t overly deep, and I should have prioritized it in the early rounds (Maybe Ketel instead of Starling in the 3rd?), but considering the price I can’t complain. It wasn’t so long ago that I Schoop was going in the 5th/6th round. It’s true that he’s not playing in Camden Yards anymore, but he’s still projected to hit 5th in an AL lineup. That should bring decent counting stats (minus SBs). Thoughts on the nineteenth round: Overall, pretty solid drafting in this round. Nothing that had me scratching my head too much… considering we are around the 300 pick mark, that seems pretty good.
Wed, Mar 25, 2020, 19:40
18.11 Alex Wood, SP, LAD |
Wood is slated to be part of the Dodgers’ rotation and began spring training with an uptick in velocity. If healthy, he should provide solid stats across the board and have plenty of chances at wins pitching in front of the Dodgers lineup.
19.06 Jesse Winker, OF, CIN
Winker is projected for something like .370/.460 and will be hitting in a decent lineup so should get his share of counting stats. The problem is that the Reds outfield is crowded and everyday playing time is not guaranteed. Hopefully, I will have enough lineup flexibility to take advantage when he does play.
|148||Uptown Bombers |
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 05:08
19.10 Tony Watson, RP, SFO|
Dart throw at Saves. Was the presumed closer heading into the spring before some shoulder tightness. Last articles I read were optimistic that the injury was not serious. The delay to the season allows him to recover and hopefully reclaim his status as option #1 for saves.
|149||Matt G |
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 08:55
19.04 Mauricio Dubon 2B, SF There's been talk about him playing 2B a lot, and CF a lot and some SS as well, they are finding ways to get him into the lineup. I'm pretty high on Dubon and he's a guy I've reached for in a few drafts. With enough ABs I believe he is a 20/20 guy. His OBP could be a bit better but he helps me in steals and runs for now and won't kill my SLG. Plus with eventual position flexibility I can move him around.
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 10:58
19.12 Danny Jansen, C, TOR-He had been having a great spring, and RotoWire predicts a possible breakout season, so why not at 19.12?|
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 15:31
20.05 Steven Matz, SP, NYM-I have always liked Matz. In fact when he and Syndergaard came up at the same time, I liked Matz more despite all the hype that the latter was getting. He is often injured, but if he stays healthy, he should do well. He also was having a good spring training.
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 19:06
Sorry about missing pick again. A lot going on in NY/NJ.
|153||Uptown Bombers |
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 20:19
20.07 Yonny Chirinos, SP, TB|
Shout out to Slizz for drafting Wil Myers. 4 of the last 5 years, I have drafted him in my respective RIBC league. Sometimes it worked out, sometimes it didn’t. Heading into this year, I promised myself I wouldn’t do it again. But this late in the draft Wil Myers was starting to tempt me again. He was calling to me like the One Ring called to Gollum….my Myers, my precious….Glad to have him off the table.
As for Chirinos, I wanted to add some more quality pitching stats. Last year’s ratios were pretty good even if his K rate is lower than preferred.
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 22:28
20.10 Domingo Santana, OF, CLE |
Santana has been a tolerable back-end OF starter, averaging .343/.453 with fairly good R/RBI rates and a few SB sprinkled in.
He has also shown flashes of upside: last year he had an .850 OPS before getting hurt. He had an .876 OPS and 15 SB in 2017, his only fully-healthy season. He has power and an excellent walk rate. He's somehow only 27 years old.
Of course, the injuries are an issue, and likely part of why most projections had him at 400-500 PA (prior to the COVID-19 delays). Hopefully being DH will help him stay healthy.
21.07 Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF
Yastrzemski came out of nowhere last year (as much as the grandson of a Hall-of-Famer can come out of nowhere) to put up an .852 OPS. He's slated to be a full-time starter and bat either leadoff or 5th (weird pairing of options). None of the projections I look at have his OPS any higher than .763 this year, but I disagree.
Do I have any solid reasoning/stats to back up this disagreement? No, not really. It's the 21st round and I'm short on OF and I'm just doing a lot of hoping at this point.
Maybe his power increase last year was legitimate!
Maybe something clicked when he got traded from the Orioles system to the Giants system, allowing him to finally live up to his full potential!
Probably not, but for now, let me hope!
Thu, Mar 26, 2020, 23:54
20.15 Pearson, Nate - SP - TOR|
The first starter that I have drafted in this format in several years. I see value here due to the shortened season I expect he will likely be with the Jays opening day or shortly after. Most articles I read predict him to be their number 2 starter right away. Ideally for me he starts hot and I trade him as I don't plan on competing in wins or k's.
I really wanted Nick Solak here, I think that was a great pick in this round by Kemics.
