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Subject: Rotoguru I "Play Ball"
Posted by: Shelby-villian
- [111412312] Tue, Apr 30, 2002, 02:00
A thread to put in the 411 regarding our league
and any cool games that are worth posting. |
| Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well. |
| 50 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Mon, May 06, 2002, 15:43
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Yeah, that'll probably be my only move unless things turn sour in the 2nd half.
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| 51 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Tue, May 07, 2002, 10:36
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SV:
Salt on the wound time. Your team is very good, but frustrated with management. And now, the Dodgers are coming to town with the one-two punch of Oswalt and PJ ... I pity the fool.
-ESB
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| 52 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Tue, May 07, 2002, 11:27
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I needed a Bullpen change. Way too many blown saves.
Wood is out, Jensen is the 5th starter after a few good long reliefs. B.H. Kim is the new addition.
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| 53 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Tue, May 07, 2002, 11:52
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Erik- my team is a bunch of overpaid
crybabies. Enough said.
What's with those +2 arms, I'm going to run
you out of town.
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| 54 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Tue, May 07, 2002, 11:59
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Hey SV:
My team plays error free. And besides, who needs -1 or -2 arms when you have PJ pitching ...
-ESB
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| 55 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Tue, May 07, 2002, 12:07
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Who's PJ?
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| 56 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Tue, May 07, 2002, 12:19
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td- I think he is referring to Mark *P* *J*ohnson
but he's a 1B. Just nod your head and smile at
the crazy manager. =)
Actually, PJ=Pedro...
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| 57 | PP AT WORK
ID: 12322119
Tue, May 07, 2002, 18:07
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my team sucks =0
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| 58 | Bernie H.
ID: 19852422
Wed, May 08, 2002, 02:07
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Maniac - how's the view from 2nd place?
Methinks "Maniac Smallball" might be a little too small for the big Impaler juggernaut?
:)
but MAN, did you see the hit I took on the injury front? My entire lineup is down; I've never seen anything like it.
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| 59 | Mariomaniac
ID: 541113011
Wed, May 08, 2002, 07:20
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Smallball got real small. Might be too small for the park I'm in. 6-9 at home makes the fans a bit restless.
Can't believe I got whipped in Game 3 with Berkman and Drew injured and on your bench. Somebody check those dice!
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| 60 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Wed, May 08, 2002, 08:08
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Allready feeling the positive change... 2-1 on the road against the strong Hunters, with the loss being a 1-0 pitching duo.
But maybe even more imprtant, 5 total shutout innings by the bullpen, and 1st save for Kim.
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| 61 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:23
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ESB- I pity the fool who starts Oswalt and
Pedro and watches them get shallacked for
12 runs in 12 innings. I would have swept you
but Foulke blows another 2 saves.
Central is the best division with all four teams
with positive RS/RA.
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| 62 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:28
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SV:
You got lucky, son. Pedro will give up seven runs in a start 2-3 times per season, max. Count your lucky stars ...
-ESB
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| 63 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:32
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Ugh, just checking the stats for the last 8 games for the Maniacs:
W-L: 1-7
Runs For/Against: 20-45
Batting Average: 49-255 0.192
Not going to win to many games with that kind of dice rolling. It's a long season, hopefully we can turn it around soon.
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| 64 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Wed, May 08, 2002, 11:41
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ESB-
Thanks for the insight. While I count my lucky
stars (46...47...48...), I suggest next time you
visit the central division, you talk less talk and
walk more walk. =O
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| 65 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Thu, May 09, 2002, 09:04
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Bernie - Can't stand having first place all to yourself, eh? Time to do some Impaling TONIGHT!
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| 66 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Thu, May 09, 2002, 10:51
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SV:
Are you ready for Round II? Pedro and Oswalt are a little fiesty after our last series ... The Dogdgers are healthy, leading the league in scoring and waiting for you.
-ESB
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| 67 | Bernie H.
ID: 395452711
Thu, May 09, 2002, 10:56
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Figures that with my entire lineup out, I get 2-hit in my first game and got nearly shutout again in the second game. I scored a completely useless run in the bottom of the 10th, down by 5 runs, to escape the 2nd consecutive shutout.
This could get ugly.
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| 68 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Thu, May 09, 2002, 16:06
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Erik, time for some revenge after that whuppin'
eh? Tell you what- since I feel a bit bad for you,
I'll sit both Cruz Jr. and McGwire for our series.
Sound fair?
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| 69 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Thu, May 09, 2002, 17:01
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Finnaly, back home. 15 straight starting today in Dodger Stadium, where I'm allready 7-2.
Erik, the probable starters is a very nice addition. Another step forward.
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| 70 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Thu, May 09, 2002, 17:59
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TD:
That's all Bernie. He's the Strat-O-Master.
-ESB
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| 71 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Thu, May 09, 2002, 18:05
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Gotta thank Bernie for adding on the clutch
and ballpark ratings which are very important
in trying to setup your lineup. Also helped me
make some key free agent signings.
