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Subject: Stock sub Thread help with Marvel Posted by: nerveclinic - [105222] Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 13:00 I didn't want to muddy up the regular stock thread with this but I would appreciate some opinions. I am too close to this stock right now to be completely objective. Marvel has continued to perform well in ths market. I late Feb Cramer said this trades over sell it...he said the same thing about Apple at 185 and I sold...smart move. This time I just added more marvel after his comments drove it down. here's the thing. There's a lot riding on the two movies they are about to release. 1) Iron Man staring Robert Downey Jr. The newest trailer looks great in my opinion, much better then the first. The second is Hulk starring Ed Norton. This one I'm not a sure, but the trailer is more of a tease. The first Iron ma trailer wasn't as good as the second. Here's my request. Go to Marvel.com when you have a moment and view both trailers. I'd like some feedback on whether or not they lok like the type of films that will generate buzz. They don't have to do as well as Spiderman, they just have to do well. Don't look at them in the context of how you feel about this type of movie (I'm not a big action hero type film buff) Just gie general impressions of how you think the market for this will react. This is proably my biggest investment at the moment. One problem, if you don't have the latest flash they may tell you to download it. The trailers are here | |||||||
| 1 | WiddleAvi ID: 92112011 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 13:22 | Just a note but I am sure you know this. Cramer feels the upcoming movies are already priced into the stock | ||||||
| 2 | Tree ID: 3533298 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 13:24 |
i'm not able to watch the previews at work, but Iron Man already has a ton of buzz about it, and it has an all-star cast. i mean shoot, at this point, Robert Downey Jr is the least major star in the project. the rest of the cast includes Terrence Howard, Gwyneth Paltrow, Jeff Bridges, and motherf*ckin' Samuel L Jackson as Nick Fury. | ||||||
| 3 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 13:37 |
Cramer feels the upcoming movies are already priced into the stock I didn't know that, he must of discussed it twice. When I saw him comment it was one of those screaming answers to a caller and all he said was "the money's already been made...sell" The stock was at 26 when he made the comment, dropped to 24, and is back to 27. I added at 24. Not gloating by the way, I have a basket full of stocks that are in the gutter drinking sewage. | ||||||
| 4 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 13:46 |
Thanks for the insight Tree, I don't hear the "buzz" over here. | ||||||
| 5 | biliruben ID: 33258140 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 14:56 |
The only thing Cramer should be used for is cheap entertainment. The dude's wrong more often than he's right. He changes his mind so much you can't really use him as a contrarian indicator with any reliability. No idea about Marvel. It's not the sort of stock I would invest in. Low-upside, volatile story stocks that you have to monitor very closely and are susceptible to insider info I'm not privy to. | ||||||
| 6 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 15:37 |
No idea about Marvel. It's not the sort of stock I would invest in. Low-upside, volatile story stocks that you have to monitor very closely and are susceptible to insider info I'm not privy to. No problem Bili there's actually no need to comment on the stock, I was just hoping you would take a look at the two trailers and tell me what you think. | ||||||
| 7 | biliruben ID: 33258140 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 15:44 | I would, except I'm at work and I don't have broadband at home right now. I am stealing an unsecured signal from "Trixie", but she's a slow and fickle lass to use. | ||||||
| 8 | Building 7 ID: 22271821 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 19:40 | I watched them on Youtube. I can't tell much from the trailer...buzzwise. But, when they start parading Paltrow, Jeff Bridges, Downey, Stan Lee, and Samuel L Jackson on all the talk shows ad nauseum there will be a buzz. Of course they have to pay all those people, too. | ||||||
| 9 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 01:13 |
I watched them on Youtube. The trailers on the web site are high def, full screen. | ||||||
| 10 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 02:18 | IronMan is getting buzz early, alot of people aren't thinking too highly of The Hulk because of the last one that came out. | ||||||
| 11 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 04:41 |
