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Subject: RIFC 2013: Rationale collection thread
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Aug 25, 2013, 17:42
As briefly discussed in the "getting started" thread, I'm going to try a slightly different approach in assembling the draft rationales.
You have a choice. You may either post your rationale in the comment area next to the associated pick on the MFL draft page,
- or -
you may post each rationale in this thread.
Regardless, each rationale is due no later than two rounds in arrears. I understand that, especially when queues are used, staying within two rounds will be difficult. However, please try to stay relatively current.
I will set up a master thread for all Rationales that will be organized in the proper draft sequence. I haven't yet figured out the most efficient way to do it, but I'll do it in some fashion that allows for periodic updates during the draft.
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Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.] |
| 139 | s R
ID: 3274072
Sat, Aug 31, 2013, 23:48
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16.09 Cliff Avril, DL, Sea
Avril joined Seattle, where he'll immediately slot into the IDP-friendly "Leo" pass-rushing role for the Seahawks. The fit is a good one for Avril, who can utilize his speed.
17.06 Nick Roach, LB, Oak
Now with the Raiders, Roach instantly becomes the most talented linebacker on the team. He has the toughness, the range, and plays an ideal position for strong IDP numbers.
18.09 Knile Davis, RB, Kan
Backup to Jamaal Charles...
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| 141 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sat, Aug 31, 2013, 23:52
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18.07 Brandon Mebane DL SEA
As I looked over the DL choices, I decided to wait because after Watt, taken in round 3.02 the points fall off very quickly and basically you are left to the whims of any given game. For this reason, I looked to find tackle machines at LB and DB, in many cases instead of an offensive player. So my first DL is the 22nd DL off the board.
Mebane plays in a defense that will put pressure on the QB. The DB will cover the receivers and so the DL have this great chance to sack the QB. As a DT he can stuff the run as well.
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| 142 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 03:54
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18.05 Isaac Redman, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I have no idea why he was still out there. did not recognize this earlier. a starting RB available in round 18? WTF? ok, he may only start 3 or 4 games and in these starts he won't get a full workload, so he is basically a 1a and later in the season a 2a behind an unproven starter who is coming back from injury. he may have value all year or he may get dropped as soon as Dwyer shows that he is more effective this season. I better hope that Redman stays the starter and Bell takes longer than expected to recover.
note: Dwyer was surprisingly released a few hours after I picked Redman, so this pick looks even better when it comes to 1a vs. 1b, but it may also mean that Bell may be back earlier.
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| 143 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 10:08
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19.10 Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts
I haven't planned on picking a 2nd TE in this draft but Fleener was too much value to pass at this point. I still need some WR depth (some of my sleepers are still available) or IDP starters (also enough comparable ones available), but a starting tight end for a pass heavy offense could be gold, even if he is only the 2nd TE in all those 2 tight end sets the Colts are expected to run. he may have value every week and if all goes well I only have to play him in week 11.
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| 144 | Bonka
Sustainer
ID: 019742310
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 11:23
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19.11 Roman Harper, S, NOS
Getting Harper as my first DB and 23rd DB off the board is great. He's been and should continue to be a fantasy stud.
20.04 Shonn Greene, RB, TEN
Green is a solid reserve behind Chris Johnson. The Titans line should be pretty good this year and you never know, Greene could do what LenDale White did a few years ago with Johnson.
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| 145 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:11
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11.03 Charles Johnson, DE, CAR
Since we've tweaked the scoring taking into account QB hits and Tackle for Loss, these type of DEs have skyrocketed in value. Now that I've shored up my two pass-rush DEs, I can now focus on the rest of my IDPs. Also considered Le’Veon Bell or Michael Floyd… but considering how many IDPs we start every week, I wasn't ready to target depth just yet.
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| 146 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:12
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12.12 Eric Berry, S, KC
Couple years ago, I drafted Berry around this level, and then he went down with season ending injury. I’m hoping he’s back at his ELITE thumper ways, and rank top 5 DB by the end of the year.
