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Subject: Proposal for Sweeping Changes to Poli Baseball
Posted by: nerveclinic
- Leader [05047110] Fri, May 28, 2010, 06:46
I'd like to propose a sweeping change to the Political Fantasy Baseball keeper league going forward.
The change is so fundamental and dramatic, that it will involve starting all over, throwing all our players back and redrafting from scratch. You will see why in a minute.
This league is old enough and mature enough that it's about time we run it like a veteran fantasy league instead of the Mickey Mouse one I now realize it's become.
I'm actually the person who started the league and at the time I knew nothing about setting up a keeper league.
Virtually every league I read about now has a system for inflation of your keepers. In Auction leagues, it's done with money, a players cost to your salary increases by $5 dollars a year from the year before. So without going into this too much, since we aren't an auction league (Unfortunately) You have a $260 total budget. Whatever you paid for a player the year before, plus $5 is what your budget is hit with the next year if you keep him. Many leagues also have a cap on how long you can keep a player, 3-5 years usually.
This keeps real talent going back into drafts. It makes yearly drafts more meaningful and enjoyable, and it means every team at least has a shot every year unlike our system now. It still rewards managers who are smart, but limits situations where one manager starts the draft already owning 4 top 10 players.
So how does this inflation work in a draft league (This is why I mentioned we would have to draft from scratch next year) I don't have all the answers, and I think it should be something we discuss the rest of the summer and on through the hot stove league.
Here is an example, but I don't know this is the answer.
Whatever round you drafted a player in the year before, you lose your pick in that round of the draft -5 rounds, or -3 rounds or something like that.
So (still keeping 7 players) let's say you picked someone in round 15 and you keep him, the next year, you lose your turn in the 12th round (or 10th)
The interesting thing is many people will throw back a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round player no matter how good he is because they might anticipate getting someone even better in the 1,2,3rd round.
Writing this I am thinking one cool idea would be we mail our keepers to a 3rd party not in the league and they are all revealed at the same time so people don't stall to see what they would get.
The only negative with the idea above is how to deal with inflation in the early rounds. I don't have that answer but maybe you can't deal with it.
We also need to determine how to deal with prospects we call up. What round do we lose if we keep one.
I'm sure there are lots of good models we could follow from people already doing this but I've only seen the auction league models.
The point is, do we want to play in a league where every year a handful of managers have a huge advantage compared to the people at the bottom of the league? Even those of us who at the end of the year holding the best talent must realize it's better to keep the league competitive rather then coasting with keepers.
I don't want to lose the keeper element, it's what makes the league fun, but it's time we add rules that will make the league exciting every year for all teams because everyone will have hope.
Virtually all keeper leagues I read about has some form of inflation. It's time we have ours.
In real baseball it's the same, if you have a hot young superstar on your team you eventually have to pay him a higher salary which limits how many studs you can hoard. We don't have that.
Let's not immediately take a position on this, we have the next 6 months to decide. Let's all keep open minds and debate and make this the best league possible since we put so much time and years into it. Would love to hear lots of ideas from everyone on how to deal with inflation.
Let the discussion begin.
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| 1 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 08:32
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while i'm not opposed to changes, i couldn't be more opposed to an auction-style league. i also think there has got to be a better way than sacrificing draft picks.
i think a huge hole in your idea is how you deal with players acquired via trade. Tim Lincecum may be the only keeper i have that i drafted. i'm guessing PD is the same way - he probably traded for most of his guys. i'm betting Bili too.
i'm very much opposed to sacrificing draft picks - because i think it would further stifle trading in a league that doesn't trade. the only way i could see it not being detrimental to player movement would adding 7 rounds to our current draft (which would currently become rounds 15 to 21), and those are the picks you lose if you keep 7. you'd lose less picks if you keep less than 7, which should be an option.
we're talking about a league where teams that have no shot rarely make moves to at least attempt to improve that season, or even put themselves in a position to improve next season.
this is a league where, when someone does make a trade to get better for the following season, they are derided and insulted. this is a league where someone feels that making a trade that helped someone win a championship (while at the same time putting themselves in a better position for the follow season), is a bad trade.
Even those of us who at the end of the year holding the best talent must realize it's better to keep the league competitive rather then coasting with keepers.
of of those is trading. trading. trading. trading.
PD put himself in a good position this year with deals he made last year, including one where he picked up the guy who right now is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball.
