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Subject: RIFC 2006: Draft Rationales #1 Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Aug 16, 2006, 21:12 This thread will be for managers in the 2006 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick. Here are the ground rules: 1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.) 2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post. If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over. If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. 3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc. The general format should be: 1.01 Priest Holmes - RB, KC Several sentences of rationale. As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence. | ||||||
| 35 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 59652217 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:31 |
3.04 Jamal Lewis - RB, BAL Although I'm happy that I got the two RBs I did in the first two rounds, I felt it was necessary to backup the RB slot right away. Jamal was the only "target" pick left on my board. I had for some odd reason expected Dunn, and Chester Taylor to potentially be available here. Since I had Jamal lumped together with them, I think he's a good value now, 1 round later. | |||||
| 36 | Athletics Guy ID: 167191017 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 00:34 |
3.05 Chris Chambers, WR, MIA By taking Owens in the previous round, I planned on taking my second RB here. Too bad Lewis (1 pick away!) and Dillon were off the board by the time it got back to me. The other RBs available to me didn't seem very appealing. Rather than take my 2nd RB, I went with the best player available-approach and wound up with Chris Chambers. With the addition of Dumpty Bellpepper (name has been changed to protect the undrafted player's identity) as Miami's new QB, Chambers should have even better numbers than last season. | |||||
| 38 | The Beezer Leader ID: 191202817 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 06:29 |
3.06 Reggie Wayne - WR, IND I figured with all the RBs taken by the 7-14 slots that the pool wouldn't change too much there, so I took a pass on Addai or Foster. I didn't want a QB at this point as I think I can get better value later. Basically it came down between a top WR or Gates. I was planning on going Gates here until Wayne lasted all the way back to me. Tough call. I decided to take a look at what positions the guys behind me would need. I could easily see 7-8 WRs going off the board (actual count: 9), which would take nearly all the proven guys out of play. Also, I've had good success in the past taking TEs late, while 3rd round TEs have usually done OK at best for me. It's also possible that the QB change in SD will affect Gates, so there's a risk there that Wayne doesn't have. Plus, I really like Wayne. He's in an offense that if anything will be throwing more with Edge gone and the defense possibly regressing (just a hunch). Manning is still great and Harrison isn't getting any younger (althought I still think Marvin will perform the better of the two). 1K yards and 8 TDs seems like a lock barring unforseen circumstances, and it could be better if he starts seeing more balls in the red zone. | |||||
| 39 | culdeus ID: 25110210 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:36 |
3.07 DeShaun Foster RB Carolina Obviously I believe that you've gotta have at least 2 RBs in the first three. I didn't expect people to go with 3 so I thought I had a reasonable chance given the lack of WRs off the board to get a low 20s RB. That didn't really happen but Foster has at least a little upside if his floor is indeed pretty low. I think waiting around for Frank Gore was too much of a risk to take though looking back on how things shook out later on, Gore was probably worth this pick. | |||||
| 40 | Valkyrie ID: 25110210 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:40 |
3.08- Santana Moss, WR, Wash I was pleasantly surprised when a second and in my opinion the last of the top WR's fell to me. | |||||
| 41 | TB Sherpa ID: 031811922 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:46 |
3.09 Hines Ward, WR, PIT With my two starting running backs secured, it was time to get a top receiver. I was hoping to get Chris Chambers. Reggie Wayne, or Santana Moss in this spot but all three were quickly taken. Hines Ward isn't a top 10 receiver anymore, but he is in that next group of guys. His yardage has dropped slightly each of the past three seasons. I do think with Bettis retiring and his QB finally becoming proficient in this offense, that we might see Pittsburgh turn to the pass a little bit more than last year. I spent about twenty minutes debating the pros and cons of drafting Gates in this spot. In the end, I decided I would rather gamble at the TE position than at the WR spot. | |||||
| 42 | youngroman ID: 43441182 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 10:51 |