alot of people aren't thinking too highly of The Hulk because of the last one that came out. Marvel didn't make the last Hulk. They were NOT happy with it. Actually they were pissed. They were not involved creatively at all. Part of the reason Marvel has decided to take control of the future movies is, they feel they understand the comics better then a third party they hand it to. They intend to make them "edgier". The new Hulk movie will have nothing in common with the last I am told. Check out the trailer, it's not the same Hulk. Everyone is commenting without looking at the 2 minute trailer...8-} | ||||||
| 12 | Boxman ID: 571114225 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 06:14 |
Nerve: With both Iron Man and Hulk I see Marvel going for a different demographic than previous films with their characters. Iron Man so far doesn't look like a popcorn movie I'd take a little kid to automatically in comparison to the Spiderman line. I'd probably see Iron Man first and then take a child. What is the brand familiarity with Iron Man versus Spiderman to your typical child? Does it really matter in this case? Only box office receipts will tell. Edward Norton doesn't strike me as the kind, and I could be wrong, that would make a kiddie movie. I love his movies and the last Hulk sucked so I'm really looking forward to this one. I think this Hulk is in the same demographic boat that Iron Man is in. To me that says both movies won't wind up in the 400 million dollar stratosphere that the Spidermans routinely do. Yet, do they really need to do that to be profitable or as profitable as expectations? Probably not. I think a stock analyst or stock owner of Marvel (yes I know this is Marvel's first venture into movie making versus the others) that expects Spiderman revenue for these two films probably isn't doing their homework. | ||||||
| 13 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 06:32 |
To me that says both movies won't wind up in the 400 million dollar stratosphere that the Spidermans routinely do. Yet, do they really need to do that to be profitable or as profitable as expectations? Probably not. Those aren't the expectations a all. Because Marvel controls and finances the film, all they need to do on these films is 150 mil to be OK anything above 200 mil and they are grinning. They are not expecting anywhere near Spidermans numbers. I think a stock analyst or stock owner of Marvel (yes I know this is Marvel's first venture into movie making versus the others) that expects Spiderman revenue for these two films probably isn't doing their homework. I've done more research on this stock then I have my fantasy drafts. And yet another response that hasn't looked at the trailer which is all I am really asking for. sigh | ||||||
| 14 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 06:58 |
The stock has gone from 22 when I recommended it Oct 19th to 27.37 yesterday, a 20% gain. In the same time frame the SP 500 is down 10%. | ||||||
| 15 | Building 7 ID: 471052128 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 09:09 |
Everyone is commenting without looking at the 2 minute trailer I said I watched them. You don't believe me? | ||||||
| 16 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 13:20 |
I said I watched them. You don't believe me? Sorry I was referring to all the other comments about the stocks where I noted they hadn't watched the trailers. I didn't post it after your comment. | ||||||
| 17 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 13:39 | You asked for Buzz, as I said people aren't thinking too highly because of the last Hulk. Do people walk aroud saying "oh wow a new Hulk is coming out, man that last one sucked, but i'm glad Marvel is taking control this time." No i'll go out on a limb and say that 50% will think it's some kind of sequel. | ||||||
| 18 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 14:39 |
Punk You asked for Buzz Punk actually what I asked, from the original post... Here's my request. Go to Marvel.com when you have a moment and view both trailers. I'd like some feedback on whether or not they look like the type of films that will generate buzz. Meaning based on the trailer not just your random thoughts. Maybe I wasn't clear enough. If you don't have the time I understand. | ||||||
| 19 | Great One ID: 2241519 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 14:58 |
Speaking of movies, I've been loving the Blockbuster stock since last week at around 2.80 Worth a look even now around 3.30 since it seems to have plenty of room to grow. Just going to their stores the last few months I've noticed the changes in merchandise and I can see now why they have turned around their profits. Lots more video game products for sale, movie artwork and some places let you trade in old movies for store credit ala GameStop (or the new MovieStop). | ||||||