21.02 Shaw, Travis - 1B - TOR
I wanted some depth at CI, hopefully he can provide this. He is 3B eligible and will gain 1B shortly into the season. He also has a pretty clear path to at bats in Toronto. This should give me time to see if he can rebound from an awful year in 2019 or if its time for him to hit the waiver wire.
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 00:02
20.12 (316) Luis Urias, 2B/SS, MIL|
He fills my last hitter starter spot, and the position eligibility will mean he can potentially cover for either MI slot if necessary. At the moment, that only leaves Catcher, 3B, MI as the only positions that don’t currently have “contingencies” in place. Injuries happen, it’s part of the game, so best to be as ready as possible for when they come. Urias had a .998OPS last year in the minors. I’m hoping that the extra time off right now can allow him to win-out the starting SS job, and bring his bat into that great lineup. Based upon ADP, I may have reached a round or two, but I’m good with that. Thoughts on the twentieth round: Not too much to say, I hope that kemics know that Nick Solak is DH only in ESPN?
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 03:43
20.14 Anthony Desclafani, SP, CIN|
Picks like these are always regrettable. What's the point? Unless he starts off on fire, he'll be dropped for someone else.
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 03:46
21.03 Dylan Cease, SP, CHI|
The stat nerds love this guy. I've read things like "Blake Snell 2018" and "Lucas Giolito 2019". I don't see it. But at this point in the draft, it's better to swing big than waste a pick on someone like Anthony Desclafani.
|159||Matt G |
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:38
20.13 Nick Solak, DH, Tex Before Covid Solak was going to be the starting LF for Tex, but he's also expected to see time at 2B and 3B. The eligibility won't be there right away, but he's another one I'm higher on that most. He's above average on most tools could hit 20 hrs and steal 10 bases and once I can slide him into multiple positions he gains even more value but to start he will play every day.
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:46
21.05 (325) Garrett Richards, SP, SD|
It’s hard to put a lot of faith in a Pitcher who doesn’t have triple digit IPs since 2015 (TJ in 2018); However he's looked good in his limited IPs this spring. Based upon ability / opportunity, having a great pitch mix, and the projected #2 Pitcher in SD, I think I can take the risk. Legitimate Ace Upside, Legitimate less than 100 IP (again) risk. Thoughts on the twenty-first round: Holt was forced to grab Rich Hill to replace Brendan McKay who was just announced as not having made the roster/rotation. That is the 2nd High-Risk/High-Reward casualty that he’s suffered so far during the draft.
|161||Matt G |
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 08:50
21.04 Mike Fiers, SP, OAK I'm skeptical the attention he will receive as the Stros whistleblower will be a distraction this year. Otherwise he's good for 30+ starts a decent whip and an ok ERA. Hoping to use him as a spot starter. With so many High Innings guys on my team I need a few guys that I can just swap in and out of the lineup when they have a good matchup. |
|162||Uptown Bombers |
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 12:36
21.10 Daniel Vogelbach, OF, SEA|
I would prefer this pick to have either 3B or OF eligibility but I’ll have to find a player later for that I guess. Vogelbach offers some protection for Nunez and Davis by offering some power and RBI upside. I’ll have to sit him against lefties but if he can hit right handers all season like he did in the first half of last year, he’ll be a bargain at this price.
P.S. – I agree with KDL212 on the value of catchers at this point, especially with the details of an abbreviated season unknown. I still need a starting C but don’t have one I prefer over the others, so I’ll pass at least one more round.
P.P.S. – Thanks mmikulka. I spent most of my Wednesday night singing “Solak-ak-ak-ak”
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 18:40
20.11 Hirano, Yoshihisa - SEA – RP |
It is not clear who will close for the Mariners so I took Hirano here hoping he can land the job, pitch effectively, and collect some saves.
21.06 Belt, Brandon – SF – 1B
Belt has a close to full time gig as the Giants 1B, so I will try to take advantage of match ups and get him into my lineup against righties (.341/.427 last year). He is only 32, still young enough to put up some big numbers if he has a magical season.
|164||Uptown Bombers |
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 18:42
22.07 David Fletcher, UTL, LAA|
This pick was mostly about versatility. He doesn’t have a starting position but is regarded as a strong defender. I trust Joe Maddon’s ability to find starts for him all over the field. Maddon has a track record of using these kinds of super-utility players. Fletcher got on base last year, which he will have to do again to be a regular in the lineup. I read some Angels fan sites clamoring for Fletcher to play more, so I’m trusting that if the fans like him, then he’s performing up to their expectations. Being able to plug him into 4 positions will serve useful in this format, provided his defense and OBP keep him in the lineup.
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 20:52
21.12 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET-It is possible that my first baseman may start the season in the minors, so I needed Cabrera to fill that possible void.|
22.05 Rick Porcello, SP, NYM-Oh no, a second SP from the Mets. I had Porcello during his CYA season where he helped and then the following year where he hurt. He has had a good spring and a needed another SP, so he is another “why not.”
