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Subject: Dirty Dozen Experts Roto League
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Oct 09, 08:56
I've been invited to participate in an "experts" fantasy basketball league this year. There are 12 managers in this league, which is being organized by fantasyref.com. Here's the slate of managers, along with their affiliation:
Michael Fabiano - CBS Sportsline
David Klyce - Hoopsklyce.com
Chris Liss - RotoWire
Mark Bond - Jackpot Sports
David Gonos - Fantasyef
Adam Slotnick - Jackpot Sports
Brian Doolittle - TSN
Timothy Ludwig - Fantasyref
Corey Roberts - Stats.com
Matt Cummings - Fantasyref
Dave Hall - RotoGuru.com
Marlon McRae - CBS Sportsline
The league will use standard roto scoring with 8 traditional categories: points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers, FG%, and FT%.
The (email) draft begins today, and managers select in the order listed above, with even numbered rounds using the reverse order. There will be 13 rounds in the draft, and each team must select 5 guards, 5 forwards, and 3 centers (positions to be determined based on NBA.com). During the season, 10 players will be active each week, configured 4-4-2.
Draft results will be posted after each round at fantasyref.com (I'll post the actual link for this when I find out), along with a short analysis for each pick.
This draft should be an interesting preseason exercise, and I thought I'd use this forum to track the draft as we go along, and also to solicit your feedback.
Here are the first two picks:
1 - Shaquille O'Neal (Fabiano)
2 - Kobe Bryant (Klyce)
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| 93 | Shelby-villian
ID: 261146232
Fri, Oct 12, 13:36
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Robinson is a gimp anyway. If you have
Robinson, Brad Miller, and a backup center,
that means you would be starting Miller and
your backup center (regardless of scheduling)
for a couple weeks because the Admiral will
have back problems for sure. I would take
Wallace for his robustness as injuries are a
killer in this league.
A really good 3rd center would be Kevin Willis
as Lafrentz will be playing PF for a couple
months. But thats getting ahead of ourselves...
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| 94 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 13:40
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Looking at the other "experts" draft at the fantasyref site - which uses a different scoring system, so it isn't necessarily relevant - Ben Wallace was the 34th overall pick (immed. after Odom and before Ratliff).
D. Rob was the 31st pick.
Marshall and Martin weren't chosen until the 6th round.
Hmmm...
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| 95 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 15:00
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33 - David Robinson (Roberts)
Only one more pick before me. He has Pierce and Walker as his first two, so he could still go in about any direction.
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| 96 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 15:38
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If Odom disappears, and assuming Wallace becomes my center choice, then a refocus on scoring probably wouldn't hurt - at least excluding 3 point scoring.
The best outstanding players who offer some scoring punch include Stojakovich, Rose, Finley, Mashburn, Dickerson, and Terry. Stoj probably has too much of his value tied up in 3 point shooting, but the others offer some reasonable balance.
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| 97 | DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Fri, Oct 12, 15:50
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Guru - Why Wallace over Jermaine?
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| 98 | tduncan
ID: 47616279
Fri, Oct 12, 15:55
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because jarmane was allready picked...
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| 99 | rockafellerskank
Donor
ID: 4911539
Fri, Oct 12, 15:55
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J.O was selected @ #29, DR Stars.
rfs
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| 100 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 16:15
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Round 3
1. Fabiano - Antawn Jamison
2. Klyce - Raef LaFrentz
3. Liss - Stephon Marbury
4. Bond - Glenn Robinson
5. Gonos - Jermaine O'Neal
6. Slotnick - Shareef Abdur-Rahim
7. Doolittle - Theo Ratliff
8. Ludwig - Marcus Camby
9. Roberts - David Robinson
10. Cummings -
11. Hall -
12. McCrae -
Round 2
1. McRae - Mourning
2. Hall - Francis
3. Cummings - Pierce
4. Roberts - Kidd
5. Ludwig - Wallace
6. Doolittle - Jordan
7. Slotnick - Stackhouse
8. Gonos - Marion
9. Bond - Payton
10. Liss - Grant Hill
11. Klyce - Karl Malone
12. Fabiano - Elton Brand
Round 1
1. Fabiano - Shaq
2. Klyce - Bryant
3. Liss - Duncan
4. Bond - Garnett
5. Gonos - Nowitzki
6. Slotnick - Webber
7. Doolittle - McGrady
8. Ludwig - Iverson
9. Roberts - Carter
10. Cummings - Walker
11. Hall - Allen
12. McCrae - Mutombo
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| 101 | E'ville
Leader
ID: 29017810
Fri, Oct 12, 16:40
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Guru. Have you checked ESPN's Player Rater. They use the same 8 catagory system to rate players based on value. It's not perfect but may help.
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| 102 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 19:05
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Yes, I'm very familiar with that rater, as I've been playing in an ESPN Hoops leagues for each of the past three years. My rating model is very similar - which gives me some comfort that it's not too far off base. And at least with my model, I can change the underlying stats to comform with my projections.