3.10 Antonio Gates, TE, SD a RB would be a reach with that many gone already. In the next 8 picks only 1 manager needs another starting slot filled at RB, maybe a 2nd one will be drafted, that leaves me with enough options left for my 4.05 pick. I haven't seen a WR standing out and the production that Gates can deliver is in the same range of the available WR, so why not take him? I assume that he can't repeat last years stats with a new QB (I could be wrong here too, because a TE can be the favorite target for a struggling QB), but he is clearly the best TE in the league right now and should do wonders for my team. | |||||
| 43 | For Guru Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:09 |
3.11 Donald Driver, WR, GNB With 3 picks to go before this one, I was surprised to see Gates still out there. If he had made it this far, I’d have grabbed him. He was a key ingredient to my squad last season. But, as usual, taken right before me… So instead, I’ll grab my first WR here. Roy Williams is a tempting alternative, but his injury history scares me away. Driver seems like a comparable and safer pick. His situation seems the same as last year, so I’m hoping for similar results. It’s been said that you can’t win your league based on the first few rounds of drafting, but you can lose it. Although none of my top three picks conjure up much excitement, as long as they stay healthy, I think I have a solid core (corps?) to build upon. One of these years, though, it would be fun to pick near the top of the order. | |||||
| 44 | For Doug Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:12 |
3.12 Roy Williams, WR, DET I'm suddenly a Lions fan I guess, LOL. I definitely wanted to get a solid WR1 as I felt things started dropping off quickly at this position... I can fill in with a couple WR sleepers or waiver wire pickups, but it certainly helps to at least have one solid player to start with! I really like Williams upside this year... a very physical WR entering the fabled "3rd year" of WR lore... an improved QB situation (IMHO)... and as I mentioned before, I'm very fond of the coaching changes in Detriot this year too. I'm not actually a Lions fan though. They don't commit enough penalties for my taste. Yes, only one team is truly capable of sustaining my lust for yellow hankies. Go Raiders! | |||||
| 45 | Motley Crue Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 11:13 |
3.13 Plaxico Burress, WR, NYG Had a hard time deciding between Darrell Jackson and Burress here, so I elected to not take the UF guy, as to avoid my personal bias. I had D-Jax ranked a shade higher, but when I did a final review of their respective stat lines from last year, I couldn’t resist the taller half of the dysfunctional dynamic duo (the other being Shockey, of course). I like Plaxico because he’s a proven commodity and he plays for a team with a solid, well-balanced offense and a very good QB. I think it’s imperative to have WR depth in a league where you must start three each week, and he’s close to a Top 10 player at the position. I anticipate the connection he has with his QB will improve this season, and if so, that ought to put Burress in the 1200 yard/10 TD zone. Anything above that is unexpected but welcome. I also notice I’m developing a theme of taking solid, low injury risk, veteran players. This gives me a comfortable feeling when I look at my roster, and I like that. It makes me want to drink a mug of warm cocoa and have a nap by the fire. | |||||
| 46 | For s_R Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 12:18 |
3.14 Andre Johnson, WR, Hou I expect here a big bounce-back and career numbers, especially with Moulds around. He has the size and the ball skills to make the big time catch. 4.01 Derrick Mason, WR, Bal RB-RB, WR-WR. Mason has become one of the more consistent receivers in the game. He hit 1000 yds for the fifth straight year. McNair back in the mix increases Mason's ceiling. Others I considered: Branch, Houshmandzadeh. | |||||
| 47 | Motley Crue Dude ID: 439372011 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 12:24 |
4.02 Darrell Jackson, WR, SEA So the Gator made it back to me. Sweet. I worry about his injury history, but otherwise D-Jax is a very good WR and a solid fantasy player. If he stays healthy all year, there's no doubt in my mind he'll hit 1200 yards and probably score 8+ times. I can live with those numbers, especially in tandem with Plaxico occupying one of my other WR slots. I realize at this point I am lacking depth at RB and I will have to address that later in the draft, as I did in 2005. It's not easy, but it can be done. This was the end of a serious WR run that saw 11 WR drafted in 14 picks. That may bode poorly for me, seeing that I got two of the last 3 taken. But I feel confident in what I have, especially in light of my QB at this point. | |||||
| 48 | for Doug ID: 43441182 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:31 |
4.03 Jonathan Vilma, LB, NYJ I knew this was "early", but with the 3 flex IDP slots this year I figured I'd get started since I saw a lot of value here. I play in several dynasty leagues with IDPs (7-9 of them) and LBs are the "RBs" of IDP. I considered Bulluck but there are several top-10 LBs with week 7 byes, so I figured Vilma was less likely to conflict with a potential later pick. I figured I might nab Bulluck if he made it back to me in round 5. In an ideal world, I'd have traded down with this pick... but I just didn't have the energy to even bother trying... suffice it to say that the timing of our draft worked out poorly for me this year. C'est la vie! | |||||