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 22:36
22.12 (348) Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, BOS|
A good defender (guaranteed ABs), who is extremely streaky at the plate. Playing in Boston though, he should see plenty of counting stat opportunities, and he normally projects for ~750OPS w/10 steals. More of a high floor (un-sexy) pick. Thoughts on the twenty second round: I was hoping that one of the Angel MI-eligible guys (Simmons or Fletcher) would be available here, but I have another couple options from Seattle that I’m considering with my next pick.
Fri, Mar 27, 2020, 23:59
23.05 (357) Shed Long, 2B, SEA|
Middle Infielders are definitely my least proven positions, so I needed to grab a guy with upside here, who could cover in case Urias isn’t ready to go out of the gate, or if someone else goes down with injury. He’s currently penciled in as the lead-off hitter and starting second baseman for the Mariners. Projections seem to have him around 320/400 with 7-10 steals. Seems like a decent security option. Thoughts on the twenty third round: quoting Guru: “wow - Buster Posey in round 23. Doesn't seem like that many seasons ago that he was the first catcher off the board.”
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 00:06
24.12 (380) Tyler O'neill, OF, STL|
Time for another swing for the fences pick. O’neil’s upside is tied to his ability to cut down on his strikeout rate. If he can do that, he should be the incumbent clean-up hitter (not currently penciled in though) for the Cardinals. It’s not impossible to see him find his way to 850+ OPS and 5+ SBs.
25.05 (389) Adam Ottavino, RP, NYY
Last pick of the draft, just grabbing an RP who can help out the ratios a bit. Playing for the Yankees in potentially high leverage situations, should be able to pick up the occasional W and S.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 01:50
22.14 Will Harris, RP, WAS|
I think there is a decent chance he will end the season with the most saves of anyone on the Nationals. Thought about Austin Riley, but (wrongly) figured I'd have him to think about at my next pick.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:02
23.03 Jorge Alfaro, C, MIA|
With Austin Riley swiped on the turn, I had a decision to make here: draft (1) Jesus Aguilar, the last remaining clean-up hitter on the board, and just a year removed from a very productive season, (2) Chris Taylor, who appears likely to start the season as the Dodgers second baseman while Gavin Lux is in AAA not accruing service time for a month, or (3) pick one of several catchers still on the board.
I talked myself into Chris Taylor making it back to me in the 24th round (he did!). But I knew Aguilar wouldn't. Aguilar's upside was certainly higher than any of the catchers I was considering, so I probably should've gone Aguilar, and then taken whatever the draft left me at catcher in Round 24/25.
But I read something that convinced me that Alfaro had a chance to distance himself from the likes of Chirinos, Suzuki, Perez, Castro, and Posey: he has insane exit velocity. Trouble is, he has a low launch angle and strikes out a ton. But if he progresses just a bit, and raises his launch angle a bit, at age 26, he could put up a 325/450 season with a few steals. So I went Alfaro, and regretted it the moment I did.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:08
24.14 Chris Taylor, 2B/SS/OF, LAD|
It seems like the Dodgers don't plan to start the year with Gavin Lux at 2B - they can get an extra year of control if he spends something like 5 weeks in AAA, and he'd been playing a lot of DH in spring training. If that's true, and they go with Chris Taylor for 5-6 starts a week (whether at second or all over the diamond), then I can get some nice all-around production out of a guy with maximum roster flexibility (maybe he even adds 3B if Turner misses time as he often does). As a bonus, he's Corey Seager insurance.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 02:16
25.03 Jose Alvarado, RP, TAM|
Every year, I've still got 5 guys in my queue that I'd love to roster, and only one more roster spot to fill. I wish we had 28-30 roster spots/rounds of the draft. It would allow/encourage a bit more gambling in the draft, reduce the ease of in-season streaming, and (maybe) encourage a bit more trading activity.
So, out of a bunch of targets still on my board, I went with Jose Alvarado, who had a nightmare last season after a solid April that involved both personal matters with his Mom and injuries. Sure, the Rays have Nick Anderson and his silly stats from last year, but they also like to spread the bullpen around. And they wouldn't be the first team to hold back on a stud reliever pre-arbitration, so maybe Anderson doesn't actually get the bulk of the save opportunities.
|173||Matt G |
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:20
22.13 Francisco Mejia, C, SD Is this the year he finally realizes all that potential? I believe with adequate playing time he will be a top 10 C. |
23.04 Zach Eflin SP, PHI Surprised he was still around, doesn't produce that Ks that I'd like by could have a stud start here or there. More than likely just going to spot start him as needed.
24.14 Zach Davies SP SDG Same deal as eflin, just a depth pick at this point, didn't like any of the relievers that were there I'll wait and waiver wire a few saves if necessary.