| 20 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 15:25 | I've seen both trailers. I want to see Ironman, I don't want to see The Hulk. It just doesn't look like a good enough movie to spend my money to see. Maybe another trailer will look better, but i'm not sure it will change it for me. | ||||||
| 21 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 15:44 |
Speaking of movies, I've been loving the Blockbuster stock since last week at around 2.80 Worth a look even now around 3.30 since it seems to have plenty of room to grow. I would do a lot of research on that one first. Blockbuster has serious financial problems, lots of debt. Netflix has seriously cut into their business, then blockbuster tried to compete on that level and failed miserably. The bankruptcy word has been mentioned quite a bit. Maybe they are turning things around, all I am saying is make sure you research the financials carefully. There's a reason this stock has gone to two. Here's a One year chart of Netflix and Bockbuster. Netflix is the one shooting up (60%), BB is the one going down (45%) Be careful. | ||||||
| 22 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 15:46 |
Punk I don't want to see The Hulk. It just doesn't look like a good enough movie to spend my money to see. Maybe another trailer will look better, but i'm not sure it will change it for me. That's exactly how I feel about both trailers, Hulk just doesn't look as rich to me. From the trailer Downey looks a lot more comfortable in his part then Norton. | ||||||
| 23 | Boxman ID: 571114225 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 16:34 |
I watched them I tell you. I watched them. Yeeesch. :) I loved them by the way and you can count me there to see The Hulk along with Iron Man. That's why I gave you my opinion that The Hulk is in the same demographic that Iron Man is. Both films have a darker tone to them. If they are grinning at 200 million then I think they should be aces over at Marvel because those films should do that internationally easily. | ||||||
| 24 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, Mar 21, 2008, 16:51 |
Thanks Box and Punk and 7. | ||||||
| 25 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Mon, Mar 24, 2008, 20:08 |
Robert Downey, Jr. has confirmed that he will have a cameo in The Incredible Hulk as Iron Man's Tony Stark. It will be small, but will help establish the convention of Marvel film characters appearing in other Marvel movies. Although he didn't want to ruin the surprise, Downey says that he will at least interact with General Ross, played by William Hurt in the film. Also, there are rumors of guest appearances in Iron Man, but no one yet knows who or what they will be, though Hilary Swank and Samuel Jackson are rumored. However, as Iron Man gets closer, that will no doubt be a hard secret for the filmmakers to keep. | ||||||
| 26 | Seattle Zen ID: 29241823 Mon, Mar 24, 2008, 22:11 |
You couldn't pay me to see these movies, but I'm not your market. The Iron Man trailer certainly was better, Junior had some pithy quips. The Hulk trailer was awful, and as other people have mentioned, it has an uphill battle in that there recently was a Hulk movie that totally sucked. Nothing in the trailer made me think this was any different. This is proably my biggest investment at the moment. You really want your biggest investment to be a gamble on box office returns? | ||||||
| 27 | Boldwin ID: 8248236 Mon, Mar 24, 2008, 22:26 |
I'm in the 'I actually had the original issue of each of those franchises but my parents threw them away'... I like them so much I'm not sure I represent an unbiased source but I wouldn't miss them. | ||||||
| 28 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Tue, Mar 25, 2008, 13:44 |
Yeah your not the target audience Zen, neither am I. I doubt I would see either movie. That's why I asked for opinions. The Hulk trailer scares me. The only positive is th Hulk and the monster look awesome. I hated Norton's acting and the scene in the lab. As far as investments it's been one of my best by the last 6 months. It's a great company with lots of business besides the movie. They put all their old comics on line and you can access them for 4.95 a month subscription. They have cartoon shows. Thir toys (Spiderman) blew out at Christmas. I will probably sell some near movie release though. Definitely put in some stops close to Hulk. Up | ||||||
| 29 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sun, Apr 20, 2008, 10:45 |
Man I'm pumped. One week to go and a great article in the New York Times today about Downey's triumphant moment with this film. Talk about good publicity, this article/interview borderlines on hero worship. The stock was at 22 when I first mentioned it in the stock thread. Today it's at 29.25 in this lousy market and has just broken out of it's trading range...albiet on low volume. You would think it was an oil stock. Really is looking like this movie could be big. NY Times article | ||||||
