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0 Subject: RIFC 2011: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Aug 24, 2011, 16:00

This thread will be for managers in the 2011 RotoGuru Invitational Football Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Please keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

If possible, please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make each pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post in this format:

for Guru
1.06 Michael Vick, QB, Phi

3. Once the draft is over, each manager will also be encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc. A separate thread will be set up for that.

The general format should be:
1.01 Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
Several sentences of rationale.

As part of your first round rationale, please comment on your selection of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
293Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:44
for Fugazi
21.04 Garrett Hartley, K, NO
294Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:44
for The Beezer
21.05 Nate Kaeding, PK, SD
At this point, Iím not too worried about getting particular sleepers, so it was time to start peeking at my kicker list now that they have started to go. Lo and behold, my #1 guy was still on the board. Kaeding is a trusted part of the team and they should give him plenty of opportunities to put points on the board.
295Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:44
21.06 Vince Young, QB, Phi
Disaster protection. If Vick is injured, Bradford will play. If both are injured, then Iíll have one of their backups. I figured Vince Young was the better of those two options Ė although thatís far from clear. If it comes down to that, then my season is probably toast anyway.
296Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:45
for youngroman
21.07 Kevin Walter, WR, HOU
as said in my last rationale, its time picking some scrubs. I don't feel the need for a 3rd QB, a 6th RB or a 3rd TE, but I thought it would be good to add a body at WR that fits my bye-week issues. Kevin Walter has a late bye-week that is only matched once on my team. that makes him a good fit. And not to forget: he can catch some balls too. He has an above average passer at QB, possibly some room because opposing defenders need to stop Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. what can you expect more from a #2 WR on his team and a #5 for me.
297Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:46
for Judy
21.08 David Henery PK PHL
HOORAH. Another Iggle! Was a bit worried that YR knows about my fondness for Iggles. (See the Shady pick.) (I actually prepared a rationale for the second guy in line just in case -- Celek who was taken by IAC as his #3 TE?) YR also grabbed a few others just ahead of me: Posluszny, DíQwell, Heap. Plus we both jumped in early on top IDPís. Iíve played often with YR and he knows my tendencies, so I was PRAYING that he would leave Henery for me. I also knew that if I did not grab him this round, that TD, for sure, would take him in one of his two picks at the turnaround (Right, TD?). The Iggles score a lot but also stall a lot in the red zone or close to it, so a PK generally does well there. I think it is funny that we have a new KO named Henery and a new PK named Henry. Both rookies, both top at their position coming outta college. Weird.
298Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Aug 30, 2011, 22:46
for russelldl
21.09 Alex Green, RB, GB
Green is looking to be the 3rd down back in GB. Which is nice considering they like to throw and Grant/Starks can't catch a cold if you coughed in their mouths. Not a ton of potential but I decided to go for a guy who can be a weekly contributor if necessary as opposed to going for a lottery ticket guy.
299 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:47
for Tree
21.10 Andy Dalton, QB, Cin
Romo's got an early bye, so i wanted to go ahead and draft a backup to cover that. Dalton was the best of the best, and his match up during Romo's bye week is a reasonably decent one.
300Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:48
for Letter_J
21.11 Bernard Pollard, DB, BAL
Pollard's weakness is dropping into pass coverage. In real-life, that's bad...but in fantasy football, it's a good thing. Pollard is a big hitter, and I believe he'll be the starting strong safety for the Ravens. He could very well wind up being waiver-wire fodder.
301Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:49
for IAC
21.12 Brent Celek, TE, PHI
Did I need a 3rd TE? Absolutely not. But, we are talking about a guy that finished 4th in TE scoring just two years ago. Even last year, with Vick now under center, and a whole new offense in place, he still finished Top20 in TE scoring. Itís not like Vick isnít aware how to use the TE to stretch the field. [undrafted] was his #1 weapon for years in Atlanta. Unlike a lot of other high upside TEs, heís been extremely consistent in making 4 straight 16 game seasons. I just couldn't pass up his value here (much to the chagrin of a couple managers hoping to snag him in the closing rounds no doubt).
302Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:49
for Bonka
21.13 Oshiomogho Atogwe, S, WAS
Son of a...had Pollard at the top of my queue, and like always, one of the Canadians scoop him up right before me. Atogwe was next in line so here he is. He's a highly ranked DB, we'll see if that rank holds up throughout the season. If not, whatever, he'll be swapped for flavor of the month DB. You can not draft 2 DBs and still possibly get 2 DB1s on your team for the season. Whatever.
303Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:50
for TD
21.14 Justin Forsett, RB, Sea
I wanted a RB4 to fill in a bye week. Very few left. Forsett averaged over 5 pts/wk in a backup role last season. I expect similar production this season. Also considered Ricky Williams.

