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Subject: AAA#2 rationale and draft recap.
Posted by: WonderB
- Sustainer [241053812] Sat, Oct 13, 2007, 13:23
rihc rules apply.
no mention of undrafted players being an important one.
keeping any rationale 2 rounds behind is probably in your best interest.
a rationale is optional but i would love to see a draft recap at the end.
(copied verbatim from Guru's 05-06 recap thread)
I invite each of the participants to share any overall reactions that they have. Feel free to say as much or as little as you wish. As a guide, you might consider the following questions:
1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
2) What surprised you?
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
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| 1 | WonderB
Sustainer
ID: 241053812
Sat, Oct 13, 2007, 13:37
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i chose the highest available draft spot i could, 7th. i wanted a middle spot, truth be told if i had my choice i would have picked 5th - there were 5 top guys i would have debated over if i had 1st.
in the end i got one of the 5, gilbert, with 7 so i'm happy.
i took bosh with my 2nd pick, #15, lower than he would have gone without foot and knee issues but screw it. i'm a raptors fan being from the area and it's going to be really exciting to go and see a game this year. we (wife) always splurge and get like 2nd row seats once a year.
anyway two picks in and i have a surgically repaired shoulder and knee - one sore knee - one plantar faceitis however you spell it.
good start.
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| 2 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sun, Oct 14x, 2007, 15:45
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1.06 Steve Nash, PG, Phoenix Suns
I was elated to finally land a top draft spot, or choice thereof in one of these RIHC leagues. I think I've been maybe 11th for the last 2 years, and have not really liked picking then waiting 20 picks for my next pick. It's too hard to get guys you want without reaching. So my thought process in selecting from the middle of the draft order was to help even out the picking schedule, to hopefully avoid reaching and also make it more likely to get players I felt were falling a bit, if there are any with this group (unlikely). So I decided I could not completely let that desire override my opportunity to get a top level player with an early first round pick. So I looked at the top players this year, their health, etc., and decided that since I couldn't guarantee myself KG, the next 5 guys were pretty elite and I would be happy with any of them, ultimately. The one I REALLY wanted, however, was Nash, and I looked at various rankings on the net and the already started RIHC draft and I postulated that I could get him with the sixth pick. 2 years ago I wanted him in RIHC at the 11th spot and Guru took him with the 10th spot. Grrrrr. I felt that Kobe, KG, Marion, Lebron, and Dirk were most likely the top 5 picks, but I thought there was a chance that someone would take Arenas. I'd have been happy with any of these picks except Arenas, so I figured six guys, #6 pick, no brainer.
Nash amazes me in part from a fantasy perspective because in addition to totally dominating assists, he shoots tremendous percentages (53% for a PG? unreal!), shoots enough FT's and FG's for his %'s to matter, gets 3's, is very durable, will get lots of minutes, yada yada, he's just a little weak on steals for a PG. But with his assists and percentages along with 3's I could certainly live with a few less steals out of one player. I hope and anticipate he will have another MVP caliber season and I was totally jazzed to have him here at #6. For some reason I was worried he'd go with the #4 or #5 pick, but I knew I could "live" with Dirk or Kobe or Marion. I doubted Bron Bron or KG would fall, and sure enough they didn't. I'm glad XP was happy with Arenas, but I decided he's going to be even worse of a chucker this year with his contract status up in the air and the perpetual chip on his shoulder, along with his saviour mentality. The only thing worse than a chucker is a high volume chucker. Plus, he's coming off a gimpy knee and yeah he's a fine physical specimen but I just didn't want to invest bigtime (first round) in an injured guy. I'm hoping Nash will fix many of my seemingly perpetual assist cat ranking woes.
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| 3 | Tree
ID: 3533298
Tue, Oct 16, 2007, 12:23
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1.08 Amare Stoudemire, C, PHX
this was a tough pick for me, i just wasn't sure where to go with it. i actually had Wade and Ming ranked higher, but i was worried about their fragility.
of course, Amare has a similar fragility, but, to me, seems like he's got the body type to play through it and be a powerhouse.
i also went a bit with position scarcity here, because i think quality C can be hard to come by.
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| 4 | Tree
ID: 3533298
Tue, Oct 16, 2007, 12:25
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2.05 Deron Williams, PG, Utah
this one was considerably less difficult for me. i knew i wanted a PG with this pick, and i wanted one who certainly was going to give me assists. this was who i was targeting as soon as picked Amare, and i got what i wanted.
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| 5 | deejay
Donor
ID: 501182710
Tue, Oct 16, 2007, 13:02
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1.05 Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas
Well, ended up having draft pick number 5 and doubted between Dirk and Arenas, not long though. He should have a decent season again, unless he twists too many ankles.
Its actually the first time I draft him, had really hoped for Marion here, but he went fast.
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| 6 | deejay
Donor
ID: 501182710
Tue, Oct 16, 2007, 15:27
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2.08 Marcus Camby, C, Denver
There are always the injury concerns owning him, but when playing he's a beast, he rebounds and blocks like the best, has a good FT%. One C less to go, came in handy too.