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| 72 | Mariomaniac
ID: 541113011
Thu, May 09, 2002, 19:48
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Ditto on the thanks, Bernie. Although it will come back to haunt you this evening with my newly revamped lineup.
SV, I was looking at Conine and Ducey, too. Nice pickups. Couldn't find the right spot for them on my team, but I did add Millar and Segui. I'm hoping that will add enough production to my lineup. Couldn't believe the number of "chokers" I had on the roster!
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| 73 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Thu, May 09, 2002, 20:32
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Maniacs- Segui is pretty nice but I was scared
off by his injury potential as an everyday player.
Is Conine clutch or what- on a roll of 7,7,9,12
and some A+ dps which work well with my
speed.
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| 74 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Fri, May 10, 2002, 09:15
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Dateline-Miller Park
The Maniacs returned to there winning ways in a BIG way, sweeping the Grammercy Impalers in dominating fashion to reclaim first place in the West Division.
The newest Maniacs were stellar in their debut, with Segui, Millar and Menechino combining to go 12-34, with 9 runs scored and 10 RBI in the series. Bargain pickup Doug Davis outdueled Impaler ace Javier Vasquez in the final game, winning 9-1.
The double play duo of Cabrera and Vina contributed in all phases of the game, combining for 8 hits, 7 runs, 4 RBI and 4 double plays in the series.
The Maniacs look to improve upon their 12-3 road record at Veterans Stadium against the Pembroke Reys.
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| 75 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Fri, May 10, 2002, 09:40
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Many of the fielding and manager stats look like they may have rolled over to zero after 30 games, like squeezes, H&Rs, putouts, assists, gdp, etc.
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| 76 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Fri, May 10, 2002, 09:51
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I caught that too. I was looking for caught stealing percentages and they seem correct but the others are definitely off.
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| 77 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Fri, May 10, 2002, 10:56
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Anyone at TSN explain what this is about:
"We've discovered some technical errors in
last night's simulation, and we're working on
fixing them. Until then, games 31-33 are NOT
official and are subject to replay. We apologize
for the inconvenience."
Thanks in advance.
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| 78 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Fri, May 10, 2002, 11:00
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Uh oh. I can see it now. They replay the games and Sosa hits 4 moe runs for me and you guys are gonna insit on an asterik next to his name when he hits 74 this year and wins the triple crown.
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| 79 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Fri, May 10, 2002, 11:04
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they can't be taking back Sabathia's 1 hitter... damn...
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| 80 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Fri, May 10, 2002, 11:15
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Uh oh...looks lke the game have been erased from the opening page.
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| 81 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Fri, May 10, 2002, 11:23
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Hmmmm well you got Mussinas 4 hitter back apparently.
I should probably stop hitting reload and just let them work these things out.
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| 82 | Bernie H.
ID: 395452711
Fri, May 10, 2002, 12:08
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Sorry about the confusion, folks. Just a temporary glitch. We had to put up that "subject to replay" message just as a precaution in case something went wrong, but nothing to worry about. We're all good.
Bernie, TSN
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| 83 | MikeJ
ID: 593113011
Fri, May 10, 2002, 12:57
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Hey Bernie, are you sure you're all good? I had 3 guys get hurt for 2, 4, and 8 games, all in the same game (#33). Two of those guys have injuries on a 2, the other on a 3. I understand there are statistical quirks, but the odds against this are astronomical.
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| 84 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Fri, May 10, 2002, 13:29
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MikeJ- recreating randomness on a computer
is *extremely* hard to do, especially when the
variable happens to be 6 numbers which are
simulated hundreds of thousands of times
within a season. The strat-o-matic engine
probably uses an inferior random generator
which shows "patterns" after such repeated
use.
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| 85 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Fri, May 10, 2002, 13:40
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the odds for injury go like this:
odds of a player being injured with a 2: 1 in 216
over 4 at bats, odds of same player being injured: 1 in 54
odds of a player being injured with a 3: 1 in 108
over 4 at bats, odds of same player being injured:
1 in 27
odds of three players being injured, two with a 2 and one with a 3, in the same game: 1 in 78732 (54*54*27)
Pretty slim, but not quite astronomical
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| 86 | MikeJ
ID: 593113011
Fri, May 10, 2002, 14:35
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Don't think that's quite right, Shelby, because I don't think you can divide the 1/216 by 4- that's the gambler's fallacy - i.e., the odds of rolling a single 6 on a 6-sided die do not increase just because you haven't rolled one in 1, 5, 10, 200, or however many rolls. The odds can only be calculated for each individual roll, not changed over any set number of rolls. The math you are using would indicate that over 216 at bats, there is a 100% chance of getting injured, or that in any six rolls of a single 6-sided die, there is a 100% chance of rolling a 6.
I could be wrong, and maybe someone with a much stronger backround in statistics can give a definitive explanation.
And I'm not whining about this, I only raise the issue because Bernie mentioned potential technical glitches from last night.
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| 87 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Fri, May 10, 2002, 14:45
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Also you would have to take into account that it could be any 3 out of 9 possible batters. Not that Im trying to make the situation more confusing. :)
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| 88 | Bernie H.