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| 147 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:13
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13.03 Sidney Rice, WR, SEA
I was happy of the value of this player (His ADP had him going about 3 rounds earlier), however, I’m breaking away from my draft plan significantly at this point. I was really hoping to be targeting LBs, but they keep flying off the board at a ridiculous rate (we can only start 3 of the people!). Luckily every year seems like there are plenty of start-able LBs available on the wire… I just might not end up with a true LB1.
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| 148 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:14
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14.12 Fred Jackson, RB, BUF
Handcuff Pick. I’m not normally fond of them, but if Spiller were to go down, we know that Fred can step in and do an “adequate” backup job. At this point in the draft, it’s an easy pick to make, I’ll sleep well knowing my #1 pick is solidified… no regrets.
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| 149 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:15
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15.03 Fred Davis, TE, WAS
He’s being talked up as a legitimate option/weapon in Washington, and considering out he came out of nowhere a few years back to steal the job from Cooley, I think his 1 year “prove it” contract, should be enough motivation, in a offence that currently has underwhelming options in the receiving core; IF he can stay healthy of course! There are still 9 rounds remaining correct? Plenty of time for those LBs that I keep passing on!
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| 150 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:16
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16.12 Mychal Kendricks, LB, PHI
Finally! Got a LB, and one that from my research, I like his potential. From what I’ve read, he’s the ILB to have (not UNDRAFTED) in Philly’s new 3-4 DEF. I don’t remember him making much of a name for himself in his rookie season, but things seem to point to him being more comfortable in the new scheme. Sounds like good value.
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| 151 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:16
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17.03 Stephen Tulloch, LB, DET
The ex-Titan put up a MONSTER season a few years back, and as I was watching the Patriots game this preseason, I was hearing his name all over the field, especially nailing RBs in the backfield. Here’s hoping he trending back up.
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| 152 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:17
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18.12 Jake Locker, QB, TEN
This is the first of three “cell phone” picks. I was out of town for the day, so I cross-referenced the ADP w/ Team needs and came up with these picks. I relied on “gut” if I was OK players selected. Hopefully Locker wont be needed for much else than to cover a bye… or maybe a week 16 game?
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| 153 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:18
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19.03 Kam Chancellor, DB, SEA
That Seahawks secondary is quite the unit, and this guy always seems to be all over the place. Last two season he’s had 70+ tackles, looking forward to another Top 10 DB season.
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| 154 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:18
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20.12 Desmond Bishop, LB, MIN
I’ll blame this a little on the cell phone… I didn't realize he was still in competition for the WLB of the Vikings. Apparently, however, he’s fared extremely well in preseason so far… here’s hoping he grabs a hold of that job for week 1. If so, there'll be no worries, If he doesn't he could end up as Waiver Wire fodder.
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| 155 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:19
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21.03 Daryl Smith, LB, BAL
Back at a computer again, I immediately needed to go and get a backup plan in case Bishop doesn’t land the starting gig in Minnesota. Smith steps into Ray-Ray’s old spot in the lineup. Apparently, Smith has looked great in preseason so far… this is another case of an LB with recent injury worries, so let’s hope he stays healthy as well.
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| 156 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 12:23
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18.03 Broyles, Ryan DET WR
I have WR byes on Week 7, 10, 11, and 12. Broles has a bye on week 5 so if anyone is injured and unable to play in weeks 7, 10, 11, or 12, then he'll be able to fill in. If not then he can be cut for someone who will help my team.
19.12 Bowers, Da'Quan TBB DE
Everyone knows the most important position is the 2nd DL. /sarcasm>
If he provides 7 points a week, this is a steal. If he provides under 4, then he's a bust. If he's in the middle he might remain on my team through his bye week.
20.03 Suggs, Terrell BAL LB
I need a backup LB, especially since I have 2 LBs who have byes in week 9. Suggs fits the bill. Make some tackles and a sack in weeks 9 and 10 and we won't have any problems. Consistently out perform one of my other LBs and you'll see some Flex IDP time. If he's my top scoring LB, then I either have serious problems at the top or I have found the diamond in the rough.