25.04 Dee Gordon 2B, OF SEA Steals and only steals here, I'll slide him in from time to time to boost that category, but only when he's getting the playing time to make a difference.
|174||Uptown Bombers |
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:26
23.10 Robinson Chirinos, C, TEX|
With both Robinson and Yonny drafted, my team should be renamed Honey Nut Chirinos.
Some point around round 10, I put a list of several catchers into my queue and decided I could survive with any of them. A few had upside potential (S. Murphy, Alfaro, Mejia) and a few were more conservative options. Chirinos is the last one to survive in my queue. This morning (Friday, 3/27), I thought about adding Posey to the list and drafting him over Chirinos (Happy birthday Buster!) but stuck to my original instinct. I still think Posey, who got drafted shortly after by the other team needing a catcher, would be just as good an option at this stage.
24.07 Marwin Gonzalez, OF/CI MIN
No upside here, just a steady vet with eligibility at 3 positions. Between Gonzalez and Fletcher, I should be able to plug most line-up holes in the short term, while looking out for a long term addition in the FA pool. I don’t know the prospects that well compared to most of the folks in the boards, as I don’t play in any dynasty leagues. I’ve read about some of the younger players still available but have no strong opinions on them. So, I settled on the boring pick.
25.10 Trevor Gott, RP, SF
Another dart at the SF closer situation.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 10:39
22.11 Simmons, Andrelton - LAA – SS |
Simmons is depth for MI positions. He had a down year last year, but the two previous years were pretty good and I’m hoping for a return to form. He is capable of double-digit steals if enough games get played.
23.06 Gausman, Kevin – SF – SP
Gausman will open the year in the Giants rotation and I expect him to pitch decently if healthy. He spent time pitching out of the bullpen last year and there has been some speculation he might return to that role. If that happens I would expect him to pitch in high leverage situations, possibly as a closer.
24.11 Kim, Kwang Hyun - STL – SP
Kim figures to open the season in the Cardinals rotation and has looked impressive this spring. The Cardinals have a good track record with pitchers, so I decided to take a chance with him.
25.06 Stanek, Ryne – MIA - RP
Stanek figures to pitch in high leverage situations for the Marlins and could quite possibly end up as their closer under the right circumstances. Basically I am fishing for saves here.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 12:42
22.15 Margot, Manuel - OF - TB|
Late steals seem the scarcest thing in 2020. Margot was a former high level prospect who get a change of scenery. The Rays typically mix and match lineups more then most so hopefully he can gain some starts early for his defense and find at least a platoon role. If he plays he'll run.
I had two prospects, Adell and Carlson taken earlier this round from the top of my queue. Rare to lose two so late in this draft. Short season could bump up some prospects I think.
23.02 Petit, Yusmeiro - RP - OAK
A fly ball pitcher who plays in a giant park. Consistently has a very low WHIP which why I went for him over other handcuff options.
24.15 Santander, Anthony - OF - BAL
O man I'm glad I'm not an O's fan. This guy is supposed to bat third for you? Ouch. I bet he doesn't make my opening day roster. At best, I'll hold and hope for a hot start.
25.02 Dolis, Rafael - RP - TOR
Handcuff for Giles. I will likely just keep him on the bench unless in line for a save that day.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 12:43
23.12 Tommy Kahnle, RP, NYY-With my next picks I wanted to get help with ratios and strikeouts.|
24.05 Pedro Baez, RP, NYY-Help with K’s and ratios and a handcuff for Kenley Jansen.
25.12 Chad Green, RP, NYY-As with my last 2 picks, help with ratios and Ks.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 15:02
22.10 Cole Hamels, SP, ATL |
Hamels hasn't been an ace in a while, but over the past 3 years he has still averaged about 3.90/1.28. I'd be happy with that kind of of production from my back-end SPs.
He had a shoulder injury flare up and would have had to miss the beginning of the season, but now he should have plenty of time to return to full health.
23.07 Stephen Piscotty, OF, OAK
Piscotty was an exciting prospect once upon a time. As recently as last year, Fangraphs' blurb said "Firmly in his prime, Piscotty is a solid mid-tier power bat who has the skills to plateau at or around his 2018 level for the next few seasons. He’s fairly priced, too, checking around the 40 to 50 range among all outfielders."
Piscotty has hit .336/.447 so far and he has plenty of SLG upside. He has averaged 82 R and 87 RBI in his two full seasons.
He is also currently dealing with an intercostal sprain, which is only the latest incident in what he recently described as an "eight-month perpetual cycle of hurt" which doesn't sound particularly promising... but there aren't many OF with playing time, upside, and a decent floor in the 23rd round, so it's worth taking a shot.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 15:46
19.16 Mckay, Brendan SP TAM |
Absurd minor league numbers so far. He was sent to the minors but that doesn't necessarily mean I will need to cut him. Will see how things shake out.