GO is making moves, such as making an offer i couldn't refuse to acquire David Wright, who i previously would have considered untouchable.
i've always been a trader - as soon as i got into this league i traded Jeff Kent for Luis Castillo - and was immediately congratulated for making such an awful trade that it would ensure the the team i inherited would stay in the basement.
that's how you get better in a keeper league - you BUILD a championship team.
here's an article about rebuilding a keeper league team that i think is a valuable read.
as for "coasting", i've never thought of that with THIS league. this is the most challenging league i am in, and the one i am most proud of being able to win, even if it was just once. you can't coast in this league - you need to have a combination of skill, luck, and timing. taking calculated risks. making trades. fishing the free agent pool. willing to drop someone you drafted and love and think will still produce, but hasn't done so yet. and so on.
i can definitely get on board with mailing keepers to a third party so there is one big reveal. why we haven't done this before is beyond me.
i think increasing the rosters by one bench slot would make the league stronger, because it will add depth to teams. it will also make the draft 15 rounds, which gives the weaker teams (i.e. those with early picks) one more round where they are picking before the stronger teams
i think perhaps turning this into a CONTRACT league might work. i'm in another contract league (i don't believe anyone currently in this league is also in that league, but i could be wrong), and it FANTASTIC.
but it requires dedication to understanding how contract leagues work, and keeping up with the rules and transactions.
in a nutshell:
1. every player on your roster is signed to a contract ranging from 1 to 5 years.
2. you are required to have at least one 5 year guy.
3. we have 25 man rosters in that league and OUR TOTAL contract years cannot exceed 50.
4. you must have 12 (or maybe 13, can't remember at the moment) contracts that expire at the end of the year. they might be guys you drafted and signed to one year deals, they might be guys with longer term deals who are expiring.
5. you can re-sign guys, but it costs "Dollas" or "Bones" or "Limbaughs" or whatever name we assign to our monetary system.
6. the number of dollas you get at the beginning of the year depends on your finish - the WORST teams get more, the better teams less. and what you don't spend the previous year carries over.
7. there is a restricted free agent period, and then a free agent draft. during the RFA, you bid with your dollas.
8. your dollas are also used during the season - free agent pick ups cost money. dropping guys before their contract ends costs money. they can be used in trades. it makes you think twice about EVERY move, because if you run out of money, you can't make any more moves, unless you trade a player for dollas.
those are the absolute basics. it is a wonderfully complex system, but one that i think really pauses for caution in who you keep, who you draft, who you sign, who you re-sign, and so on.
if you ask anyone in that league - which is made up of guys we've all played with in one league or another at some point - they'll tell you how rich it is, how complex it is, and how much fun it is.
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| 2 | biliruben
ID: 16105237
Fri, May 28, 2010, 08:52
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I am not optimistic about adding a significant amount of complexity and preparation to this league. We can't even keep a set of rules.
That said, I'd be willing to try a parallel league next year. I think a complete redraft would probably kill this league.
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| 3 | Great One
ID: 594322114
Fri, May 28, 2010, 09:25
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I'd definitely like to see the prospect lists cut down a bit to like 3 prospects. I think so much of these guys are tied up and it would free things up a bit. It seems like every kid that gets called up is already owned by someone. I don't know about all the other stuff. Never really liked auction leagues, the contract stuff sounds intriguing but agree its a lot more to track. Also agree that the teams at the bottom need to learn how to sell off the assets they have in order to better their future without fear of scorn from the league. If a team at the bottom has a closer he should be able to sell that guy off for a 3rd rounder to help him in the future instead of spinning his wheels for another year and getting no value or improvement from that potential trade chip. Thats the point of a keeper league. I am going worst to first in G20 because of doing just that and by targeting injured guys and prospects a year ago. Thats how you turn it around.
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| 4 | PuNk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Fri, May 28, 2010, 10:39
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Tree I believe you are speaking of NBBL as the contract league
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| 5 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 10:57
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ugh. right. you're there Punk. i knew someone else was in that league.