| 30 | Boxman ID: 571114225 Sun, Apr 20, 2008, 11:07 | Every new trailer, promo or news article I see for Iron Man gets me more juiced for the movie. I really think this has potential for transcending the normal super hero movie and might actually have some meat to it. I wonder just how strongly they'll play Tony Stark's alcoholism in the movie. | ||||||
| 31 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Thu, May 01, 2008, 10:09 |
Well I am getting a preview of Iron Man tonight. Thursday is the weekend, so Iron Man opens one day earlier then in the USA. Reviews have been steller, stock is up. Rotton Tomatos shows 48 positive reviews 3 negative. "That's Money" as Iron Man director Jon Favreau would say. | ||||||
| 32 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Fri, May 02, 2008, 04:20 |
Interesting watching this movie in the Middle East. (You'll see what I mean if you see it, the bad guys being Arabic.) The vast majority of the audience was local and wearing local dress. One of the first scenes with the "bad guys", there was a smattering of laughter. The movie seemed generally well received. I went with a friend from Lebanon/Abu Dhabi/Boston. He was a bit pissed by the portrail, I didn't get that sense by the overall crowds reaction. The theatre was packed, 2 screens in a 10 screen theatre, and pretty surreal to be in an audience of dish dashes. I had very high expectations, and I do think the movie was quite good. Definitely not the typical super hero movie though so we will have to see how America reacts. Downey Jr. is pretty funny. I think it will do well. | ||||||
| 33 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sat, May 03, 2008, 07:49 |
Friday's total and new weekend projection far exceeded what the studio and distributor hoped (its 3-day FSS estimate was $65M-70M, or $75M for the 3 1/2 days). This makes Iron Man and its unconventional leading man Robert Downey Jr (which may be one secret to the film's success) the second biggest Marvel comic book movie character behind only Sony's Spider-Man franchise. | ||||||
| 34 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sun, May 04, 2008, 03:39 |
SATURDAY PM: An insider just told me that Marvel's Iron Man has made at least $100 million for the 3 1/2 days of its opening release in North America. "We're having a fantastic Saturday," a source relays. "Most movies in this genre fall Friday to Saturday. Not this one!!!" The total wildly exceeded what Marvel, which self-financed the $140 million production cost, and distributor Paramount thought would be the comic book movie's realistic take from 4,105 theaters during its debut. I'm told the PG-13 action pic also has taken in a monster $50 million overseas from nearly 50 foreign territories. | ||||||
| 35 | biliruben ID: 4911361723 Sun, May 04, 2008, 04:34 | It's gotten great press here, and I hope I'll figure out a way to see it on the big screen. | ||||||
| 36 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sun, May 04, 2008, 08:02 |
NOW Cramer loves Marvel. He told everyone to sell at 26...thanks Jim, it went to 24 and I bought more. Thursday on his show he says the following Marvel Enterprises (MVL): “I'm in Ironman, so it's definitely big... and I think MVL is a winner. Their movie gambit turned out to work. I would pull the trigger, ahead of the big opening.” Conveniently forgetting that he had told everyone to sell a few weeks earlier. Now the stock he said to sell at 26 is sitting at 30+ and he says buy. Just in case you needed more proof you have to be careful with his suggestions. | ||||||
| 37 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sun, May 04, 2008, 11:52 |
The other funny thing about Cramer's "sell signal"? He is in the movie. He does the same schtick he does on made money when he downgrades a stock. In the movie his acting is terrible, much more low key, not nearly as "crazy" as his normal show. | ||||||
| 38 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Sun, May 04, 2008, 17:08 |