22.01 Neil Rackers, K, Hou
I wanted to get a kicker before there was a big run. Rackers is an accurate strong footed kicker who should get plent of oppurtuinities to score with the strong Texans offense.
304Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:51
for Bonka
22.02 Kevin Burnett, LB, MIA
Needed to grab another LB since I only had 2. Problem is, LB is pretty thin for remaining talent/value. I'd probably have been better off not taking anyone and just waiting for a solid waiver pickup, but I'll take one anyways in case they blow up. Burnett has moved to Miami to fill Crowder's slot. He should put up solid numbers at least. Still probably cut bait within 2 or 3 weeks.
305Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:51
for IAC
22.03 Ray Edwards, DE, ATL
Since I flubbed up my last DE (bye week issue) I decided that it necessitated picking up another DE unfortunately. I was really surprised that a high calibre name like Edwards was still available, but it appears that almost nobody is backing up the DE position? That ďmayĒ be a mistake IMHO.
306Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:52
for Letter_J
22.04 Demond "Bob" Sanders, DB, SDG
When healthy, Sanders is a beast. Unfortunately, he can't stay on the field, and that is what led the Colts to release him. The Super-Chargers signed him (albeit for one year), so they must believe that Sanders is healthy, right. I had my eye on someone else, but drafted Sanders instead...argh!
307 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:53
for Tree
22.05 Jerome Harrison, RB, Det
Did i mention depth? ok, i did. Javid Best strikes me as fragile, so Harrison should earn some starts. a RB doing that who is taken this deep in the draft, is value.
308Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:53
for russelldl
22.06 Stewart Bradley LB, ARI
Bradley came over from PHI and should be the starter in Arizona. He's a good tackler and I believe he's that guy who practically got knocked out on his feet a couple of years ago and still went back into the game. That's my kind of guy.
309 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:55
for Judy
22.07 Steve Smith, WR, Phi
This is really a fill in pick as I needed another WR to cover the Week 11 byes of A Brown, A Johnson and E Sanders. Smith began practicing for the Iggles this week and since I wonít need him until later thatís OK. He was a reliable target for Eli posting consistent, steady stats. He has consistently averaged around 11 yards/catch and in 2009 had an incredible 107 receptions. Now THAT is just not gonna happen in Philly. He is listed as the #6 WR, but frankly, thatís a joke. I see him as the #3 behind DJax, Maclin, 3 x (undrafted guys). Heís better than #4 and 5 for sure. We will need to see how he recovers from his injury. Fortunately I have time to see how the Iggles/Vick do or do not use him. He might be the first to go if I need to pick up someone else. Sorry Steve.
310Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:56
for youngroman
22.08 Jerome Simpson, WR, CIN
another potential scrub. All experts believe that Cincy has the worst offense this year and are playing for one single win to avoid a 0-16. I don't think that they will lose that much, but 3-13 doesn't sound good either. playing from behind means that the passing game will get more focus. I have no idea about the skill set of Andy Dalton who looks to be the starter, but he needs to throw the ball for this team to win it. the running game won't be the solution because it will be stopped sooner than later. that leaves them with the passing game. their other receivers are: AJ Green, J Gresham and #undrafted#. I don't see a clear #1, so it could very well be Jerome Simpson, aka. waiver wire fodder.
311Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:56
22.09 Adam Vinatieri, K, Ind
Hadnít really planned on getting a kicker this early, but I suspect my last two picks (23 & 24) will be reserved for situational bench management, so this is effectively the last guy that Iím likely to keep for any extended period. Vinatieri doesnít have a long foot, but it is an accurate one. He has the benefit of kicking indoors the majority of the time, and his week 11 bye gives me maximum flexibility.
312Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:57
for The Beezer
22.10 John Beck, QB, WAS
Heís looked decent in the preseason, so you never know. Almost certainly a drop but stranger things have happened.
313Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:58
for Fugazi
22.11 Brandon Gibson, WR, Stl
314Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:58
for ywk
22.12 Fred Davis, TE, Was
Drafted him as my TE2 when Davis could be the starting TE for Skins if the incumbent starter Cooley is not ready for week 1. I thought about taking Brent Celek.
315Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 09:59
for Swinganamiss
22.13 Ricky Williams, RB BAL
Kind of surprised Williams is still available. He seems draftable. He should still have something left in the tank. Rice could certainly lead the league in yardage and leave Ricky w/ nothing. I will monitor this situation and think about how patient I can be hanging onto him if he doesn't get much opportunity early on during the season.
316Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:00
for Electroman
22.14 Sebastian Janikowski, PK, Oak
Is there anyone in the league with a stronger leg? Watching a game the other night, he hits a 57 yrd FG like it was a PAT. He doesn't get a lot of recognition because he plays in Oakland, and there are a lot of kickers that play for better teams. But this guys had some good weeks last year. Here's to hoping that he keeps it up.