| 49 | for Guru ID: 43441182 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:31 |
4.04 Jeremy Shockey, TE, NYG
I’d obviously have preferred Gates, but Shockey could push him this season with a maturing QB situation in NY. I considered a 2nd WR at this spot, but couldn’t convince myself that the top guys were worth it. While I do think there is reasonable depth at TE this year, I decided to get in early and see if that might spur others to follow suit. I thought about a 3rd RB at this point as well, but the two top guys in my list have byes that align with my existing RBs, so I couldn’t find the right fit. And they all have uncertainties, too. | |||||
| 50 | youngroman ID: 43441182 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:32 |
4.05 Deuce McAllister, RB, NO I thought very long about this pick, but there were not many interesting options out there. The possibilities were: (1) QB - too many still out there with equal value, I have a favorite but he would have been a reach here (2) RB - McAllister, Fred Taylor, Addai, Chris Brown, others - all have their risks, be it either injury or playing time or both. (3) WR - no one stood out here, WR is a deep position this year so I should get good value in later rounds (4) other positions - TE is covered, the rest would have been too early, I have a favorite for my 1st IDP, but round 4 is way too early the decision was to take Deuce. He has huge upside potential even with Reggie Bush beside him. I compare this situation with Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson of last year. I had the 2 of them and they played both great until Priest went down. I can only hope that Deuce does not go down and that he gets his occasional off-time when Bush is on the field to stay fresh all season. | |||||
| 51 | TB Sherpa ID: 031811922 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 14:38 |
4.06 Tom Brady, QB, NE For a guy who hates the Patriots, I sure do draft Tom Brady a lot. Last year I was the the 2nd-to-last team to grab a starting QB and it was Brady in the 7th round. That worked out pretty good for me. No way does he last past the 4th round this year. I didn't want to miss the run on the top starting QBs. I am projecting it to start with this pick and wouldn't be surprised to see 7 or 8 QB's come off the board before this comes back around to me in the 5th round. The Patriots defense looks average so far in preseason and I am guessing that good teams will score plenty on them. I am hoping that translates to Brady having to pass a lot and producing a repeat performance from last year. There are a lot of different directions I could have taken in this spot, but I didn't see the value at any one position that shouted to be taken. Brady is a solid QB and a safe all-around pick. (I was wrong about the QB run, which is fine because it keeps my streak alive of not knowing when to draft a QB in this format) | |||||
| 53 | Valkyrie ID: 313182621 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:09 |
4.07 Joseph Addai, RB, Ind What can I say- I thought I needed an RB and also consdiered Tom Jones and Brown. In retrospect far to early to risk the season on someone like Addai who could be the best or the worst pick of the year- Based on the subsequent QB run I should have picked a QB here and might have taken Brady if he hadn't just been taken by TB. | |||||
| 54 | for culdeus Leader ID: 191202817 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:10 |
4.08 Javon Walker WR Denver Another big risk. I’m a gambler though and always have been. This guy might not even get the WR1 spot ahead of Rod Smith, but he’s got the most upside of anyone left at that point. There was a big run of WRs in late 3 early 4 that was predictable. Not totally sure that a couple days later I like this pick. It was a really barren spot. No RBs to speak of, the WRs were shaky, and no way I take a QB that early so here I am. | |||||
| 55 | The Beezer Leader ID: 191202817 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 15:12 |
4.09 Frank Gore - RB, SF RBs are starting to get really thin on the ground, which was expected going WR/WR in the 2nd and 3rd round. I was hoping Addai would fall here but Valkyrie snuffed that out with a good pick at 4.07. With WR1/2 set, Gates off the board, and QBs still plentiful enough to wait a bit more, I thought finding a RB2 was the move here as I can see 2-3 more RBs going off the board which would make things difficult. As far as likely starters go that I like, I only saw Gore, pick-a-Denver-RB, and who'll-make-it-back-from-injury-first in Chicago. Of these, Gore is my favorite and seems to have the best match of opportunity and talent. He looked really good when he had chances last season and looked good against CHI in preseason game 1 (worth zilch but I'm looking for positives here). Barlow's squandered his chances so I don't see Norv giving him much of a chance other than as a change of pace. With Rudi firmly entrenched, I'm OK with taking some risk on here. My RB pick here last year was a complete bust and I still made it to the big league, so if I whiff it's not the end of the world. | |||||
