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Subject: 2008 Draft discussion and analysis
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- [529121611] Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 16:16
I started this tradition last year, so here's my take on my draft and pot shots at your choices.
Yet another draft is complete and I want to record my impressions before they fade. It is tough having to wait until the 20th pick before you get to play, but I am happy with my first pick, well, I hope I’m happy.
I targeted Shields right away. I kept but one pitcher, well, two counting Phillip Hughes, and I want to have a solid staff. I figured CC and Harang would be gone and I had thought Shields would be as good as Rich Hill and less risky than Lincecum.
When it came my turn to pick, I had not envisioned Joe Mauer still on the board. I’m anti-catcher generally, but I’m also a Twins fan. Looking back, could I have picked up Mauer with this pick and Shields still there at 2.13? Well, Wiggs took Myers and Taxman took Billingsley, would either of those two have taken Shields instead? I really had my heart set on Shields, let’s hope that was the right move.
I couldn’t believe y’all let Coldwater take Carlos Guillen. Man, you just let him fill out a wicked infield. I think Action Figures’ Sheets and PV’s Beltre picks were questionable since both squads needed shortstops and Carlos was on the board. Well, Coldwater balanced his Yang with a Ying pick of Ryan Garko in the second round. I also felt BJ Ryan was too risky for that high a pick. We’ll see.
I did not have my heart set on Gary Sheffield, but when he was still available at 2.13, his upside is so high, I had to pull the trigger. Going into the draft, I figured I would take a closer here. In the past, closers fly off the board in the first round, then the madness cools down, but this year closers were like the last seat when the music stops during Musical Chairs. I targeted Matt Capps, but he was gone. I figured this was too soon to take J. Soria. My choice came down to Sheffield and Alex Gordon. Sheff has been ranked as high as #40 on some lists, higher than Sabathia, even. Now, he certainly isn’t ranked that high in keeper leagues, but I’m shooting for the trophy this year and he’s a risk I’m willing to take. Can’t have enough offense, and if you do, it’s time to trade. This could, however, be my "Richie Sexson" of a year ago.
I was biting my nails hoping Gordon would come back to me and I was stoked that he did. Every time you keep Chipper Jones, you need a back-up at the hot corner and Alex is hopefully keeper worthy next year. Of course, last year I drafted a young KC third bagger to back up Chipper and Teahen certainly wasn’t keeper worthy, or even sponge worthy for that matter.
I really liked Perm Dude’s Helton pick, I wanted to snag him. I wondered about Joba, that seemed early, and I was heartened to see Tree continue to make risky picks. Here’s to none of them panning out!
Watching round four go by, I’m starting to wonder – is the league getting better at picking the players I think are going to succeed or am I getting better at figuring that out? I like most of these picks, AF is really taking a chance with Escobar, but he may make 25 starts and win 16 of them. I know I’m really behind the eight ball for saves at this point. I’m certainly not going to punt the category, but I may wait yet another round because AJ Burnett is on the board and I think he’s going to have a great year. Damn you, Taxman. Fine, I’ll take Kevin Gregg. DAMN YOU, Coldwater. Time to roll the dice with a guy a year older than me, ride the roller coaster named Todd Jones. I don’t live in the Detroit market, so I think I’ll be fine as I don’t have to watch him.
This round I was targeting Ian Snell. Bam! goes Nerve. I feel confident that Brandon Lyon will be the closer for the whole year in AZ and as we saw last year, Bob Melvin uses his closer in the optimum way, well, for fantasy, at least. I wouldn’t dare wait another round. How did Taxman get J. Dye so late? Nice play.
So I didn’t land Snell, well my next to sure-fire starters are Dustin McGowan and Zack Greinke. What’s up with Nerve reading my mind! Coldwater then leaves me flummoxed. I fear ending up with some bum who will kill my ERA and WHIP, but everyone I targeted this year is gone, everyone. After thinking for a while and looking at list after list, I started warming up to the Chairman. He was remarkably consistent the last two years, he is just turning 27 and he’s pretty damn good in three categories. Yes, he famously cannot strike people out. I’ll have to make that up with my other starters. For what was left on the board, he really was the last, decent starter.
I picked again right away and want to take the best player on the board. I kept three outfielders and plan on playing Justin Upton this year, too. I’ve already drafted Gary Sheffield, so I’m thick out there, so let’s pile it on. The players I’m debating over are Damon and Jose Guillen. I am painfully aware of how poorly Caveman played last year. He is the Yanks’ lead off hitter and I have to think that even playing poorly he’s going to score 100 runs. As one of seven outfielders, I think I can afford to take the risks. He’s a bargain at pick #182.