I like this pick.
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| 7 | WonderB
ID: 419161513
Tue, Oct 16, 2007, 21:52
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3.07 chauncy billubs,PG, det
a bit of 'best available' here but leaning towards a PG or a C. i wanted to keep building on my first two picks especially when these were the positions that would/went fast.
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| 8 | Urmas
ID: 44411285
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 06:26
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Draft spot
Have you ever been debating between two players and then wonder excitedly if the player you did not choose makes it back to you. The other managers keep on picking and the player, you now realize you really should have taken, is still available. Closer. Another pick. Still closer. And then you watch in agony how some bastard takes him right from under your nose. ****! Very frustrating. Drafting at the turn will ... I mean may ... reduce that stress up to 50%.
But seriously. I hoped I would get a top 7 position. Then I would've been able to pick either one of the 6 players Pacers Rule mentioned or Arenas. After it was clear it won't happen I didn't care much what spot I get. I chose 12 because this way I'll be the first who gets to choose among players not taken in first round.
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| 9 | Urmas
ID: 44411285
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 06:29
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As my picks this time, especially if queue is not involved, are more interconnected than picks made from a mid-draft spot would be, it makes sense to discuss them two at a time.
1.12 Pau Gasol, FC, MEM
If past experience has taught me anything, which is doubtful, then it is that it's good idea to get a stud PG and C with early picks. (Truth be told, getting a stud anything with a latter pick is not really something one should count on.) So that's what I tried to do.
I probably would've preferred Yao Ming but xpdurmind was kind enough to spare me from having to make the choice. Last season Pau missed a few games due to an injury suffered while playing for Spain. This season there seems to be no such worries so I can hope for 80 games from him. Averages of 20/10 with 2 blocks, 3.5 assists and good percentages are, in fact, modest expectations. It remains to be seen how and if changes to Grizzlies roster will influence Gasol's stats.
Other players considered: Ray Allen, Dwyane Wade. I think Ray Allen will have a very good year playing with Pierce and Garnett. However, if I looked at who might be available for my next batch of picks I found quite a few shooting guards from that list so I thought I might be able to get someone almost as good then. As far as Wade is concerned... I didn't want to waste a first round pick on someone injured. Besides, I didn't really have to worry about him being still available for my next pick, did I?
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| 10 | Urmas
ID: 44411285
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 06:30
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2.01 Dwyane Wade, PG, MIA
OK, so his injured now. He'll be back by the end of November at the latest. That should still mean about 70 games from him. That's good for me. Under normal circumstances he'd be a definite top 10, perhaps even top 5, pick. I believe after he returns to action he'll play like one too.
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| 11 | Tequila
ID: 59251714
Wed, Oct 17, 2007, 16:25
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1.01 Kevin Garnett
i had the opportunity to draft the #1 pick and i took it. Maybe his numbers with allen and pierce will go down a little bit but i think he should be very committed and that's enough for me.
2.12 Allen Iverson
i needed a g and ai was still available, what to say more ? Also this is the first season with denver from the start for AI and i'm expecting points, steal and assists.
3.01 Al Jefferson
maybe i drafted him too early but he is putting such good numbers in this preseason. If he'll produce such numbers in the regular season, blocks and rebounds could be already ok.
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| 12 | deejay
Donor
ID: 501182710
Fri, Oct 19, 2007, 15:31
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3.05 Kevin Martin,SG, Kings
I was aiming for Joe Johnson with this pick, but he went off the board 3picks in front of me, so that brought me to Martin, who I think does very well in this format, and actually is ranked very good on yahoo, it is a bit of a gamble that early prolly to many of you, but I think hes gonna have a huge year.
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| 13 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 18:15
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2.07 Andre Iguodala, SF, PHI
Well, I really had no intention of selecting a wing player here. I had been planning on a big, and in fact came super close to selecting one of my favorite NBA players here, Dwight Howard. However, due to his Shaq-like effect on FT% due to the high volume of attempts he makes, I could not pull the trigger. After securing Nash and his nice %s with pick one, I didn't want to crush my FT% immediately with this pick. Maybe Howard will make amazing progress and exceed the 67% he has shown this preseason, but I just didn't want to wager my fantasy season on it.
A.I. kind of came at me from nowhere when I looked at some ranking sheets. I mean NBA.com had him ranked as a first round pick. I was shocked by this but when I looked at his gaudy numbers across the board, I could see why. I felt if I could get PG assist #'s from a SF to go with his other very nice stats, esp. steals, I might just have to wait for that coveted big until the next round.
In retrospect, unless A.I. starts going even more nuts on the steals, it looks like I might be close to last in that cat anyway. In other words, I might be interested in dealing A.I. if the price was right. A.I. has good percentages, esp. if he bounces back up a little on FG% from last season now that he has had more time to adjust to the go-to-guy role on his team.
