Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Apr 05, 2003, 11:12
So, rfs, did I make the moves you expected today?
You surprised me by picking up Garnett. I thought he would be my differentiator. Would you have taken him if Iverson hadn't been a concern?
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67
ukula Donor
ID: 24331113 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 15:42
Guru - I respectfully disagree. I think we have different philosophies that have led us to the same place. Taking a look at Shaq's last 10 games versus Jermaine's last 10 games gives us the following:
Shaq total points - 481 Jermaine total points - 487
Games 40 points or less:
Shaq - 4 Jermaine - 4
Games 60 or more:
Shaq - 1 Jermaine - 2
Pretty even I think you'd agree.
Jermaine has the potential to bang out 60+ points on any given night. I'd rather have four lottery tickets than three at this point in the season. How many guys available on Tuesday have that potential? I might add that I was kind of surprised that you didn't trade in Kobe for two Pierce games or Marion for two Iverson games. In my opinion you were too tentative. You had the trades why not try to go for the jugular? No offense taken, I just think I'm more of a risk-taker than you. We'll see what happens, maybe it'll work, maybe it won't, but if it doesn't I won't beat myself up for not being aggressive.
68
D.Dawkins
ID: 552572320 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 16:03
I also picked up Baby O from Shaq. I looked at it as three Baby O games vs two Shaq games because on Tuesday we get four more trades. I liked the fact that Baby O goes against Olando and Milwaukee where as Shaq is on the road against Portland and home against Denver. Portland plays good D and Denver could be a blow out.
With an 80 point lead in my division, I had 4 choices of how to use my last 2 trades (the second trade is back to the original player after 2 games):
1)Kobe->TMac (Seemed like the move to make, but I read something about resting him down the stretch) 2)Kobe->Kidd (Kidd underperforms whenever I have him, but being tied for the number 1 seed, at least I know he'll play) 3)Shaq->Dirk (My original plan...but I decided I'd rather have Shaq and one of those guards than Dirk and Kobe) 4)Shaq->Jermo (I never really considered this move)
So it came down to TMac or Kidd, and I took Kidd. My competitor went Kobe->TMac, so I'm hoping that the differentiation works in my favor.
My Team: Kidd, Jason Allen, Ray Davis, Ricky Jackson, Stephen Duncan, Tim Garnett, Kevin Marion, Shawn Boozer, Carlos O'Neal, Shaquille Ratliff, Theo
His Team: McGrady, Tracy Marbury, Stephon Davis, Ricky Billups, Chauncey Duncan, Tim Thomas, Kenny Webber, Chris Marion, Shawn Laettner, Christian Nowitzki, Dirk
71
Guru
ID: 330592710 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 16:30
Don't get me wrong - I'm not suggesting that going from Shaq ro Jermaine was a bad decision. It could very easily turn out to be the best one. However, your stated rationale about Shaq having back-to-back off days doesn't really matter, IMHO.
I'll admit I am playing less aggressively this week, and would have made some different moves had I been in chase mode rather than my actual situation. I'm playing it this way for several reasons:
1. By converving trades, I have greater capacity to react to late injuries or potential DNP situations.
2. By allowing others to move first, I have the ability to wait to see who the closest competitor will be before making my final moves.
3. There are plenty of opportunities this week - all the way until Tuesday - to pick up an extra quality game for each trade. By taking Pierce early, I would not have gotten an extra game vs. waiting; I simply would have gotten the extra game sooner. I was even more tempted to swap Marbury into Iverson yesterday. My heart said to do it. My head stopped me. If there is a late non-move that I live to regret, that might be the one.
If there were only one team in the hunt, it would be simpler to fashion a final strategy toward the finish. But with so many teams in contention, I want to allow the situation to shake out a bit before making any final commitments.
That said, this approach might primarily serve to keep others within striking distance, rather than going for the jugular. We've all seen a prevent defense blow up, or a basketball team start to run out the clock permaturely. There have been moments when I feel like that's my biggest risk.
But I think at this stage, the situation does dictate the optimal strategy, and thus far, I'm not uncomfortable with my approach.
The last thing I have to say about basketball this year is "Webber is a sissy" Frustrating 2 weeks, part my fault, part circumstances.
BOL to all... on to salvage my baseball teams...
rfs
73
Dave R Leader
ID: 12441623 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 17:02
Soundest stragegy IMO is to react rather than anticipate when you have the lead. Sensible approach is to pair up your competitors players by matching, again if you have the lead. If you're trailing the agenda is different, you have to find a way to make up ground, in some ways that could be suicide.
The goal is #1, as I see it 2nd or 10th is no differenet. As my HS basketball used to say, " There's 2 places in life, 1st and all the rest"
74
DR Stars
ID: 0839516 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 17:41
According to Dave R, that means I'm tied for 2nd, woohoo!!!