23.01 Mike Williams, WR, Sea
This again is a list pick. I was hoping to get Steve Smith of Philly, but homer lady picked before me and snatched him up;) Williams has ressurected his career in Seattle, we all know the story. The problem is the QB that will be throwing to him, will he be able to make an impact this year like he did in a few games last year? Time will tell.
317Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:00
for Swinganamiss
23.02 Matt Bryant, K ATL
Do not look at this guy's profile! He is looking OLD. I am sure there are older kickers starting however. Bryant has a strong leg, accuracy, a potentially high-scoring team, and kicks in a dome. All good reasons to add him to my team. That's way too much analysis for a K.
318Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:01
for ywk
23.03 Tramon Williams, DB, GB
I told myself not to take players GB anymore but could not resist the urge of grabbing him as another DB option. He should be one reliable source of defense points on my roster.
319Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:02
for Fugazi
23.04 Gerald McCoy, DL, TB
320Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:03
for The Beezer
23.05 Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ
I really like this kid and I really donít like Greene at all. Last year taking LDT in round 10 was a key part of my title run in AAA, so betting on Shonn failing again will hopefully pay off.
321Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:03
23.06 AJ Feeley, QB, StL
Ostensibly handcuffing my backup QB Bradford. But Iím really just filling up a bench slot that will probably get vacated for a F/A waiver pickup after week #1 Ė unless one of my QBs get hurt in the opening game.
322Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:03
for youngroman
23.07 Andre Carter, DL, NE
Andre Carter was signed by NE a few weeks ago. he wasn't that good last year, but was great in 2009. In the hope that he reaches more the potential he showed in 2009 than how he was used last year. New England always finds ways to utilize their players as good as possible in the NFL. If they can do this to Andre Carter too it would really make me happy. I can only dream about the 19.5 tackles for loss he got in 2009.
323Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:05
for Judy
23.08 Harry Douglas WR ATL
Not too sure why this guy is still available, based upon recent reports. I needed more insurance for my bye 11 week in case the other sub WR do not pan out. When I did the research it noted that he was going to be a regular in the 3 wide formation and could get some looks if #1/2 are covered. He is fast and quick (Those are NOT the same skill sets.) and seems to be headed toward the slot. He needs to get those stick Ďem gloves though. He had a crappy 2010, but his 2011 preseason has gone well. Who knows what will happen? I sure donít but he is insurance.
324Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:05
for russelldl
23.09 Nick Fairley, DT, DET
Nick Fairley obviously has the upside to be a double digit sack guy. He's hurt right now and who knows what he'll do. But in the 23rd round, I'm taking a guy I want to watch play.
325 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:06
for Tree
23.10 Josh Brown, PK, StL
kicker. dome. high-scoring offense. Kurt Warner as QB. ok, well, not that last part. and the part before that remains to be seen. but hey, he's a kicker. in a dome. right, they still play in a dome?
326Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:06
for Letter_J
23.11 Josh Wilson, DB, WSH
If [undrafted WR] gets cut in camp, Wilson could absolutely blow up the way he did (what was it, two years ago now?), being both the kick/punt returner and starting CB. Regardless, he starts opposite a former pro-bowler and should see lots of passes coming his way.
327Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:07
for IAC
23.12 Mason Crosby, K, GB
He plays for a high scoring offense. No other reason than that. I actually did take the time to bother and check if Bonka needed a kicker or not. I figured Iíd try to one up him ONE LAST TIME! ;)
328Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:07
for Bonka
23.13 Billy Cundiff, K, BAL
I was probably going to take Crosby here, but SURPRISE, IAC takes him as I'm deciding. So I went with Cundiff. Probably should have just not drafted a kicker.
329Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:08
for TD
23.14 Lamarr Houston, DE, Oak
Houston had a good rookie season with 5 sacks. His numbers should to improve in his 2nd season.