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| 14 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Mon, Oct 22, 2007, 18:35
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3.06 Carmelo Anthony, SF, DEN
Again, I had not targeted Carmelo here, though I remember thinking about seeing if he was available when I was up next when he didn't get taken as early as I expected. I remember calling his selection a reach in a recent draft because he is relatively weak in steals and blocks, but felt I had to eat humble pie when the manager pointed out his very nice points and percentages, which become even more valuable considering his high volume of attempts. Plus, he wasn't that bad on steals, and points should be killer.
I guess I got kind of burned last year b/c I made %'s pretty low priority last year, and it hurt me big time. So this year I was anxious not to ignore the percentages again. I felt with these three players, though I was behind in blocks and boards, I felt I was ahead with assists, percentages, and in good shape on points as well. I knew rebounds could be had later for cheap so I decided my quest for a big would have to wait yet another round. I feel Carmelo is coming into his own now and his game is starting to mature. He's seen as a leader in USA basketball now and A.I. (the original) has already been very gracious in being careful to keep Anthony as the spotlight of this team. I think those factors bode well for his production this year.
I also would have considered Camby here had he fallen - he is monstrous when healthy, but I didn't want to gamble a second round pick with him, esp. not with Iguodala still on the board. If J.O. would stay healthy, he'd have been a decent value here in the third, but I was looking for him to possibly fall to the fourth. I also considered Chauncey Billups, to try to keep my Nash stranglehold on assists intact, but Carmelo gives surprisingly good assist numbers as well. I was hoping Pierce might fall to me here with worries about his production with Ray Ray and KG in town, but no dice. Those were the main other players I considered/targeted here, so Carmelo was my guy.
Ultimately, Carmelo felt like a 'fun' pick and even though I kept being worried about big man stats, I just felt too good about what I was getting from these smalls and wings.
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| 15 | Urmas
ID: 44411285
Tue, Oct 23, 2007, 08:49
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3.12, Michael Redd, SG, MIL
4.01, Kirk Hinrich, PG, CHI
I actually wanted to take a big man here (i.e. PF or C) but after both Jermaine O'Neal and Emeka Okafor were taken just before me, the choice was rather limited. The situation with guards however was much better. Although the top guards were, predictably, gone there were still some very good options available. Watching as in AAA 1 Joe Johnson lasted all the way to 3.10 I hoped he would slip even more here. But no such luck.
Michael Redd was arguably the best SG left at this point. I have to 100% agree with how he was characterized on Yahoo! Big Board Basketball: Elite in all ways offense, but not much else to his game. What he does he does well and that's shooting. His %s are good for someone taking as many shots. That 1+ steal he gets per game is useful too. And, of course, the three-pointers. I really needed that, because Dwyane Wade is one of those PGs who doesn't give much in that category.
Kirk Hinrich's stats are actually quite similar to those of Redd. Less points and more assists, of course. Reportedly he has improved his shooting over summer. That should mean first of all more points - his percentages were OK last season already.
5.12, Rasheed Wallace, PF, DET
6.01, T.J. Ford, PG, TOR
In my opinion 5th round is the most critical of them all. This is where the game is won or, as is usually my case, lost. If I think back to my past RIHC leagues then in most cases 5th round is where I make my big mistake. Except of course last season. Then it started to go wrong in round 3 and it was all downhill from there.
When thinking of those two picks my mind first wandered in two different directions - big and small. PF/C and PG (and in general direction SGs as well). The plan was to use these picks to take either two big men or a big man and a point guard. Above all I was looking for blocks and rebounds. When I was up I again found that the choice of big men left was somewhat limited and the 5th round (starting with pick 4.12) cleared the table of PGs as well. Boy, was I glad I took my 2nd PG in 4th round!
Rasheed Wallace was the best big man left at this point. He may not get as many blocks as some other big men but he compensates that with 3-pointers. 1.5 he's going to get is still good. It's unlikely he'll average 20/8 like in his best season(s) but 14-15/7 would be nice. It would also be nice if these stories about him playing also at center this season would become true. We'll see about that.
I'm afraid I don't really have much to say about T.J. Ford apart from the fact that he is a decent PG who'll probably improve a bit this year. Toronto is, this season more than ever, employing fast paced offense which should suit TJ very well. But I still would've preferred someone, almost anyone, taken in round 5. Sorry TJ, if you're reading this. Now it's up to you to prove me wrong.
Also considered were Manu Ginobili, LaMarcus Aldrige, Ben Gordon and (very briefly) Rafer Alston.
7.12, Nene Hilario, FC, DEN
8.01, Stephen Jackson, GF, GSW
Preparation for those two picks went to pretty much the same direction as with previous two occasions. I was thinking big and small. Big and big would've been OK too. My instructions to designated pickers also said to take #1 big man and whoever is #1 after that.
My queue for big men was Nene, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Chris Wilcox Ilgauskas was gone before I was up but i would've preferred Nene anyway. Last year I picked Nene in last round and was very happy with him once he returned from injury layoff. He's still not 100% but I'm sure he's getting there. Getting a steal and a block every game to go with 12-15 points, 7 rebounds and good FG% is just what my team needs at this point.
