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Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 13-18)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Thu, Mar 13, 2008, 23:56

Continuing for the next six rounds...

Rationales for rounds 1-6

Rationales for rounds 7-12

Building 7
ID: 48033121
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:47

13.01, Barry Bonds, OF, Building 7's Team

He's on my team and no other right now. I'm hoping he gets picked up. After the Mitchell report, they can't really criticize him for doing steroids, because many people were. This pick could be a big nothing. I have A-Rod with 518 career homers, Griffey with 593 career homers, and now Bonds with 762 career homers. I may take Sadahura Oh in the 25th round. Or me, I had over 800 homers in whiffle ball. There is no question that even now, Bonds is a better hitter than 90% of the hitters that have jobs. And that his bat would help many teams win games. I'm hoping the only holdup is money, and that there is not some kind of collusion to not hire him.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:50

for StlCards
13.02 Michael Bourn, OF, HOU
One of the things that I did during that lull the last round was to review some of my rationales from last year. There came a point in the middle rounds where stolen bases became a priority of a lot of teams and being in the #2 spot I missed out on some I wanted. Since I took Pujols instead of Wright #1 I don’t have the luxury of a 5 tool player to help with my SBs and my sum total prior to this pick only projects to maybe 50 SBs. Normally I refrain from a pure SB guy but I see no choice and hopefully my slugging is high enough to absorb the hit. When I saw Taveras and Damon both go I figured it was now or never if I wanted to land one of the big time SB guys. Since they all come with low obp and slg I figured I might as well take one now that is at least on the high end of SBs and I expect I can get 50 bags from Bourn if he can actually get on base. I’m also hoping that some other managers after me will see 3 SB guys go in short order and start taking some of the other ones now so that some of my other players are still around with my next pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:51

for Uptown Bombers
13.03 Nick Johnson, 1B, WAS
This is probably too early for Johnson, but with my next pick so far away I couldn’t resist. Johnson appears to be back and healthy from the broken leg. He is competing for the 1B job with an overweight [undrafted] who is always an enigma in his own right. I have little doubt that Johnson will win the job to start the season and produce to keep it. In this format, Johnson is especially helpful. He is an OBP machine and a threat to slug .500+. My only issue is whether or not I should have taken Harden and hoped that Johnson made it back to me. As I noted in the discussion thread, the other RIBC drafts have not been completely helpful to me. Rather than risk it, I decided to go this route. I’ll have to hope that another pitcher that I like makes it to my next pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:51

for coldwater coyotes
13.04 Kelvim Escobar, SP, LAA
He will miss all of April and the shoulder injury is not expected to harm him the rest of the year. He should pitch 160 innings and give me 12 wins with 3.60 ERA. Good third starting pitcher.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:52

for Bash Brothers
13.05 J.D. Drew, OF, BOS
After using the last 5 rounds to shore up my pitching staff, I decided to go for a bat here. At round 13, you either take an unproven rookie with huge upside potential or an established veteran with a down year. 2007 was definitely an "off" year for Drew who had established himself as an "on-base machine" in the Bigs. With his relatively young age, he could easily bounce back. If he returns to his old form and/or Lowell regresses a bit, he might even flip his batting position with Lowell in the powerful Boston lineup which also includes a rejuvenated Ramirez. So he could probably help in 4 hitting categories.

Of course you never wonder why he is still available at round 13 considering his long list of injuries and the very uncharming line in 2007.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 11:53

13.06 Adrian Beltre, 3B, Sea
I want another 3B (in addition to Youkilis), and I’ve seriously considered Beltre at least twice in prior rounds. I like his dependability, and his runs and RBI. I don’t like his OBP, which is why I always decided to pass on him. And I kept thinking that I was passing on him for good, because he wouldn’t be around the next time I picked.