| 57 | Athletics Guy ID: 167191017 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 16:21 |
4.10 Fred Taylor, RB, JAX I guess I could do a lot worse than having Fred Taylor as one of my starting RBs. Either way, I'm not too crazy about this pick, but it was one I felt I had to make. If I didn't take him here, I'd probably have to use a bunch of future picks on RB-by-committee players and hope that I get lucky with one. As long as he can stay healthy (yeah right...), he should be productive enough to help carry my team into the postseason. | |||||
| 58 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 3579513 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 16:42 |
4.11 Tony Gonzalez - TE, KAN Gonzalez' production had a huge drop last year (7th TE) while he was helping out on the blocking more than in previous years. Here's hoping that although it appears that Roaf won't be coming back, that the Chiefs find a way of getting the ball to their best receiver. (Especially into the Endzone) | |||||
| 59 | leggestand ID: 426542419 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 18:37 |
4.12 Joe Horn, WR, NO I wanted Tony G. here, but IAC took him right in front of me. Only one guy stood out from my cheat sheets for me to take once Gonzo was gone, and it was Joe Horn. I tried and tried to find a reason not to pick him, but I couldn't find anything too big. Last season was miserable (650 yards and 1 TD in 13 games), but how much of this can be attributed to (1) Katrina, (2) crappy QB, and (3) injury (hammy in week 3)? I am hoping that these were the significant issues that caused the dropoff and not that he is too old (34) to be the top 15 WR that he had been. Omitting 2005's stats, Horn averaged over 1200 yards and 9 TD's per season from 2000-2004. I am hoping for more along the lines of 1050 yards and 7 TD's. With a new QB at the helm, Sean Payton in the headset, and a new WR's coach from the U, I think Horn makes for a solid #2 WR. Round 4 thoughts: Best Value: 2 WR's: Javon Walker and D-Jax. These two guys could very easily end up as top 10 WR's by the end of 2006, and they were picked as the 18th and 19th WR's off the board, respectively. Biggest Surprise: Probably whenever an IDP was first picked, it was going to make my biggest surprise for that round. Vilma is a stud and the #1 LB, but 4th round seemed early to me as no one else chose an IDP for 22 picks. | |||||
| 61 | GoatLocker Sustainer ID: 060151121 Fri, Aug 18, 2006, 22:19 |
4.13 TJ Houshmanzadeh, WR, Cin Highest WR left on my board and was time to go that direction. Actually worked out pretty good and am happy to have him. A lot of his season will be driven by what happens with Palmer. Another case of wait and see. Will be interesting to see which pair of WRs have the best year. | |||||
| 62 | Hubble ID: 59652217 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30 |
4.14 & 5.01 Thomas Jones & Cedric Benson, RB, CHI Well, after a RB-WR-WR... i needed to get another starting RB. I couldnt decide between Benson and Jones, the RB situation in CHI being obscure at best, and didn't want to end up with the wrong guy, then i thought, what if i take both? 5th round might be a little early for a handcuff, but i had to wait 26 picks before i selected again and for sure they would have been gone. Some say Jones will be traded to let Benson be the only RB in CHI. I'd be happy with that, what ever the case, i know that commitee are a nightmare fantasy-wise, but i think this is the least of the worst option remaining at RB. As long as i start the starting RB, i always have a remote chance of getting good points. | |||||
| 64 | Goatlocker ID: 59652217 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30 |
5.02 Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Sea Was kind of torn with this pick, but as I tried to look at value and where we were at in the draft, the only name that really stood out was Hasselbeck. There were a few other QBs that I thought about, but my gut instinct became one of take the least risky pick and there is little doubt in my mind that Hasselbeck filled that role. Expect him to have another very solid year and perform to the same level he did last year. | |||||
| 65 | Guru ID: 59652217 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:30 |
5.03 Eli Manning, QB, NYG