And this is my small pick, if I may call 6'8 Stephen Jackson that. In my original queue Jackson was behind Wilcox but I managed to push him up a spot just before WonderB made my pick. Jackson contributes in almost all categories. To quote Don Nelson: "the only thing that he doesn't do is rebound". Once he has served his 7-game suspension he should be Warriors' main man. That should mean a lot of points (I don't think 20 is expecting too much) and 3-pointers. Hopefully being co-captain of Warriors will take some of the silliness away from his on (and off-) court behavior. Anyway, he should fit right in with Rasheed Wallace.
9.12, Andres Nocioni, PF, CHI
10.01, Mike Dunleavy, SF, IND
Nocioni would show very nice numbers if, and thats a big if, he gets starter minutes. Last year he averaged 26.5 minutes a game. He also missed games with injury. Bulls' depth chart is crowded. Luol Deng seems to be starting SF but who will get starts as PF? I believe that battle is still very much on. We'll see what happens.
I had targeted Kyle Korver and his 3-pointers here but it was not meant to be - weykool apparently heard my plea and took someone from my queue. Dunleavy was not in my original queue but he seemed like next best option available at the time. I'm not so sure about that anymore. Those mid-round picks sure are difficult.
11.12, Drew Gooden, PF, CLE
12.01, Delonte West, PG, SEA
I had absolutely no idea who to pick here. So those two became need based picks. My team desperately needed rebounds.
Drew Gooden was in my queue in previous round too but then I ended up not taking him. The signals one gets about him are mixed. With Ilgauskas in decline he is expected to feature more prominently in Cavs offensive plans, which should be good for his stats. Some, however, see this as a worrying sign for Cleveland. Anderson Valerjao is sitting out in contract dispute and that should mean more minutes to Gooden until Valerjao signs his contract. Well, at least he gets rebounds and that's just what my team needed. Starter PF of a good team in round 11 - not too bad actually.
I have this tendency to take players I've had and been pleased with in previous years. Nene was this kind of pick and so is Delonte West. His situation this year is quite similar to last year - he is fighting for minutes in a crowded depth chart of a poor team. Las season he got the minutes more often than not and on those occasions he rarely disappointed. I expect the same this time.
13.12, Alonzo Mourning, C, MIA
14.01, Mark Blount, C, MIN
My plan with these two picks was to take a center (wanted to have 3rd C-eligible player for the case Rasheed Wallace won't gain it) and a Quentin Richardson (best player available at this point, health permitting). It wasn't very nice of weykool to mess up the plan. But that's life I guess. So I took a center and, ahem, a center.
Mourning, behind Shaq in Miami depth chart, is understandably just a shadow of his former self but still offers some very useful numbers. Blocks above all. In the very likely case of Shaq being out injured he produces in other categories as well. Blount should be starter for Minnesota unless the job is given to Al Jefferson. He's the kind of player who offers nothing spectacular but should not hurt much either. I don't think I'll keep them both for very long.
15.12, Desmond Mason, SF, MIL
For that all-important make-or-break last pick I wanted to pick someone who is on the verge of a major breakthrough. Ideally young player who'll have much increased role this coming season. I took the player who, after two not-so-good years, is back to the club where he has his best years instead. The preseason has been anything but encouraging. I'm not overly optimistic.
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| 16 | deejay
Donor
ID: 501182710
Tue, Oct 23, 2007, 09:00
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Yes I did. Stay away from bad FT%, assure me of threes was mainly the idea. Catogories where I usually am not that good in.
It pretty much went like expected, as there were the usual target stealing by certain managers.... cough cough... PR.
2) What surprised you?
Nothing much, we're dealing with managers that know what they do here, so not a lof of guys dropped, Prince did but at that point I went for other needs.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
The PG's went rather fast than expected, so at one point I needed not necessarily to grab the best available(to me), but rather the best PG available. Happy with Felton though.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Prolly get a PG in round 3, though I am happy with Martin there, who ranked #12 in this format before it all started. Could have taken one round 4 but gambled Felton would drop(which he did), and took Mike Miller, a monster in this format.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
Worst: round 10: Frye, prolly too early, but gambled he will get minutes in Portland, and his FT% is excellent for someone that you can put at C.
Best: round 12: Anthony Parker, a steal imho. Now if Sam Mitchell keeps playing/liking him...
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
6.07 Maggette, PR, I wanted him so bad with 6.08, and PR stole him :)
8.02 Brad Miller, weykool, he was my target in this round , but weykool seem to know that and took him, think he will bounce back this year and he does a bit of everything
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
Bargnini
Shaq
Peja(because I dont believe he can stay healthy)
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Pacers Rule's team.
