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Subject: SSHR - 1355
Posted by: Madman
- [21020124] Wed, Apr 03, 2002, 01:49
First off, the AUCTION is now updated! It's live-time now, so you can get instant feedback regarding how you are doing.
I just placed a proxy bid on 3914 -- an unraced thoroughbred 2 year old (Black Tie Affair x El Gran Senor). I doubt I'll end up with the horse, but oh well. My bid is standing at $4,901,002, IIRC. Which means the previous bidder stopped at $4,901,001. Not gonna publish what my bid was, although it wasn't extravagant, I didn't think.
However, I will say that I have limited funds in that stable. Now I'm regretting not pursuing betting more heavily. AARGHAARGHAARGH. |
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| 50 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Fri, Apr 05, 2002, 23:32
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:) Thanks. It looks like I am free from the Jodie's Halo kid.
Honestly, I almost wouldn't mind picking up Black Tie Senor. I mean, it is $6 million. But that's just 9 months worth of betting. Not like I'm going to do anything else with my money -- you know?
Glad I didn't waste $1,406,002 on Kurt whatever his name was, however.
If you're going to splurge, get the best. :)
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| 51 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 282223017
Fri, Apr 05, 2002, 23:50
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I agree Madman. Black Tie looks good, but that other one? You could easily breed that one. No reason to spend $$.
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| 52 | cab
Donor
ID: 931514
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 00:10
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I see that Foxon(GSR)agrees with you on race 3015, Madman...He has posted some good tips in the last few weeks, although he did miss out last week..
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| 53 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 01:06
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I see Lordpye likes my Full Honours at 10/1 in ther 2-year-old race Michigan 2101. Sure hope he's right, as it would be nice to have a 2-year-old that didn't take 8 months to snag a win.
Toral
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| 54 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 02:19
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Toral -- you gotta like a 2 year old that can go 60+ speed already. However, my experience -- for whatever reason -- has been that the second performance for a 2 year old is almost always worse than the first. Go figure.
At any rate, he should place ITM for you, at least. 2 year old races are a pain to predict; but getting a faster horse is a tough thing to do.
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| 55 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 04:15
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OK, I boxed a trifecta and exacta on the 3 horses along with wins on them all. Hoping for a big payout :)
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| 56 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 09:29
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Well, rotciv stables is now official in big trouble. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Technically, it should have $332K available after the auction closes.
The problem is that I levied a $300K bet on #5 in that race, a $240K bet on #7 and another bet on #1.
The big problem is that I did them in that order, and I am predicting that #7 will win. Will the program take the bets in order? If so, it will register the losing $300K bet FIRST, meaning it will be accepted and I'll lose that cash!!!!
Here's hoping that if you place more bets (total) than your bankroll that it doesn't let ANY of them go through.
Actually, the best would be if there is a programming glitch and the bets would be allowed to go through only if you won money . . . We shall see.
Black Tie Senor better win the freaking derby next year . . . So much for the idea that there are just hundreds of stables with tens of millions in cash just dying to be spent, eh?
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| 57 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 10:47
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Thanx for the betting tips. I'm behind, so I started with Madman 25. Beyer wrote a lot about efficient betting potential in races like this...but unfortunately I don't remember it. The exactas might be a good idea but I fear the 1 sneaking in to what should be a 7-5 or 5-7 so I'm avoiding it.
Simple bet --
$100 K #7 to win.
$20 K #5 to win. (Simple saver. If the 5 wins the day is essentially a wash).
Not saying this is most efficient bet -- probably not.
BTW who mocks finding these bets and sharing them?
I've only had one +$500K day, on a Hannibal tip on a two-mile race. Looking for another (well-near $500K, I have to substitute the $20K saver)today.
Toral
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| 58 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 10:50
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Cab No possible way it could be construed as cheating. You're risking big cash on your assessment of the race.
Toral
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| 59 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:05
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I have a question on betting. When you look at the entry box their are 12 boxes across for win, place, show. Say I want to box a 7-5 exacta. Do I enter 7win/5place in column one, and then 5win/7place in column 2? or do I have to enter them separately? I never quite know what will happen if I enter multiple #'s for a bet. For example, What would this bet be: column1 7win; column2 5place, column2 1place. Does that mean I have bet on two exactas 7-5 and 7-1? or does it mean I have bet 7-5 exacta and 5 to place? very confusing to me.
