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0 Subject: Greece is the word

Posted by: biliruben
- [229341622] Mon, Jul 06, 2015, 09:16

So the Greeks chose short-term upheaval and uncertainty and medium-term hope instead of slow, grinding death of their country and sovereignty under the boot-heal of Deutschland and their other creditors.

Good choice, obviously. It's gonna be a hard slog, but if they had let economic terrorism prevail in deposing their chosen government, democracy in Europe would have been left with a bloody stain.

Personally, I think they should chuck the Euro, start the Drachma printing presses, give the ol' middle finger to their creditors, and get to the hard work of rebuilding their crushed economy.

But I'm not an economist or a diplomat, so maybe France can convince the Deutsche to forgive a significant amount of their, as everyone agrees, unpayable debt and continue to stay with the Euro.

We shall see.
1Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 12:59
Stiglitz and Krugman predictably - If only Greece had been allowed to spend MOAR other people money. That would have fixed it. Just spend your way out of it. Keep shoveling your money this way.

From an athiest and a Keynesian POV it's all heaven sent so there's no one to repay.

From my POV, who would have thot that greedy marxists spending other people's money could solve the bigger problem, greedy globalists swallowing up the world in one undemocratic abusive dictatorship?

Will it happen? Who knows but wouldn't it be fun if two wrongs made a right for once?
2Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 13:12
Al Sharpton is Greece.

Greece was unable to collect 90% of the taxes owed. [in 2011 off the cuff memory]

But they demand subsidies, special unearned benefits and privileges from others.

3Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 15:54
One of my heroes, Nigel Farage says, just look at the example of Iceland. They went deep into crisis. Defaulted. Did none of that 'too big to fail' nonsense. Recovered very quickly.
4Nerveclinic
      ID: 52134819
      Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 16:02

All one sided Bili? No blame for their culpability? Any good communist would at least say they should pay their taxes. They haven't, so of course they are bankrupt.

Your summation of things seems surprisingly simplified and un-nuanced.

And notice this dragged on for years? Why? So the bankers could sell all their Greek bonds, sometimes at top dollar and hand the mess to the average European tax payer.

The bankers once again are laughing all the way to the bank.

It will be more then hard in the short term. The sick without Medicine for example? Or the Europeans will rescue them again. We will see.

And of course aren't we watching what is in store for us down the road?

Is our long term debt any better? They will be raiding our 401k's in the end. I'm not sure why I even save for the future. The King will take all the peasants money in the end.

5biliruben
      ID: 229341622
      Tue, Jul 07, 2015, 18:33
Not one-sided.

They have too generous pensions, given their GDP. But they have already slashed them by 25%

They should certainly pay their taxes. That goes back to when they had Ottoman overloards, and got in the habit.

But I'm a pragmatist. I look to see what is the best of the bad solutions going forward.

They can't be Iceland because they don't have their own currency to devalue. So they should get their own currency back.

You don't have a clue what you are talking about, Baldwin. Ignoring the absolutely unpayable debt (which perhaps they creditors should have thought about before lending), they have been running a budget surplus. And they don't even have a Clinton as Prime Minister. When's the last time a Republican did that?

So yeah, if you want to say their are two sides to lending and borrowing, I completely agree. But where does that get you?

A slow, grinding hopeless future, unless you are willing to tell Merkel to shove her Euros up her fat ass.
6Nerveclinic
      ID: 52134819
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 02:07

Then the collateral damage when Greece tells the European people who now own their debt to shove it, as Spain, Portugal and Italy are not far behind.

And if those much bigger economies, with much larger debts, tell the European people, sorry we also aren't paying you back, that is an economic collapse bigger then 2008.
7biliruben
      ID: 229341622
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 09:01
Sorry, I don't think so. Spain Portugal and Italy aren't in nearly the predicament that Greece is in, and have largely already made and agreed to their deals.

But in the longer-term, that may actually be for the best. Without a central, over-arching European financial body, willing to, in-essence, continue paying the social security checks of Florida retirees, even if their houses are worth a quarter what they paid for them, or some other means of helping nations who's currency is the Euro when things go bad, then the Euro is, I think, a failed experiment.

Because things always go bad.
8Nerveclinic
      ID: 1462789
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 11:14

Yes they have made deals (Other indebted Euro countries) but that doesn't mean they will stick to them. Greece made deals too earlier. They are "breaking" their promises. Now Spain already has an anti-austerity party that made huge, shocking really, inroads in the last election. They have over 25% unemployment. What if the Spanish people see Greece weaseling out of their debt and say you know what, enough for us also. There is no way you can say "this will never happen" it's a kind of revolution.