75
624
ID: 8272617 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 17:56
Blooki, if you happen to read this, congrats on a good season. Forgetting to go Duncan -> Marion skimped me on 100+ TSNP which would look good right now since my lead is down to 10. Nice job cutting it down. You'll probably take it sooner or later.
76
Dave R Leader
ID: 12441623 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 17:59
624 I though the same...like why didn't you take Marion? Hec you had a super lead. What happened and I was surprised you traded away Ostertag? He was doing great for you. I can not seem to catch maxweil for the love of it. He has Crawford and Boozer who have been tearing it up for him whiel I went with Parker over the past week and a half. What a mistake!
78
624
ID: 8272617 Fri, Apr 11, 2003, 22:26
Overslept...that is why I usually trade the people the night before, not during the AM.
Laettner is doing much better than Ostertag. I became sick of his 9 TSNP games.
79
Guru
ID: 330592710 Sat, Apr 12, 2003, 08:54
My worst team ended up with the top result in TSN last night. 459 TSNP. And it didn't even have Garnett (and his 71 TSNP).
First time this year that I've had a team ranked #1 for the day.
81
SillySpheres at Work
ID: 582492810 Sat, Apr 12, 2003, 15:06
hrm, Coach K and Big Game have exactly the same roster.
No matter how I project it, I think I'll have to outguess Guru by about 125 TSPNs on the last day -- unlikely. Went PP/Webber to Kobe/Shaq today.
Guru can follow these moves in any number of ways on for Tuesday's games if he choses as he now has a 3-0 trade lead. With PP questionable (ankle) and Webber having to go, I had to make my moves today. All I can hope for is Kobe/Shaq to go off VS POR. The game really means something this year. I also considered AI/JO combo which would have left me much more cash to work with on Wednesday, but being a Laker fan, this gives me more enjoyment. Too bad no Knicks merit pick up (IMO).
rfs
87
Great One Donor
ID: 41136511 Sun, Apr 13, 2003, 13:50
I overslept and wound up keeping Webber - I would have moved to TMac or Dirk - both of which would have been awesome - but I just went with CWebb>Shaq, so as long as he is solid the next couple, it should be ok. The money loss was irrelevant. I am banking on Kobe/Shaq to go off in an effort to get homecourt. (note-this is coming from a Kings fan)
88
Great One Donor
ID: 41136511 Sun, Apr 13, 2003, 20:25
actually, I went to Duncan on that team and Shaq on the other, but my roster wound up the same. Shaq did just fine today.
89
ukula Donor
ID: 9345146 Mon, Apr 14, 2003, 08:54
looks like I fell back to the dreaded 6th spot. My differentiation picks have done wonders for my opponents. Thanks Elton. All I know is there is going to be major dogfight for spots 3 through 6 on the last day. Congrats to the Guru and rfs - it looks like they have the top two spots sewed up. Where is Jimmy Chitwood when I need him?
ukula
90
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Apr 14, 2003, 09:14
ukula - you were the roster I was most concerned with early in the week. You had the biggest relative upside, but you're right - your differentiation picks did not step up to the challenge. It looks like you'll need a big Wednesday to pull up to 2nd or 3rd.
If my projections work out, there will be about 70 TSNP separating 2nd through 6th. RFS appears to have the leg up on 2nd place, but the field should close the gap on him over the next 2 days (unless Mo Pete and Jefferson go wild tomorrow).
I still have no idea who to pick up or drop on Wednesday. I'll probably try to avoid high-priced guys with meaningless games, but it's still unclear which teams will have nothing to play for.
91
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Apr 14, 2003, 11:24
Dawkins picked up Kidd today. Ukula picked up Kurt Thomas. Ukula has one trade left, and no one else has any - until Weednesday.
I was thinking of taking McGrady today, but decided not to. With Doc Rivers stating that he'll reduce TMac's minutes in the last 2 games, I decided to go a different route. I did consider Kurt Thomas, but he just doesn't fit my "defensive" needs as well.
So I'll simply use my 3 trades tomorrow. My obvious options are to pick 3 of the following 4: Iverson, Jordan, Kobe, Shaq. I have a plan, but I may change my mind tomorrow. Meanwhile, I'll just sit on Garnett, as he looks like a good keeper for Wednesday.
92
J Leader
ID: 49346417 Mon, Apr 14, 2003, 14:23
•Guru (I)•
•Rockafellerskank•
Coach K.