Eyebrows were raised when Dontrelle Willis came off the board and J. Saltybackupbackstop. You know how horrible Gerald Laird is, Tree, you just couldn’t believe that Salty could possibly be behind him on the depth chart. That and as a Rangers fan, you hope and pray that your team was bamboozled by the Braves like you did to Sox. Sorry, but even JJ Hardy is better than Salty.
Last year I had a secret plan to get Edgar Renteria way down in the draft and I did it. This year I had a similar plan, this time it was Aaron Hill I was targeting. Nine teams kept second basemen this year, leaving five. Most every list I had seen had Polanco, Kent, Kendrick, Pedoria, and Kelly Johnson above Aaron, so I figured the other four squads would take them and I could wait a long time to grab him. Boom, boom, everyone but MITH has taken a two bagger, so I figured round seven was the best time to grab Hill. What the HELL is Nerve doing! This is the third time he has foiled my plans. Obviously he is on to my system. I’ve never been more stunned in a baseball draft. In my shock, I run to my backup plan, Freddie Sanchez, thee of the bum shoulder. He hit 11 homers in the second half last year while continuing to hit over .300. I don’t need steals out of my second baseman (I hope), so RBI’s, runs, and a high average is great, home runs are gravy.
Punk’s J. Accardo pick was very nice. That left Aaron Heilman on my Q. Here’s to Billy Wagner resigning because of a call girl scandal!!! It wasn’t until later that I realized that CJ Wilson was still on the board. WTF! How did I let that slip? This may be a bigger mistake than letting Nerve read my mind.
Why in the hell is Jose Guillen still on the board? Because he may be suspended for 15 games? This guy is so underrated. He knocked in 99 runs and hit over 20 homers in Safeco last year, he’s going to approach 30 HR’s and surpass 100 rbis in Kauffman. The Royals are going to be improved this year, still last place, but certainly improved. He’s now my seventh outfielder.
Nothing surprising or upsetting in the tenth round. I need to hedge my bet at second base and take Kelly Johnson. At minimum, Freddy may not be ready Opening Day and Kelly may very well put up the numbers I was hoping to get from Aaron Hill.
I had targeted JR Towles for my backstop, figuring he was fairly unknown. Then Baldwin snags him. Come on, Moises Alou was still there! Damn, I hate catchers. Fine, I’ll take Adam LaRoche, Lyndon’s boy. He can tell me how evil George Soros is in between homers. Wiggs, damn you…
I am a little surprised at how many set up men have been taken this year. We aren’t that deep of a league. Well, Eric Gagne sucks ass and Turnbow has certainly matured since he last had closer duties in Brewtown. He either gets promoted to closer at some point or gets a lot of wins as the Brewers will be even better this year.
Can’t even bother to get excited about Ramon Hernandez. Here’s to some unknown catcher catching fire in April and me eagerly riding that train into October!
I’m thirsting for the pennant this year having come so close last year. I think my keepers are top notch and I sure hope that missing out on the first 20 picks won’t set me back too much. Great draft, all, I eagerly await opening day. |
| 1 | Boldwin
ID: 3013265
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 01:39
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First three rounds...ideally I planned on a closer and then Kemp and Victorino, those 2 outfielders being my 'must have' players this year. Really expected them to go in the tenth or eleventh but I got beaten out on both in my other expert keeper league and when Kemp 'went too early' I just had to snag Victorino immediately thereafter. Saves look to be a problem for me especially after I finally gave up on Furcal, my perenial waste of keeper space. I've read Furcal means fragile in spanish.
Oh yeah, my first pick after the heartbreak of seeing both CC Sabathia and Saito pulled off the board one two, was Rich Hill. The remaining closers didn't seem round one worthy. Harang might have been a better pick but I just like Hills upside better. My fav picks in rd#1 [8] CC, Saito and Kemp.
2[9] As I stated, SB's needed a kickstart and Victorino was next. Fav picks in 2[9] Lincecum [you will notice Tree and I share a disturbing similarity in taste for picks. [shudder] Victorino and Kemp.
3[10] Chad Cordero. The better closers will be gone before it comes back around and Chad is the best available. really expected Corpas to be available here but no. Corpas is my second closer in the other league. Really had a thing for Chad Cordero a few years back and tho his stock has been falling a tad since then I still don't mind this pick.
Fav picks, Cain, Joba [crazy early but I still like this pick], Javier Vazquez [amazing this guy is as young as he is and so many big league years under his belt already. Tho his trajectory hit a snag a few years back I think he shows even another gear and had a better year last year than most realize. Kendrick, so early, but so promising.
Soooo glad I was not reduced to scrounging for Lidge and Gagne at this round *cough*.
4[11] Stud middle infielders are gone by now but I can further address my SB weakness and get in on that primo Det lineup goodness a bit here with Renteria. I think those players are gonna be stoked about their possibilities and focused.
