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0 Subject: NBA Stock Exchange (RotoHog)

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 11:30

This has been mentioned briefly in some of the RotoHogo threads for other sports, but deserves its own discussion here.

NBA.com has partnered with RotoHog to run its "salary cap" fantasy game. In previous years, TSN has been NBA.com's salary cap provider (although I don't recall if they did so last year).

Here is the link to the game site:
http://nbase.nba.com/group/main/home

There are many similarities with the baseball and football versions of RotoHog, but also some significant differences. Perhaps the biggest difference is the modest prize structure - but let me defer on that until later. There are also some contraints on player trading, including a requirement to keep any starting player on your roster for at least 2 days following his first start (watch out if a newly acquired player gets injured in his first game!), and a sliding scale of transaction fees to make it more expensive for wealthier teams to trade (i.e., a form of luxury tax, I suppose).

For those unfammiliar with the RotoHog model, let me toss out a few key distinctions vs. the TSN model:
1. Prices move continuously (subject to an overnight market moratorium).
2. Prices have a bid-ask spread, so that the "buy price" for any player is always somewhat higher than the "sell price". There are also transaction fees associated with each buy and sell.
3. There is an 82 game limit for each position slot. In the TSN game, schedule intensity is always a key factor. In this game, there is no inherent advantage to getting players with dense schedules - except in the case of a monthly contest.

Now, the prizes. One of the big attractions for the other RotoHog games has been the lure of a top prize of $100,000, along with other significant payouts for top finishers.

Not so this time. In fact, the TSN Ultimate Hoops prize structure is probably more generous!

First, everyone will be entered in a Global League. It's not clear to me that there is any prize for winning the Global League, other than "earning the title of the NBA Stock Exchange Fantasy Basketball Champion." LOL!

Second, there will be some number of Celebrity Leagues. I haven't figured out how many there are, and who the celebrites are, although I think they will be retired NBA players. Winning a celebrity league earns a $1000 gift certificate to the NBA store, plus a phone call from that league's celebrity, plus two tickets to an NBA game in 2008-09.

There will also be monthly prizes, and they may be more attractive to many than the overall prizes. That's significant, because the optimal strategy for a monthly prize may differ from that for a full season prize, since you will want to concentrate game exposures during that month. For each of the five full months (Nov-March), the top prize is a Sony PS3 video game system plus two NBA video games. There are also 9 runner-up prizes each month, which is an NBA video game (presumably for the Sony PS3 platform).

So, if you are more interested in winning a PS3, you might want to focus your energies on some particular month - which has the additional advantage of not consuming the entire season, plus giving you a fresh start each month.

I'm going to shut up now. Feel free to chime in, and please correct anything that you think I've stated incorrectly. I'll confess that I haven't studied this too closely.

Oh, and I'll probably include stats for this game in the sortable stats and the individual player pages, assuming there is interest. The schedule outlook features in the sortables will be especially useful for those vying for a monthly prize.
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112Crunch Bunch
      ID: 3136114
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 11:55
8 games, 236 points. Average of 29.5 points

RV of $395
113Alex
      ID: 8718115
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:01
I thought I remembered seeing some kind of games played limit per week (possibly just impacting the monthly contests). Was I just imagining that? I can't seem to find it anywhere in the rules now.
114GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:04
Alex,
I think what you are thinking about is a RotoHog discussion on something else.

367.79 points
14 gp
26.27 point/game

$349.66

Need to relook things.

Cliff
115Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:06
Also tracking on a daily basis to monitor average points per game. Currently only have 7 games and 268.56 points for a 38.36 pts/game average. I'm being very picky so far, but can't let my games played average be too low.

I need to be more active in making money. Only $407. It's just hard to make those $2 (in Tx fees) leaps of faith on 5 minutes (or less!) of market data at 5:00am.
116Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:28
I'm only at $386, and have pretty much sworn off chasing the cheapie of the day - mostly because I want to use as much of my wealth as possible in my starting lineup, but partly because I don't want to be tethered to the computer all day in case the tide turns.

In fact, after drafting nine $1 players and buying one more cheapie at the opening bell on Sunday, I haven't speculated at all. My cheapest buy since then has been Kirilenko, at just under $40, and all of my other purchases have cost more than $50. And I've only made ten buys since Sunday morning.

I still think I'll be able to accumulate sufficient value to accomplish my objectives, even with this limited trading style.
117GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:35
Of the 9 on my roster right now:

1 was bought 10/31
6 were boght 10/29
2 were drafted

Might have to change my thought process at some time, but am going to stick this out for right now.

Cliff
118Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:46
I'm at 7 games and 31.9 points per game.
$433 (with $7 of fees yet to pay today)

I'm not sure what to think of a game where the 3rd highest money maker of the day so far retired on 9/26, and is now coaching Arkansas Baptist College. (In full disclosure, I made a net 12 cents on him before I was too embarrassed ... and sold).