20.01 Rodgers, Brendan 2B COL
.350 .413 .622 in AAA last year. former 3rd overall draft pick in 2015. Kind of a dart throw at some MI upside. He was terrible when called up to the majors briefly last season but he does offer a lot of potential in the Rockies lineup.
21.16 Hill, Rich SP MIN
I'm a glutton for punishment with this guy. He's usually lights out when you start him, which is usually a month or two since his previous start. If he ever managed to get a full season of starts he would be Cy Young material, but that's crazy talk.
22.01 Murphy, Tom C SEA
I may go through 20 catchers this year, who knows? But I'll start with Murphy. He had a .273 .324 .535 slash in the majors last season, and a career minor/major slash of .271 .334 .524 so I'm not worried about him dragging my team down.
23.16 Aguilar, Jesus 1B MIA
I think everyone is fairly well familiar with this guy. He has been great, and he has been terrible. Most recently he was terrible, but here he is at the end of the draft, and I have a need for a corner infielder who is lined up for a lot of at bats. so I'll take a chance and see if he can be great again.
24.01 Kopech, Michael SP CWS
Kopech had been on my radar for a few rounds, so when I saw he was still there I just drafted him with no deliberation. He's another top prospect 100mph guy, and my other dart throws at SP seemed to call for yet another dart throw. He was optioned to the minors yesterday but I'll keep him around for a while and see if anything shakes out.
25.16 Reyes, Victor OF DET
Very last pick of the draft. He'll probably be cut from my roster before too long but he does have decent 20 SB type speed. Not a huge bat but his numbers last year in AAA (.304 .334 .481) and MLB (.304 .336 .431) weren't shabby.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 16:28
24.10 Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY |
After mostly ignoring starting pitching through the first 9 rounds, I have been drafting my SP with a heavy bias toward the W and K categories. All of my SPs are coming off seasons with a K/9 over 9, and all of them except Ohtani are playing for teams who had 97+ wins last season.
That should give me options when we get towards the final 1/3 of the season: if my pitching turns out like I'm hoping and I have a lot of ERA/WHIP roto points to maintain or gain, there's always a bunch of low-walk-rate pitchers like Pineda or Means or Yarbrough available to spot start because nobody wants to roster their weak K rates.
If my pitchers are doing poorly, this strategy should allow me to salvage my pitching category points by abandoning ERA/WHIP and getting toward the top in K/W by choosing mediocre spot starters with high K rates and good matchups.
Most projections only have Montgomery around ~8.5 K/9 this year, which is more in line with his career averages. He has also averaged 3.91/1.26, and at age 27 he's young enough to take a step up. Montgomery looked great in his limited spring training action, and his fastball is 2 mph faster than he has ever thrown it before. The AL East has a rough set of stadiums to pitch in, but the rest of the division looks weaker than it has in a long time.
25.07 Aristides Aquino, OF, CIN
Since our rosters will be frozen for an extended period of time, I wanted my last pick to be somebody whose value could potentially rise significantly over the next 2 months.
The plan is currently for Aquino to start the season in AAA, but if any of the 5 OF on the Reds get hurt, Aquino could be in line for meaningful playing time right off the bat.
Aquino also had a terrible start to spring training (0-14 with 6 Ks), and that likely contributed to the AAA decision. If there ends up being another brief spring training session (summer training?) when the MLB resumes, he might have a chance to go on a hot streak and redeem himself.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 16:46
18.04 - Pomeranz, Drew, RP, SD - Was torn on going Pom Pom or Oberg here. Its universally accepted that Pomeranz is the superior pitcher, but will likely see 0 save opportunities working behind Yates. That said, Oberg has been remarkably consistent for Colorado and will likely inherit the job after Davis falters. Man, I remember Wade Davis was once the most dominant RP in baseball...he's gone from that to nobody thinks he can do the job anymore.|
I began to look at reasons to not take Pomeranz...and couldn't do it. I already have elite SP and getting a lockdown bullpen would go along way to assuring me at least 60 points in pitching. I've always been a fan of starters who move to the bullpen and gain velocity on their stuff. Pomeranz is one of those types. What is intriguing is that the Padres are loaded in the bullpen and most of those arms aren't equipped for a multi-inning role like Pomeranz is. Signs point to that multi-inning role, which could net more wins than what is projected for him...that would give his value a larger boost. If he replicates what he did in Milwaukee (2.39 ERA, .91 WHIP, 45k in 26 IP), I have Josh Hader minus the saves. In Milwaukee he was that good...If he doesn't? I'll wish I had Oberg *gulp*.