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| 60 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:24
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1. To box a 7-5 exacta enter 7 and 5 in row 1, and 7 and 5 (in any order, 5 then 7 is fine) in row 2. (As I use it, rows go across and columns down)
2. If I understand your 2nd question right (you say by column what I mean by row) you have placed two bets, 7-1 exacta and 7-5 exacta. IOW if there's anything in the win row, a number in the second row creates an exactor bet (or a trifector if something is entered in the third row as well).
Toral
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| 61 | cab
Donor
ID: 43315611
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:29
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If you place 5 and 7 in row one(1st) and 5 and 7 in row 2(2nd) that will box it STL...For a $2 bet it will cost you $4(ie:2 x $2 exacta bets)...Actually, do you need to box 2 horses for an exacta?...We have quinellas here in NZ,which are basically the same thing, except the 2 horses can finish in any order...
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| 62 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:36
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You don't need to box exactors; you can just bet straight up (e.g. 7/5).
There are quinellas in N.A. here too. I think the quinella actually preceded the exacta, but not sure. The effect is the same as a boxed exacta, except that 1) you only need to spend $2; and 2) the pool is separate. The wise guys sometimes spend time comparing quinella and exactor payouts (arbitrage).
There used to be (prob still are) silly rules made by some Racing Commissions limiting the number of exotic bets a track could offer. In some jurisdictions, the tracks ditched the quinella to add the trifecta, Pick Three, Pick Six, Superfecta (4 horses) or whatever else, so you don't see the quinella everywhere now.
Toral
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| 63 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:37
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I do mean rows going across and columns going down. I could be in a heap of trouble. I tried to box a trifecta and put all 6 combinations possible. For example:
1,1,2,2,3,3
2,3,1,3,1,2
3,2,3,1,2,1
I wonder what I really bet?
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| 64 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:38
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You boxed a 1-2-3 trifecta.
Same effect by just entering 1, 2 and 3 in all rows.
Toral
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| 65 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:39
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From the instructions:
"ENTERING THE SAME HORSE MULTIPLE TIMES IN THE SAME ROW WILL STILL ONLY RESULT IN ONE BET, NOT MULTIPLE BETS!"
Toral
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| 66 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:40
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So I could have just done:
1,2,3
1,2,3
1,2,3
????
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| 67 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:41
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Yep.
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| 68 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:43
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Ok thanks. So I guess I still scewed up when I also went:
5,7,7,5,1
7,5
I wanted to box the exacta and also bet 7,5,and 1 to win
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| 69 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:44
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You bet 4 exactas, 5-7, 7-5, 1-7 and 1-5.
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| 70 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:45
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To bet 1, 5 and 7 to win enter 1, 5, and 7 in row one and nothing in row 2.
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| 71 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:48
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Thanks guys. I think I have it figured out now. Hopefully that race pays off. I wouldn't mind getting a few million $$ to buy a horse myself!
Wish the races were up already, I have a bunch running.
I'm surprised there is no Daily Double to bet on!
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| 72 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 11:52
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This is a week of low-odds horses for me. 4 favorites plus two 3/1s and a 7/2 from 11 entrants.
Weeks with odds like this have *always* been disastrous for me in the past, and I expect nothing different this week. From past experience, I can safely project: 1 win, from one of my 7-1 or 8-1 shots.
Toral
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| 73 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:05
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Toral - I've often wondered if there is an "owner" variable as well. Seems that some weeks all my horses run well under what I would expect when other weeks they run well over my projections. Seems my best odds weeks are often my worst fot ITM finishes.
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| 74 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:14
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Hmm...but could an owner available apply to 4 or more different stables?
I'm beginning to supsect I run my horses too hard -- 4 and up, I train them to run 2 weeks apart (if they come up RTG or Sharp!) and always run them when sharp when there's a race available. Some trainers like Hannibal look at fitness more closely and like to give breaks or run <100% preps every once in a while. Hannibal says other trainers scoff at this, so I don't know...but I'm thinking about it. Napkin Kicking at least is scheduled for a "prep" next time out. To build stamina -- set the horse to run way off the lead and go 100% at a longer distance than he likes. Rough approximation of a workout regimen to build stamina. Will it work? No idea.
Toral
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| 75 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:21
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Woo Hoo!!! Look at race 7113 for some real excitement!