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| 157 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 13:06
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21.08. Alex Henery PK PHL
At this point in the draft, I only have one Eagle on my team (Celek), which is unheard of. So when it came time for a PK, I wanted Henery. He's pretty reliable, the Eagles often have trouble in the red zone so he is called upon often. With Vick at the helm I expect those same issues to continue even under Kelly. And, yes, TD, I though you would be grabbing Henery right before me, especially since you snatched him from me in G24.
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| 158 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 13:50
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18.08 Long, Chris STL DE
I needed a 2nd DL to fill out my roster. Long is a former 2nd overall NFL draft pick who has had 24.5 sacks over the last two seasons. I am hoping he can get over 15 sacks this season.
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| 159 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 13:53
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19.07 Foster, Mason TBB LB
I drafted Foster as my 3rd LB. He had good tackle numbers his first two seasons and has some upside potential.
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| 160 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 13:58
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20.08 Washington, Leon NEP RB
I drafted Washington as my 4th RB. He is the type of RB that I like to keep on my roster for bye weeks and injuries. He will be used in a variety of roles in the Patriots offense and as a kick returner. Although he doesn't have a high upside, he will problably average about 5-6 fantasy points a week.
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| 161 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 14:01
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21.07 Tucker, Justin Bal PK
Tucker has a strong leg and converted all his extra points and over 90% of his field goals as a rookie last season. I expect more of the same this season.
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| 162 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 15:17
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20.05 Kevin Burnett, LB, Oakland Raders
after picking backups for all offense positions it was finally time to get my 7th defense starter. It was clear for me that I would take a LB here. I also wanted to get a LB that is expected to also play on every down. not all linebackers do so and only a few are left. so it was time to get one of the better ones at this point. Kevin Burnett it is. his tackle numbers seem to be above all other LB's available at the moment. I hope that this comes true.
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| 163 | s R
ID: 3274072
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 16:52
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19.06 Stephen Hill, WR, NYJ
No.1 WR for the Jets? WR5 in my fantasy team...
20.09 Marcel Reece, RB, Oak
He does everything well and caught 52 passes out of the backfield last year.
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| 164 | Bonka
Sustainer
ID: 019742310
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 21:36
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21.11 Quinton Patton, WR, SFO
A couple guys I wanted more went before I got up, so I ended up with Patton. This is one of those late round picks where either the player shows something in the first week or two or gets tossed back for waiver pickup. He flashed during preseason so might as well take a chance for now.
22.04 Randy Bullock, K, HOU
Kicking on a good offense in a dome for a team that has had good K production.
23.11 DeMeco Ryans, LB, PHI
Philly's D is pretty bad, so they should have a hard time getting off the field. This should equate to lots of tackles in the end and Ryans should rack up a good portion of them.
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| 165 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 22:26
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22.07 Kenny Vaccaro DB NO
This is somewhat of a bye week pick, but the rookie is getting a good look see in the porous NO secondary. The scouting report says he does everything well: tackling, stopping the run, being speedy, using hands, following the receivers, etc. His only weakness appears to be overagressiveness. At the very least he will provide some points during special team defense.
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| 166 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sun, Sep 01, 2013, 22:35
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23.08. Keenan Allen WR SD
Another rookie for my team! He apparently has good size, hands, and route running, with "a clear path to playing time in 2013." He is next in line (after Royal) for punt returns. Time will tell, as the SD receiving corps is a mess and Rivers is not the greatest passer...
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| 167 | Bonka
Sustainer
ID: 019742310
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 02:57
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24.04 Ryan Clark, S, PIT
Nothing special here, just grabbing my last starter. Clark has been a solid producer and should continue that this year. Most DBs are interchangable so that's why I waited to grab both of them.
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| 168 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:19
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17.09 Cortland Finnegan, DB, STL
83 solo tackles and 3 picks in his first year with the Rams after 6 decent years with the Titans. Has produced solid tackle numbers throughout his career. Usually better to play safeties at DB, but Finnegan is one of the better CBs and should be serviceable.