ID: 395452711
Fri, May 10, 2002, 15:10
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Last night's issues had no effect on the actual outcome of the games. I've played Strat baseball for a long time - I've seen that injury situation plenty of times.
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| 89 | Toral
Sustainer
ID: 2111201313
Fri, May 10, 2002, 15:20
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Likewise, having played Strat a long time -- with dice -- odd things like that injury situation happen all the time (if you get 3 15-game injuries, questions and complaints will be accepted) . There are so many different extremely unlikely things (whether it be multiple injuries, no-hitters, 25-run games, Bob Locker balking 3 times in one inning) that some kind of extremely unlikely thing happens -- well, quite often.
Toral
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| 90 | MikeJ
ID: 593113011
Fri, May 10, 2002, 15:25
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No prob. As long as the glitches had no effect in this area, its cool by me. I just wanted to cover my bases.
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| 91 | MikeJ
ID: 593113011
Fri, May 10, 2002, 15:45
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Sorry, previous post should have been directed to Mario, not Shelby.
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| 92 | Erik B.
ID: 239592612
Fri, May 10, 2002, 16:12
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SV:
May I trash talk to you now that I took our series 2-1? Or will you need another whoopin' before you give the Dodgers their proper respect?
-ESB
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| 93 | Mariomaniac
ID: 1143418
Fri, May 10, 2002, 16:29
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Another odd occurrence: $8.88M Javier Vasquez getting shelled for 9 runs in one game while $0.76M starter Doug Davis holds the opposition to one run in a complete game win. I just can't see that ever happening in reality.
Strat-o-matic is a great game, but I always thought the 50-50 split between hitter & batter outcomes was lacking. It seems to give great pitchers too much of a chance to be shelled.
Anybody ever play the old Avalon Hill baseball game? They were too basic with righty-lefty splits, but I always liked the control rating they used to determine pitcher-hitter outcomes. Each pitcher had a control rating from 5 to 9. The flip cards used would then have a number between 5 and 12. If the number was less than or equal to the pitchers card number, you would take the outcome from the pitcher's card. Otherwise the outcome would come from the batter's card.
So the better pitchers would have higher control numbers and therefore would be better able to impose their will on a game. This made the pitching matchup more important, like it is in baseball. You'd want to put one of your better pitchers out there against Pedro, or else you stood little chance of winning.
Not much we can do about that here, just wanted to vent a little.
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| 94 | Shelby-villian
ID: 111412312
Fri, May 10, 2002, 16:29
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LOL, yes I was wondering when you were
going to chime in. Well, its 3-3 now and I'm
guessing at a couple more series between
the Shelbys and the Dodgers.
Bring on the next whoopin'!
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| 95 | Purple Pimp
ID: 3638300
Fri, May 10, 2002, 23:00
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I agree with you. Seems pitchers are getting shelled way to much.
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| 98 | Dean
ID: 151132204
Fri, May 10, 2002, 23:42
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The CD-ROM game has an option called "improve statistical accuracy". The help section says that the option "Improves the statistical accuracy of certain players who had extreme performances. For instance certain pitchers such as Greg Maddux allow very few walks. Using this option will enable Maddux to duplicate his real-life dominance in this area. A number of categories are affected by this option including home runs, walks and strikeouts. Also pitchers hitting will be affected by using this option, resulting in less walks and extra base hits by pitchers." I think, although I'm not 100% sure, that TSN is using this option in their simulations. So that fixes the problem that, as you correctly say, would otherwise exist with the 50/50 split in extreme cases.
It's just really a situation where not enough games have been played. The accuracy of the game can only be proven by playing multiple seasons, never mind a few games of one season. Plus some pitchers, especially if they're much worse against lefty or righty hitters, are just easier to manage against in Strat than in real life, because we have 20/20 hindsight about their stats in Strat. And of course, changing a player's stadium or the quality of players around him will change his stats, as it should. Mostly, it's sample size though...
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| 99 | Donkey Hunter
Sustainer
ID: 55220159
Sat, May 11, 2002, 01:40
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My closer comes in in the nith inning, gives up a single to the leadoff batter and then leaves the game. What the...needless to say the next pitcher loses the game.
Two games later the closer comes in to close the game and gives up the game tying run. He then pitches in the 10th and 11th and needless to say loses the game.
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| 100 | tduncan
ID: 423452813
Sat, May 11, 2002, 05:48
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Hate doing the job for my division rival, but taking 2 out of the strong idiots (Piazza is unstopable, 4 more homers) just gave Erik a tie for the league lead.
Anyway Erik, check the recap for your 14-7 win. Kind of strange, Sosa's 3 homers aren't even mentioned, and the big stroy is Bobby Higginson's 2 shots...
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| 101 | Mariomaniac
ID: 3028248
Sat, May 11, 2002, 09:14
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West division finally gets to stretch it's legs a bit with some interdivision games. Now we'll see who's laboring in the toughest division.
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