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Subject: Gambling Question
Posted by: PartsUnknown
- [511054227] Sun, Nov 22, 2009, 08:54
I have an 8-team parlaying going right now. With two games to go, I'm 6-for-6.
7-for-8 pays 100
8-for-8 pays 2000
I'd like to make as much money as possible while also hedging my bets as I dont want to lose everything. How should I hedge?
I have the Falcons +7 (at Gians) and Titans +6 (at Texans) remaining. |
| 1 | DWetzel
ID: 33337117
Sun, Nov 22, 2009, 11:41
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I'm not a gambler, but I think I can get close on this one:
Assuming you're 50/50 on each of your last two games, your EV for the parlay right now is:
25% * 0 = 0
50% * 100 = 50
25% * 2000 = 500
total $550.
If you put X on the Giants today, then:
50% = X + $50 (you win your Giants bet, plus half the value of the $100 parlay depending on Monday night)
50% = $1000 - X (you lose your Giants bet, but then the parlay is worth half of $2000).
Seems like if you bet $475 on the Giants you would be at $525 EV either way.
So, do that, then:
If the Giants bet wins, bet $50 on the Texans; you either win your $50 bet or lose your $50 but win $100 on the game bet, net +$50. Total net +$525.
If the Giants lose, you are down $475 on the Giants bet, but your parlay is alive. Then you bet $950 on the Texans, and either lose that bet but win your parlay (net $1050, total net $575) or win the Texans bet and $100 for your parlay (net $1050, net $575).
This isn't exactly right and doesn't account for your vig on the bets, but it should get you in the ballpark.
I ought to be able to get everything to $550 exactly if I was thinking clearly, but well, I'm horribly stuffed up and Nyquil is good. Besides, it's more fun to sweat the extra $50.
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| 2 | PartsUnknown
ID: 5110272211
Sun, Nov 22, 2009, 12:27
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Thanks a lot. I appreciate it.
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| 3 | Donkey Hunter
Leader
ID: 916288962
Sun, Nov 22, 2009, 19:42
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Let it ride.
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| 4 | DWetzel at work
ID: 49962710
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 16:31
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That would have been the more profitable (not to be confused with the wisest) course.
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