RotoGuru Basketball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: RIHC 2006-07: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Oct 13, 2006, 14:03

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. The best practice is to post your rationale immediately before making your next pick. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the current draft discussion thread and I can copy it over. Please do NOT post your rationale in this thread if it is out of sequence.

The general format should be:
1.01 Kevin Garnett, F, MIN
Several sentences of rationale.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. For example, create a post that says:
For Guru
1.08 Dwyane Wade, G, Mia


As a part of your first round rationale, please comment on your choice of draft order as well.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
50EuroGollum
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:05
4.09 Andre Miller, PG, Den

This pick was always going to be a PG for us. They key was really when the PG run that was bound to happen (and did shortly after this pick), did. As it turns out, we ended up having our pick of most of the 2nd tier PGs. So we plumped for Andre Miller.

The stage is set for Miller to have a career year, or at least his best year since Cleveland. There has been much talk of George Karl's implementation of a new fast-flowing offense in Denver that seems destined to net Andre assists by the barreload. If the usual frontcourt suspects can stay healthy and Melo continues to improve, it's easy to see how this could happen. Melo himself has come out and said Miller will lead the NBA in assists this year. So, since we're in desperate need of those, this seems like a perfect choice. Andre doesn't shoot 3s, but this helps to keep his FG% at a very high level for a PG, and he's also another good FT shooter. But obviously his main attraction is his potential 10 apg, along with being another player that is extremely durable.

Other candidates for this slot were Baron, Nelson, Mike James and Felton, 3 of which were (somewhat surprisingly) available when things came back around to us.

51MikeV
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:06
4.10 Richard Jefferson, SF, NJ

I had hoped to get a PF by this time but it was a bit of a reach for those remaining. I have Jefferson as a top 30 player that will contribute 20 pts, near 7 rebs and shoot at near 50%. I also considered Artest and Ginobili. I'll probably make the reach for a PF on my next pick.
52HoopsKlyce
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:07
4.11 Ron Artest, SF, Sac

I recognize the risk involved with taking Artest but it is just my gut feeling he will get through this season without any blowups. While Josh Smith can make an impact in blocks, Artest has the ability to make an impact in the steal category as well as generally contribute accross the stat sheet. Artest has the potential to perform like a third round pick or better and slipped to this point because I am sure other managers did not want to take on the risk he presents.
53Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Tue, Oct 17, 2006, 22:08
4.12 Jason Terry, PG, Dal

I traded down with skinneej and then later with RSF because most of the guys slated to go in those areas I really didn’t want, or couldn’t choose between. After the skinneej deal, no one really came off that I wanted. After the RSF deal, I was surprised to see the Euros take Andre Miller, though I knew that was a risk in making the deal. I had him queued up as my number 2 guy at 4.12 and 5.01. With him gone, Jason Terry was still available and was my pick at 4.12.

I wanted Terry to supplement my roster with 3s, assists, steals, points, and good percentages. His assists have come down and with word of him playing shooting guard, that may slightly continue. But he should do very well in those many other categories. He should become eligible at SG after a short time. Also was considering Jefferson, Jamison, Mike James, and Baron Davis.

5.01 Baron Davis, PG, GS

With Jefferson gone, Jamison, James and B. Davis were my final choices. I usually make safe choices. However, I strayed once last season and it worked out very well for me. I decided to do it again here.

So I took injury prone, fat, attitude challenged Baron Davis. But wait---he lost 15 pounds in the off-season. He is healthy, and is excited about the spiritual revelation he attained from another player who told him to “just have fun” and put less stress on himself. Nellie has taken over the ship. If BD can be a shadow of Tim Hardaway in his prime or Steve Nash in Dallas, well, “whoa Nellie.” Could be a mistake to pair him with Howard from a FT standpoint. But BD was 5/5 the other night, has been challenged by Nellie to shoot ‘em better, and I’m banking (hoping) he improves them. With his great impact on so many other cats, I felt like taking a chance.

Jamison would have fit here nicely. He would have been a smart, safer choice. Same with James. But I didn’t feel like taking them. Oh well. Gotta have a little fun once in a while.
57Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:53
For hoopsklyce

5.02 Rasheed Wallace, PF, DET
With my first four picks being SG/SF types I thought I better try to get a bigger guy. While Rasheed is listed as a PF, he actually plays like a SF. However I am hoping that perhaps at some point during the season he can earn C eligibility. While he does not have too much upside, I am hoping I can rely on the output that he typcially provides. I thought it would also be nice to have a high character team and was happy to have Rasheed join Ron Artest on my team.
58MikeV
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:54
5.03 Manu Ginobili, SG, SAS

I had already written in Rasheed when Hoopsklyce took him right ahead of me. The next PF on my list is ranked in the mid-50s while Manu, who contributes in all catagories, and a top 40 pick is still there. It's starting to look like I'm conceding rebounds already.
59Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 13:55
5.04 Raymond Felton, PG, CHA

When in doubt, select another point guard...right? Right? Right?

I suppose we should have been looking for another big man here, but once Kaman was taken by RSF, we really didn't see any bigs worthy of taking over the slew of very nice PGs that were still there for the taking. Having gone quite safe with Miller the previous round, figured it was time to gamble a bit on a breakout PG prospect. And Felton's the man. Besides, you can never have too many point guards...right? right? Right???