Like Pedroia and have him in the other but too early here IMO. I have Escobar [who went here] in the other league but the more I look at this situation the more nervous I get. Love the skills but he always missed 40 IP per year and guarantees it this year by starting out missing them. I will be amazed if Punk and I aren't burned by this pick.
Loved the Gregg and Todd Jones picks this round. That is waiting till the last possible second and still coming away ok. Was really hoping Todd Jones made it 5 more picks. Get healthy Zumaya.
Even liked the Burnett pick. He's gotta stay healthy one of these years, doesn't he?
5[12] Liked the Billy Butler pick but I was targeting Kent all the way here. Yeah he's old. Watch me get real close to a 300 BA and 30 HR anyway out of a desperately thinned field of choices I had available.
Loved the Penny pick, respected the Dye value, Soto was picked sooo early but I hated to be froze out of that player in both leagues and had to settle for Soto 'lite' in Towles in both as my backup catcher.
6[13] I had just heard the rumor on a Chicago station that Marmol had been chosen to close and was just beside myself when Taxman or someone took forever to pick and by the time I got to pick Punk takes him right before me. Agony, pure agony. Now in truth Pinella is still prolly gonna use Marmol as setup because no other arm in that pen can deliver 2 IP so often and so dependably. Wood prolly gets lots of saves,1 because he is the local sentimental favorite and everyone wants to see him resurrected. His makeup is just so perfect for closing but the odds say he his burned out arm will prevent that from lasting. I get to watch a lotta Marmol and he can be on my team even in middle relief. I just want that guy.
Soze I hafta settle for Irod. See above comments about stoked players in dynomite lineup and think 'he already has 6 hr!' At this point in the draft altho I prolly have the worst keepers in the league, I have a solid bat in every slot, 3 great starters, 2 solid closers. From here on out it's best available athlete and I can breathe easier.
At this point I liked Sherrill, McGowan, Greinke, Wang, Gorzelanny and especially Blalock.
OMG Tree took Oliver Perez. That guy could't buy his way onto my team. At least there is one we don't agree on.
Dontrelle Willis, terrible pick.
7[14] Was targeting Kuroda all the way here. After 3 early good starters [better than my usual ragarms] I just wanted safe here. I'll gamble with my last starter maybe. I don't want 2 heartattacks rounding out my rotation. At worst he's a low strikeout inning eater that knows too much about pitching to kill my whip and ERA. At best he is this year's Dice-K or Nomo when he broke into the MLB scene. A lotta similarities there with early Nomo.
At this point I thot good values were Damon, Meche, JJ Hardy, Ibanez, Bourn. I like Salty but not sure which year I like him.
8[15] I had Rowand on my team that won and he was quite nice. Everyone is expecting him to regress this year but I hear he is being encouraged to run and should add 15 Sb's to last year's totals. So I either got fooled by SF local media hype, or stole a player with a useful uptick in value.
Liked Accardo but not this early. Youkilis, Guthrie, Buchholz, Cueto...love every one of those picks.
9[16] While I was targeting Wigginton all the way as my supersub [people aren't excited by that ballpark anymore? I musta missed that meeting] I am thinking we are all gonna be sorry we let PD snag Iwamura so easily, someday.
10[17] I desperately wanted both Rolen and Blanton at this point and went round and round switching them on my Q. Pick Blanton and I get the most solid worry-free 5 rotation I ever started out with. Get Rolen and half a chance you get the original Rolen with a fresh cleaned out shoulder and half a chance you get a player who never fully recovers and gets his stroke back, juuuuust maybe he slips another round...but no. So I wimp out and play it safe. But oooh that Rolen upside. He shows it, he owns it.
I liked some closers-in-waiting chosen this round but too early?
11[18] Thot about Fukimori and might have taken him if he slid 4 more but no. At this point Towles was a great value. Happy with this if I can't snag Soto.
We may regret letting AF snag Bartlett.
Liked Baker and Carpenter, especially if Bili is calling up a prospect immediately. That had been a plan of mine, stashing Carpenter and calling up Fukudome.
12[19] Everything I have seen Barton do says the books and cheatsheets are underestimating this bat. He was a planned late aquisition all along and I have him in both leagues.
Kotchman, Peralta and Garza are all intriguing.
Kubel and Stephan Drew are the steals of this round but I'm not sure which year they prove me right.
13[20] Manny Parra is unconscious this preseason and injuries are gonna give him the chance to start I think from day one. Under the radar but as good as almost any of the herralded prospects.
I like Milton Bradley this round.
14[21] Schilling, best available injured player I could stash while I call up Fukudome. Only half a chance he pitches effectively or at all but if he does I go into a higher gear in the home stretch.
What if Prior really isn't an Ankiel headcase and he finally gets healthy? Not a bad last round flyer.
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| 2 | nerveclinic
ID: 105222
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 17:45
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I'll just throw out a few quick thoughts.