If a team at the bottom has a closer he should be able to sell that guy off for a 3rd rounder to help him in the future instead of spinning his wheels for another year and getting no value or improvement from that potential trade chip. Thats the point of a keeper league. I am going worst to first in G20 because of doing just that and by targeting injured guys and prospects a year ago. Thats how you turn it around.
this.
teams need to learn how to trade. i'll use AF as a point - and i'm not doing this to be harsh or a jerk, but because it's a perfect example.
he in last place. by a wide margin. he's got 4 guys in today's starting line up over 30 (3 of them closer to 40 than 30), 2 of which are dramatically underperforming and 2 of which are kicking some ass. and even one of the underperformers is trade bait.
if i'm a last place team, i am putting those two guys older guys kicking butt and and even the guy underperforming up for sale. i am amassing younger players, i am amassing draft picks. i then work to parlay what i've amassed into another asset, perhaps a top 30 player or something.
a team needs to rebuild, and you have to move your guys at the right time, either when they're super hot, or super cold.
people are so afraid of trading here - GO coming into this league was great if for no other reason than he's not afraid to make moves.
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| 6 | PuNk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Fri, May 28, 2010, 11:12
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It's (NBBL) a system we created that is a little changed from WPFB (Or something around that) that lasted 2-3 seasons on Guru before collapsing.
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| 7 | Great One
ID: 594322114
Fri, May 28, 2010, 11:41
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I do feel we need a more defined constitution that we could post in the first post of each seasons discussion thread. I was curious about prospects. Can I trade them? can I have more than 5 or less? Nothing like 8 add/drops early in the morning! :0 I'm good at finishing first or last, cause I take a lot of gambles that either blow up or work out awesome. Afterall, I am the guy who traded A-Rod for hyped Alex Gordon + Dice-K in G20. Best trade ever :( Seemed like a good idea at the time lol... Yeah, when you get to the point that you know its over for the season you gotta start thinking -- who do I want on my roster at the keeper deadline in 2011. This may seem hypocritical cause I am practically tied for last place but I think my squad has horribly underperformed and is poised for a MAJOR run over the summer. I have begun to re-tool things that needed fixing and feel like I'm almost there. Ryan Howard is next on the block for some major starting pitching.
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| 8 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Fri, May 28, 2010, 13:10
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Tree: i think a huge hole in your idea is how you deal with players acquired via trade.
Tree I think several of your comments made me think I wasn't clear enough in how it would work
There's no hole in the trade situation.
In fact the trades become more interesting because you inherit where the player was drafted the year before from the team you trade with.
Example.
Team A trades Joe Smith who he drafted in the 20th round to Team B for John Doe who he drafted in the 17th round. If you keep either player you inherit the draft position that goes with it.
Then you say "sacrifice draft picks" huh? You get the same number you ave always gotten. You keep seven players. In a 21 round draft you get 14 picks just like before. The only thing that changes is where you pick. Now there are actually 21 true rounds to a draft not the 14 we have. Where you pick in the draft is determined by the player you keep.
If your first round pick was Mark Texiera and you throw him back, you get a pick in the actual first round of a 21 round draft. The 8th round is no longer the first round.
So if 3 teams throw back their 1st round pick, there will be 3 picks in the first round before moving on to the second.
It's not complicated, or even difficult to track, but maybe difficult to wrap your head around at first.
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| 9 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 13:20
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Then you say "sacrifice draft picks" huh? You get the same number you ave always gotten.
but you lose early round picks. i am opposed to a rule that punishes people for making good draft picks or trades or what have you.
i'll say it again - this league is resistant to trade. the people who have been on the bottom and made trades - myself and PD come to mind - are the ones that slowly moved up the ranks.
GO knows he's not winning this year. so he's noodling with his roster and making moves to position himself for the future. he's slowly building talent - the left side of his infield is top notch. two first rounders right there.
the change has to come from within the owners, not by dramatically altering the structure of the league.
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| 10 | Great One
ID: 594322114
Fri, May 28, 2010, 13:38
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Actually I am planning a more immediate worst to first run over the next 3 months. Memorial Day is my real Opening Day. My mid-season adjustments will pave the way to greatness! :) I need a new team name though. GObama wasn't too successful. But yeah, you gotta make moves if it ain't working. Or else you'll your best hope is mediocrity.
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| 11 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 14:00
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GObstopper
GOphasnodirection
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| 12 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Fri, May 28, 2010, 14:41
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but you lose early round picks. i am opposed to a rule that punishes people for making good draft picks or trades or what have you.
Actually you gain early round picks. Currently we have none until the seventh round. You don't "punish" someone for making a good pick, because they have either option. If it is a good pick they will keep the player they aren't losing the pick, they are keeping the pick as a keeper.