OK, I’ll admit this was partly a trade of convenience. It was late Thursday, and I had an 11 hour drive ahead of me the following day. I was trying to put together a coherent queue – which is so very tedious when using a dialup to do all of the processing, research, etc. So when leggestand offered the chance to swap 5th and 6th round picks, allowing me to pick Thursday night and avoid the queue, it had a LOT of appeal. Strategically, I had been targeting a QB in the next pick, and I thought we might start to see a run. My short list was Hasselback and Manning, and when Hasselback went immediately before this, I figured it was appropriate to jump. Manning may not be the #4 QB overall, but the other guys in the mix all had “issues” that made them tough to evaluate. With Manning, I’m betting on the pedigree of the family name, assuming that he continues to improve upon his performance last year, and there’s also some good karma from last year’s RIFC team. | |||||
| 66 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 59652217 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 09:32 |
5.04 Deion Branch - WR, NE Broke down and took my first WR. In a perfect world… this should be my 3rd WR. Contract disputes can sometimes be messy. The noise of potentially holding out into the season certainly has brough his value down some. The Patriots currently have ***Undrafted Player*** as their starting WR, so I'm guessing that they'll cave in shortly on this one. If not, maybe he may be moved to a team in need of WRs? Philly? Pretty Please? There were quite a few holdouts last year as I recall too, and only Gates really caused a lost regular season game. | |||||
| 67 | Athletics Guy ID: 167191017 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 11:40 |
5.05 Todd Heap, TE, BAL In most of my fantasy football drafts, I usually put off taking a TE until I've filled every other starting position. The reason is I don't like to overpay for the lowest scoring position on my team. I wanted to try something different here (since none of the QBs or WRs really stood out to me) and take Todd Heap, who I consider to be a top 5 TE. He's been pretty consistent in his career, averaging around 45 yards per game. I also considered taking Terrence McGee here, but I thought he would still be there for my 6th pick (Wrong!). And seeing as how Alge Crumpler slipped to the 7th round, I'm really starting to regret making this pick. Ugh! | |||||
| 68 | The Beezer Leader ID: 191202817 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 13:17 |
5.06 Tatum Bell - RB, DEN This pick wasn't so much about liking Bell as it was feeling I could wait on other positions, but not on RBs. The Chicago RBs, Hasselbeck, and Heap had all come straight off the top of my pick list before this selection, and I suspected that the next player or near equivalent on my lists at QB, WR, TE, and LB would still be there on the way back. This did not appear to be the case at RB, so I took the top guy left on my board. Even when not the full time starter last year, Tatum Bell still managed 1000 combined yards and 8 TDs. He should prove to be an effective bye week filler as a result even if he's not the starter, since Shanny seems committed to 10-15 touches per game no matter who starts and Tatum is the very definition of a home run back. I don't see either of the other two Denver RBs holding onto the starting job all year, and they seem more likely to be riding the pine if they aren't starting. I looked at an RB from TEN, GB, and NYJ since none of them have left the board, but all I see is a mess at those spots. Now I can go to sleep on RB for a few rounds and fill some other needs. | |||||
| 70 | culdeus ID: 313182621 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 14:13 |
5.07 Dominic Rhodes, RB, IND
I really like getting Rhodes here. He's got some potential to do very well if Adaii doesn't come along quickly. I don't see Edge type numbers here, but Indy's goalline offense has been pretty RB friendly. Hopefully he's a good bye week fill in and an occasional start over Foster. He'll probably be a week 1 back for sure for me. Round 5 Comments: Thought McNabb was a wasted pick. No WRs to throw to and as TO correctly stated he's not mobile anymore. Galloway was another questionable reach at that point. I just don't see him doing last year once again with the QB situation there. I think eventually McGee is just going to be a first rounder. People dive all over themselves to get him. The guy is worth 2PPG over a top ten DB. Not totally sure if he warrants that high a pick. But Buffalo is gonna get kicked off to alot this year. | |||||
| 71 | Valkyrie ID: 313182621 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 14:22 |
5.08 Donovan McNabb, QB, Phila With the big run on QB's I was afraid I'd drop to fourth tier. I won with Peyton last year so I place a lot of importance on the QB. I thought Guru made the trade of the draft moving up to take Eli (at very little cost). Feeling I had to take a QB I chose McNabb despite his injury risks over Bulger or the even greater injury risk/rerward with Palmer. Actually I was grateful to have a choice. I don't particularly like McNabb but the Eagles are a solid playoff team and Andy Reid is a good and pass happy coach. | |||||
| 72 | TB ID: 43441182 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:31 |
5.09 Terrence McGee, DB, BUF