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| 17 | WonderB
ID: 419161513
Wed, Oct 24, 2007, 11:43
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a quick rundown of the team.
gilbert and bosh i talked about. i added more injuryies making my team the all injured.
billups was just a best available pick though i leaned toward a PG maybe. deng and david west were too although deng scared me with a 2 min game that turned out to be a minor wrist strain.
then i added dalembert. i thought there was better talent on the board but then i thought that with just about every center. the price of a C. dalembert fell compared to other C's on his injury concerns, i needed a second and he provides better than avg blocks. assuming he can still jump with his foot.
foye was a 3rd PG and an upside pick.
battier and mobley were uninteresting picks that i agonized over a little. here is where the draft got tough for me. you may have noticed i didn't pick within my ussual 10 mins. these two will get the job done i think. i wanted guys with definite roles and thought it was to early to take chances on guys who were either battling for a position or might....especially since i'd taken enough chances already.
i took brand because i couldn't find anyone else i wanted. great anouther injury. but there are always a couple prize waiver pickups so hopefully it works out.
then there was haywood. possibly my only starting C on opening night. i took him early but like i said, they were flying off the shelf.
after that we were down to all the big ???'s.
outlaw and villanueva are in battles for mins but i think i picked the men with the advantages.
dorell wright...i've read great things, now lets see it.
reggie evens i have high hopes he will be a great rebounder. but he could be among my first cut.
my stratigy while sitting in the middle of the draft was to grab deals as i could. i have to say not many came along.
not much surprizing. centers moved quick but thats normal.
if i could do it over i would grab a 2nd center in the 4 or 5th round. if everybody is reaching a little there is no penalty for doing it too.
best? hmmmm. i can tell you the picks i'm happier about. billups. foye i have hopes for. haywood and evans i hope will step up nicely, if they don't i could be in trouble.
i really wanted prince who was taken right in front of me. felt like a drop off after him like PR GRRRRRR said. aldrige in 6 and hamilton in 7 look good
higher than expected, nothing too obvious. beware the shaq. i wasn't looking at iverson or jefferson yet, sorry tequila.
ben wallace in 5th maybe.
trade? i think doug has a solid team. but i think solid can be beaten with alot of upside like tree's durant granger rondo belinelli. ya i think tree's team could be exciting
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| 18 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Wed, Oct 24, 2007, 22:19
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4.07 Lamar Odom, PF, LAL
Well, after taking a PG and 2 wing players, I was starting to get desperate for a big man. I had somehow imagined that J.O. might drop with the perpetual injury concerns, and his current injured status, but he didn't even come close. I thought there was a chance Okafor or Boozer might fall as well, but no dice. I wasn't so sure about Okafor due to percentages and injury concerns, but luckily didn't have to worry about that. I also considered a PG here, but the more I looked at Odom and saw his nice boards AND Assists for a big man, I kind of felt like with him I was not only getting my PF but also almost getting 2/3 of a PG here as well. I like Odom's potential to exceed projections, which if he could ever get comfortable in the offense (not so likely) or he or Kobe get traded (more likely) there seems to be a potential for him to do even more. He gets decent points and his percentages are decent but not great, but his 1 steal a game I thought was ok even though his blocks are weak. I figured he was the BPA at this point, so welcome to the Indy Dream, Lamar.
I figured I'd go probably go big again next round, or if I could steal a good PG, I'd go big after that.
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| 19 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Wed, Oct 24, 2007, 22:50
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5.06 Antawn Jamison, PF, WAS
Well, I had left a queue again for this pick and I had Felton at the top. I felt like he was going to go huge this year and I would be just ecstatic about taking him here. I thought if I land Felton, I have pretty much wrapped up the assists category after five rounds and can focus on other things. Initially, I figured it was a longshot for him to make it back to me, since several managers drafting twice before me still didn't even have a single PG, and others had only 1, but I thought there were still a few good ones out there so maybe I'd get lucky and he'd be overlooked. Felton made it all the way until the pick right before me, and with each successive pick he survived, my excitement grew. Really, Jamison was kind of like the player I stuck in my queue because I didn't want to hold up the draft, and he was projected to go here or higher in rankings I had seen, and I knew he would give me points, boards, and also 3's, which at this point I felt I was behind in in addition to blocks, steals and boards. I worried that he was too weak in blocks for a big and I was feeling like it was getting to be now or never time for that cat.
As I realized this, I decided I didn't want him just yet and would need to think more about this pick if Felton wasn't available here. It turned out that before I could get back to Kafenatid I was up and Felton was gone and Antawn was selected from my queue. When I realized how close I had come to getting Felton, and that I hadn't, and that even though I didn't really want Jamison (for sure) I ended up with him, I had some brief moaning and groaning about it. However, when my fellow managers assured me he was a good pick here, I decided worse things could have happened. His FG% is a little low for a big, but considering his 2 threes a game, I think he's just fine at 46%. His FT% of 73 wasn't going to help me but wasn't going to hurt me too badly either. His steal a game was enough to satisfy me and since he's definitely a go to guy in Washington I felt ok with this pick, though I still do worry a bit about the potential of Washington self-destructing this year if Arenas decides his next contract is more important than the team, or in my case, Antawn's stats.