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| 169 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:24
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18.06 Johnathan Cyprien, S, JAX
The 33rd overall pick in the 2013 draft, Cyprien appears to be the starting strong safety in Jacksonville. I think the Jacksonville D will be on the field a lot this year, giving Cyprien the opportunity to post good tackle numbers. He had a hamstring injury before training camp, but seems to be back to good health.
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| 170 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:30
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19.09 Lance Briggs, LB, CHI
Unbeknownst to me until the draft was over, my draft strategy apparently was to avoid anyone with 3-7 years of NFL experience. Briggs is 32 years old, and has posted 100+ tackles in 8 of his 10 NFL seasons, only missing 4 games during that time. With Urlacher gone, there may be a few additional tackles to go around. High floor, but low ceiling.
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| 171 | s R
ID: 4734262
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:31
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21.06 Markus Wheaton, WR, Pit
The Steelers are hurting at running back, but they should throw the ball a good amount. Wheaton has the skills to overtake Emmanuel Sanders in targets.
22.09 Steven Hauschka, PK, Sea
I like Hauschka because of the quantity of attempts he’ll get and the well-rounded offense that has his back.
23.06 Derek Wolfe, DL, Den
This was just because Avril is questionable.
24.09 Demario Davis, LB, NYJ
He is set to slide into an every-down role at WILB for a defense that will likely be on the field quite a bit this year.
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| 172 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:35
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20.06 Matt Prater, DEN, K
I know, I know. Don't draft a kicker until the last round. But I think it is important to draft a kicker who meets 3 criteria - (1) accurate, (2) ability to make 50+ yarders, and (3) has an offense that can move the ball. Prater is one of a handful of guys that I felt met those criteria, so I "reached" (if anyone is ever a reach in Rd 20) for him. I do think their is a chance that the RB mess in Denver might hurt their red-zone TD efficiency, which would also help Prater.
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| 173 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:39
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21.09 Jason Babin, DL, JAX
The 33 year old had 18 sacks in 2011, but 2012 was not good. He is going to play the "Leo" DE position in the Jags defense, which apparently is the primary pass rusher. We'll see if he has anything left in the tank. If not, my DL2 will just be DL-du jour.
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| 174 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:45
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22.06 Percy Harvin, WR, SEA
With as deep as our rosters are, I figured I would take a shot at rostering Harvin in hopes that he returns to the field around Thanksgiving and can get back to full speed in time for the fantasy playoffs. The Hawks should be in tough competition with the Niners for the NFC West title, forcing them to play all out through at least week 16. In hindsight, the 2 safeties I considered here (Quin and Bell) got drafted before I picked again, so I probably should have taken one of them instead.
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| 175 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:48
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23.09 Erin Henderson, LB, MIN
The mediocre stat projections I've seen for Henderson do not seem to match the glowing reviews I've seen. He is moving from the outside to the inside, and apparently "thriving" as the Mike. Seems like it would be a tackle heavy position. We'll put him on the roster and see what numbers he can put on the stat sheet.
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| 176 | Smith32
ID: 39749157
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 09:53
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24.06 Antoine Bethea, DB, IND
A two-time pro-bowler who has posted at least 70 solo tackles and played 16 games in each of the past 5 seasons. Weak in the "glory stats" though, and LaRon Landry joining the Colts secondary may take away some stats from Bethea. But as a Redskins fan, I know Landry can't stay healthy, so I am not worried. Another high floor-low ceiling guy.
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| 177 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 10:44
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22.12 Glover Quin, S, DET
From the small amount I’ve seen of Quin this preseason, he’s looked pretty good. I’m looking for a depth IDP Flex play in case one of my LBs/DBs don’t work out.
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| 178 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 10:45
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23.06 Garrett Hartley, K, NO
He’s a kicker, and he plays for the Saints. As long as he starts the year with the job, then that’s fine with me.