The latest... SUNDAY AM: Here are the official blockbuster numbers -- Paramount Pictures release of Marvel Studios' Iron Man, in 4,105 theaters, made an estimated $35,125,000 on Friday 5/2, an estimated $37,500,000 on Saturday 5/3, for an estimated 3-day weekend box office of $100,750,000. Advance screenings in select locations, about 2,500 venues, from 8:00 PM to midnight on Thursday 5/1 contributed an additional $3,500,000. With this addition, the total estimated box office is $104,250,000. The estimated international box office for the weekend is $96,750,000 from 57 territories. The total combined estimated global box office for Marvel Studios' Iron Man is $201,000,000. "It beat Will Smith and Jesus!" gushed a Paramount insider referring to the openings of I Am Legend and The Passion Of The Christ. "It's just mind blowing. Internally, some people were going into high 80sM and low 90sM but people were laughing at them. We had our own box office poll and maybe one person thought $100M." The monster numbers now make Iron Man the second biggest 3-day release for a non-sequel in the history of Hollywood, behind only Sony's first Spider-Man. It's also the No. 10 movie opening weekend and the No. 4 superhero movie weekend of all time. The $140 million production self-financed by Marvel was also distibutor Paramount's biggest live action opening of all time. I understand that, at first, Paramount thought Thursday's advance screenings generated $5 million, but then discovered that $1.7 million ended up being for 12:01 AM shows so that money went towards Friday gross. | ||||||
| 39 | Building 7 ID: 393122614 Tue, May 06, 2008, 20:56 | Good call on that Marvel stock. 33-34 now. Looks like a blockbuster. Apple stock is up, too. Hope you're making a lot of money on them. | ||||||
| 40 | nerveclinic ID: 105222 Wed, May 07, 2008, 05:32 |
Good call on that Marvel stock. 33-34 now. Looks like a blockbuster. Apple stock is up, too. Hope you're making a lot of money on them. Apple is my number 1 holding. Bought at 138, 120, 118 and 117. (originally bought at 89 and sold at 185) Marvel is my number two bought at 22, 24, 26 28.50 (Just last week) Garmin on the other hand...ouch. The next big test is "The Hulk". I don't feel as good about this one as Iron Man but the latest trailer does look better. I think unless it's a complete flop things should be fine. Nerve New Hulk Trailer | ||||||
| 41 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Fri, May 23, 2008, 19:45 | They are talking now about how Spiderman 4 and 5 will be made at the same time and then come out in 2010 and 2011. | ||||||
| 42 | nerveclinic ID: 5047110 Sat, May 24, 2008, 01:36 |
They are talking now about how Spiderman 4 and 5 will be made at the same time and then come out in 2010 and 2011. Well the thing about Spiderman is the entire product isn't owned by Marvel the way that Iron Man is and all the other "new" movies to come. Iron Man is the first where Marvel made the film themselves instead of just licensing the character. They make a lot more money on the films they make themselves, if they do well. | ||||||
| 43 | Boldwin ID: 58452178 Sat, May 24, 2008, 01:41 | While I loved Hulk comics as a kid, I have an uneasy feeling that he tends to flop as an actor because his character goes all one dimensional when he is in the middle of his superpower phase. | ||||||
| 44 | PuNk42AE Donor ID: 036635522 Sat, May 24, 2008, 23:57 | Yeah Sony does most of the Spiderman work, correct? | ||||||
| 45 | nerveclinic ID: 5047110 Sun, May 25, 2008, 01:09 |
Yeah Sony does most of the Spiderman work, correct? Sony owns the rights to make Spiderman movies. As long as they keep making them they retain the rights. Marvel gets a licensing fee. Going forward, unless a character is under contract, Marvel is making all the movies themselves. | ||||||
| 46 | nerveclinic ID: 5047110 Sun, Jun 08, 2008, 03:42 |
Feeling much, much better about Hulk then I did earlier. New trailers look better then the first. Early reviews have been coming in and they are EXCELLENT. So I am going out on a limb here, fairly early, and predicting Marvel has a second hit on their hands. It won't be quite as big as Iron Man but it will do very well. The question is will people put aside the last Hulk movie by Ang Lee and come out with fresh eyes. All the reviews are suggesting people should. Stock has performed extremely well. | ||||||
| 47 | Pancho Villa ID: 51546319 Tue, Aug 05, 2008, 18:39 |
Nerve, Are you still in Marvel? Looks like they're poised to get hammered. | ||||||
| 48 | nerveclinic Leader ID: 5047110 Tue, Aug 05, 2008, 20:09 |
Yeah it got hammered, back to the price it was about 3 weeks ago. I started buying at 22, I've never paid more then 28. It closed at 31 and change today. I've sold some at a nice profit. This is one I believe in for the long term until something changes that thesis. | ||||||
| 49 | Perm Dude ID: 154552311 Mon, Aug 31, 2009, 19:03 |
Disney paying $4 billion for Marvel Hope you're getting in on this, nerve. | ||||||
| 50 | nerveclinic ID: 2381943 Fri, Sep 04, 2009, 04:20 |
Oh yeah it's my biggest holding but I am actually depressed by this news. I would much rather of held onto Marvel for the long haul. It's been by far the best stock in my portfolio the last couple years and never really got hit by the stock melt down. I paid between 22 and 28 a share most under 26, but 50 seems like a light price for this company. Nerve | ||||||
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