24.01 Michael Huff, DB, Oak

Huff was one of the top players on 2005 Texas national championship team and was selected 7th overall by the Raiders in the 2006 draft. He finally had a breakout season last year and was rewarded with a big new contract. Hopefully the Raiders did not make a mistake and he continues to perform at a high level this season.
330Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:08
for Bonka
24.02 Patrick Peterson, CB, ARI
I could have taken anyone I wanted with this pick but didn't care that much about the remaining RB/WR/LBs so just decided to go with Peterson. Rookie CBs usually get thrown at a lot and Peterson is a huge talent. He won't be doing returns as far as I know, but he could still be solid on just his defensive play alone. Basically a decent upside pick that will quickly go the way of being cut early unless he flashes something.
331Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:09
for IAC
24.03 Josh Cribbs, WR/KR/PR/WildCatQB/Double Reverse Specialist/Special Teams Gunner, CLE

Why not?! He scored 12PPG two years ago in our format, and by all indications, heís been having a good preseason. Heís even saying he doesnít care where the ball falls on kickoffs, heíll be returning the out of the endzone at any depth.
332Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:09
for Letter_J
24.04 Dan Carpenter, PK, MIA
Meh! We have to start a kicker...so, I draft a guy with a big leg on a team with a coach that is not adverse to taking the points. IIRC, it seemed like Carpenter put up solid numbers weekly last year for EE.
333 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:10
for Tree
24.05 Joe Haden, DB, Cle
i needed anther DB. Joe Haden is a DB. Odd to say a DB is a sleeper, but i think Haden is. All 6 of his interceptions came in the last 11 games of the season. he's got great speed, and a knack for the ball and ball carrier. honestly, i really like this pick.
334Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:11
for russeldl
24.06 David Buehler, K, DAL
Two things I like about Buehler. One, he's an NFL kicker and we're required to have an NFL kicker on our roster. I don't care which one it is. Second, it gives me the opportunity to say "Buehler...Buehler" in the Ben Stein monotone which will annoy the crap out of my fiance. I consider that a win.
335Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:11
for Judy
24.07 Jabaal Sheard DL CLE
Having to start two DL really made me pick up a third DL here. Unfortunately, my first two share the same bye week, a mistake I madeÖ just was not paying attention. Will need to find another one to fill in for week 7, but there are usually several around although 5 is the first bye week so everyoneís extras will not have been dumped yet. Oh well. That said Jabaal Sheard has good potential as I again go with youth, with him expecting to start at DE right away. Another rookie!!! He was the Big East Def Player of the Year, but the Big East is a crappy conference so who knows what that really means. He is termed a ďrelentless and explosiveĒ pass rusher with 20 career sacks at Pitt, nine his senior year. That works for me. Cleveland will be spending a lot of time on D so he should certainly get his chances. We shall see. If nothing else, he is a bye week fill in.
336Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:12
for youngroman
24.08 Rob Bironas, PK, TEN
I think this is the first time in years that I actually draft a kicker. Don't ask me why. Bironas is accurate and one of the better kickers. he has a strong leg and converts lon FG with great percentages, even when they are made from 50+. The Titans offense may be better too this year. I don't know if this is good (more PATs) or bad (less FGs).
337Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:12
24.09 Chester Taylor, RB, Chi
I guess heís still on the Bears, although apparently the front office wants to release him while the coaching staff wants to retain him. If he stays, heís a potential backup to Forte. If he is released, heís a potential backup for some other team. Either way, he probably wonít stay on my roster for long.
338Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:13
for The Beezer
24.10 Melvin Bullitt, DB, IND
Truth be told, I just mainly liked the name. Melvin! Apparently, heís not too shabby either, so heíll do.
339Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:13
for Fugazi
24.11 Robert Quinn, DL, StL
340Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:14
for ywk
24.12 James Hall, DL, StL
Despite being my last pick in this draft, Hall may have the chance to start on my team immediately (another evidence showing my weakness of picking the defense?). Though coming off the best season of his career, Hall is believed to still have some gas left in his tank.
341Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:14
for Swinganamiss
24.13 Jason Avant, WR PHI
I'm an Eagles fan. One of many in here it seems! I would like to think Jackson and Maclin can stay healthy this season, however there's a reasonable chance that one goes out for a part of the season. Maclin may not be ready to produce at his normal levels early in the season. In any case, Avant could have some value for me, if I even hang onto him.
342Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Wed, Aug 31, 2011, 10:15
for Electroman
24.14 Dawan Landry, DB, Jax
Last guy taken in the draft. As a stated earlier, it would be wise for me to take another DB because of the Wilson injury. I am happy to take Landry. He racks up tackles. He was a pretty solid contributer last year. Another thing I just noticed is that both of my other DB's have the same bye week. So we will see about that.
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