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| 76 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:26
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Exciting? Don't think so. that Sixth Deputy guy, whoever he is, just blew away the field ;)
Toral
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| 77 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:33
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Could this be the new Iron Horse? Has a great shot in the turf sprint in the next leg. That 14f though just might kill this old guy! Then he'll be on even ground with the rest of my ponies, LOL.
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| 78 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:39
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Oh thank you, you lovable plug you. I was about to give up the sport. Race of the day: 1355.2101!
Toral
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| 79 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 12:58
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Crazy week! Congrats, Toral, on your newbie's run.
Out of 10 starts, I had 6 second places finishes. No wins, no thirds. Just seconds. Very frustrating.
Brown Bro ended her low-tag starter career with a career best 88 speed over 13f on dirt. Hmmm . . . dang. Going to make it hard to slip her through claimers next race.
Skin Jumping got me my 100+ speed for the week, sneaking in at 101.8.
Red Summer one of my prized homebreds, couldn't even break 50 this go around. See, Toral, what I'm talking about here? Second race ISSSS slower! Extremely frustrating.
Paul's Beats even ran slower and finished 2nd. I thought he was a lock to win for sure.
Val's Desert quit his 100+ speed string and finished second. AAAAAAAAAAARGGGGH. You get the picture.
On the sad side, Sal at the Bell really tanked it up in his allowance race. Somehow, he has suddenly gone sour. Going to move him away from Nebraska, give him 3 weeks rest, and run him at 10 or 11f.
Toral -- I think you are on to something with the every 2 week thing. My horses who are on that cycle (Sal at the Bell) seem to stagnate after a bit. They bounce back if I give them 3 weeks off occassionally. But they need that occassional break, it seems. Not sure you need a prep race -- that seems like a waste. But a change in distance and a change in rest seems warranted often-times.
See King North for another example just from this week. On the flip side of the argument is a horse like Skin Jumping who ran well after 2 weeks rest for the 4th race in a row. As long as the horse is "hot", I don't think this is a problem. But if the horse is off his game, maybe prep races or extra rest is a way to go. Because I'm becoming convinced that horses go through cycles in this game.
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| 80 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 13:02
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BTW, that Sixth Deputy speed rating is a new Gurupie record, I think. 112.9. WOW.
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| 81 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 13:18
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Holy excrement, Toral, have you seen your record this week! Wow. Congrats. Ap Fappi also won, BTW, meaning you had two break their maidens today. If you're not in the lead in division 2 in GSR, then there is a real problem . . .
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| 82 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 13:21
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And to think I was going to give Sixth Deputy a month long layoff thinking he was tired! Two weeks ago he was a little groggy coming off a terrible race and I thought he needed rest. He came up sharp without being trained and I thought what the heck, throw him to the wolves in the Iron Man and maybe I could at least have a shot at a lottery ticket for that royal 2yo.
Looking at the way my 2yo's ran this week, I wonder why even bother? In MO we had a 2yo series. My 2 fillies entered in a 20 horse race for fillies came in 17 and 20. LOL! They were trounced by bargain breeds even and all were first time runners!
Ally's Logic ran his first race race this year coming off his injury. Came in 3d at RTG so that is good news.
Rich Wine smoked the field in her race. She is only a few races out from a long injury, so maybe injuries don't really negatively impact horses.
Nice run for Full Honours Toral and a nicer payout!
At least 1 or 2 of my stables will cash in on the 7-5 exacta in race 3015. Thanks.
Had several shows a few places and only 2 wins, but I'll take it. More horses to claimers in the future and I'm going to start rotating claimers the best I can. Very dissapointed in my 2yo's but time will tell with them.
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| 83 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 13:31
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OK, I can stop whining. Finally had my week -- 5 wins in eleven races. That's a month's quota for me recently. This is a week where I actually needed to download the raceout right away to check the speeds and see what the future should bring -- cause my young horses stepped up today. (BTW, the course Madman suggested -- downloading Mike's original raceout and editing it -- worked fine. There was some problem with Supertoy's version of 1348, as discussed on the MB. Supertoy's 1355 works fine.)
Full Honours won, putting up a weak speed of 58. She was only RTG though.Nearly getting caught at 4.5 suggests that she will be just a sprinter, as she was bred. But hopefully she can make some hay.