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| 179 | I_AM_CANADIAN
ID: 14615220
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 10:45
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24.12 Lamarr Houston, DE, OAK
Looking at my team DL will need two bye week fill-ins prior to any other position, so I may as well grab a guy here. The Raiders deference will likely be spending a lot of time on the field this year, with tons of tackle opportunities.
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| 180 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 11:33
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22.08 Bess, Davone CLE WR
Bess is a slot receiver who has had some success with the Dolphins. I expect he will be frequently used especially on 3rd downs in his first season with the Browns.
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| 181 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 11:39
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23.07 Leshoure, Mikel DET RB
After missing his rookie season because of injury, Leshoure ran for 798 yards and 9 TDs last season. Although the Lions signed Reggie Bush, I expect Leshoure to have a role especially in short yardage and goal line situations.
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| 182 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 11:42
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24.08 DeCoud, Thomas ATL S
Decoud is a 6th year saftety who has put up good tackle and interception numbers the last two seasonss. Will be used as a bye week IDP.
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| 183 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 13:44
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21.10 T.J. Ward, DB, Cleveland Browns
after getting a 3rd LB it was also time to get a 3rd DB. I wanted someone with potential for lots of tackles and TJ Ward has proven that he is able to do so. because of injuries last year he played more in coverage and less against the run which saw his tackles total dip a lot. I expect that he will see a rise in tackles again. I doubt that he will come close to the 95 solo tackles he had in 2010 but if he gets near that he will likely be used more than for the 2 games where my current starters are on bye.
22.05 Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins
I targeted Jacoby Ford here but he went a few picks too early. wanted more depth with players where my others are not on bye. Santana Moss is such a player. When RG3 is healthy he is a good passer. WR on his team should benefit from that because he keeps defenders looking at him which opens more space for the receivers. Moss is the #3 guy and will probably see lots of such passess. I also saw some depth charts (incl. the Redskins official one) where he is listed as the teams punt returner. I don't know if that will happen or not but I'll take it if that is true.
23.10 Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Cleveland Browns
with the latest cuts the Browns were down to 1 running back + Chris Ogbonnaya who they list as starting full back. unless Trent Richardson gets all the carries, Ogbonnaya should see a few of them too. he is also a good blocker and may become a favorable target in the passing game.
shortly after I made this pick the Browns added 2 young running backs. it needs to be seen who will see the most opportunities. I doubt that it will be Ogbonnaya but it was worth the gamble that I will probably take into week 1 to exchange him into a hot waiver pickup.
24.05 Mason Crosby, K, Green Bay Packers
we need to start a kicker. since their points largely depend on other factors, such as if the offense gets regularly stopped within 30 yards, I never draft a kicker before the last round.
I choose to get Crosby simply because the Packers will be often near the opposing endzone. it then does not matter much if the result is a FG or a PAT. I may hope for more FG's but will take 6 PAT's with no FG too.
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| 184 | holt
Donor
ID: 308491916
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 17:23
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19.13 Kenny Stills, NOS, WR
Stills is fast and has good hands. Brees spreads the ball around so maybe Stills will contribute as a rookie. As a Sooners fan, Stills was always a guy who seemed more interested in himself than the team, but as a fantasy owner, that is A-OK.
20.02 Matt Bryant, ATL, PK
A kicker in rd 20. I've taken a kicker in the last round of all the other drafts I've done this season, and maybe I was just tired of picking from the scraps. I'm not really sure. I had run out of must-have players so just went with a good kicker on a good offense. In hindsight, Andre Roberts might have been a decent pick here.
21.13 Alfonso Smith, ARI, RB
Smith appears to be #2, and there's no reason to expect Mendenhall to make it through the year unscathed. Hopefully I never need to consider starting Smith. M Wheaton may turn out to be a decent pick for sR in the 21st.
22.02 Jacoby Ford, OAK, WR
Catches some passes and returns kicks and punts for the Raiders. That's gonna be a lot of kick returns. Heck, he may end up being a weekly starter.