The very first guy I drafted (Al Horford) is still on the team. All the other draftees were gone by last Wendnesday.
119Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 12:59
I have had 66 players on my team thus far.

Drafted 9
on 10-28 - bought 8. Sold 5. Made $61.48.
On 10-29 - bought 13. Sold 17. Made $0.96.
On 10-30 - bought 7. Sold 9. Made $24.71
On 10-31 - bought 8. Sold 11. Made $1.98
On 11-1 - bought 12. Sold 8. Made $34.30
Today - bought 8. Sold 4. Making $11.28 before selling fees
120Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 13:03
I'd guess that the Corliss Williamson run-up is a combo of collusion and rampant lemming behavior.

A few people got together to see if they could spark a run. As Tosh exemplifies, it worked.
121Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 14:35
14 games, 379.81 points avg 27.12
$392.70
I've gone down about 7 dollars today...

Like GoatLocker, I can't seem to part with some of my team:
4 From the 27th
2 From the 28th
1 From the 29th
1 From the 31st
2 From the 1st

--Addicted--
122GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 16:06
I set a strategy a few days ago, and I'm really kind of stuck with riding it out for right now.

I will be able to drop back and re-evaluate Sun / Mon.

Then I will go from there.

Cliff
123Headless Gunners
      ID: 19282419
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 16:27
Salary $395.47
10 games 373.27 points 37.3 avg
Strategy - Only studs
Gotta set up in advance to beat the lock
back to back like Suns last 2 days a big help
124Tothreeball
      ID: 25109117
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 17:42
$411.58
332.41 points in 9 games played.

Not chasing the cheapies daily, but have a few players I would consider undervalued on my bench. When they have a decent game, and their price runs, which I believe they eventually will, I'll sell.
125Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Nov 02, 2007, 18:26
Also posted in the RotoHog baseball thread, regarding baseball Celebrity League autographed prizes:

FYI - I emailed RotoHog and was assured that they are working on the Celebrity League autographed prizes. I'll get an ETA next week....but they told me to rest assured that everyone that earned a prize will receive it and they asked for a little patience.

I'll stay on 'em.
126GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sat, Nov 03, 2007, 02:13
Kelenna Azubuike $6.31 46.41 points drafted for $1.00

Not a bad hold.

Cliff
127Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Sat, Nov 03, 2007, 16:14
Well, I hope that Mike James and Kelenna Azubuike make at least 50 more cents each today. I was not able to sell them before I hit the $450 barrier.

Transaction fees now $3 for me. I need to be extra selective on my purchases.
128Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Sat, Nov 03, 2007, 18:39
If you're looking for sympathy, you can buzz off bro! lol

Ozzabocka (as Dave R calls "Azubuike" - lol) did earn me a right nice return so far today as one of the few "cheapies of the day" I have invested in lately.
129Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Tue, Nov 06, 2007, 19:00
Update:

21 games, 39.43 average. $430 RV.
130Alex
      ID: 8718115
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 10:59
I'm up to $472 RV, but am not using my games at all - targeting the December monthly contest. Its brutal making money once the $1.50 transaction fee kicks in at $450 RV.
131Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 11:35
30 games, 34.6 average.

I've had a few disappointments - including 4 sub-20 games (from Duncan, Nash, Baron, and Kiri). I probably shouldn't have used Kiri.

I am up to around $425.

FWIW, if you were to be exactly on pace for GP, you'd have 32 games through last night. That takes into account not only calendar days, but also the number of NBA games scheduled each day.

132Dave R
      SuperDude
      ID: 3010361110
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 11:42
30 Games 35.17 average

$405 ( I'm poor ). Missed the boat on Dunleavy who is up nearly $12 today, but I don't feel. inclined to chase all these daily price gainers
133Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 12:12
Up to 27 games now and with Paul and LeBron going off, bumped my average to 40.93. I recommend you all just give up now and not waste your time ;-)

I have exactly 3 games played at every position, and I knew I was behind pace....too conservative early on and was chasing too many cheapie trains. I'm at $437.42 this morning but only have $3.05 in the bank with everything else invested in starting players.....but LeBron has been worth every penny! But it definitely constricts me in chasing the stock of the day. Thankfully prudent stud management has allowed me to continue to have my portfolio appreciate.....just nowhere near Tosh or Alex levels :)
134tothreeball
      Dude
      ID: 09118139
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 13:56
28 games, 36.41 pt/game average

I'm carrying several bad games as well including Amare's 7 pointer. Team Value is $440.56

Following Guru's comments in post 108, I was targeting 35 pts/game for each roster spot. With the roster values higher than I expected, I suspect that closer to 40 pts/game may be necessary to be in the chase at the end.
135Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 14:35
26 games. 35.6 average (includes klunkers from Iguodala (5.14), Kirilenko (14.76) and Baron Davis (18.36)).