I think I do more of a draft diary than a draft rationale. I have watched 5 picks go blazing off the board since I picked 5 hours ago and not a one is a QB. Maybe several teams will grab one on the way back down. I looked at a lot of WR in this spot. Several of the "top" guys out there have age concerns and I have to wonder if they can improve or even maintain from last season. I finally looked at every position to see where my biggest drop off was from my available top rated players and realized McGee was the pick. He scored 164 points in 15 games last year. 20+ points more than the 2nd rated DB. There isn't a receiver left out there projected to score as much. I am sure there is one who will, but my magic 8-ball is fuzzy (stole that line from an old MC rationale). Only one other IDP scored more points than McGee last season and that was Vilma. | |||||
| 73 | youngroman ID: 43441182 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:33 |
5.10 Joey Galloway, WR, TB I wanted McNabb with this pick, but he was taken 2 picks ahead. So I was thinking about a WR here: Rod Smith, Joey Galloway, Laveranues Coles. I also had Chris Brown, the only healthy starting RB left, in mind, but couldn't take him because (1) he would have been the 1st backup for me, for the 5th this is too early and (2) he has the same bye as Deuce. that leaves me with the WR discussion. I see them all at nearly the same value. they could be great or only average. I played it safe and went with the veteran. Galloway is still the #1 in Tampa, with no close 2nd. thats the difference to Rod Smith. I see Galloway reaching the 1000yds again and hope for 8-10 TDs. the only concern is, to stay fresh for the whole season, because he wasn't that great at the end of last season. but before I think about the end of the season (=playoffs), I need a competitive team for the regular season and Galloway should be a major factor. | |||||
| 74 | leggestand ID: 426542419 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 15:45 |
I traded down in the 5th round to move up in the 6th round. My rationale behind the trade - I saw three things possibly happening in the 5th and 6th rounds: (1) a QB run, (2) a 3rd RB run, and (3) an IDP run. I figured two of these three options would happen, and since I only had one of the next 26 picks (after my 4th round selection), which was towards the front end of the 26 picks, I could easily pick the wrong option of the 3 and end up messing myself up in a very important part of the draft. So, I offered up a straight 5th and 6th round swap. If I couldn't make a swap, I would of taken at 5.03 one of these players: Bulger, T. Bell, or Bulluck, and try to guess one of the right runs. Bulger become the front runner until Guru made the final proposal to swap, so, I figured I would get someone like an Eli Manning at 5.11, and then decide if I wanted to go 3rd RB or 1st IDP in 6.04. As it happens, Guru wanted Eli Manning, and Bulger fell to me at 5.11, who I would of taken at 5.03 anyhow. The 3rd RB run was starting, and their was one option out there that I thought of (C. Brown), but I hoped he would make the turn back to me at 6.04 (he didn't). 5.11 Marc Bulger, QB, STL I like Bulger. He has never played a full season in his career, but I am hoping that this is more of a product of Mike Martz not really caring how much a QB should be protected. According to most things I have read, Bulger should be a top 5 QB this year, although I actually have him ranked as #6. The only thing I can say is hopefully he can stay healthy. 5th round thoughts: Best Value - If Carson Palmer can get healthy, it's him hands down. I was wondering who would take him. Biggest Surprise - After seeing only 2 QB's go during the 1st 4 rounds, 5 went in Round 5 alone. The QB run finally arrived, and I was surprised it started so late. | |||||
| 75 | For Doug Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:13 |
5.12 Keith Bulluck, LB, TEN Well, I'm sure I'm raising a few eyebrows at this point. But with the 3 added IDPs, the stud LBs present a greater value to me than other positions do right now, and I'd rather take what I consider a "sure thing" LB than a "maybe" at some other position. By taking my IDP studs now, I can take a few flyers to try and fill in offensive holes later. I find LB scoring to be more consistent than other positions, probably in part because they are less dependent on things like TDs and sacks for fantasy scoring. I'd rather average 115 points per week with low variance than 120 points per week with high variance. I tried to take up Leggestand on his offer to swap picks in rounds 5 and 6, but he preferred Guru's position to mine. Drat! I would have taken Heap at 5.03 instead... liked his value there. Was actually considering him back at 4.03, but neither Gonzo nor Shockey had been drafted yet so I was kinda hoping one of the 3 might last to me in round 5. | |||||
| 76 | For Motley Crue Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:14 |
5.13 Mike Bell, RB, DEN After 4 rounds I have only 1 RB, and he’s not a superstud. I need another one. I think Mike Bell has the biggest upside of all of the available RB’s. He’s an undrafted rookie and could easily disappear from the depth chart and even the NFL, but the fact that he was promoted early to the top of the RB pile is significant. Denver RB’s almost always do well, when given a chance, so I think it’s a safe bet that one of the Bells will be a very valuable fantasy back this season. I hope I got the right one. | |||||