Felton has serious bust out potential. A quick glance at his post All-Star numbers reveals a 16-8-3 line with 2 treys and 1.4 steals. He certainly has a chance to replicate those numbers over a full season given the new and returning talent in Charlotte. What we're talking here is almost an exact Baron Davis clone, without the injuries hopefully.
60RecycledSpinalFluid
      ID: 35616416
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:10
5.05 Jameer Nelson, PG, ORL

When in doubt, select another point guard...right? Right? Right?

Originally had Kaman and a point guard from the trio of BDiddy, Felton and Nelson targeted for the 4.12/5.01 slots. As said before I swapped picks to ensure I got Kaman with the idea there were still a slew of quality PGs out there, including Dre Miller and Tony Parker, that one of my targeted three would survive. Fortunately it worked out that way, despite Mike D's best efforts to draft all the remaining point gaurds in the draft with the picks I moved to him.

I am actually very pleased (or more like relieved) that Nelson was the remaining one. I have always had reservations with Davis because of injury liability and just a crappy attitude. I was also concerned with Felton due to Charlotte also still having that mini-me version of Uncle Fester, veteran point guard still hanging around, possibly eating PT.

Of course, Nelson is battling a concusion from butting heads with Dwight Howard...how the hell did that happen?

Jameer's shooting percentages are phenominal for a PG who likes to pop 3s. Decent steals and dimes, I can see him replicating the numbers Jason Terry put up last season.
62Uptown Bombers
      ID: 35616416
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:13
5.06 Mike James, G, MIN

As I prepared my queue for this round I had the relief of realizing that at least I didn’t have to be ranking 35 players, as I did for the previous two rounds. Once again, I targeted help in 3’s, assists, and FT%. Mike James brings all of that to the table. This is a pick I am happy with value wise, as well as being a good fit for my team. Judging by some of the other comments in the rationales, James was an option for some since the late 4th round. I guess there might be something to be said for the fact that he got skipped over by those people, but I am happy to add him to my team.

Certainly I expect his scoring numbers to drop since he will no longer be the top option on the T-Wolves, but that may lead to better shot selection and improved assist numbers. The one concern is that he isn’t a proven commodity, having only shined for one year. He doesn’t “feel” like a fifth rounder. I’m confident, however, that he is not a one year wonder, and he should help my team all around. Only other player I had ranked ahead of him in my queue for this pick was Raymond Felton, who was snatched two picks earlier. Felton has more break-out potential than James and would have given me a boost in steals that my team needs. In the long run, I am happy the way it worked out. If James was gone, Jamison would have been my pick.
63coldwater coyotes
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:21
5.07 Antawn Jamison F WAS

Jamison was clearly topping my list so I decided to trade up three picks to get him as there was a good chance that he would be taken ahead of me. Good all round contributor but nothing spectacular so he tends to fall to round 5 or 6 in drafts.
64Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:24
5.08 Caron Butler, F, Was

This has been an odd draft. In the even rounds, my short lists seem to be getting obliterated, leaving me scrambling to find alternatives at the last minute. In the odd rounds, my short lists seem to be almost unscathed, forcing me to pick between multiple options. I guess the guys in the back end of the draft have similar values (or similar needs), and the guys in the front half are out of step with my way of thinking. Given that some of the guys in the front of the draft have been very successful in this league, I can’t say that I find this situation comforting.

About 8 picks ago, my short list (in no particular order) was Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and Andre Iguodala. Jamison is older (30), offers better scoring, rebounds, and 3s, but worse shooting %s. Iguodala is the youngest (22), offers better statistical balance and 50% FG shooting, but the lowest scoring of the three. Butler is similar to Iggie in many respects, with better scoring, better FT%, and lower FG%. I was kind of hoping that only one would survive, making my choice easy. I’m fairly certain that none will make it back, given the brief history of this draft.

After a long wait, I decided that Jamison was my top choice, so naturally, he went in the pick just before me. It wasn’t someone from the front side of the draft order taking him, either; it was CC changing sides. Figures.

Butler offers decent statistical balance again. It’s hard to believe he’s already entering his fifth NBA season. His second half stats lat year were better than the opening half, averaging 19 points, 7 boards, 2.6 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 48% from the field and 87% from the line. If he can put up those numbers for a full year, then I’ll probably owe Coldwater Coyotes a debt of gratitude.
65skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 17:55
5.09 Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, PHI

Of the 14 guys I had on my list after the previous pick, 7 were still available when my scheduled pick was due. I don’t know if that’s bad or good. I decided that I’d be better off moving down a few spots and maybe nabbing two of them instead. My hopes were that Antawn Jamison would slip again this season as he was a nice pick last year in the 7th round for me. He was the 5th BPA remaining on my rankings, but he was the top player remaining on Yahoo’s list. I guess I was just dreaming that he’d make it back to me around the turn. I considered taking another PG here and Tony Parker was the guy I would have taken. Seeing that Parker went with the next pick, I guess I was not the only one. Taking a 2nd PG here would affect the direction of my draft the rest of the way, but I still have several guys I like in lower rounds.