Note that Shaq was rated #13 last season.
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| 103 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 12, 20:38
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34 - Antonio Davis (Cummings)
35 - Lamar Odom (Hall)
Wonder of wonders. I didn't expect Odom to survive this long, but it appears that everyone was panicked into choosing a center.
The next guy up has two consecutive picks. But he also has 2 centers already, so I think I can safely defer picking a center for this pick.
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| 104 | The Bandwagon
ID: 46919821
Fri, Oct 12, 20:41
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What a steal Guru, you're team is looking tough!
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| 105 | migdallion
ID: 4394280
Fri, Oct 12, 21:18
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he who takes ben wallace will not be disappointed
though finley, casell, andre miller, and kenyon are solid picks at this stage
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| 106 | johnglad
Donor
ID: 3712010
Fri, Oct 12, 22:41
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Alright you got Odom!! I say Ben Wallace or Finley with the next pick. Wallace will still be around as the other guy won't take another center. Finley though is a stat stuffer if there ever was one. Got to take a center though I would say. I'll check back in on Monday. I am travelling to Indianapolis for the weekend to see the Colts vs. Raiders game. My high school buddy (Marcus Washington) starts at LB for the Colts and he provided some friends and I with great free tix. Should be a blast!
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| 107 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 13, 05:54
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I'll be away all Saturday (visiting my oldest son at Tufts), so I won't be providing draft updates until later tonight. I don't know if the draft site will be updated during the day or not.
Someone has my instructions for the 4th round pick, which should occur this morning. After that, I doubt if I'll have another pick to make until tomorrow.
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| 108 | Guru at Tufts
ID: 429121310
Sat, Oct 13, 10:14
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Just checking in from my son's dorm. McRae took Mashburn and Van Exel. I took Ben Wallace. Next guy took Stojakovich.
Off to lunch...
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| 109 | tduncan
ID: 47616279
Sat, Oct 13, 10:46
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he took van exel with finley (what a drop!), cassel and andre miller still loose? strange pick. IMO even players like jason terry, nash or darrel armstrong will do better then nick.
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| 110 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Oct 13, 21:39
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Here are the picks in Round 4 (one left):
1. McRae - Van Exel
2. Hall - Ben Wallace
3. Cummings - Predrag Stojakovic
4. Roberts - Michael Finley
5. Ludwig - Jalen Rose
6. Doolittle - Andre Miller
7. Slotnick - Brian Grant
8. Gonos - Stockton
9. Bond - Nash
10. Liss - Baron Davis
11. Klyce - Eddie Jones
12. Fabiano -
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| 111 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 12:16
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Round 4
12. Terrell Brandon (Fabiano)
Round 5
1. Sam Cassell (Fabiano)
2. Mike Bibby (Klyce)
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| 112 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 12:38
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Round 5
3. Wally Szczerbiak (Liss)
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| 113 | chuckball
ID: 507352011
Sun, Oct 14x, 13:59
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I thought Bibby and Baron Davis dropped a lot in your draft. Do you not expect them to improve upon last years numbers?
I was projecting about 15pt/4rb/9as/1.5 3pter and 1.5 steals out of Bibby and 15pt/5rb/8as/1 3pter and 2 steals out of Baron. Is that too much to ask out of these two?
Any thought on these two guys and how they'll progress this year.
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| 114 | prefek
ID: 599251413
Sun, Oct 14x, 14:25
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Best available players:
PG: Darrell Armstrong, Larry Hughes, Damon Stoudamire, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock
SG: Reggie Miller, Jason Terry, Cuttino Mobley, Doug Christie, Allan Houston, Latrell Spreewell, Rashard Lewis, Anfernee Hardaway
SF: Anthony Mason, Donyell Marshall, Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc
PF: Antonio McDyess (injured), Danny Fortson, Juwon Howard, Keith Van Horn, Kenyon Martin
C: Vlade Divac, Elden Campbell, Marc Jackson, Shawn Bradley, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Lorenzen Wright
(All IMHO)
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| 115 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 15:21
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Round 5
4. Rashard Lewis (Bond)
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| 116 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 15:49
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Round 5
5. Reggie Miller (Gonos)
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| 117 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 16:44
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Round 5
6. Keith Van Horn (Slotnick)
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| 118 | TaRhEElKiD
ID: 6917619
Sun, Oct 14x, 17:51
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What about Fortson? I'm not sure, but has he been taken? If not...he may be a steal!
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| 119 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 18:08
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Fortson has not been taken.
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| 120 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Oct 14x, 19:10
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Round 5
7. Jason Terry (Doolittle)
I'm up in four more picks.
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| 121 | TaRhEElKiD
ID: 6917619
Sun, Oct 14x, 20:35
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Grab Fortson...if you need a F, I am not really sure about what your team looks like right now.