$474 right now (with $3 of sells to go today). My high is $480.

The West Coast 5am market opening is just BRUTAL. If I'm not logged on time, I lose big. I slept through the alarm this morning, and didn't log on until 5:05. By that time, Yao Ming (my only sell) had lost $1.50, while gainers Dunleavy and Szczerbiak had already gone up more than $3.50 a piece. I totally missed the boat on Stojakovic today. By the time I was able to log back on at 10am, Dunleavy had already hit his high, and had dropped $3. So my net gain on Dunleavy today was $4.37 ... when I could have made $9-$10.

I almost bought Dunleavy last night, but find that my speculative buys only work out about 1/2 the time. With the $3 service charge, I should just be up at 5am, and buy the guys that rise early. Last night's sucky speculative buys are Jeff McInnis (gonna' lose $2 -$2.25), and Steve Blake (lost $2.44). Yesterday's speculative purchase was JR Smith (lost 1.93).

But this is a really cool game. I decided to not play SportingNews this year, and am very happy with the decision thus far.
136Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 17:22
Unless the NBA undergoes a widespread stat stuffing year, there's no way that teams will be able to sustain 40/game. Last year, Garnett was the only player to exceed that level. So to maintain a team average at that level, you'd have to do some very judicious cherry picking from day-to-day.

I know that there are currently 9 players with averages of 40 or better. That seems unlikely to persist. And there are still only 17 players who are averaging 35 or better.

Last year, if you owned the top 9 players in pts/game for the entire season, and add in enough of the 10-ranked player to fill up the GP limit, you would have had an average of 38/game. So even that seems unrealistically high over the course of an entire season.
137tothreeball
      Dude
      ID: 09118139
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 18:35
Good point on the target averages. Unlike TSN where the weekly trade limit discourages game by game trading, here depending on roster values, game by game trading based on opponent may allow a mananger to pick players up for shorter terms depending on their "bank" and the effect of the transactions fees. I'm probably over thinking this, but that's the fun of it.
138Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 18:50
lol I have no delusions of grandure that tell me I will continue to average 40/g, but it's a good start. My worst outings have been a Kidd clunker (which he followed up with a 3D) and one other sub-25 point game. Otherwise I have been blessed by plenty of 35's and several very big games.

I have not gotten to the point (yet) of analyzing particular matchups, but I assume I will as RV rises and I have the opportunity to be even pickier. Right now getting these 4 in 5's from studs to get up to pace is more important than seeking out a premium matchup.

I still think the original 35/g (ish) is the right number.
139Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 22:06
Just an FYI,
I noticed that Rotohog / NBASE Trading Floor has plus signs on injured players now.
So keep an eye out for the bear market.

--Addicted--
140Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 22:19
Just check the League standings:
I'm 93rd for November, and 154 for Global.

I can't tell what Species is, but I'm sure he's higher???

--Addicted--
141Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Nov 07, 2007, 22:45
Addicted - nope. You'll see me plain as day (i.e. - no clandestine team name) on there when I move up. I am a little low on games so that's why you don't see me.
142Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Thu, Nov 08, 2007, 06:19
42 games, 34.03 avg, +5 on position usage...
$437.54, up $40 since Monday.

One (maybe two) players starting today.

--Addicted--
143Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Thu, Nov 08, 2007, 18:06
I really wish that I bought Al Harrington before I went back to sleep this morning. Up $13.19 today, and he keeps going up ... despite having the next five days off.
144Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Thu, Nov 08, 2007, 19:03
Al just made more than a dollar in under one hour.
Currently at up $14.24 for the day.
This is crazy.


--Addicted--

145Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Nov 09, 2007, 12:12
Looks like a lot of the people who bought Harrington yesterday didn't start him. Those who did start him are getting burned today.
146Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Sat, Nov 10, 2007, 16:43
It's definitely getting tougher to make any money. Only 5 players made more than $3 yesterday, and only 6 players today.
147 cookie
      ID: 531025187
      Sun, Nov 18, 2007, 08:26
Hey if i put a player in my team at say gaurd for example and he has a game that day but doesnt play in the game (e.g chris paul last night) does that count as a game used???
148GoatLocker
      Sustainer
      ID: 060151121
      Sun, Nov 18, 2007, 12:05
If I remember right from baseball, it shouldn't count as a game used.

Not sure yet with BB.

Cliff
149tothreeball
      Dude
      ID: 09118139
      Sun, Nov 18, 2007, 14:13
147 - I had Paul in my starting lineup last night and it didn't count as a game played for my team.
150Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 11:56
Update time boys. I took a hit last night with Kobe and Baron.