I was in the same boat as Zen, first pick was about #20 in the draft.
One observation, when we started this league I used to think there were hardly any good picks after the first couple of rounds. Now that we always have 7 keepers, I look at the free agent pool completely differently and find picks I am "comfortable" with deep into the draft...just a different perspective in a keeper league.
RD 2 As I already mentioned, thrilled to get Mauer at pick 119 in the draft, especially in a keeper league.
RD 3 I was torn between Kendrick and Gordon, I literally flipped them back and forth in my cue. In the end I took Kendrick not because I liked him more, but because there were less teams without a 3rd Baseman. I thought the preseason hype on both was fairly equal, and Kendrick has been landing higher up on more cheat sheets then Gordon. Gordon absolutely would have been my next pick.
Rd 4 I didn't want Lowell at third because I wanted upside and youth and Encarnacion seemed like at least equal weight. Obviously at thiis point I am letting pitching slip but the starters I want are falling before my pick and then I realize I can wait on the next tier.
Next few rounds
time to get pitching
Snell
Grienke
Next strategy is to reinforce the two infield spots where I am just OK 2B and 3B
Aaron Hill
Kevin Youkilis
Now I can flip between Kendrick and Hill at 2nd and Edwin and You Kill Us at third.
The next few rounds I dropped in risk picks, younger players with upside Cuddyer, Melky and Orlando Hudson.
I'm screwed on Saves just like last year. I only have one closer and sitting in Dubai its a little tougher to nail the up and comers but I will try.
So regrets, not enough saves and SP is light...we'll see what happens.
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| 3 | Action Figure
ID: 51258919
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:53
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I really hate to divulge my strategy's because then some of you may steal my thoughts if you want to finish 10th or 11th of 14.
My Outfield, Closers, 2B and C positions were set with keepers but now I think I should have taken one more closer early. I had zero SP's as keepers so I decided the first 5 or so rounds should go to SP's
I gambled on some pitchers especially (Escobar, Penny) but aren't all pitchers a gamble anyway? I grabbed a couple of Dodgers pitchers thinking the Torre factor might work some magic. Gil Meche hey a #1 is a #1.
It looked like the guys I needed to fill my holes (1B, SS, 3B) were pretty much picked through so I let those picks sit thinking some decent guys would still be out there late.
For 1B I had been reading some good things about Loney and figured I'd give him a shot. Tommy Lasagna thinks enough of him to have his back, thats good enough for me.
Troy Glaus and Scott Rolen at 3rd, well between the two of them I might get close to a full season if they are injured at different intervals.
Alex Gonzalez is out for the reds at SS in steps Jeff Keppinger he can get hot but even if he doesn't I've got Yuniesky Betancourt ready to go.
Yorvit Torrealba as a backup Catcher, he has been hot as of late and he plays half his games in COL plus we don't need no stinking catchers anyway.
Tom Glavine Hey I'm in Atlanta.
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| 4 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 12:06
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I just did a quick Google search of "Yuniesky Betancourt" and "10th or 11th place" and the hits were in the hundreds of thousands :)
Good stuff so far.
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| 5 | Seattle Zen
ID: 49112418
Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 18:02
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This is the most minutely detailed story regarding a pitcher's stuff I've ever read.
Have you ever heard of the pitchf/x system? In stadiums with the pitchf/x cameras installed (two cameras at different angles that record twenty different attributes of each pitch) every pitch is measured for things like starting and ending velocity, break angle and break length, just a ridiculous amount of data.
At Rotojunkie.com, Mike Fast digested the stats on eight of James Shields' starts and came to some interesting conclusions.
Shields throws his fastball for strikes at about an average rate or a little better. He mostly works away to lefties and in the zone and away to righties. He generates a few more foul balls than normal with the fastball and has pretty good results when lefties make contact with it. Righties are able to pound the fastball when Shields gets in the zone, hitting .469/.906 (avg/slg) when making contact, compared to league average of .330/.521 off the fastball. Righties, on the other hand, had no luck whatsoever against a Shields changeup. The best they could do was foul it off. In the 16 times they made contact in our sample, they managed 1 measly ground ball single to go along with 2 ground ball double plays, 7 other ground ball outs, 1 popout, 4 fly outs, and 1 line drive out, for a stellar .063/.063 line. We have detailed data for 44 of Shields’ 184 strikeouts, and 30 of those 44 came on the changeup. No wonder he throws it so often with two strikes.
Hmm, I'm a little scared that righties crush his fastball when they get their bat on it, but he has them completely fooled when he uses his change. Sounds like he has an above-average curve. Hopefully he will learn to deceive righties with his fastball a bit better and work his curveball in effectively. I like his chances.
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| 6 | Boldwin
ID: 3013265
Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 20:13
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Then check this out.
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