Also ECB head Mario Draghi, in July 2012 guaranteed, "There is another message I want to tell you today. Within our mandate the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro and believe me: it will be enough." If they let Greece default, and or leave the Euro, we find out that Draghi's words meant absolutely nothing. Those words are what have held bonds of struggling Euro countries in check. The Spanish 10 year was at 1.15% as recently as March because the market believed him, now in just a few months it has doubled to 2.24%

One year chart of Spanish 10 year bonds

Remember the Spanish bonds were almost at 8 % before Draghi's promise. They went on a steady decline since then all the way to Marches 1.15% but now it's headed in the other direction back up which signals the market no longer has confidence in Draghi's promise.

Spain 10 year bond price going back over 5 years

You might have to choose the 5 year tab.

Portugal is even more striking. It was as high as 15% as recently as 2012, again Draghi makes his line in the sand promise and it goes all the way down to 1.56% in March, but in the last few months it's also doubled sitting at 3.13 today.

Portugal 10 year bond

So if Greece says screw you, and refuses to pay, and leaves the Union, then Draghi's 2012 promises become hollow and bond yields will continue to rise in Spain, and Italy and Portugal. If this happens will they be able to continue to pay? Or will the masses also start to protest there, and say if Greece doesn't have to pay, we won't pay either. So then my scenario becomes a very real possibility. This is the only real reason Merkel and the ECB are worried about Greece at this point, this is the crazy aunt in the basement that no one is talking about.

They are also worried because if Greece is allowed to leave the Union, and not pay their debts, and the ECB doesn't back stop those debts, what credibility as a financial structure does the Euro Union have? The investing world will know, that if anything ever goes wrong in a Euro country, they are free to not pay and leave the Union, so it makes the investment quality of Euro bonds plummet going forward and this can only mean high interest rates on bonds in the future which would be a disaster for the economic viability of the weaker EU members.

Of course there is very little open discussion of this even on financial news, (Bloomberg anyway) but this is the real concern about whole Greek mess and the average investor isn't hearing anything about it. (Or that the banks sold all their Greek debt the last 3 years and handed any losses to the average European tax payer)

This should all be a huge discussion in the whole Greek crisis but I only ever hear small bits and pieces here and there and have put this together from these off hand comments. This coming from someone who listens to Bloomberg Surveillance almost every day.




9biliruben
      ID: 105572020
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 12:14
Well, as I said, if the EU doesn't build in some way for struggling countries to right themselves, the the euro is essential doomed. It's just matter of when.

Greece could have been a test case for how to allow a struggling country to recover without the historical method of currency devaluation at their disposal anymore. Instead, I see no recognition from creditors that they are asking the impossible from Greece. For every dollar they squeeze out through their unhinged austerity campaign, they lose 2 dollars of GDP, so austerity actually worsens their debt load. It's a downward spiral. The economists all know this, but the politicians refuse to address it.

So whether it's debt forgiveness or some other method that loosens the noose around the Greek peoples necks, the euro is a failure sooner or later unless they come up with something.
10nerveclinic
      ID: 8832812
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 19:06

I'm not so much argueing what is "right for Greece" as much as I am stating what a serious situation this actually is for the financial markets and most people don't really understand it. They say things like "oh it's a small country" "oh it doesn't really matter much"

All your points about how this is a no win situation for Greece are true. I am talking about the bigger picture. They cannot help a struggling Spain, and Portugal and Italy by just hair cutting the debt…that is too much debt burden to just "write off". This is why it's such a big mess. This is why it's dragging on. Whatever they do for Greece, other member states will be watching, and then they also will be holding the cup out if Greece is once again bailed out. This is the big dilemma almost no one is discussing. They don't really want us to talk about this...

11Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Wed, Jul 08, 2015, 20:43
It's an interesting question if there's some connection between China's free-falling market and the Greek Default. China already had investors buying on borrowed money plugged into a bubble market. China is losing customers as Southern EU hits the skids.

Even more interesting. We've already seen that China has taken hacking to another level and they now have blackmail material on anyone who matters in the USA. But can they shut down the USA economy? Today was a dry run, maybe. At the very least, it was them telling their citizens, "Yeah, well everyone has a run on their market."
12Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Thu, Jul 09, 2015, 10:35
I don't see any way around letting Greece free of the EU and going back to the drachma.