I had 3 areas I wanted to improve on with this pick: Stls, Pts and FG%. Once Butler was taken, Andre was the logical choice. I moved down two spots expecting one of them to be left and it worked out. He doesn’t score as many points as Caron, but his steal numbers and FG% are a little higher. He also has multi position eligibility, so that is a bonus. As a 4th year player, I can only expect his numbers to improve over last years and he should be a very solid player for me.
66Florian
      Sustainer
      ID: 034815289
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:08
5.10 Tony Parker, G, SA

I was really hoping to get one of Jamison, Caron Butler or Iguodala with this pick as I felt all three were significantly better than my next group of players. As all three were still available with only three teams picking ahead of me, I was sure one of the three would end up on my team. Unfortunately that didn't happen and I was left scrambling to come up with a pick. I considered Parker, Battier and West for this pick and was ideally hoping to pick up two of them over the next six picks. Looking at Lionprideguy's and Footwedge's teams it was evident that there was virtually no chance of Parker making it back to my pick in the sixth round, but I thought there a some chance of West making it back and a good chance of Battier making it back. So I picked Parker.

Parker shoots a fantastic FG% (55%), especially for a PG. He also takes enough shots to make that FG% have a large effect on team FG%. I hope he'll shoot a similar percentage this year and continue to improve his ppg to about 20. He'll average 6 assists, about 3 rebounds, and get one steal per game. Unfortunately he will hit very few 3 pointer and his FT% is terrible for a PG.
67lionprideguy @work
      Leader
      ID: 906204
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:35
5.11 David West, F, NOR

I have learned me lesson: anytime Florian offers me a trade, I need to accept it. This one is all my fault. For this pick, I started looking at a list of choices at the start of round 5 and figured I really need to draft a PG. I would have taken Jamison if by some miracle he fell, and after that there was the list of PGs: Nelson, Felton, James, and then Parker. Three went 5.04-5.06, then Jamison, but then there are two more forwards drafted and I'm thinking I've caught a break! Florian offers me the opportunity to trade picks for 5.10 and I figure he's got two guards already, no forwards, and he's going to take David West or Chris Webber and I'm safe to hold on to 5.11 and get Parker there. Oops.

David West was a safe, consistent pick. I am worried about some of his shots, and scoring, going down because of Peja's arrival. I'm thinking his rebounding will possibly also be lower this year than last, and he might be a bit overrated right now because all the new pieces in NO are going to take away from him. But he still shoots great% from the field and the FT line, will keep improving as a player since last year was only his fifth getting regular minutes, and did too well last year for them to go away from him altogether. I'm still desperate for a PG and some assists, but he'll provide consitent numbers as a role player on my team.

68Footwedge
      ID: 544546
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:38
5.12 Chris Webber, F, PHI

6.01 Ben Gordon, G, CHI

Webber was best available pick. Gambling on another reasonably healthy year. 65-70 games would make me happy here.
Gordon was a panic pick because I needed a guard badly after the double center thing in three and four. 3’s was the main motivation also hoping to see a little more PT, but with the crowded Chicago guard rotation that’s probably just wishful thinking.

Just noticed Kiri , Camby and CWebb I could rename my team M*A*S*H.
69lionprideguy @work
      Leader
      ID: 906204
      Wed, Oct 18, 2006, 21:50
6.02 Deron Williams, G, UTA
This pick was a reach, but I didn't feel right waiting all the way until 7.11, 20 picks later, and still with Diaw being my leading assist man from the C spot. I do like Williams' potential and we all know he started to put up good numbers the second half of last year, averaging 13 points and 5.5 assists while hitting 1.7 3's/G at a crazy 52.6% from downtown. He won't keep that up, but even the 42% from 3 for the year is very solid. There has been a lot of praise out of the Jazz training camp that Deron arrived even better than last year after working hard all summer, and has been outstanding in camp according to all I've read. Williams' motivation and drive has always set him apart, as he would work on weaknesses to get significantly better each year at Illinois, and he's doing it again in the NBA. Overall the Jazz are committed to providing big minutes to Williams after drafting him so high, and don't have many good alternatives to challange him in the backcourt anyway. If he can score 14/game, while making a jump to 6-7 assists with 1.5 3's and good % numbers, at least it's a solid start.

If I wasn't so worried about a guard I might have taken Troy Murphy here, and considered Josh Howard too. In the end, I just needed my first PG too badly and may have stretched for it.

71Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:32
for Florian
6.03 Shane Battier F HOU

I really needed blocks at this point. I thought about giving up on the category all together, but with 10 of my 15 picks still remaining I wasn't quite ready to do that. I had Battier pegged since the previous round, so I didn't have to think about this pick too long. I considered Dalembert, but you never know what you're going to get from Dalembert and I felt Battier was the better all around player. Battier main values are in blocks (110), steals (90) and 3PTM(65). He only scores 10 ppg, pulls down about 5 rebounds and contributes about 2 assists. I'm hoping for a little more scoring and 3PTM this year as Van Gundy has told him he needs to shoot more. Battier shoots an excellent FG% (.488 last year) considering his 3 point attempts.
72Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:32
for skinneej
6.04 Richard Hamilton G DET
Maybe Richard “the Mask” Hamilton will be my "steal" this season. He slipped from where I expected him to go and was the 4th BPA on my rankings after my 4th round pick. Again, not sure if that is good or bad. What Richard brings is scoring, good FG and FT pcts and decent ast numbers for a 2 guard. I also considered Ricky Davis since he has higher assist numbers, more steals and hits a few more 3s. I think Rip’s advantage is that he is playing in a solid system where little has changed over the past few seasons (except losing Big Ben), and Davis is now in Minnesota where they have brought in several players that may take away from what Davis can do. I probably couldn’t go wrong with either pick, so I think my first 6 picks are pretty safe picks. No gambling this year with the likes of Artest early on (although it was tempting).
73Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 09:36
6.05 Morris Peterson, G/F, Tor
Last year, my 5th and 6th round picks did me in. I picked Boozer in round 5, and he played only 33 games. My 6th rounder was a 3 point specialist who hasn’t been picked until the 8th or 9th rounds in the other RIHC leagues that have gotten that far this month.