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| 122 | Belroy
ID: 229301314
Sun, Oct 14x, 20:47
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Chuckball, in response to you thoughts on B. Davis. 15 pts is a bit generous, and don't forget the shameful FG%, but I think your other predictions are quite on. In addition Bibby has too many shooters around him he could potentially lead the league in assists but will only score around 11 ppg.
Guru the obvious choice is K-Mart if he is there, this is his year. If he can escape the injury bug. Do not forget about L Wright if you are looking for boards.. could be top 10 this year.
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| 123 | tduncan
ID: 47616279
Sun, Oct 14x, 21:12
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I think darrel armstrong will be good for you with one of the picks. to balance the wallace FT situation a little bit, and he is a very solid guard any way. with the other pick maybe cuttino mobley will be good for points, 3pts and %s. I wouldn't go with baron davis. he is too unpredictable.
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| 124 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 08:31
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Round 5
8. Darrell Armstrong (Ludwig)
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| 125 | CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Mon, Oct 15, 08:42
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I think I'd jump on Anthony Mason if given the opportunity. He is going to have a lot of weapons around him in a high powered offense. He'll fill all the categories. I had him last year in a FP scoring league and he was one of my most consistant contributors.
Not sure about his FT% but all other categories consider he is a stud. Just ask Lou....
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| 126 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:13
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We don't even know where Mason will be playing this year, do we?
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| 127 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:14
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Round 5
9. Danny Forston (Roberts)
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| 128 | DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Mon, Oct 15, 11:33
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I think Divac is a good pick for this year, specially if CWeb losses significant minutes/games due to injury.
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| 129 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 11:48
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Round 5
10. Juwon Howard (Cummings)
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| 130 | CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Mon, Oct 15, 12:13
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What about Dirk Nowitzki? He is a good rebounder, solid perimeter shooter and good from the line (i think). With a strong supporting cast he could put up an even bigger year then last. Too early? If Mason is too unsure I'd pick Dirk!
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| 131 | Tortfeasor
Donor
ID: 469202110
Mon, Oct 15, 12:17
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EH-
Nowitzki already went at 5 spot. Pretty ridiculously high, I'd say.
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| 132 | coldwater coyotes
Leader
ID: 5965479
Mon, Oct 15, 12:23
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My vote for your next pick is: Kenyon Martin
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| 133 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 12:35
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Round 5
11. Kenyon Martin (Hall)
I made this pick before I saw your post, CC. Honest!)
Martin solidifies my blocks and boards, and also contributes a fair number of steals for a big man. He has reportedly fully healed from his broken leg (even played in the Goodwill games in late summer), and certainly has a lot of upside.
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| 134 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 12:41
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Recap of my roster through 5 rounds:
Ray Allen, Steve Francis, Lamar Odom, Ben Wallace, Kenyon Martin
At this point, I'm looking pretty strong in rebounds, blocks, steals, and 3 pointers. I'm rather average in assists and FG%, and weak in points and FT%. In a league like this, it is unreasonable to expect to be strong in all categories, and I've had pretty good success in prior leagues (using this format) with a pronounced weakness in scoring. It seems like an emphasis on scoring always concedes too much in the other stats, and vice versa. Which is not to say I wouldn't like to improve my scoring. But the tradeoffs need to be attractive, and the best available scorers still don't look like the best available players.
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| 135 | DR Stars
ID: 162592010
Mon, Oct 15, 13:29
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Guru - Do you think Divac was overvalued at this point? why is Martin a better option?
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| 136 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 13:41
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They are statistically pretty close. In fact, using last year's stats, Divac might get a slight nod.
However, Vlade is 33, and Kenyon is 23. Vlade's numbers are unlikely to improve over last year's, unless Webber is really out for an extended period (which is always a possibility for him). Martin's seem likely to improve.
The best thing Vlade has going for him is that he fills a center spot. But I decided I'd rather own the young guy on the rise than the old guy on the decline.
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| 137 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 15, 13:43
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Round 5
12. Larry Hughes (McRae)
Round 6
1. PJ Brown (McRae)
I'm going to start a new thread, as this is getting a bit lengthy. I'll open the new one with a recap of the draft so far.
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| 138 | Polish Pride
ID: 53911418
Mon, Oct 15, 13:47
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Nice team so far guru.
Although I feel like you should go big again, my vote for your next pick is a toss up between David Wesley and Cuttino Mobley.
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| 139 | Belroy
ID: 229301314
Tue, Oct 16, 10:12
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Guru, give us the link to the new thread. Nice pick by the way. Don't forget the ast. you get from odom and it could go up with Brand on the team. Hey canadian pride is Shaq taken yet?
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| 140 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 16, 12:05
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Thread continuation
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| 141 | CanEHdian Pride
ID: 426351415
Tue, Oct 16, 12:18
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Yes belroy, Shaq was taken with the first pick of the first round.
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| 142 | chris
ID: 149552212
Mon, Oct 22, 12:55
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Let me be blunt...i hav challenged the cbs guys in many sports and the word idiot is a compliment. Good luck to all except them
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