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| 20 | xpdurmind
Sustainer
ID: 319471922
Thu, Oct 25, 2007, 00:41
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New Page 1 Last year I tried to follow NBA.com’s draft strategy only to watch it turn ugly. I decided not to follow a strategy this year aside from keeping decent percentages. I wasn’t able to even stay with that one. Too many managers had the same idea. I decided to enjoy the draft instead of stressing over my picks. Isn’t that the idea of playing anyway… There are 6 teams out there I like better than mine. I can’t say that is surprising J given the talent and knowledge level of the managers. I think after 9 picks I was still projecting myself to finish last. Well, here’s a run down of my team and thought process: 1.10 Yao Ming, C, Hou I was hoping that Amare would fall down to me. NBA.com had J. Kidd (7), J. Smith(10), Chris Paul(11), AI Jr(12), Wade(13) and Gasol(14) ahead of Yao(15). I thought about taking J Smith, but I didn’t like the %’s. Every year I dig a hole from the first few picks that is difficult for me to recover from. It came down to Yao or Gasol and a question of their playing time. Then I read that Yao got married this summer. I figured he’ll probably want to stay away from home as much as he can now, so he might come to work more often.J 2.03 Vince Carter. NJN, SG By picking Yao, I was leaving 3 guards for 4 picks before it comes back to me. Gasol and Bosh were still out there. There was a good chance I was getting Wade, Kidd or Paul back. I was hoping for Wade here, but weykool decided on taking 2 guards to start a long string of misreads on my part. I considered Deron, but that was too early even though it was going to be 18 picks before my turn again. Passing on J. Smith was tough and I think AI Jr’s averages will be below last season’s. Vince kept staring me in the face. Will he play all his games now that he got his big contract? His true character will show now and I think he will not disappoint. 3.10 Emeka Okafor - CHA [PF,C] I wanted to draft a PG either Hinrich or Baron with this pick, but I thought Okafor will be nabbed before he got back to me. I had misread weykool again. I saw that he already has 2 quality guards (Kidd and Paul) and that he’ll want to address other positions/stats. Instead he took Baron one pick before he got back to me. 3 quality guards with first 3 picks. Nice... 4.03 Caron Butler - WAS [SF] This was a no brainer. He was ranked as a 2nd rounder by most projections. He was in the top 25 before he got hurt last year. There is no reason not to expect the same line this year. 5.10 Mo Williams - MIL [PG, SG] PGs were becoming thin. I didn’t want to tank the assists category. Mo Williams has proved that when healthy he can be up there. I’ll be happy with 6 assists, a three and a steal. 6.03 LaMarcus Aldridge - POR [C] Another no brainer. A sleeper he is not. I’ve seen him taken in the mid 4th round. He was taken in 48th and 50th picks in the other 2 RHIC drafts. I get him in the 63rd pick. I could have used a decent guard here, but I could not justify picking any of the guards left on the board this early. Not even Felton whom I considered. 7.10 Rudy Gay - MEM [SG] I drafted Gay with my 10th round pick last year only to drop him after a few months. I figured he owed meJ I expect a 15 pts, 1 3 pt, 1 steal, 1 block and hopefully a better FG%. 8.03 Jameer Nelson - ORL [PG] Needed a guard and he was the best available talent with a decent FG% for a guard. I think he’ll have a way better year, assist and point wise. Lewis doesn’t need the ball in his hands like Hill did last year. This is also a contract year for him. 9.10 Jarrett Jack - POR [PG, SG] Couldn’t see anything I liked here. I was projecting a need for assists, and given the fact that Roy will be playing with pain again this year and that he might miss some time if his heel flares up, Jack was a safe bet for playing time. 10.03 Jamal Crawford - NYK [SG] I threw FG% out the window with this one. I didn’t like his FG% but I was far below other managers’. At 27, Crawford can still improve.J. He shot 0.476 one year in Chi. so at 17 ppg, 1 steal, 1 3pt, 3 assists and 3 rebounds a game I’m sold. 11.03 Al Thornton - LAC [SF,PF] I was in the backyard earlier that evening . I could smell my neighbors(kids?) smoking the good stuff. I think it affected me because I hadn’t done it in 20 years. I started getting flashbacks That is the only logical explanation I have for trading PR my 11.10 and 12.03 picks for his 11.06 and 13.06 so I can get my hands on Thornton. He would have fell to me 5 picks later. I think he’ll be a good player in this league, but not right now. Even though his preseason #’s look great, that is all it is: preseason. He’s just getting more playing time to get acclimated. He’ll put up some nice stats after the All Star Break if Brand is not back; He’ll need that much time to get the feel of the game at this level. 13.06 Jason WilliamsMIA [PG] I thought that this was a good value pick at the time. I’m not so sure now after the Ricky Davis trade. Still this is a contract year for him if his knees or back or head hold up ( did I forget something?) 13.10 Hakim WarrickMEM [PF] Will Gasol miss some time? Highly possible. 14.03 Rafer AlstonHOU [PG] 3 different sites have him ranked as a 9th rounder. I think all the managers didn’t like the uncertainty, but this is where you take gambles. I took Stephen Jackson with the 13th pick last year and he proved to be a 5th round pick. Alston was ranked 46 by the end of last year. Can he put up similar numbers with all those guards in Houston and all the turmoil in his personal life? Probably not, but It’ll be more like a 9th rounder. 15.10 Martell WebsterPOR [SF] Webster said he’ll be an all star in 3 years when he entered the league as a rookie. That was 3 years ago. Well this is the year. He has the tools. He has the opportunity. Does he have the will?