Stiglitz on the other-hand is demanding the USA subsidize his bad advice.
"THE USA MUST SAVE GREECE!"
*Eyeroll*

I've seen us do stupider things so it could happen.
13biliruben
      ID: 105572020
      Mon, Jul 13, 2015, 16:30
Yuck and boo. Nothing worse than a spineless socialist.
14Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 09:36
What has spineless got to do with it?

Do you think my money and your money should go to preserve Greece' position in the EU?

Do you think that is not a bottomless hole?

Because the Keynesian's foremost authority, Stiglitz is throwing his weight into that idea.

I have seen Obama move to reduce the fighting force by 40,000 right before WWIII, but I can't think of any crazy government handout to a foreign country that Obama isn't in favor of.
15biliruben
      ID: 28420307
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 11:14
I'm not talking about that. I'm talking actual things going on in the actual world.

I am upset with Greek leadership caving to Merkel's blackmail.

I don't give a rats-ass about your reaction to Stiglitz. I read a couple pages and it made much more sense than 90% of what I've read in mainstream press, but I didn't get to what you say is his recommendation.
16Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 13:47
1) They didn't cave.

2) Maybe working ridiculously few hours a week, ridiculously few weeks a year, ridiculously few years a lifetime, lounging on the beach and expecting countries where the people actually have a work ethic to provide you with first world lifestyles is a dream that should cave.
17Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 20:51
"If you like your country, you can keep your country."
18biliruben
      ID: 81382416
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 22:24
Maybe you need to recognize the reality that even if Greece had 100 years, they couldn't possibly pay down that debt.

So now you have to figure out what to do in that situation.

Are you the type who, when your neighbor falls behind on their mortgage, you offer to pay him $2/hour to scrub your undies? What would jesus do, mofo.
19Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Tue, Jul 14, 2015, 23:15
Free the slave.
20biliruben
      ID: 28420307
      Wed, Jul 15, 2015, 00:40
Exactly.
21Nerveclinic
      ID: 286461214
      Wed, Jul 15, 2015, 05:25


I think with the bank closing, and running out of money, he had walked up to the edge of the cliff, stared into the abyss, and saw the horror that would be waiting if he really said no. Banks completely out of money, no food on store shelves, no medicine for the sick, no able to pay for basic necessities like electricity, fuel, food. He looked down and saw the chaos that would ensue, rioting in the streets or worse, and he stepped back from the cliff and decided to at least pretend to take their offer rather then jump.

And for that he get's handed what? Another 50, 60 70 billion?

Remember, they still have to actually follow through with their promises. No guarantee they will do it.

22biliruben
      ID: 561162511
      Wed, Jul 15, 2015, 15:19
I think you are right. For all their bluster, it doesn't appear Syriza had ever actually worked through a backup plan as a contingency in case Merkel decided to be completely vicious and cruel, as well as short-sighted for both Greece and the EU.

So when that's exactly what she and her allies decided to do, they had no bargaining power.
23Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Wed, Jul 15, 2015, 21:30
bili

I'm not sure where we disagree exactly.

I am perfectly fine with them leaving the EU, IE becoming free.

I am perfectly fine with corporate financial officers showing responsible due diligence and not loaning shareholder money that will obviously never be paid back. How is that cruel? In my mind anything else would be illegal and irresponsible.

Where do you think these bailout funds should come from?
24Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Sat, Jul 18, 2015, 05:23
Greece represents only a very tiny fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any moment.

There has been so much attention on Greece in recent weeks, but the truth is that Greece represents only a very tiny fraction of an unprecedented global debt bomb which threatens to explode at any moment. As you are about to see, there are 24 nations that are currently facing a full-blown debt crisis, and there are 14 more that are rapidly heading toward one. Right now, the debt to GDP ratio for the entire planet is up to an all-time record high of 286 percent, and globally there is approximately 200 TRILLION dollars of debt on the books. That breaks down to about $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet. And since close to half of the population of the world lives on less than 10 dollars a day, there is no way that all of this debt can ever be repaid. The only “solution” under our current system is to kick the can down the road for as long as we can until this colossal debt pyramid finally collapses in upon itself.