| 77 | For S_R Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:14 |
5.14 Carson Palmer IMO the second-best QB option in drafts. I hope he'll be back to 100% for the fantasy playoff! 6.01 Laveranues Coles Unsettled QB situation in NY makes him risky pick, but durable wideout with excellent speed. | |||||
| 79 | For Motley Crue Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:36 |
6.02 Chris Brown, RB, TEN My RB depth is still very shallow, and I like Chris Brown’s chances of being the starter for 16 games. I am not expecting a great season from him, but if he can get to 1000 yards, I think we can call that a success. There are rivals in camp, but I feel that Brown is the best of the bunch, and therefore most likely to win the bulk of the carries. I think I basically got the last 2 real good prospects available at the RB position with Mike Bell and Chris Brown. They may not both start all year long, but as long as I can plug either of them in on a given week to fill out my starting lineup, I feel I’ll be competitive. | |||||
| 80 | For Doug Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:36 |
6.03 Carolina Panthers, DEF, CAR I basically knew that between this pick and my next two, I wanted a D, a 3rd LB, and a WR. I heavily considered Mike Peterson, and probably would have taken him if anyone else had taken a LB besides me. I had 3 top Team D and I wanted one of them, didn't care which... I figured that there was the greatest chance of those coming off the board before it got back to me. In retrospect, looks like I could have waited on Team D and taken Peterson here instead. Phbbt. | |||||
| 81 | Leggestand Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:37 |
6.04 Mike Peterson, JAX, LB As I said earlier, the rationale for trading 5th and 6th round picks were to ensure I got a top QB, a 3rd RB, or top IDP. To put it plainly, I have never waited this long to get a 3rd RB in my fantasy football life. I don't really want to delve into why I stayed away from a RB in the 6th round at this time, but if MC had let Chris Brown slide, he was the only RB I would of taken. As he didn't, I changed directions. We now start 6 IDP's. Last year, when we had 4, I felt it was pretty easy to get by without getting a stud IDP. This year is different. Considering at least 84 IDP's need to come of the board, the more you can get in the top 10, the better off you are. My top 3 LB's: (1) Vilma, (2) Bulluck, and (3) Peterson. There is a decent sized dropoff between these guys and the next 20 LB's. As Peterson was the only one left out of these 3, it was an easy choice for me. I never would of taken him if we still only started 4 IDP's, but seeing how even with Peterson, I need 5 more, I need to have at least a couple sure fire LB's on my squad. With Peterson, I have a guy who should easily reach at least 100 tackles, multiple sacks, and multiple INT's. 6th round thoughts: Best Value: Chris Brown at 6.02. He always gets dinged up, but everyone has to admit that he is solid. He has some good runners behind him, but he should be the obvious Titan starter right now. Eddie Kennison is also always undervalued and drafted at a value position. Biggest Surprise: None really, except maybe Vick. I just think there were some better consistant QB's out there. If Vick finally puts all his tools together, good pick! | |||||
| 82 | For youngroman Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:38 |
6.05 Zach Thomas, LB, MIA He is simply the best linebacker in our scoring format. Without the injury concerns he would have been gone a round ago. He is a threat week by week for my team and the 2nd player that a signed again this year (Galloway being the 1st). there were thoughts about QB and RB here, but Brown was gone and I still see too many equal options at QB available. | |||||
| 83 | TB Sherpa ID: 031811922 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 17:39 |
6.06 Dante' Hall, WR, KAN 6th round and I have one starting WR in a league that starts three. I knew I was drafting a WR in this spot as soon as I made my last pick. I am already behind the power curve. I don't have a top 10 guy and I just read that Ward has hammy issues. I am certainly surprised to get last years 13th ranked "WR" in the 6th round. 24 other receivers have been drafted. Return yards are key to his point production so I am hoping he stays healthy and gets lot of returns this season. | |||||
| 84 | Valkyrie ID: 25110210 Sat, Aug 19, 2006, 21:18 |
6.07 Jake Delhomme QB- carolina The first team to pick a back up QB. Strictly a value pick. With an injury prone Mcnabb I was pleased to see Delhomme still available in fact I was prepared to take him round 5 if I had to. In my opinion there is a big drop off after Delhomme so I anticipate him having substantial trade value as QB's continue to get squeezed should I decide to go that route.