If it's a border line they throw him back.
It rewards people who make great late round picks.
I grabbed Aaron Hill off waivers last year, so he would be a last round pick and to keep him I only give up a 18th round pick (21 minus 3)
What about the people you are punishing who made great picks, but he player ends up with a career changing injury?
What about people who make great picks (consensus choice) but for whatever reason the player suddenly and unexpectedly declines in skills?
It's absurd to have a league where a team has 4 first round players in a 14 team league with no inflation for those players. Its lopsided and certain teams have zero chance to start the year because of it. How is that fun? How is that skill?
The team with the 4 first round players on his team starts the year with a huge advantage. That's competitive?
We need a way to bring some balance to the league like he hard core leagues do. This isn't my idea, this is how the expert keeper leagues do it.
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| 13 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Fri, May 28, 2010, 14:45
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From Wikipedia...
One emerging option for a keeper league is the Draft Round Values system. This is a Sabermetric approach for determining the values of players selected in a particular round. The round a player was selected in the previous season is conceded in the upcoming seasons draft when they are elected to be carried over. Tables are provided with these values and a conversion chart that calculates the rounds to be conceded when multiple players from the same round selected as keepers. These tables also work for balancing multiple player trades.
link
There's further discussion here of what to do if for instance you keep your 15th round pick, and then trade for and keep another teams 15th round pick also.
link
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| 14 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Fri, May 28, 2010, 15:20
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but you lose early round picks. i am opposed to a rule that punishes people for making good draft picks or trades or what have you.
Here's another way to show you why your point isn't valid.
Let's say your first 3 round picks are.
1) Pujols
2) Lincecum
3) Ellsbury
Three solid picks. Except Lincecum isn't himself anymore and Ellsbury gets hurt and loses value.
You decide to keep Puljos and throw back Lincy and Ellsbury.
You don't pick in the first round because you already have your first round pick, Pujols. now you pick in the 2nd and 3rd round.
You aren't punished for having made a good pick because you keep him.
Let's say it's
1) Pujols
2) Longoria
3) Cano
Now you like all 3 picks.
You aren't punished, you get to keep them and pick in the 4th round.
What doesn't happen, is one team whose high picks end up really lucky, no injuries, no unexpected declines, begins to stock pile early round choices, while unlucky teams who players are injured lose a 1st round player and is compensated with a 8th round player at best.
Because that's all we ever have, an 8th round player. Hard to dig out of a hole that way and it makes the league far less competitive and less enjoyable for the people down in the hole.
If the managers you say are being punished (they aren't) are so good, they should like the challenge of a more competitive league.
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| 15 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 15:51
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What about the people you are punishing who made great picks, but he player ends up with a career changing injury?
but that's sports. that's not an arbitrary rule put into place.
What about people who make great picks (consensus choice) but for whatever reason the player suddenly and unexpectedly declines in skills?
ditto.
in both those cases, it's technically not a great pick - a great pick is one that works out.
It's absurd to have a league where a team has 4 first round players in a 14 team league with no inflation for those players. Its lopsided and certain teams have zero chance to start the year because of it.
i dispute this notion. how many first rounders does PD have on his team? none. heck, he only has 3 guys that i think would be taken in the first three rounds. Bili has 2 first rounders, but maybe 3 or 4 guys who would be taken in the first four rounds.
they're in first and second place.
GO has 3 to 4 first rounders, and a few more guys who would go in the first two to three rounds. and he's in 13th place. i've got 6 guys who would go in the first few rounds, and i'm in 6th place.
that may not be how it shakes out at the end of the season, but the point is that we have to stop making excuses for poor team management.
again, every player in this league can build a team. some choose to do. some don't. if you don't make deals to improve your team, you're not going to get better.
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| 16 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Fri, May 28, 2010, 16:05
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It sounds a little complicated, but if someone is willing to administer the rules I'm happy to throw my hat into a parallel league.
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| 17 | biliruben
ID: 34435239
Fri, May 28, 2010, 16:31
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I'm all for attempting for rebalance and give the cellar-dwellers hope.
Our current way, it is done through prospects and trades, and only very marginally draft order.
This new way would make the draft significantly more progressive; give those sad-sack conservatives a helping hand they clearly need. ;)
I am not opposed, in theory. In practice, one individual needs to step up and commit the time and patience needed to be the more active commish this style I think would require.