19.13 - Myers, Wil, OF, SD - He was staring at me long enough and, at this point in the draft, is well worth the pick. His contract virtually guarantees he will see playing time, but there is a concerning downtrend in his usage as he saw only 490 PA in 155 games (2019)...meaning the Padres have a quick hook on him. Only 7 players with at least 75 HR / 75 SB over the past four season:
Rd. 1 ADP
Trout - 146 HR / 87 SB
Yelich - 119 / 77
Lindor - 118 / 81
Betts - 116 / 97
Jose Ramirez 102 / 97
Rd. 2/3 ADP
Jose Altuve - 92 / 85
...Near 300 ADP, Wil Myers - 87 / 77. And that is including his injury shortened 2018 season. For a rotational bat, I could do a lot worse.
20.04 - Karinchak, James, RP, CLE - All about ratios here. Karinchak just mows down everyone he faces...figure why not get him for some valuable K/9 depth. Also prevented Foot from getting. We had a bidding war on him in Ottoneu and he forced me to pay more than I wanted...but that was all in good fun. Fun fact - he does the shooter mcgavin whenever he strikes someone out.
21.13 - Carter Kieboom, 3B/SS, WSH - I think the Nats want him to win the job out of spring training / delayed start to the year...but my guess is that he doesn't and stays down as Asdrubal Cabrera is more than capable of holding down the hot corner while Starlin Castro / Kendrick can platoon at 2B. If he does win the job...this is valuable bench depth. Sad that I'd think about cutting my 21st round pick already.
22.04 - Adell, Jo, OF, LAA - We all know I love me some Jo Adell...and it's only a matter of time before he is among the top 25 players picked in a RIBC draft. I was fortunate to take a flier on Tatis Jr. last time and with the shortened season we might see expanded rosters earlier due to the volume of games played. If Adell is sent down, chances are I won't sit around for long as RIBC those depth spots are soooooo valuable.
23.13 - Posey, Buster, C, SF - Thought long and hard about taking a 2B here like Profar to start the first 10 games. With Kingery set to man 2B all year for Philly, he will gain 2B eligibility by the 2nd week.
As Smith & 9th noted, 5 teams had 2 catchers already by the 19th round. I didn't want to risk floating him any longer. Here's to hoping he still has some juice left...but I'm not holding my breath. Only positive about Posey is that he won't kill my ratios. If he was taken I would've just burned my 25th round pick on a catcher and went Profar.
24.04 - Miller, Andrew, RP, STL - Flier on a bullpen arm. With the delayed start to the season, Miller will have an opportunity to "break camp" with the team. The cards are notorious for manipulating their pen to save money in arbitration. While Gallegos is one of their better arms, I could see him losing the saves opportunities if Miller hasn't been used in the 9th b/c it would lower his Arb #. If not, first cut!
25.13 - Burnes, Corbin, RP, MIL - Pure spec play at upside. Like Keller, Burnes has nasty stuff...but has been an abomination. I will need to drop someone before the season starts to make room for a 2B streamer for the first few weeks of the season. Freddy Galvis anyone? hahaha
Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 12:00
8.06, Eduardo Escobar, 2b/3b, ARI|
Escobar is a boring a pick. Someone that doesn’t appear to have much upside and someone you just want to repeats last years numbers. He provides power which my team needs. He’ll be slotting in 2b most likely but having dual eligibility is a huge plus. I almost took Votto here. Votto seems like he could rebound and be a stud again or could become the next Pujols or Miggy.
9.11 Hansel Robles, RP, ANA
My first closer. I almost decided to completely punt saves when the first closer run hit. After the mid tier guys slipped some I decided to take one. Robles seems to have a semi secure job. He’s one of the better pitchers that have secured a closers role. My plan is to handcuff him later with Buttrey as a safety. Leclerc was probably my 2nd choice here.
Sun, Mar 29, 2020, 12:39
Officially catching up on my rationale updates to close this baby out!|
16.16 Rougned Odor, 2B, TEX
He strikes out way too much and will likely be hovering around the Mendoza line but the counting stats at a thin position will be there. And not many 2Bs at this stage of the draft will have 30+ homer potential. He's still in his mid 20s so maybe he can learn a bit more patience at the plate.
17.01 Jon Gray, SP, COL
I took him largely for his strikeout potential. 3 of the last 4 seasons he's cracked 150 with 2 of those at 180+. I also felt I had enough solid ratio guys to negate the slight ERA/WHIP bump from him.
18.16 Brett Gardener, OF, NYY
He had a career high 28 homers last year and has been hovering around the 20 mark for a few years now. Also, while his SBs seem to be waning now, Gardener still had 10 last year so that will help to chip in. He's hitting in one of the better lineups in AL and has been durable throughout career. Needing an OF at this point made him a no brainer.