for culdeus
Someone has to catch balls in KC and it might as well be Eddie. The offense will be centered around LJ so much this year that hopefully he gets some balls when people stack 8 in the box. I was really pleased to get him at here. I really considered Matt Jones here and again as it turned out he was there for my next pick. Round 6 comments: Again someone reaches for a D/ST. I'm just not convinced in this format a D/ST can get the kind of separation a quality IDP can provide you. I've always felt that the lack of severe penalty for poor performing D/ST limits their overall value. For this reason frequently a waiver wire D/ST can perform equally to D/ST1 on a week to week basis. So why burn a 6th rounder? I thought other than that people behaved fairly rationally in this round. | |||||
| 85 | The Beezer ID: 265172712 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 08:56 |
6.09 Michael Vick - QB, ATL Time to fill a starter position - I see plenty of like depth at all the positions other than TE and QB, where I have one guy at each position far ahead of his peers on my chart - Michael Vick and Chris Cooley. The question is, who's more likely to make it back to 7.06? After thinking about it really hard, I figure that there are more TEs to go off the board before I pick than QBs, for a lot of reasons that I won't go into right now. Therefore, for the second year in a row, I'm going into battle with Vick at QB. Mike Vick has the perception of being extremely inconsistent from week to week, making him a roller coaster ride. What I found last year taking him in the fifth round did not match up with this, at least until the end of the season. Vick would consistently provide 10-15 points per week, and had the potential to deliver 20+ points on any given Sunday. That on top of a solid foundation was a formula for success last season. With another year under the belts of the ATL WRs, the further help of his TE, and another year for MV in the WCO, I figure he should at least match last year's production of 15 FP/game, if not improve upon it. This level of production would more than justify a sixth round pick, and if it resparks a QB run so I can grab some other guys I want, all the better. | |||||
| 86 | Athletics Guy ID: 167191017 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 09:57 |
6.10 Ahman Green, RB, GB By drafting Fragile Fred, adding depth at RB was very important to me. Ahman Green's stock is at an all-time low, so I was pleased to get a starter this late in the draft. This is definitely a high risk/reward pick. Green was a very productive player prior to his disasterous 2005 season. I'm hoping he's still got something left in the tank. He gets to face some pretty weak defenses (NO, DET, and StL) within the first 5 weeks, so he might get off to a good start. | |||||
| 87 | I_AM_CANADIAN ID: 59652217 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 10:44 |
6.11 Brian Urlacher - LB, CHI Last year I drafted my first IDP in round 13. I still feel that I was able to have a really competitive team. This year, I figured the lack of depth that'll be available on waivers would cause the "need" to start focusing on IDP no later than by round 7. I think LBs will prove to be ALMOST as important to the draft as RBs. That said however, I didn't feel like grabing one before the 6th round was wise, as I felt most other managers would be ignoring IDP early (due to previous years "habits"). Urlacher is a beast of a LB, and I rank him TOP5 among LBs. | |||||
| 88 | Guru Sustainer ID: 060151121 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 12:52 |
6.12 Rod Smith, WR, Den
I had thought about taking a LB with this pick, but those who I was most interested were taken. I’ve only got one WR so far, and it can’t hurt to get another one. Rod Smith shows up at the top of the list now, and although he’s age 36, should still put up consistent numbers. I’m not worried about him playing second fiddle to Javon Walker. So far, I have a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, and a TE. An uncharacteristically traditional draft for me. | |||||
| 89 | GoatLocker Sustainer ID: 060151121 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 12:57 |
6.13 Donnie Edwards, LB, SD Kind of mimicks what IAC just had to say about his 6.11 pick. With 6 slots for IDP, I was pretty sure that the first choice needed to be in round 6 or 7. Since I am on the end, my choices are being made in pairs. The Even numbered pick has been who I think won't be there in 3 picks, or who I really want to ensure I get right now. Even though there is some question about whether Edwards will spend the entire year with SD or not, I still feel he is one of the Top 5 LBs and knew I wanted at least one from that group. | |||||
| 90 | Valkyrie ID: 25110210 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 14:00 |
for Hubble 6.14 London Fletcher, LB, BUF I didn't want to wait any longer to secure a pillar as my first IDP. Top 5 for the last 2 years in tackle, Fletcher averaged 139 tackle since 2000 and plays for one of the best defense in the league. Should give me solid production again this year. | |||||
| 100 | Guru ID: 330592710 Sun, Aug 20, 2006, 15:08 | rationales for rounds 7-12 | |||||
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