•Big Game Hunter•
•D. Dawkins•
G
Davis, Ricky
38.2
Peterson, Morris
0.0
Kidd, Jason
48.3
McGrady, Tracy
49.8
Allen, Ray
37.6
G
Marbury, Stephon
0.0
Davis, Ricky
38.2
McGrady, Tracy
49.8
Iverson, Allen
0.0
Marbury, Stephon
0.0
G
Kidd, Jason
48.3
Bryant, Kobe
0.0
Allen, Ray
37.6
Kidd, Jason
48.3
Davis, Ricky
38.2
G
Allen, Ray
37.6
Allen, Ray
37.6
Iverson, Allen
0.0
Allen, Ray
37.6
Kidd, Jason
48.3
F
Duncan, Tim
49.0
Nowitzki, Dirk
46.6
Duncan, Tim
49.0
Jordan, Michael
37.4
Thomas, Kenny
0.0
F
Marion, Shawn
0.0
Jefferson, Richard
32.0
Jordan, Michael
37.4
Marion, Shawn
0.0
Duncan, Tim
49.0
F
Thomas, Kenny
0.0
Garnett, Kevin
0.0
Marion, Shawn
0.0
Thomas, Kenny
0.0
Marion, Shawn
0.0
F
Garnett, Kevin
0.0
Marion, Shawn
0.0
Thomas, Kenny
0.0
Duncan, Tim
49.0
Jordan, Michael
37.4
C
Laettner, Christian
32.7
Laettner, Christian
32.7
Nowitzki, Dirk
46.6
Laettner, Christian
32.7
O'Neal, Jermaine
0.0
C
Nowitzki, Dirk
46.6
O'Neal, Shaquille
0.0
Laettner, Christian
32.7
Nowitzki, Dirk
46.6
Nowitzki, Dirk
46.6
Proj Tonight
252
187
301
301
257
SWP
33442.5
33397.5
33276.0
33271.5
33240.5
Behind Leader
---
-45.0
-166.5
-171.0
-202.0
FV
$75.09
$70.62
$73.57
$75.67
$76.36
Trades
3
0
0
0
0
WWR
1
2
3
4
5
93
Guru
ID: 330592710 Mon, Apr 14, 2003, 18:13
Upon further review, picking Jordan tomorrow would be pretty stupid (since he plays tonight).
Not that it matters.... You could pick up Ewing, Drexler & Hakeem and still keep a lead!
95
Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, Apr 15, 2003, 10:00
Using 30-day averages, I should have about a 200 TSNP lead over rfs after tonight's games. He will have about a 100 TSNP lead over teams 3-6. Those teams (Coach K, BigGameHunterZ, Dawkins, and ukula) will be separated by less than 10 TSNP.
Impact players for tonight: Mo Pete (rfs only) Kurt Thomas (ukula only) Marbury (Guru & Dawkins) Jermaine (Dawkins & ukula) Kobe (Guru, rfs, & maybe ukula) Shaq (Guru, rfs, & maybe ukula)
Iverson is on 4 of the 6 teams (missing from rfs & Dawkins) Marion is missing only from ukula.
I'm assuming that ukula will pick up either Kobe or Shaq with his last trade. Either would be a differentiating pick vs. everyone but me and rfs.
In my matchup vs. rfs, I have Iverson, Kenny Thomas, & Marbury as unique players, while rfs has only Mo Pete.
Rfs still has a great deal of differentiation vs. the 3-6 teams. In addition to Mo Pete, he has Kobe and Shaq, which none of the other teams have (although ukula will probably get one of them). So the gap between rfs and 3-6 is still very much open to variation.
96
ukula Donor
ID: 732159 Tue, Apr 15, 2003, 11:04
Kurt Thomas and 'impact player' should NEVER be used in the same sentence.
97
Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, Apr 15, 2003, 11:14
Well, he is having an impact...
98
ukula Donor
ID: 732159 Tue, Apr 15, 2003, 11:20
Yeah, a negative impact on my chances to move up in the standings.
He played two games and I figured even if he averaged 25 points/game I'd have 50 points without much risk versus picking someone else and possibly getting a 35. Oh well, you never know maybe he'll put up a 60 tonight. LOL.
I went through that same thought process but settled on Allan Houston instead. As a Pacer fan, it was difficult to pick Knick players. I'm rooting for an Indiana victory and a high scoring game where Houston scores about 40 points (and KT grabs 20 rebounds for you). Good luck.
102
Guru
ID: 330592710 Tue, Apr 15, 2003, 16:37
Kurt Thomas was a reasonable gambit. Over the past month, his worst back-to-back games produced 40 TSNP, while the best combo was 76, and the average was 50. Those sound comparable to Garnett-type numbers for a single game.
103
Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Apr 16, 2003, 12:10
Final moves: Marbury=>Wally Considered Bonzi Wells, but I had a hunch that RFS picked up Wally as well.
R.Davis=>Brand I figured I'd give Brand one final chance to torch my year. Actually, I also had a hunch that RFS would get Brand, since it potentially differentiated vs me, but matched vs. ukula. The Clips face Portland, so they are somewhat obliged to give it their best shot. And Brand's 78 TSNP outburst on Monday was hard to ignore.