I feel pretty good about Butler as my 5th rounder, and now I’m trying to avoid a misstep in round 6. With three picks to go, my short list was Mo Pete, Charlie Villanueva, and Richard Hamilton. Hamilton was probably the least likely of the three to come up short, but I was concerned that too much of his strength is in the shooting percentages, and my ranking model always seems to assign elevated value to high percentage shooters, so I might be overvaluing him a tad. Anyway, he was taken right ahead of my pick, so the issue became moot.

Villanueva is only entering his second year, this time in Milwaukee. He brings a nice combo of blocks and 3s, the two cats that I’m weakest in so far. He may have the most upside of the three, but perhaps also the most downside.

Mo Pete is 29, and this will be a contract year. He’s shown durability (knock on wood) and steady improvement over the past several years, not just year-by-year, but half-year by half-year. For example, using the ASB as the midpoint of each season, his last 6 half seasons have produced successive scoring-per-game averages of 7.7-9.3-11.9-13.7-14.6-20.7. I’m not saying that I expect his scoring to be north of 20 ppg this year, but I like that trend. In addition to scoring, he should get 2+ treys per game and more than a steal. He also has G/F flexibility, which can’t hurt. His FG shooting is not high (43%), but that usually comes with a 3 point shooter.

[digression: I seem to have drafted a number of guys who played better in the second half of the season last year. Do most players put up better stats in the second half, or have I done better than average at scooping up those on the rise? We’ll see.]

Last season, Mo Pete ranked #41 for the full season on the ESPN player rater, vs. #75 for Villanueva. I only need Mo to repeat last year to justify taking him with pick #64. Charlie has been taken about a full round ahead of Mo on average in the other RIHC drafts so far, but he may just have a higher profile – or I may just be screwing up in the 6th round again.
74Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 10:05
6.06 Ricky Davis, SG/SF, Min

This was actually an original pick of mine in the 6th round that I didn’t trade for (woo-hoo!). I considered a ton of players here at this slot. I almost went with Brandon Roy but decided to play it safer after I made a riskier pick last round. Josh Howard was another guy I almost selected.

I ended up with Ricky Davis because he wanted to play with his namesake Baron Davis. Also, he contributes in so many categories. If the man could block shots, he’d be a huge fantasy star. As it is, he’s solid at # 66.

76Uptown Bombers
      ID: 35616416
      Thu, Oct 19, 2006, 21:28
6.07 Emeka Okafor, C, CHA

Is he healthy? That’s the bottom line with this pick. If so, then I think I have a steal. If not, then I still think it was worth the risk. Okafor has the potential to put up numbers (other than FG%) just slightly worse than Dwight Howard, who was drafted 3+ rounds ago. The FG% difference is nothing to throw away. I’d like it if my big men could help rather than hurt in that category. And he stinks in FT%, which I had tried to address with the previous three picks. As it turned out, I was able to get major help in that area with my next pick.

So the question remains: is he healthy? I think so. Supposedly, he buled up before last season, and that added weight put an additional strain on his body. This year, he has slimmed down once again. Hopefully this leads to two things: 1) that he will be comfortable with his playing weight and the injuries will cease and 2) that when Felton looks to run, Emeka runs with him. Generally I expect playing with Felton to help Okafor out, and perhaps even improve his FG% slightly thanks to penetration and fast breaks. So far in the preseason he has not looked great, including by all accounts, getting schooled by the previously mentioned Howard. I see this as Okafor needing to get back into game shape after missing so much time. While he might start out slow, I fully expect him to come on strong this season and for this pick to be one of my favorites. Thought about Troy Murphy, but I felt this pick had more charisma.
77Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 05:00
For Coldwater Coyotes

6.08 Charlie Villanueva, F, MIL
While Villanueva was top of my list I was concerned that there would be a run on second Centers and I wanted Krstic. I gambled that Krstic would be available for my sixth round pick. No such luck... Krstic, Wilcox, Dalembert and Frye were all taken before my next pick...tough league.

Villanueva could turn out to be a great pick as he helps in all categories except assists. However I am suspicious of why Toronto traded him for Ford. There are rumors that he has an attitude problem.

78Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 05:07
6.09 Troy Murphy, F, GSW

Murphy is a ferocious rebounder that offers moderate help in other categories. He offers about a three a game, but this takes it's toll on his FG% which was a pretty horrible 43% last year. However, we're in Nellie land now. For Troy, this means probable C eligibility, which should not be underestimated when guaging his value. He should also get to the line a bit more being fouled by those clumsy center types, and since he's pretty efficient from the line, it bodes well. We hope for Murphy to thrive in Nellie's offensive system, gain C eligibility and shoot a bit better from the field.