75 games
2907.42 points
38.7656 average
Still muddling in RV mediocrity: $451.85
151Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:14
I just surveyed the top 100 teams in the global standings and in each of the two celebrity leagues. Only 6 teams have averaged at least 35 pts/game so far, and all are behind pace:

Endangered Species 38.8 -11 (i.e., avg. is 38.8, 11 games behind pace)
Freakin's Fools 38.2 -6
Aristotle 36.5 -6
We Are Borg 36.2 -9
Suns#1 35.3 -8
Dynamo Moscow 35.0 -7

The best team that is not behind pace is Oszirules, who is exactly on pace (86 games) with an average of 34.8.
152Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:17
As far as I know, there is no way to see the RV of other teams. I'm currently at $444. I got over $450 once briefly, but then sailed backward for a few days. I've pretty much abandoned "day trading", after getting burned a few times.

I think $450 will be a tough hurdle to exceed, as the fees are really difficult to overcome.
153Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:23
86 games
2,934.89 points
34.12 average
$463.64

Funny thing is I just broke 452.00 Sat PM.
Sunday AM, I worried about the TRX fee, but sold 3 players and bought 4 players and I'm up to $463.64 today.

I'm trying to cut back on games. But most of my overages are in the C/FC and PG slots.

--Addicted--

154Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:23
BTW, of the universe of teams I sampled (243 total teams, so there must be 43 teams in the global top 100 who are not in either celebrity league), only 31 are averaging 30 pts/g or better, broken down as follows:

6 teams at 35 pts/g or better
3 teams at 34-34.99 pts/g
3 teams at 33-33.99 pts/g
5 teams at 32-32.99 pts/g
4 teams at 31-31.99 pts/g
10 teams at 30-30.99 pts/g
155Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:27
Addicted, I'm not seeing your team, so I assume you aren't in either of the celebrity leagues?
156Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:30
I too have abandoned day trading - just don't have the stomach for it, and the 5:00am wake up call isn't fun either. Props to Tosh for continuing to have the focus to do so - at least more often than I do.

With schedule-based trade management (I guess those years of TSN have been good for something) I am okay at "treading water" at this $440-ish level, as I buy studs with good schedules and they will generally appreciate sufficiently to pay for the transaction fees.

I'll be taking advantage of some upcoming schedules to build up some games and narrow the game gap. I'm sure I'll fall closer to the 36 point range as I do this with some non-studs (albeit guys that are playing very well) on a purely temporary basis.
157tothreeball
      Dude
      ID: 09118139
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:49
69 games (17 behind pace)
2,532.60 points
36.7 ppg
$471.97

With the likes of Kobe, Baron, Yao and even Lebron and KG having a subpar game here and there, my PPG has dropped down from over 38 recently. Still trying to target 35 ppg, but who knows. With a decent team value, I'll eventually be able to catch up on the pace, although I may be getting further behind than I should.

It seems many have abandoned the day trading, leaving many of the cheapie players with little value or upside. Aside from 8am swapping of the studs of the day, the Trading Floor frenzy seems to have died down some.
158Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 13:49
#154,
Nope, just global league (109).

--Addicted--
159Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 14:09
#156,
No more day trading, just calculated buys...
I picked up S. Jackson like 5 days before he started...
I'm not rotating studs daily. I'm trying to keep them through a good schedule, and maybe selling them a day early (i.e. sold Boozer yesterday).
I'm still looking at value players in the $15-$30 range, but they have to give me at least 1pt/$ or who have had a couple of good games.
I haven't been picking up the top studs (Garnett and James), rather trying to get the players in the low $60's and $70's. But yesterday I had extra money and LBJ wasn't sold out, so I bought early.

--Addicted--

160Tosh
      Leader
      ID: 057721710
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 15:04
69 games
36.9 ppg
$493 (made $20.69 yesterday)

I started Biedrins & B. Davis yesterday, and that was only the 2nd and 3nd times a sub-$60 player made my starting lineup. I also caught Kobe and KG's poor games yesterday.

I only get up at 5am on the mornings that I need to sell someone. Otherwise, I have also mostly abandoned day-trading. It's much harder to know when a player will cover his fees. Fortunately, I had to sell Chris Paul yesterday, so I was able to buy into Turkoglu and Harrington.

I hit $473 on 11/8, and was still at $473 at the start of yesterday (peaked at $482 on 11/11). Looking at my non-stud day-trades since 11/8 I have made money on 8 players, and lost money on 9 players.

It's gonna' be fun catching up in games and going for a monthly prize.
161Addicted
      Dude
      ID: 4611592518
      Mon, Nov 19, 2007, 16:08
Turkoglu really surprised me yesterday.
I expected increases in ORL and GSW players,
but I didn't see a $14.00 increase for Turkoglu!!!

That is the reason I've stopped day trading.
I always pick the wrong horse to ride.

Up to 466.35 in 2.5 hours.
It'll level out tomorrow.

--Addicted--
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