19.01 Dustin May, SP, LAD
It looks like his side issue is completely healed now and with the delayed start he will have a chance to be solid player in the rotation. Either that or a Kenta Maeda type from last year. He showed promise in limited action last year.
20.16 Ryan Yarbrough, SP, TAM
I'm glad he was still available at this point. The kid is still young and has played well in his first couple of seasons so there's some upside here. His low K rate is kind of a downside.
21.01 Travis d'Arnad, C, ATL
He was actually really good last year on the Rays
and will have the majority share of starts behind the plate this year over Flowers for the Braves. It's nice to have a decent backup catcher too just to take advantage of the games limits from the spot which I often fail to completely fill.
22.16 Tyler Duffey, RP, MIN
Had a bit of a breakout season last year. I see The Doof having another productive high K low ratio season to help balance things out. These guys can be a good value for your squad.
23.01 Austin Riley, ATL, OF
Like it was said earlier in this draft, better to try a younger guy and hope for a lottery ticket. Riley is still a bit raw but will be hitting in a great lineup. I'm just hoping he makes some strides in his sophomore season.
24.16 Nico Hoerner, CHC, SS
I felt he was worth a late round flier. Just looking at him as a backup shortstop with some potential.
25.01 Forrest Whitley, HOU, SP
He may have a chance to be in the mix in the starting rotation this year if he can put it together. As one of the top 20 or so redraft 2020 prospects, you could do worst with your 25th round picks.
Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 13:44
10.06 Ryan McMahon, 2B/3B, COL|
Probably would redo this pick if I could. Was looking at Voit or another closer here but ultimately went with McMahon. His hard hit rate and playing in Coors should give him a high floor. They said he’ll get even more playing time this year. McMahon was one game short of qualifying at 1b last year so hopefully he can get to the ten games to qualify this year.
11.11 Christian Walker, 1b, Ari
I really needed a 1b and I had passed on them the previous couple of rounds. Decided to suck it up and take one I really wasn’t a fan of. Walker will hopefully duplicate last years numbers. No proud of this pick.
12.06 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Tor
That AL East move is scary. Ryu is notorious for pitching about half the year so this year will be perfect for him. His ratios are always good and he should still get wins with Toronto’s young line up. Really didn’t have a back up here as I made the pick on the fly.
13.11 German Marquez, SP, Col
What a difference a year makes. Marquez is defined by Coors. I think his k numbers will always be there. He shows signs of ace stuff especially away from Coors. Maybe should’ve went with another hitter here but I could resist the strikeouts.
Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 16:53
15.09 Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT|
Could it finally be the breakout season we have been waiting for by Musgrove? At 233 it is a gamble worth to take.
16.08 Christian Vazquez, C, BOS
After having taken swings (and missed) years prior to catchers like Buster Posey and Gary Sanchez in their bad years, I decided to wait on catchers. Ok, maybe Vazquez will not be a top 5 catcher, but his progresses doesn’t seem to be fluky.
17.09 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYM
At 265 as a MI, Cano seems a good gamble, on a player who, apart from last season, has always produced.
18.08 Hunter Renfroe, OF, TB
If Renfroe could win the RF job, he could contribute big time in SLG and also in RBI, taking a hit in the OBP … I hope the previous picks will offset this hit.
19.09 Miguel Andujar, UTIL, NYY
The upside and ability of Andujar are unquestioned, the problems are the bad defense and the competition. If the playing time will be there, the results will follow (and hopefully a position other than UTIL).
20.08 Matt Magill, RP, SEA
The last closer available, by closer charts, he was a dart throw for some saves before losing the job or before being traded.
21.09 Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR
At this time of the draft he was the highest of my board, but very similar to Renfroe. It was the third on the queue, after two SPs, who were promptly picked. My OBP gets weaker.
Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 00:18
14.06 Garrett Hampson, 2b/of, col|
Another guy with dual eligibility. I love having versatility in this league due to the shallow bench. Hampson needs playing time. Not sure he will get it but if he does he’s good for steals and won’t drag down the percentages too much. Should be a middle infield guy. If something happens to McMahon he’s a good insurance policy. No one else was really on my list. I like CMart and Cron picks that came after Hampson.
15.11 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL
1 year removed from a stellar season and he dropped like a rock. He got destroyed in the NLCS but if you watch the game he only made like 2 bad pitches and was on the short end on a few really close ball/strike calls that would’ve changed the inning. Folty is a strikeout guy that has always had control issues. 2nd half he started to put it back together. He pitched great in the minors when they sent him down. Another guy that I didn’t really have a queue for so no one else was on my radar.
16.06 Shogo Akiyama, OF, CIN
Who’s this guy? That’s the feeling I had about him before the draft. Should hopefully lead off for Cincy and be a decent obp guy with runs. I also considered Tsutsugo, Polanco, and Peralta here. Really like Tsutsugo but figured his playing time is a little less defined.