And thanks to LPG for maiming one of our centers before he even gets his eligibility. That Randolph dude has a lot to answer for ;)
79Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:08
For Mike V

6.10 Channing Frye, C, NY
Desperate for a PF, with Okafor, Murphy and Villanueva at the top of my queue 3 picks ago, I was sure to get one of them. Oh well. Whereas Frye doesn't help much in blocks or assists his %s are very nice at 50% and 82%
80Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:09
For Hoopsklyce

6.11 Josh Howard, SF, Dal
I felt considering the point I took Howard he was a good value pick. He has the potential to contribute in multiple categories and will be a key guy for the Mavs. Shortly after I selected him he signed a contract paying him around 10 mill per year. If he earns it this season I should be very happy with this selection.
81Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:10
6.12 Rafer Alston, PG, Hou

This was my 2nd 6th round pick. Josh Howard went right before me to Klyce, or I’d have had a tough time passing him up. Roy was still here and I almost took him. But I looked elsewhere, and was close to selecting either Randolph or Dalembert. I kept coming back to Alston because of his 3s, assists, and steals. A nice trifecta. I don’t pick again for a long time, so while it may have been a little early for Skip, I didn’t think he’d last until my next pick. And my team needed to add some East Coast playground flair to BD’s West Coast ballin’.
82RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:11
7.01 Samuel Dalembert, C, Phi

Just hoping this is the breakout year...finally. Potential is there for 10+ boards and 3+ blocks per. Not much of a scoring threat, but will get the close putbacks for a nice percentage. Definitely not a glamour pick but still a solid second center.

Hamstring issues have me worried...that and Mo Cheeks' doghouse.

If things work out right, this pick should put us in the running for blocks, but that Wallace/Camby/AK triumvirant is going to be pretty nasty...and hopefully pretty hurt. ;)
83Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:11
For Hoopsklyce

7.02 Nenad Krstic, C, NJ
I was excited to Kristic at this point as I needed a center. He is a young player who is quietly emerging for the Nets. He averaged 15 pts, 8 reb, and 1 bl in the last month of last season.
84MikeV
      Leader
      ID: 41831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:12
7.03 Luol Deng, SF, Chi

Deng averaged 16.3 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals after the All-Star break and will probably split time between SF and PF. He doesn't contribute in assists, blocks or 3s but 47% and 76% are nice.
85Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 09:37
7.04 Chris Wilcox, FC, SEA

Being buried behind uber-stud Elton Brand in the depth charts doesn't do a whole lot for your career. So it's a good job Wilcox managed to shoehorn himself out of California into the more fantasy-friendly environment of Seattle. And boy, did he ever take the chance that was given to him last season. Following his trade, Wilcox averaged a very respectable 14 points and 8 rebounds on a whopping 59% from the field. He's shot 53% for his career so this doesn't come as a total shock. I'm sure he's on just about every sleeper list there is, so it was now or never to grab him.

Wilcox addressed several issues for us. Whilst he's not a big shotblocker, he is C eligible and that FG% combined with meaningful FGA is extremely tough to find at this stage of a draft. Blocks still remains a slight concern for us, but when you get a chance to add a breakout player eligible at C, who's also doesn't hurt you from the line in round 7, you pretty much have to take that.

Very aware that another wave of Center grabbing was imminent, we also looked at Chandler and Darko here. We were totally stunned to see Chandler come back to us in 8, but more on that in the next rationale...
86RecycledSpinalFluid
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:16
7.05 Larry Hughes, SG, CLE

Tough choice for me here, but I think its quality value at this point. If Larry can produce with rock-hogs like Arenas and Jamison, then he should be able to produce as the 2nd/3rd option with LeBron and Big Z. I'm hoping for a blend of the last 2 seasons, something around 17-5-4 with 2 steals and a 3 per game. Not much love in the FG%.

A real mystery pick for me, but I do think is a fair-risk reward pick for a seventh rounder. Seriously considered Maggette and Harrington here.
87Uptown Bombers
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:16
7.06 Cory Maggette, SG/SF, LAC

Once I added another FT problem to my team, Maggette jumped to the top of my list. He shoots a lot of them and shoots them remarkably well. Additionally, I felt like I needed another reliable scorer. Recent news from Clipper land makes it sounds as if Maggette will be back in the starting line-up. When given the minutes, he is not only a scorer, but contributes across the board, excluding blocks. Even if he doesn’t start, I think he fits my team needs well. He’ll most likely miss time again this year as he always finds ways to get hurt. I’ll shuffle him in and out, and because of his dual eligibility, around the line-up. The 2nd player in my queue was Ridnour, who was drafted immediately after.
88skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:17
7.07 Luke Ridnour, PG, SEA

Looking over the available PGs here, there are three that I like: Cassell, Ridnour and TJ Ford. Cassell seems to be the best shooter of the 3 and the highest scorer, but as always injuries are a concern and he has strong competition at the position. I dropped Ridnour down a little after researching about his thumb injury and he also has potential to share time, but he lasted longer than I expected. His steal numbers and assists are better than the others and he shoots a very high FT%. That will help out in case I decide to go after some poor FT shooters later in the draft. Other players that I considered here were Nocioni, Randolph, and *gulp* Shaq. The Daddy is still available in rd 7, and centers are scarce, but I am still reluctant at this point to take on a guy that makes less than 4 of 8 FTs on average.
89Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 12:21
7.08 Al Harrington, F, Ind

I’d have taken Chris Wilcox here if he made it, but he went overseas instead. I have only one center so far, but don’t see any others that I want to reach for now.

My weakest stats right now are blocks and rebounds. Frankly, I may have already effectively punted on blocks – a common theme for my RIHC teams over the years – but at least so far I haven’t paid up for any shot blockers whose value might be wasted. The best rebounding options in this draft neighborhood are Harrington and Nocioni, and I think Harrington gets the nod based on better scoring potential. I’m hoping for 17 pts and 7 boards per game. His shooting percentages won’t help me, but 3 dimes, a steal and a trey per game help round out his value proposition.

90Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:09
for Coldwater Coyotes
7.09 T.J. Ford G TOR
Ford gives me the other side of the Villanueva trade...hopefully Colangelo knows what he is doing. Ford and Bosh (if his heel is OK) should be a powerful force for Toronto.

Ford will help in assists and steals but very damaging in FG%.

91Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:09
for Florian
7.10 Mike Miller F MEM

I considered Zach Randolph (as I still did not have a PF), and Raja Bell for this pick. I really dislike Randolph's attitude and other than points and rebounds he contributes very little. I'm a little worried about whether Amare's return will negatively impact Raja. Miller has not yet played in the preseason as he has had surgery on both great toenails (one week apart), but apparently he should be ready to play be the time the season starts. I'm really hoping this is the case as I'm counting on Miller to significantly increase his production while Gasol is out (the extra shot attempts have to go somewhere and Miller is able to create his own shot). I'm hoping for 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 3PTM, 1 steal and .5 blocks per game and that Miller continues to shoot at 46-50% from the field (his averages the last 2 years) and 80% from the FT line.
92Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:10
for lionprideguy
7.11 Zach Randolph F POR
The entire Portland team can't be this bad, right? 82 picks and not a single Trailblazer, but somebody on this team has to put up some numbers. With 20 players drafted between my selections each time, I don't start really narrowing down a list until it gets 8-10 selections away because it would be too much of a waste. This was one of those rare times where one of the guys I started to zero in on by the middle of the round survived to fall to me at my pick (the other I wanted here was TJ Ford, and I would have taken him first). Normally you'd think this was reason to celebrate, but since it's so rare it actually freaks me out more and I start searching to find out what is wrong that I didn't know about. And with a charactor like Randolph, there is plenty that can be wrong.

My rationale in the end was that, again, somebody was going to need to produce for Portland. Zach was a 5th rounder for most leagues last year and had an off year, but I think it was because it was his first back from microfracture surgery. We've seen that most of the players who try to return from this still aren't really all the way back their first year. While certainly a head case, he's been consistant for producing while he's on the court. 18-20ppg and 8-10 rpg the last three years is solid considering we're almost into the 8th round. Reports are that he is in better shape this year and stronger on his knee than last year, almost back to pre-surgery. I'm conting on that to bounce back from his sliding numbers the last two years and more toward the 48-51% FG from a few years ago than the 44% the last two years. He doesn't get much in the steals/blocks categories, but has shown this preseason a bit more versatility and really solid numbers, and anything gained there would be a bonus. At this point in the draft you almost have to start accepting some imperfections in your players and holes in their games. Randolph I believe can be a player who still adds positives who may not help much in some categories, but doesn't hurt me at all. I might have taken TJ Ford here instead if he were available, but I have to still be pretty excited to get Zach this late.

93Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:10
for Footwedge
7.12 Brandon Roy G POR

I just felt like Roy would produce a good balance and get plenty of minutes. My feeling also is he can produce his own opportunities since POR will be looking for a 2nd option to Zach.

8.01 Raja Bell G PHO

Loads of theys and good shooting pct. Not expecting anything more. I was also feeling I could wait till next round to get some front line players.
94Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for lionprideguy
8.02 Steve Francis G NYK
It's hard to believe that just 12 months ago, Francis was a second-round pick and legit cornerstone guy for many roto teams. Wow, how quickly things can change. This is a pick where there might be no middle ground - either he continues to be terrible and it's nearly a waste, or it's a huge steal, and it can go either way.

Here's my theory: Isiah Thomas is known to be under a lot of pressure to prove himself this year, given only one season to turn things around. He was a short, scoring All-NBA Guard. So when his feet are to the fire and career on the line, he's going to go with what he knows - scoring guards like Marbury and Francis, and at least go down gunning with them. Right or not, I see him playing Francis a lot, and giving a lot more free reign than Larry Brown did, just to prove he didn't screw up by trading for him. I'm not expecting Francis' career numbers of 20 points, 5 reb, 6 assists. I also don't think that he's many times worse than Marbury, though, who was taken 4 full rounds earlier. I can see Francis getting less points, but more assists and rebounds then Stephon and still getting steals and a decent FT%. If Isiah is committed to giving his Marbury/Francis backcourt big minutes like he's claiming, Francis is well rounded enough to make for a decent 8th round pick. And if it all blows up in Thomas' face and Francis or Marbury get traded midseason to a disappointing team, all the better when they become the main show again.

I still am searching for another PG but felt it was too early for Claxton, Stoudamire, or even Cassell since his minutes are up in the air. It's the tough part waiting 20 players between picks, I could either grab one now too early, or expect they'd all be gone when it got back to me. I felt like Francis had a better chance for contributing across the board this year than either of those three, so I gave up on the PGs again and thought that I had an outside chance Damon Stoudamire would be there for an automatic pick at 9.11 for me (nope).

95Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for Florian
8.03 Darko Milicic C ORL

I would have taken Raja Bell had he made it back to this pick. So I focused on my team weakness: blocks. I needed a PF (or a C moving Bosh to PF). I considered Shaq, Chandler and Darko. I didn't want Shaq because of the FT% issues and I'm not sure how many games he'll actually play this year (I'm guessing 50). I didn't pick Chandler because he's has multiple chances in Chicago and done absolutely nothing with them, so I don't really expect an improvement this year either.