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| 21 | Urmas
ID: 44411285
Thu, Oct 25, 2007, 03:13
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Sort of. Or at least I tried to have a strategy. I remember writing 4-5 ideas to follow on a piece of paper but I can't find it anymore. I guess that means I threw it (along with the strategy) away some time during the draft. IIRC the main ideas were something like this:
1. Take a PG, a C, and a F in rounds 1-4. (As Gasol is FC, I can say that I did so already in rounds 1 and 2. With Redd being a SF this part of the plan was definitely completed by round 3.)
2. Whenever possible, take the best player available. (I think I did that but it's hard to tell.)
3. Don't panic!
2) What surprised you?
No major surprises.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
Starting round 5, and I said that in my rationales as well, I tried to take someone big (PF/C) and someone small (G/SF) every time it was my turn. I more or less followed that line until round 13. That approach had a lot to do with the fact that I was drafting at the turn and thus had two picks in a row. Taking two guards in rounds 3 and 4 and thus leaving myself short of big men contributed too.
I've read here how many people prefer to be in the middle of the draft so that won't have to wait so long for their next pick. Not me. I absolutely loved my draft spot.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
Nothing. Some picks look a bit iffy now, but in general I'm quite happy with how I did.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
When talking about worst picks I'll exclude everyone I drafted in round 11 or later. Those picks are a bit speculative anyway, so if it won't work out - no big deal. But if it does - great!
Drew Gooden may turn out a very good pick. Captain Jackson may play better than expected too.
Traditionally my worst picks have been made in round 5. I would not want to think that about Rasheed Wallace but... I'm a bit worried about Nene and Mike Dunleavy as well.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
Manu Ginobili in round 6 (although he was selected with pick 6.02 in AAA #1 too).
I also like Tracy McGrady in round 3 even if I would not call it a steal.
Anthony Parker in round 12 is a good pick although I'm not all sold on him. But deejay's conviction of this being the steal of the century deserves a mention.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I was a bit surprised to see Nash go before Arenas but PR's rationale is convincing.
Joe Johnson but only by a few picks. I sort of hoped he would slip all the way to 3.12. But this would've been a steal.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
Probably weykool. I'm not quite sure I'd trade my team for his, but he sure could do very well. He has some high risk/high reward type of picks but if he is rewarded more often than not then that's the team to beat.
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| 22 | weykool
Leader
ID: 41750315
Thu, Oct 25, 2007, 07:22
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1.11 Jason Kidd
I wanted to get a quality PG here and was hoping maybe nash would fall to me.
No such luck.
Kidd offers solid numbers accross the board and I figured he would set a good base to build upon.
2.02 Chris Paul
I was debating here between Paul and Deron.
I think Deron will have plenty of upside this year and as soon as I took Paul I had regrets for not getting Deron.
However, the more I am reading about Paul the more happy I am with this pick.
So...No I will not trade Paul for Deron straight up.....Tree will need to throw in Boozer as well.
3.11 Jermaine O'Neal
With two PG's on the team I wanted to get a big man here.
I was hoping that Okafor would fall to me but he was taken just before my pick. (curse you XP)
Jermo offers solid numbers when he plays and while last minute DNP's are very annoying when playing at TSN, they dont have the same affect in this game.
Those "lost" games can be made up with other players.
Jermo played in 69 games last year which was more than several players who are not considered to be injury prone.
4.02 Baron Davis
It wasnt my intention to take a 3rd PG here but I kept looking at Baron and thind dang someone up the line is going to be getting a real nice steal here.
The more I thought about it I just couldnt allow that to happen and figured if he was a steal then why shouldnt it be me who got the benefit.
I was very strong last year at the PG position with Nash/Billups/Ford/Livingston/Ridnour and I dominated the assist category and was in a good position to trade a PG for a big later in the season.
Last year I traded Billups for Yao just prior to Yao's injury so it didnt work out as well as I had hoped (I might be playing in RIFC if it did) but it worked out well enough.
If all goes as planned I will be in the market sometime in January to trade a quality PG for a big man this year.
5.11 Ron Artest
Nothing much to say here.
With 3 PG's already I needed to focus on my forward slots and Artest seemed to be the BPA.
6.02 Manu Ginobili
Gino offers decent numbers across the board and should help in more cats than he will hurt.
7.11 Peja Stojakovic
I was debating he between Peja and Tayshaun and finally decided on Peja.
I'm hoping to see an increase in his 3's if he can stay healthy.
I was surprised to see Tayshaun fall another 19 picks which prompted me to seek a trade with Pacers.
Although I thought he was good value here I didnt think downgrading Jermo to Odom was worth that much of a value pick for Tayshaun.
8.02 Brad Miller
What can I say here?
Prior to last year Miller was a round 2-3 pick and I have this feeling he will return close to his old self this year.
9.11 Kyle Korver
Helps to fill the difficult 3's catagory.
10.02 Udonis Haslem
Nothing special about Haslem but every night it seems like is is always 10-8 or 8-10.
