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0 Subject: Daily Blurb - March 165, 2010

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 11:36

Quote of the day
"First half, Shane [Battier] was playing a game with my face. Once I figured that out, it was just my natural rhythm." -- Denver forward Carmelo Anthony, after scoring 45 against Houston

Daily blurb
The Puerto Rico Open ended rather Lamely for GuruGolf, as no foursome even had the tournament winner. As expected, team scores were bunched, with a pair of teams carding a -51 for bestball, and another pair tying for the top worstball score of +38. On to the next tournament.

Speaking of the next tournament, the PGA event isn’t the only one starting on Thursday, in case you hadn’t noticed. If you are new to the Market Madness format, don't despair when you read the scoring rules. Even if you don't "get it", fill out a set of picks and try it for a year. Once you've lived through a tournament, you'll catch on, and be much better prepared next year. If you want a few simple tips, try these:

  • For your shorts, look for first round upsets, and short the loser. For example, if you think that Lehigh(16) will beat Kansas(1), then short Kansas. You might also try shorting one or two of the top seed baskets (1-3). For example, shorting the #1 seeds gives you plenty of opportunities to profit from an early upset - as long as the tournament doesn't go too “chalky”!
  • For longs, pick the 4 teams you expect to survive to the Final Four. In many instances, it's good to take those teams not only as single teams, but also in their basket forms - unless you think the other teams in those baskets are really overrated.
  • Pick one or two double-digit seeds as longs. These will pay off well if they make it to the Sweet 16.
Actually, my best advice is to use the scoring simulator. Pick each of the games as you would for a typical bracket, and then let the simulator calculate the returns under your scenario. Use those returns as a basis for your picks - picking your longs from the top of the listing, and your shorts from the bottom. Or let the simulator do that for you (if you're running it while logged in to the contest site).

Every year, there is a lot of attrition between the contest registrations and the actual entries. It's not unusual for as many as 25%-30% of the registrants to not submit a set of picks. I'm sure that some of that is simply forgetfulness, but I suspect a larger issue is the confusion factor. One of the dominant feedbacks that I get from people who play for the first year is that they felt pretty befuddled when making selections, but once they see how the tournament and the scoring play out, they can't wait for next year. The simulator was designed to help you get over that initial hump.

1Bond, James Bond
      Leader
      ID: 04352469
      Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 11:49
I love your March Madness contest Guru although I'm very poor at it. I hope that there's a lot of upsets this year.

BTW, you might want to change the date above....; > )
2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 19:55
Something wrong with March 165?
3Bond, James Bond
      Leader
      ID: 04352469
      Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 23:29
LOL... I just figured that the Ides of March had thrown you for a loop!
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