Davis was a tough call, since I think he will probably play tonight, and always has a chance for a monster game. But the chance that he would sit out, or play less than full time, led me to sell.
Marion=>Dirk I do think Dallas still has a big incentive to win tonight, since it would secure home court in a possible second round matchup vs Sacramento. Of course, they may very well lose to the Lakers in round 1, but that isn't tonight's issue. Marion was obviously not going to play a full game tonight.
Shaq=>Jermaine Without a chance at the #4 seed, the almost think the Lakers would rather finish #6 and face Dallas. In any event, they could easily blow out Golden State, and rest Shaq again. Jermaine (and Indiana) still have a bigger incentive to win.
So, we wait and see.
104
Guru
ID: 330592710 Wed, Apr 16, 2003, 12:26
My net matchup vs rfs tonight: Me: Jermaine, Kenny Thomas, Brand, Dirk RFS: McGrady, MO Pete, Jordan, Shaq
His foursome needs to top my foursome by 177.5 TSNP. I feel pretty secure, as long as my four guys show up tonight.
My net matchup vs ukula: Me: Wally, Kenny Thomas, Dirk ukula: Jordan, Antawn Jamison, KMart
No worries there, with a 239 TSNP lead.
RFS vs. ukula: RFS: TMac, Mo Pete, Wally, Shaq ukula: Brand, Jamison, KMart, Jermaine
RFS has a current lead of 61.5 TSNP. This will be a nail biter, I'm sure!
I haven't yet looked at the next several teams, but the battle for 2-6th still looks like a barnburner.
Thanks for doing all the work on comparisons Guru. Congratualtions on a well played last month. I agree that if unless your team (4 guys) get caught in traffic jams, you win. I've learned a lot in the past 30 days, but I guess that's why you're the Guru and I'm the skank!
I picked up Ricky Davis (injury)->MJ because he is amazing and has a flair for doing remarkable things in memorable momements. I don't think 50 real points is out of the question tonight.
I moved Dirk-> T-Mac because I belive he has plenty to play for. I agree that DAL has some incentive left, but T-Mac costs alot of $$ so buying him meant a big sell. Also, plays some D vs #3-6.
I moved Marion -> Wally because I believe Marion will not play significant mintes and Wally has alot to play for. I did want Bonzi, but I ran out of G spost and needed a F. I figured #3-6 would all buy himany way.. more D
I moved R Jefferson-> AI to play some D against owners 3-6. Also, RJ sux! Moving to him instead of K-mart at the time I did was a 67 point swing. At the time RJ had averaged 38.7 over his past 7 games with a 69.5 high. K-mart had just come back after 3 DNPs. Who knew?
Guru - Thanks for the matchups and congratulations in advance.
Let's see, I went Kenny Thomas > KMart because Thomas' production has dropped recently and I think KMart has more potential to bang out 50+. KMart (and the rest of the Nets) may try to right the ship before heading into the playoffs.
My next move was dropping Kurt Thomas and picking up Garnett. No analysis needed.
My third move was originally Ricky Davis > Wally and since I was relatively happy with the rest of my team I was going to bank the trade for the offseason. After nosing around a bit, I decided to go Wally > Jamison with the last trade because Jamison has been doing ok and it might be an incentive to have a nice game versus the defending champs going into the offseason.
I didn't make any moves in anticipation of others because I have one team in front of me and three nipping at my heels behind me. Any thoughts about what others would do was fruitless in my opinion. I just picked the best players I could and I'll hope for the best.
This was a good battle to the end and whatever happens tonight is out of my hands. The worst I can do is 6th which was beyond my wildest expectations at the beginning of the season. Now maybe I can concentrate on baseball.
Congratulations for a fine season to Guru, rfs, Coach K, Big Game Hunter, and Chocolate Thunder.
Sometimes, if I make a bad move or I am out of trades, I blame the luck factor. But you seem to be in the hunt every basketball season. I don't think that's just luck. Congratulations Guru. It's amazing that I can be in the top 100 and still be so far behind you.
113
D.Dawkins
ID: 552572320 Wed, Apr 16, 2003, 15:11
Nice job with all the match ups Guru. I didn't put too much thought into my trades and it cost me. I made them right when I got up and didn't get the information on Ricky Davis until after I made my trades. Oh well.
I'm just happy the season has come to an end. I made a strong run to the top, but my team ran out of gas and limped to the finish. I'd consider my season a sucess with a 6th place finish.
Congrats to you Guru for taking the top prize. You did an excellent job managing your team the last few weeks. Once you past rfs, you never looked back.
Guru- just curious as to how you found out that info on Ricky Davis' injury. Both Cleveland newspaper links from Rotoworld mention nothing about it at all.
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