17.11 Miles Mikolas, SP, STL
Really didn’t need another SP but he had slipped too far. At this point it looked like June was the earliest point the season was going to start. That should hopefully be long enough for Miles to be healthy. definitely a question mark though.
Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 00:28
18.06 Mitch Haniger, OF, Sea|
The all DL team is apparently what I’m going for at this point. Haniger has had notable injuries the past year. His recovery time is unknown and it’s unknown if he’ll be 100%. That said, if healthy he’s probably a 10th round pick. I like the Alcantara pick but I couldn’t pick another SP so had to pass
19.11 Scott Oberg, RP, Col
Another Colorado Rockies pitcher, I’m really asking for trouble. Oberg is 2nd in line for saves. I really doubt Wade Davis keeps the job for long. The Wil Myers pick and Choi picks later were both guys I considered.
20.06 Ty Buttrey, RP, ANA
A handcuff for Robles. Really like other RPs better but I needed to lock down one teams saves situation. Probably one of my first drops if Robles is lights out his first couple of outings. Luis Urias was someone I considered by PT was a concern.
21.11 Jose Martinez, OF, Tam
Really don’t like this pick. Hoping the Rays can work some devil magic on Martinez. Playing time is a concern but I’m hoping being a DH will allow Martinez to thrive. Considered Miggy, Kieboom, and Barnes here. Not sure how I feel how all of them going right after my pick.
Tue, Mar 31, 2020, 23:44
22.06 Dylan Carlson, OF, STL|
At this point everyone is a shot in the dark. Rookies even more so. Depending on when the season starts and how short it is will determine if and when Carlson gets called up. He’s a legit talent but without playing time he’s worthless. I had a few others on my radar but none that I really liked that much.
23.11 Aaron Bummer, RP, CHW
Colome is on a 1 year deal so if the season starts in July there’s a decent chance he gets traded if the White Sox start off slow. Bummer is a decent gamble for saves.
24.06 Aaron Hicks, OF, NYY
Officially team “Aaron”. Hicks recovery time looks promising that he’ll be ready if the season starts in July. He’s a decent ratio guy for round 24. His health is the question mark. Figured it’s worth gambling that the season starts late and he’ll be ready.
25.11 Jordan Hicks, RP, STL
Speaking of the season starting late... Hicks return is unknown at this point. I think July is unlikely but possibly August. If season is extremely shortened I think he could be rushed back. I figured it’s worth the gamble to get a potential closer. He’ll be easy to drop if and when the season start is announced and he’s not ready.
Wed, Apr 01, 2020, 07:09
22.08 Pablo Lopez, SP, MIA|
Last year at this time he was the talk of the town, one of the possible surprises of the season … he gave some glimpse, but overall it didn’t pan out, due also to an injury, let’s see this year.
23.09 Nick Ahmed, SS, ARI
Good defensive abilities lead to plenty of playing time, good for cumulative stats for a reserve infielder.
24.08 Nathan Eovaldi, SP, BOS
Shooting in the dark for a last hurrah for Nathan, after the injury marred last season. Or he may be the first player I cut.
25.08 Josh Lindblom, SP, HOU
Another shot in the dark for the return to the USA after two very good seasons in the KBO.
Wed, Apr 01, 2020, 16:18
3.15. Hiuraa, Keston – MIL – 2B|
He had a fantastic rookie season, it was enjoyable having him in my team. All around player, with high percentages, he had HR-s, SB-s too.
This year he was the 48th in the Yahoo ranking list, behind him a very strong Cactus league games, so It was an easy decision for me.
4.02. Gallo, Joey – TEX – OF
1B or OF? This was the question in this round. I wanted Yordan Alvarez, but he was picked up just before me, and considering Victor Robles. Maybe Gallo seems a too early selection, but I was sure in the next round he will not be available.
I like Gallo tipically over 40 HR-s in a 82 matches basis, and last year was a brakeout year for him with almost 1.0 OPS.
5.15. Nola, Aaron – PHI – SP
The basic plan was, in the first five round I will draft only batters. Beacuse of this I looked around for 1B-s. I was considering R. Hoskins, M. Sano and C. Santana.
But in this phase of the draft I saw only 7 top 100 SP-s, so I changed my mind, and decided picking up two realy good pichers. And Nola was available, and it was a very big surprise for me. Tha 42th Yahoo ranking player in the 5th round? Yes.
6.02. Woodruff, Brandon – MIL – SP
Glasnow or Woodruff were my candidates for t this round. Glasnow wenrt off and I was very satisfied with getting Woodruff.
Woodruff is better and better year for year, and my expectation is that he will be a top 20 starting pitcher this year. Woodruff production is very similar to Nola-s, relatively high strike out ratio, with wins end good percentages.
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