Not a bad pick in round 10 for a solid stat stuffer.
11.11 Antonio McDyess
12.02 Jason Kapono
13.11 Quentin Richardson
14.02 Luke Ridnour
15.11 Desagana Diop
My last 5 picks were more safe picks than anything else.
Nothing special.
Nothing too risky.
All expendable if there are better players that I can find on the waiver wire or trade for.
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| 23 | weykool
Leader
ID: 41750315
Thu, Oct 25, 2007, 07:50
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1) Did you have a specific strategy going in? Did it go as expected?
Strategy schmategy.
I always try to pick the best player available.
Did I plan on making my first three picks PG's?
No.
But you have to be willing to adapt.
Anyone who uses a strategy will need to adjust as the draft progresses.
2) What surprised you?
No real surprises.
All the managers at this level are not going to miss too many obvious picks.
3) How did your approach change as things unfolded?
No surprises stick to the plan.
4) If you had to do it over, what would you do differently?
I would be quicker to get my random numbers into the comish so I dont end up with the leftover pick for draft position.
5) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
I think my best pick was Baron.
He seemed like such an obvious steal at the time.
I dont have any regrets on any of my picks......yet.
6) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
I was thinking Tayshaun at first but then I see he may not be all that big of a deal as he went in the 9th round in every RIHC draft.
7) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
I thought Brand went a tad early.
His injury is not something that a player normally recovers quickly from.
Normal recovery time is 1 year.
Even if he plays I doubt he returns to form this year.
I'm hoping he does as a Clipper fan.
8) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
I think Tree could see some upside with Diaw/Hill to go with KG.
Jeffaggy had two solid first picks and could do well if his other picks pan out.
Pacers could see some upside with his Clipper players (Mags/Kaman/Knight) with Brand out and Sam in decline.
I like my team and one of those 3 teams would have to be the favorites to finish in 2nd place.
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| 25 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Sat, Oct 27, 2007, 01:28
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6.07 Corey Maggette, SF, LAC
I still needed a C, and I was still weak in 3's, so I was hoping that Rasheed Wallace would fall to me. No such luck. I thought it was too early for any other C eligibles here. I wanted Granger on my team, but I didn't think he'd go as early as he did. I'm still good with Antawn over Danny in round 5 so I guess I have no regrets. In fact, I didn't think Granger would go until 7th or 8th, but I do think he's a decent pick in the 6th.
I started looking at Maggette, even though I didn't really want another wing player yet, but the more I looked, the more I liked. I think he's probably very undervalued because of how poorly of a shake he's gotten from the Clips even in terms of minutes. This year, with Brand out, he is going to have to step way up and I think this is the opportunity he has been looking for to re-assert himself as a star player. His ability to get to the line and his nice percentage was a major consideration for me. I felt he would make a huge impact on that category for me and I think this was possibly one of my best picks, esp. if it pans out like I think it will, in which case he'll end up 3rd or 4th round material. Plus, I like drafting players that just plain look like studs, and Maggette has quite the physique. He looks to be able to do about whatever he wants.
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| 26 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Tue, Oct 30, 2007, 22:55
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7.06 Chris Kaman, C, LAC
At this point, I was still without a Center, and feeling like I’m going to be dead last in blocks if I don’t get busy here soon with some bigs. I had wanted to focus on bigs and PG’s ala Matthew Berry’s roto strategy but so far the BPA just didn’t seem to be working out that way. Apparently others were having similar ideas. I had been looking at Biedrins here and was planning on taking him here, but then he went a few picks before.
I never really have thought much about Kaman, since I’m not really into the caveman look, in part. However, I heard he cut his hair this summer, and that opened the door to team Indy Dream. I also heard he was motivated to show that last year was a fluke and even participated in summer league play to work on his game. That peaked my interest. Beyond his rededication and haircut, the fact that Brand is out only leaves more room for Kaman to do more. I was happy to see him available here, and I feel he has some upside this year. We’ll see if I’m right. I’m looking for his boards and scoring and FG% to go up this year, hopefully closer to 2 seasons ago, or even beyond, now that all that hair isn’t weighing him down.
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| 27 | Pacers Rule
Sustainer
ID: 910311210
Thu, Nov 01, 2007, 00:10
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8.07 Andrew Bynum, C, LAL
One starting center down, one to go. I still was way behind in blocks, and needed another big to continue catching up. When I was looking at Centers, I was struck with the upside of Bynum this year. With Mimh not likely to see a lot of time and Kwame perpetually on Phil’s “naughty” list, Bynum seems poised for a breakout year as his development progresses. I wasn’t overly enamored with too many other options here, so I went with some upside. I’m hoping for another strong FG% year, maybe 10 points, 8 boards, 2 blocks. I guess we’ll see if he pans out. Seeing Kwame starting over Bynum the first game was not a welcome sight, but it was against Yao after all and Bynum is still projected to get the most minutes. I’m hoping for 32 a game. Kwame looked pretty decent when he was in, however. Here’s to hoping he does something to draw Phil’s ire soon.
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