Darko had 30 games to prove himself last year and he took advantage of them. In only 20 minutes per game he averaged 2.1 blocks, 7.6 points and 4.1 rebounds on 50% shooting. I am hoping/expecting he will average closer to 30 minutes per game this year. If he manages to keep up his production per minute (always a big if in these situations) he would produce about 250 blocks this year. That would fix my team blocks issue. I expect he'll average 11 points, 6 rebounds, 2.5 blocks (hoping for about 200 blocks), 2.5 assists (he's averaged 3.7 in the preseason and has a reputation of being a good passer). Although as Guru stated in one of his posts at this point in the draft rationales become rationalizations.
96Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:11
for Coldwater Coyotes
8.04 Eddy Curry C NYK
By far my worst pick to date but who else is out there? Swish City later make a good case for Chandler but I am not totally convinced. It was a big mistake not to have picked up a C in round 6. A second C should help with blocks but Curry will be lucky to average more than 0.7 per game.

On the positive side... maybe Isiah Thomas can turn the Knicks around and Marberry will pass the ball. If Curry could get to 16 pts a game and 6.5 rebounds then this pick wouldn't be so bad.

97Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 18:12
8.05 Andres Nocioni, F, Chi
I struggled a lot with this pick. I’d been thinking of another point guard, but I just couldn’t get comfortable with any who seemed viable at this point. I considered Marvin Williams, and almost went there. I considered Drew Gooden, and I’m not quite sure why I decided to pass – or at least wait. I almost took Szczerbiak, but his knee still raises at least a yellow flag. I’m sure I looked at about a dozen possibilities, and Nocioni may have survived because I could find the reason to rule him out.

He finished the season strong last year, with post-ASB averages of 15 pts and 7.8 reb, shooting almost 48% from the field while still draining 1.1 treys per game. As long as he gets his minutes, he should keep me in the game. I had him on a different fantasy team last year, and there were stretches when he was quite productive. There were other stretches as well. But I guess that comes with the territory at this stage of the draft.

And I now feel like I’m turning the corner from rationales to rationalizations.

98Mike D
      Leader
      ID: 041831612
      Fri, Oct 20, 2006, 22:50
8.06 Zaza Pachulia, F/C, Atl

It’s been a long wait since my last pick, and lots of guys I wanted have been scooped up. I identified 5 guys I was interested in here, and then narrowed it down to Dunleavy and Zaza. I don’t technically have a center yet since Howard is not eligible. I didn’t want to reach too much to grab one either. I might have taken Zaza a touch early, but at the rate centers have flown off the board, I question if he would have made it back to me.

He’s more like a PF than a C, and in fact qualifies at both. Negatives are a lower than center-like FG% and lack of blocks. Positives are better than center-like FT%, solid rebounding, and 2nd in the league last year for steals by a center. I need to worry about FT% and that knocked Chandler out. And I’ve never had a guy named Zaza on my team.
99Uptown Bombers
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 00:13
8.07 Danny Granger, F, IND

My least favorite pick up to date. True story: I’ve been on four hours sleep for about a week, thanks to my work schedule and trying to follow the Mets in the playoffs. After the Met game that night I went about the business of setting up the queue for the next day. This time I needed three names. Andres Nocioni was the first player I talked myself into. I stared and research for an hour, drifting in and out of sleep but nobody else seemed like a good fit for my team. Finally I woke up at 1:30 am, asleep at my computer, hand on mouse, Kafenatid queue management screen up, foot propped on my desk. My roommate, who heard the loud snoring over the sound of his earphones, came to rescue me, otherwise who knows how long I would have been there. My left leg felt like it had been drained of all its blood. I was desperate for the few hours of sleep ahead of me (I had to be up at 5am), but I had no idea who else to add to the queue. So I groggily looked at my cheat sheets and plugged in the first two names (in no particular order) I could remember considering before my doze, hoping against hope I would get Nocioni. I didn’t.

Granger has potential to help in many categories, especially with increased playing time. I like his numbers last year when he started and got 30 min/G, but I am not sure that is going to happen. Looking at the other drafts, it seems likely that I could have waited and still gotten him in round 9. For the record, the third player on my queue was Tyson Chandler, who was taken shortly thereafter. In retrospect, I would have rather had Chandler. My issue with Granger is not his potential production, but rather at this point I would have rather gone after particular categories rather than Granger, who might help me a little in all the cats. Eh, anyways, I’ll hope he gets the playing time and blossoms into the player everyone thinks he could be.
100skinneej
      Leader
      ID: 040625911
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 00:19
8.08 Shaquille O’Neal, C, MIA

How did this happen? Why is he still available? Would somebody please just take him so I don’t have to agonize over it. Aaargh. After Nocioni was taken off my queue with two spots to go, the two players left above Shaq were Cassell and Wally. Other than Chandler, I had had my eye on Gooden as well. I nearly took him, but even after a good preseason, I just don’t think there is enough that he contributes that helps my team other than rebs. Cassell would have been the easier choice since I could grab a third pg and wait for another big man. However, looking at the 4 teams that get to pick 8 times before my next pick, two need centers. I was certain neither Shaq nor Tyson would make it back to me.