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| 18 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Fri, May 28, 2010, 16:47
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but that's sports. that's not an arbitrary rule put into place.
Definition of Arbitrary:
Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle
just thought you needed help with a term you were misusing.
what is the "arbitrary rule, it's not based on chance, whim, or impulse.
The rule is there for a reason, to keep a league fluid, compensate for injuries, and make the league more competitive ever year rather then having a few managers coast with draft picks that work out.
A skilled manager wouldn't be scared of this change because he would be confident with his skills he would be able to continue to do well.
In sports when you have good players, salaries increase, inflation, THAT is sports.
Since we aren't a salary cap league, we have to compensate in some way, so in this case the inflation is trading the draft pick for where you drafted your keeper.
in both those cases, it's technically not a great pick - a great pick is one that works out.
So if someone drafts Pujols and he has career ending injury, that was not a great pick at the time?
It's like trying to discuss a concept with a brick wall sometimes, I don't know why I bother.
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| 19 | biliruben
ID: 34435239
Fri, May 28, 2010, 17:05
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I think this essentially will give people who are not adept traders another outlet for improving their team.
Let's face it: not everybody trades well. Some of that is personality, some of that is inability to properly value players.
The former will be helped by the proposed change. The later will still be screwed. You need to be able to adequately value players for a given format to do well in fantasy. That or have a whole lotta luck!
Without it you will make bad trades and you will also draft poorly.
But if you simply don't like to trade, or are just crappy and finding a decent compromise, this will allow you to excel without trading.
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| 20 | Tree
ID: 248472317
Fri, May 28, 2010, 17:44
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Determined by chance, whim, or impulse, and not by necessity, reason, or principle
it's impulsive and lazy to me. there's no necessity or principle to me.
A skilled manager wouldn't be scared of this change because he would be confident with his skills he would be able to continue to do well.
it's not about being scared. it's about a rule that rewards owners who can't, won't, or don't know how to trade.
It's like trying to discuss a concept with a brick wall sometimes, I don't know why I bother
and you being a jackass to me because i disagree with you is totally unwarranted.
But if you simply don't like to trade, or are just crappy and finding a decent compromise, this will allow you to excel without trading.
and that is my point. we're rewarding people who don't want to or don't know how, to play the game as its meant to be played.
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| 21 | biliruben
ID: 358252515
Fri, May 28, 2010, 17:55
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That is subjective.
Trading is optional in this league.
This is giving managers another opportunity to show they can
value players, by choosing which ones to keep.
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| 22 | nerveclinic
Leader
ID: 05047110
Sat, May 29, 2010, 13:53
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and you being a jackass to me because i disagree with you is totally unwarranted.
So I am a jackass now? I thought that type of language is no longer allowed here? Hmmm
I'm discussing possible rules changes and you have to say things like it's arbitrary, when it clearly isn't arbitrary at all.
I brought up a format being used in more and more keeper leagues, particularly serious ones, to try to make them competitive and you just went into attack mode calling it lazy and arbitrary.
Trading will not solve all the inequalities.
Talented managers will still be rewarded but it gives others a chance. If they don't draft well they will still be in the cellar and the smart manager will still have the best keepers in the best rounds.
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| 23 | Boldwin
ID: 564353010
Sun, May 30, 2010, 11:36
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Since we are supposedly all about the marketplace of ideas, let's put the legacy league up against a newer, more sophisticated one and see which is more fun over time.
But do we really have the dedication to run one with a phonebook size rigid rulebook? Where is this manager we could all get behind? Where is his alternate?
There is a reason we run this thing so loosely.
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| 24 | nerveclinic
ID: 105222
Mon, May 31, 2010, 16:21
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Baldwin It's a good point but it's not really that complicated (At
least I don't think it is)
Reading further it seems that you lose the draft pick from the
same round as the player you are keeping.
All you have to do is look up the draft online from the year
before to know the place the player you are keeping was
drafted.
That's about the only change except if you keep a traded player
who was drafted in the same round as another player you are
keeping.
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| 25 | Khahan
ID: 13126822
Tue, Jun 01, 2010, 07:29
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I was a bit intrigued by the idea NC, but do have a question even though I'm not in the league:
What happens if you decide to keep a guy you draft in round 10 and also trade for somebody you are going to keep that was drafted in round 10? How does that shake out?
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