A P Fappi did indeed win his MSW, after two seconds at that level. Speed of 84, giving him 76-78-84. Son of Admiral Indy (cheapie son of A P Indy) so expectations limited. He seems to be a six-furlong guy. Winners of AN1X allowances, next rung up, were running 90 and 91 today, so he will need to continue to improve.
Nail Endangering, 3-year-old. won her first allowance today, a pricey $36.6 one but in a weak field, running only a 71. Need to find more weak fields, I guess.
Gold River finally won his N2X. Only a 94 though. Think will be used in breeding, with a turfy sire.
Idea Sal blew away the field in his first claimer, running an 86. No doubt I will lose him, but except for one 93, 86 has been his top, so I can live with it.
Disappointments from Napkin Kicking and Dan's Forest, along with Ernie Disorder, who I put in a claimer. I am going to try the stamina-building exercise with Napkin Kicking, though. He must get some stamina somehow, or his career will soon be over.
Toral
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| 84 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 14:02
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I just realized that Rich Wine ran a 104.9 in her 6.5f win. Hopefully she'll be my next Hero Grub!
As far as rest, I do think it depends on the horse. Hero Grub had consecutive 100+ races and I thought I would give her an extra week. Ran her at one of her favorite distances and she ran much slower. Was it the extra week of rest? I'm going back to running her every 2 weeks.
To build stamina, I have decided to use a slow approach. Increment at .5 or 1 increments. One approach I'm trying is to increase .5 for two weeks and then back off .5 the next week. Another approach is too increase (beyond expected preference) only once every few weeks. I think try to jump from 8f to 12f in one hop is a big mistake.
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| 85 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 14:07
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In case you're wondering about start% this week for Sixth Deputy, I went back to jockey select. He started out a 54%.
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| 86 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 19:52
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A little quick breeding for toral6. Last DS for The Minstrel, last DDS for Conquistador cielo, so
RUSTY SCABBARD NOW
Valid Expectations x The Minstrel x Conquistador Cielo.
385 points I think. Only need to blow another 365 in this stable.
Toral
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| 87 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 20:05
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How can you breed, my stables haven't even been updated yet. Crazy updating message has been flashing all afternoon. I log and and check later and same thing.
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| 88 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 20:08
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My stables haven't been updated either but breeding goes ahead anyway, apparently. I've been waiting for the claim results all day.
Toral
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| 89 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 20:10
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For some reason I thought you couldn't breed during an update, but I guess I'm wrong. I know I can't change my riding options right now.
Does it normally take this long? Seems like the thing is stuck.
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| 90 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sat, Apr 06, 2002, 20:10
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You can always submit breedings. If you are trying to breed over a horse you don't have, then you simply don't lose the breeding points.
Like you guys, I've been dreading stable updates all day. I way that new 2 year old, but I'm am VERY worried about how much cash I'm going to have in rotciv stables . . . Plus, I have a feeling I got killed on claimers this week.
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| 91 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 00:36
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STABLE UPDATES just happened . . .
The deal with rotciv was the worst-case scenario -- the losing $300K bet was processed first. I took a last minute gamble and put $27,500 on #7 in that same race. I figured I would have about $30K in the stable by that time, so this was a MAJOR bet. Of course, it paid off, and I'm up to $180K. Geeeez.
Otherwise, I lost Paul's Beats as expected. I also did NOT win a single horse in claiming. AAARGH. This is getting ridiculous. I haven't been able to get a decent claimer since I don't know when. Pretty soon, the only two horses I'll have eligible for starters are my own discount breeders.
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| 92 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 00:42
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BTW, we engaged in major over-kill with that bet, cab. Going to have to go back and figure out where the calcs went wrong.
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| 93 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 01:03
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The Gurupie stable picked up 2 horses in claimers. Velvet Afternoon and Groom Race. Not sure what I was looking at in that first one, IIRC it was something he did as a 2yo way back when. Groom Race on the other hand is King of Kings (ire) x Blushing groom(fr). Looking at breeding with him to finish off the breeding pts.
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| 94 | StLCards
Sustainer
ID: 5232363
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 01:16
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2 injured horses in my stlcards1 stable. bummer.