23.13 Aaron Dobson, NEP, WR
I don't mind having Dobson but this was supposed to be my 2nd DB. Somehow my queue order came out backwards. Now I'll have to spend $1 to pick up a DB for week 1. Dobson has some good athletic ability and a good QB. I'm not confident that he'll put up good numbers this season but everything in NE is weird. Worth a late rd pick.
24.02 Felix Jones, PIT, RB
Le 'Veon hurt, Dwyer cut, Redman stink. Felix may still be learning the playbook but he's a hell of a lot better runner than Redman. If Bell doesn't come back and perform well I'd put my money on Felix leading the team in rushing yards (and he's a pretty capable receiver as well).
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| 185 | Judy
ID: 28523116
Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 21:23
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24.07 Fletcher Cox DL PHL
Cox improved throughout the season to the point where Andy had to play him. Seemed to be the best IDP option and a 3rd DL for bye week. And, of course, a homer pick!!
I really wanted to give due diligence to Nick Moody SF LB who made their team and will be seen mostly on special teams. I taught him in 8th grade Science way back when. Bright kid, but stubborn. Hope he sticks.
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| 186 | Kyle
Sustainer
ID: 052753312
Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:31
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21.12 Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE
Play well in week 8. Don't get hurt. Possibly fill in if Bennett gets hurt or the Bears play a very stingy D. That's your job buddy. Underperform and you're cut.
22.03 Bailey, Dan DAL PK
Hey guys, I drafted a kicker and it isn't round 24. This guy was 7th on my list and the 8th kicker off the board. Better than not having a kicker.
23.12 Woodson, Charles OAK S
This guy might be the first guy off my roster. Or he could be the stud of all studs. He's old, the defense will be on the field a lot and he still gets tackles and INTs. Before he got hurt last year he was having a pretty good season. Not bad for a 3rd DB and 9th IDP.
24.03 Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB
Ooops. This is what I get for drafting from my engagement party after the majority of the party had wrapped up and it turned into a bags and drinking festival.
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| 187 | wiggs
Leader
ID: 04991311
Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 23:44
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21.14 Woods, Robert BUF WR
Shot in the dark here with this pick. I really do not like Woods a whole lot- but he could be there go to guy. This is like a lotto ticket- I do not expect it to pan out, but if it does I will be psyched.
22.01 Danard Robinson Jax RB
MJD coming off an injury that really hurt him last season. If he has the same time of injury this season Robinson could be a total steal. If not he didnt really hurt me with this spot.
23.14 Toby Gerhart Minn RB
Handcuffing AP-
24.01 Jon Abraham LB Ari
With Washington out I thought I had read that Abraham would be the new pass rushing threat. Now I am seeing in the depth chart he is a back up. I might have wasted this pick, but I guess we will see this week
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| 188 | twilson
ID: 317202915
Thu, Sep 05, 2013, 20:34
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12.14 Josh Freeman TB QB
13.01 Donald Butler SD LB
A few nice IDPs were taken in the interim between my picks. Perhaps I should’ve gone DL2 in the 11th instead of LB2, but what’s done is done. The options at backup QB are thinning out at this point, so I think it’s time to make that pick. Freeman may have questionable quarterbacking skills, but his fantasy performance has been nothing but solid over the past couple years. If he just manages to match recent history, he will be a value here. The only negative is that he shares a bye week with RGIII, so I may need to use a roster spot on a third-stringer. I also considered E.J. Manuel, but the uncertainty about his injury status for week 1 rendered him a no go on a team led by Griffin III.
I had Donald Butler pegged as a sleeper stud entering 2012, and he didn’t quite live up to expectations. Instead, he was more of a solid presence until hurting himself in the second half. I still think that upside remains, and he should have plenty of time on the field given the ever-weakening San Diego offense. I very nearly took Cordarrelle Patterson here after he survived two more rounds. He could really blow up in this format given his return prowess, but he doesn’t quite seem ready to take on a significant role in the offense. Maybe I’ll be kicking myself come season’s end for taking the steady LB over the dynamic WR, but it’s the move I felt was right in the moment.