I have not drafted or owned Shaq in a fantasy league since Duncan’s rookie year. I remember it well, because I drafted Shaq #1 overall in an ESPN league, and then traded him before the season started for Duncan and Gary Payton. It worked out well as TD was a much better rookie than many thought and getting Payton, who was a top tier pg at that time, helped me to the league title. Even though there were times that I considered Shaq since, his poor FT% always kept me from drafting him. I never am in favor of tanking a category right off the bat, and that is what it feels like when you take him.

So here we are…9 years later…and I am faced with taking him in the 8th round of a draft. The 8th Round! Several teams have taken centers the last few rounds and completely avoided him. I mean, even Easy Eddy and ZaZa were taken ahead of him. Is this Bizarro world? Sure he’s getting older, his stats are trending down, and he makes Ben Wallace look like Reggie Miller at the line, but he’s still the Big Diesel or Aristotle or whatever he’s going by these days. I passed on him in round 7 fully expecting someone to take him off my hands before my next pick. But no, you unselfish bastards let him slide 12 more picks just so I would be forced to take him. Just think, you would have saved me and the Euros a lot of heartache if someone would have stepped up earlier.

Well, the final decision came down to how badly would he affect my FT%. All the positive’s were there: the solid pts, rebs, blocks and super high FG% - all things my team was after. However, can he play 60 games? What about 50? Does he have as much drive left after bringing Miami the ring last year? After projecting out each of my player’s FT makes/attempts for this year and factoring in his atrocious numbers, it didn’t have as much affect as I feared. Sure he brought my avg down 6 pts, but I was already well ahead in that category. Afterwards I project that I am 9th overall currently. Plus, I draft a few more high pct shooters, and just maybe I can pull this thing off. Wow! I am genius! Watch out league! …end Bizarro transmission.
101Swish City
      Dude
      ID: 0931275
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 08:02
8.09 Tyson Chandler, C, NOR

I actually can't remember the last time i was on tenterhooks as much about a draft pick than i was with this one. After taking Wilcox in the last round, i was absolutely surefire certain that there was no way in hell Chandler would come back round to us. I guess his ankle issues and mediocre performance in the few preseason games he has played dropped him down a lot of lists. Of course, Chandler would have been a lock at this spot if it wasn't for that 8th round irritant Shaquille O'Neal and his lousy FT% still being available with 1 pick to go.

The more and more we looked at our squad as Diesel came closer to us, the more we thought the Shaq thing could actually work. The FT% is a downer, sure, but his FTA was down to 8 last year, and if you take into account he'll only play 60 games or so, then effectively an 82 game season from Michael Redd would cancel out Shaq's putrid, yet decreasingly devastating performance at the line. And there no denying, those blocks, boards, and that tremendous FG% would help our team in all the right areas.

Alas, it was not to be. Skinneej was clearly thinking exactly the same things we were, and to be honest his team looks very well equipped to absorb the FT% damage. Could be a monster pick for him as long as Shaq stays healthy.

Anyway, back to reality, and Tyson Chandler. He's no Shaq (well, maybe Shaq-lite), but we're hoping Chandler turns the corner in NOR. With Chris Paul giving him easy hoops, aligned with the defensive capabilities we all know he has (10+ boards, 2 blocks not out of reach), all Tyson needs is some more shots to make his high FG% more relevant. We're hoping he gets those, and with no true backup, is ready for a career year doing the dirty work in the shadows of Paul and Peja.
102MikeV
      SuperDude
      ID: 25924115
      Sat, Oct 21, 2006, 12:04
8.10 Sam Cassell, PG, LAC
PGs are all but gone and I had Sam at the top of my queue since Lion took Steve Francis. Sam's getting pretty old but the Clips think enough of him to give out a big 2 year contract. I'd love to get 6 assists and 15 points a game and a steal every once in a while.
103RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sun, Oct 22, 2006, 01:59
for hoopsklyce:
8.11 Speedy Claxton, PG, ATL
I read reports that Claxton might actually be back during the preseason. While I expect him to go out again at some point I took a chance that he will be at some point during the season providing assists and steals. My team was light on point guards at this point. With league rule of creating an injury spot it made taking claxton a little easier.
104RecycledSpinalFluid
      Dude
      ID: 204401122
      Sun, Oct 22, 2006, 02:07
8.12 Bonzi Wells, G, HOU

Shoulda waited on this, shoulda waited on this, shoulda waited on this. Had Drew Gooden all plugged in and ready to go, but just couldn't accept 3 players on the same team, and Gooden's low block total from a PF slot. So...I go with a player I absolutely detest? No morals in Fantasy hoops, gotta love it.

What I'm thinking is "contract year". Yes, he signed a 2 year deal, way under market, but the second year is dirt cheap and player voidable. Two things can happen here...he can ball to his selfish hearts content or he can gripe, moan and underachieve. A smart man would go with option A. Unfortunately, as his past has shown, Bonzi is a few fries short of a happy meal. Lets hope money is a strong enough driving force.

Now, what do I expect out of this pick? I'd settle for his career averages of 13, 5, 2 with 1.4 steals. Unfortunately that also means about 68-70 games.

Oh happy happy joy joy...play with fire you get burned...as I type this up, I read he is likely to miss opening game(s) for "personal reasons"...ok this pick is in the crapper already. You'd think I would have learned from '04...
105Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Oct 23, 2006, 10:27
continue for rounds 9-15
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Basketball Forum

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread




Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour22
Last 24 hours22
Last 7 days55
Last 30 days1211
Since Mar 1, 200765652769