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| 95 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 01:37
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5 wins from 11 races..Wow...A training coup!..Congrats
LOL...Yes we did Madman...I know where the flaw is though....The winner was at "supposed" odds of 5/1...The odds on the result page say odds of $5.60 or 11/2...I am now convinced that you get your betting stake back if you win(which is included in the payout($13.30 in this case)...For some reason the payout is nearly always more than the actual odds...I don't really know how that can be fixed because with that formula you can only work with the odds you have in front of you(unless you "guess" to a certain extent)...
Great run by Sixth Deputy STL...A stakes run in the offering after the Ironman series is over perhaps?...
Only 2 winners and a few places for me today...
Craw Chop continued his run of good form by winning a 10f starter...He's turning into a handy claim..
Mr Bert broke his maiden in a claim race..
A couple of other notable performances:
Bee stacking ran a 106 in a stakes race at WA,grabbing second place...I really thought he was overmatched in this race and didn't really want to enter him but there were no other suitable races...I really must try him past 9.5f sometime...
Parade Shooting ran second in a 16f event posting a 95sp...
Overall 15 races...2w/3p/1s
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| 96 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 03:11
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Cab I think the method also double-counts the actual amount bet. Thus, a revised estimate would be . . .
5 is at 4/1=> 5/1
7 is at 5/1 => 6/1
1 is at 12/1 => 13/1
Bet A (BxC) = 78 x 5 => return of $390 if win.
Bet B (AxC) = 65 x 6 => return of $390 if win.
Bet C (AxB) = 30 x 13 => return of $390 if win.
Total bet: 173.
Total profit: 217.
To turn the $217 profit into $500,000, multiply bets by $500,000/217 = 2304.
WHICH implies . . .
Bet A = $179,712
Bet B = $149,760
Bet C = $69,120
----------------
$398,592
Or, $240K less than what we outlayed :)
To check . . . Bet B ended up winning . . . at $13.30 for a $2 bet, total bet returned would have been $995,904. Given our almost $400,000 in outlays, however, this means we would have turned a net profit of about $595,000 . . .
HOWEVER, as you noted, odds of 5/1 simply mean that the PAYOUT for a $2 bet will be at least $12.00, but less than $14.00 (which would be 6/1).
THEREFORE, worse case scenario would have been that we got a $12.00 payout for a $2 bet. Which would mean that Bet B would have returned $898,560.
Given our outlays in betting $ of $398,592, this means we would almost EXACTLY have won our mandatory $500K!!!!!!!!!
----------------------------
SUMMARY
There were two things we were missing. First, use the total RETURN on a $1 bet in the first stage of the calculation -- not the odds. The 4/1 odds simply means a $4 profit for a $1 outlay. Since we would also get our money back, we need to change that to 5/1.
Second, the stated odds are the MINIMUM guaranteed return. This is the part that you noted.
NOW, LET'S HOPE THERE'S ANOTHER BET LIKE THIS NEXT WEEK!!!!! :)
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| 97 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 06:56
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That first line should've read:
Congrats Toral!
In respect to the stamina building exercise...I don't know if this is significant but after i gave up on Clam in stakes races i started running him in starter allowances,anything from 8f-14f...He was getting itm finishes most of the time so it was okay...His sp numbers were down however...After that sequence of races(about 6 or so) i bought him back to sprint/short routes and he has thrived,going 97(1st,6.5f),102(2nd,7.5f)and 107(1st,8f)in his last 3 starts...It may be just a coincidence and he has decided that he will step up another level? or maybe those longer races have helped?
That's looking a lot better Madman...If those numbers were rounded off to compensate for the dollar or so extra it pays(179712 to 175k for eg)it would be close enough for me :)
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| 98 | Madman
ID: 35316313
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 12:35
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cab if those longer races were the reason he was doing better, what happened in 1243?
My guess is that a) he's improving because of age/experience, and b) 1341.4415 may have been a good race for him, anyway (i.e., got a good roll of the dice that day).
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| 99 | cab
Donor
ID: 10318622
Sun, Apr 07, 2002, 13:51
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He never had enough gas?...I honestly don't know...At that particular time in his career , it was the second fastest time he had run though...I'm not saying it's any great training feat...Maybe it was!(inadvertantly)....It may be pure coincidence or like you say , it is age/experience/luck or whatever...At the time , i put him in those races because there were easy bp's to be had(for the most part)...It could be that , it is the form cycle rolling around?(if there is such a thing)...
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