14.14 Osi Umenyiora ATL DL
15.01 Von Miller DEN LB
The last of the really interesting WRs left the board with Bonka’s pick of Kerley at 14.04. Thus, my attention shifted elsewhere for the time being. Clay Matthews remained appealing, but now is too early for another LB at this level. I think I can get similar value much later, so better to invest in resources that will be gone soon. Not loving the RB/TE options, and I’m stocked up at QB, so that leaves DB and DL as options. I liked the look of the lineman best, and strongly considered a bunch of names. Peppers, Morgan, and Michael Johnson in particular. In the end, I thought Osi had the most appealing upside of the group.
It may be too early, but I am just such a fan of Von Miller as a football player and fantasy stud that I had to take him here. I think he’s a cut above the rest at LB on a per game basis, and I’m willing to wait through the suspension to have that on my team. It helps that he plays a position where I have confidence that I’ll get by just fine until he returns. The roster spot is more of a concern than finding another LB to play, but benches are deep enough in RIFC that I think I can handle it.
16.14 Devin McCourty NE DB
17.01 Malcom Floyd SD WR
It was amusing to see Devin’s twin go off the board immediately prior to my pick. I preferred Devin anyhow due to his kick return duties. He was the #2 scorer last year after a DB-worthy performance in 2011, so he’s certainly got a chance to produce for me. He’s switching positions from cornerback to free safety, which adds uncertainty to his projections. We shall see what kind of impact that has. I may have taken Tyvon Branch had he still been available here.
Malcom Floyd was Mr. Steady last year, putting up respectable but never exciting stats week after week. The return to health of Vincent Brown puts a damper on any optimism I might have, but it’s not like there are any other WRs on the board that excite me either. Dexter McCluster was a consideration, but the scuttlebutt is that he is unhappy with his role on the team and that he may lose some of his return duties to Knile Davis. That was enough to steer me back to Malcom.
18.14 Daniel Thomas MIA RB
19.01 Brandon Weeden CLE QB
Nothing standing out as obvious values, so I figured I would take care of some necessary roster fill-out. Though I’m fairly confident that Lamar Miller is the solid #1 in Miami, having Thomas handcuffs the chance that I’m wrong.
By taking two QBs with the same bye week, and an early one (5) at that, I felt it was safer to carry a QB3 on the roster than rely on the vagaries of the FA pool. I may change my mind if a good pickup presents itself, but for now 3 QBs it is. Weeden is in his second year, with a talented #1 WR also a rising sophomore. He has a nice matchup in the week I need him.
20.14 Rob Ninkovich NE DL
21.01 Andre Roberts ARI WR
I’m waiting on my third LB starter for now, as I have a value target later. No DB or PK stands out to me at this point, so I’ll just grab one of each last and call it a day. Though it seems unnecessary, I do still like a couple DL options, with Ninkovich leading the way. He was fairly productive last year, and the touts I consider him promising. With Osi no guarantee to return to form this year, I figure that in the lack of other interesting alternatives, Ninkovich is as good a pick as any here.
My WR corps still leaves a lot to be desired, so I decided to take another stab at the position in the 21st. Andre Roberts was borderline starter-worthy in 2012 with the total mess that Arizona had at QB. Michael Floyd will usurp some of Roberts’ targets this year, but it’s possible that a return to competence by the Cardinals offense makes up for it.
22.14 Justin Houston KC LB
23.01 Yeremiah Bell ARI DB
I’ve been targeting Houston as my LB3 for the latter third of the draft. He finished as the 29th best LB in this format last year, and I think he has the passrushing talent to step up his performance another notch. Young, talented, and cheap—an ideal late round pick.
Yeremiah Bell has put up respectable numbers before, though not last year. Hopefully he can do it again, at least until I find something better in the free agent pool.
24.14 Mike Nugent CIN PK
Needed a kicker. Among those still available, Nugent had the best combination of team offense and experience. Plus, he’s usually good for a missed XP each year, which keeps things entertaining.
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| 189 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Sep 06, 2013, 12:00
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The Rationale thread is now complete. Thanks to everyone for your thoughtful contributions.
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