As we are seeing in Greece, you can eventually accumulate so much debt that there is literally no way out. [eventually you can't even pay the interest on your debt let alone stay current or pay it down - B]

According to a new report from the Jubilee Debt Campaign, there are currently 24 countries in the world that are facing a full-blown debt crisis…

Armenia
Belize
Costa Rica
Croatia
Cyprus
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
The Gambia
Greece
Grenada
Ireland
Jamaica
Lebanon
Macedonia
Marshall Islands
Montenegro
Portugal
Spain
Sri Lanka
St Vincent and the Grenadines
Tunisia
Ukraine
Sudan
Zimbabwe

And there are another 14 nations that are right on the verge of one…

Bhutan
Cape Verde
Dominica
Ethiopia
Ghana
Laos
Mauritania
Mongolia
Mozambique
Samoa
Sao Tome e Principe
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda

the truth is that the “wealthy” countries are some of the biggest debt offenders of all. Just consider the United States. Our national debt has more than doubled since 2007, and at this point it has gotten so large that it is mathematically impossible to pay it off.

Europe is in similar shape. Members of the eurozone are trying to cobble together a “bailout package” for Greece, but the truth is that most of them will soon need bailouts too…

All of those countries will come knocking asking for help at some point. The fact is that their Debt to GDP levels have soared since the EU nearly collapsed in 2012.

Spain’s Debt to GDP has risen from 69% to 98%. Italy’s Debt to GDP has risen from 116% to 132%. France’s has risen from 85% to 95%.

In addition to Spain, Italy and France, let us not forget Belgium (106 percent debt to GDP), Ireland (109 debt to GDP) and Portugal (130 debt to GDP).

Once all of these dominoes start falling, the consequences for our massively overleveraged global financial system will be absolutely catastrophic…

Spain has over $1.0 trillion in debt outstanding… and Italy has €2.6 trillion. These bonds are backstopping tens of trillions of Euros’ worth of derivatives trades. A haircut or debt forgiveness for them would trigger systemic failure in Europe.

EU banks as a whole are leveraged at 26-to-1. At these leverage levels, even a 4% drop in asset prices wipes out ALL of your capital. And any haircut of Greek, Spanish, Italian and French debt would be a lot more than 4%.

When you throw all forms of debt into the mix, the overall debt to GDP number for China is rapidly approaching 300 percent.

In Japan, things are even worse. The government debt to GDP ratio in Japan is now up to an astounding 230 percent. That number has gotten so high that it is hard to believe that it could possibly be true. At some point an implosion is coming in Japan which is going to shock the world.

Of course the same thing could be said about the entire planet. Yes, national governments and central banks have been attempting to kick the can down the road for as long as possible, but everyone knows that this is not going to end well.

And when things do really start falling apart, it will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before.

No major nation in the West can repay its debts. The same is true for Japan and most of the emerging markets. Europe is a failed experiment for socialism and deficit spending. China is a massive bubble, in terms of its stock markets, property markets and shadow banking system. Japan is also a basket case and the U.S. is the most indebted country in the world and has lived above its means for over 50 years.

So we will see twin $200 trillion debt and $1.5 quadrillion derivatives implosions. That will lead to the most historic wealth destruction ever in global stock, with bond and property markets declining at least 75 – 95 percent. World trade will also contract dramatically and we will see massive hardship across the globe.
Pay no attention to the doomer in the corner.

All is well.

Move along.

Nothing to see here.

[Of course the 'big thinkers', the Bilderbergers and Roundtable elites, the central bankers are clear and united in purpose as to why this should happen. They hate the nation state and insist that institution dies and gets replaced by their global dictatorship. They need the world system to collapse to realize their plans]
25Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Mon, Jul 20, 2015, 00:17
I don't buy this as the whole story but I find it enormously entertaining.

Why the Euro? Reagan/Thatcher and the originator of supply side economics
The idea that the euro has “failed” is dangerously naive. The euro is doing exactly what its progenitor – and the wealthy 1%-ers who adopted it – predicted and planned for it to do.

For him, the euro wasn’t about turning Europe into a powerful, unified economic unit. It was about Reagan and Thatcher.

And when crises arise, economically disarmed nations have little to do but wipe away government regulations wholesale, privatize state industries en masse, slash taxes and send the European welfare state down the drain.

Far from failing, the euro, which was Mundell’s baby, has succeeded probably beyond its progenitor’s wildest dreams.
Also this gem..."when the Euro doubled in value a couple of years ago, Greece’s debt doubled in real terms. That’s when Greek really started sliding towards crisis."

And this gem from my hero Nigel Farage..."Greek people never voted to enter the euro … it was forced upon them by Goldman Sachs and their politicians."
26Boldwin
      ID: 49572022
      Wed, Aug 05, 2015, 12:05
Good news in Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Surprise! Prolly some useful lessons in there. Worth watching.
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