So I’m rather surprised to see him still here in round 13. While I still don’t like his .320 OBP, for a 13th rounder, I like the overall value. Consensus projections: 85-95-10-.320-.465. (The steals will probably go to waste on my lead-footed team, unfortunately.)

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 12:45

13.07 Rich Harden, SP, Oak
Needed to get more innings with this pick, I considered Harden or CJ Wilson. The idea of getting another closer here was intriguing, but everything I read about Wilson was negative. He’s only pitched in one outing this spring due to bicep tendonitis and seemly every analyst is concerned about his control over a full season. I still would have taken Wilson, until I read a positive article about Harden yesterday. Scouts say his delivery looks a lot smoother this spring, supposedly a good sign. I don’t know. I would have taken Oliver Perez here, but Building 7 snatched him from me. When healthy, Harden is one of the best pitchers in the AL. The problem is he’s not healthy very often. Hopefully a year of rest fixes that problem. If not, hopefully CJ Wilson doesn’t become this season’s Francisco Cordero, I could really end up kicking myself.

Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 14:11

for RoBoGooRoo

13.08 Carlos DelGado 1B NYM
With only a few holes left in my lineup, the choices are being narrowed for me. It was too early to get a C, the OF pool was still plenty deep, I'm not in a rush to get an SP5 and the closer pool is all but empty, so I went to fill my CI with the best possible numbers. I had to decide if I was going after a veteran(Delgado) or prospect(Votto). I liked Votto but I don't trust Dusty to give him the full time job and I thought he would still be available later for my UTIL spot. I know that Delgado is not the stud he once was, but in the 13th round I feel that I'm getting good value. When he is healthy, he can still put up numbers in that loaded lineup. With Green and Conine gone, health is the only thing that could take ABs away and prevent him from reaching 80/100/0/.350/.500, which I would be happy to get out of a second 1B/CI.

Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 14:12

for JL
13.09 Raul Ibanez OF Sea
I've been considering Ibanez for several rounds now, but I always found a reason to pass over him. I had other needs at the time, but I couldn't pass up someone in the 13th round that was almost guaranteed to post good numbers. I have no idea why he fell this far. He really doesn't have any weaknesses. He's good for 85/100/.350/.480 every year and you don't often see those numbers last this long in the draft. I felt like I was obligated to take him.

Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 14:14

13.10 Michael Cuddyer OF Min

Hmmm. I would describe Cuddyer as rock solid. Others might describe him as boring. None the less, I welcome his solid across the board stats to my team ( with the exception of lack of stolen bases ). Ah, maybe he will chip in a few, I could use some extras

Two years ago he hit the 100 mark in RBI's and runs. Last year was a slightly less productive year. Some attribute it to an thumb injury early on, some say he cut back on his swing. His age shouldn't be a factor as he is only 29.

So I'm hoping for a return to the 100 plateau in each, which should lead to an improved slugging %. Batting cleanup for the Twins he should have plenty of opportunities.

Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 15:44

for dror

13.11 Jeff Francis, SP, Col

So far both my starters are from the young, talented but maybe a little fragile kind, so I wanted my next SP to be from the workhorse kind. Francis won 17 games in 215 IP last year, positioning himself as the clear ace on a Coloardo team that went to the world series while proving that it might be possible to pitch well in Coors Field after all. I don't expect any miracles from the guy, but 16-17 wins with a 4.00 ERA and 170 Ks in 220 IP is well within reach.

Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 15:48

for blue hen

13.12 C.J. WIlson, RP, Tex

Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 16:19

13.13 Scot Rolen, 3B, TOR

Lucky triple 13. 13th pick of the 13th round playing his 13th MLB season. Rolen lost 2007 due to pain caused by scar tissue results of 2005 surgeries (2) repairing left shoulder torn labrum. He bounced back nicely in 2006 reaching 90-90 R/RBI with .369 OBP and .516 SLG., all at or above career averages. His career numbers sans rookie and injury years (2005 & 2007), leave a .290 BA with solid power that developed plate discipline to become an OBA stud. He will benifit by moving to Toronto away from pitcher friendly Busch stadium. In 2008, Rolen hits .375 OBP, .500 SLG%, 90/90 R/RBI and 5 SB.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 16:23

13.14 ~ Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB

So how many games does a guy have to play before becoming eligible at a new position? It looks like I’m 5 starts at 2B away from having a far more valuable MI than a CI. He isn’t a power hitter but has good doubles power, and an OBP of about .375. He’ll score lots of runs and steal a few bases. I drafted him as much for the positional flexibility as for his stats.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 17:24

13.15 Frank Thomas, DH, Tor

Tosh just killed me with that Iwamura pick; I was planning on getting him with one of my picks this time around and thought his impending MI eligibility was huge. Well, I didn't have a particular position targeted here. I've already got 3 SP, so I resisted the urge to take a change on Buccholtz here. As I looked at the hitter options, The Big Hurt kept standing out with his solid percentages that don't show much sign of declining.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 17:36

for JeffG
3.16 Derek Lowe SP LAD
Was looking to grab a third starter here since I did not on my last pair of picks. I know what I am getting with Lowe because his numbers the last three years with the Dodgers are practically identical in every stat across the board. In that time it looks like Lowe has not missed a start. He's good for double digit wins, about 140Ks in 220IP, 3.60 ERA, and 1.27 WHIP.

14.01 Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B SD
Just me and JL still do not have a 3B at this point, and going back maybe to round 10 when 5 of us still had that position vacant, I felt there were a grouping of about 8 or so guys who were all pretty interchangeable so it seemed prudent to wait because it was likely some from that group could fall to me here. Kooz is low in OBP and runs, and serviceable for RBI and SLG and useless for SB. He had his best production towards the end of last season, lets hope he figured some things out.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 17:47

14.02 Clay Buchholz, SP, Bos

Well, I couldn't make myself pick him three picks ago, but I could no longer resist. This was mainly a pick based on potential; he doesn't have much experience in the bigs (other than his no-no), so there is some risk with this pick. Looking at the other leagues, he was tending to go in the 10th round, so I felt this could be a justifiable risk at this point.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 19:26

14.03 ~ Rafael Betancourt, RP, CLE

It looks like I’ll start the season with only 1 closer, so I need to be selective with middle relief and focus on players that might fall into closer roles. Betancourt was just plain sick last year, with a 1.48 ERA, .76 WHIP, 1K/ip, 5 wins, but a frustrating 3 saves. His numbers probably won’t be that good, but as a fantasy owner … I’m certainly wishing bad luck on Joe Borowski.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 19:49

for Taxman
14.04 Luke Scott, OF, BAL
Scott became a starter in Houston in 2007 hitting 18 ‘taters in 369 AB. Going to Baltimore in the Tejada trade, Scott will take over LF, batting either 5th or 6th and thus should up RBI production. Already 29 but entering just his 3rd year in MLB, Scott has been a late bloomer. That has had more to do with the glut of OF talent Houston has produced, than holes in his swing. I saw Scott several times during two partial seasons in Austin. He terrorized opponent pitching, first in AA with a .654 SLG and the following in AAA (Austin landed the Houston AAA working agreement) with a .603 SLG. Getting out of the Houston system will let him continue to morph into a serious power hitter. This late in the draft, Scott has huge value potential. I project him to deliver few if any steals, 80/80 RBI/R production, to continue his SLG prowess with a .490 SLG and already competent at taking walks, an OBP of .380.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 19:49

for blue hen
14.05 Daric Barton, 1B, Oak
I am still on the Barton Bandwagon. Dan Haren has been impressive, but Barton will be the one that makes Walt Jocketty rue the Mark Mulder trade. This kid is for real, and if develops even moderate power, he can be the cornerstone of a team for years to come. He's hurt by playing in Oakland, but if he wasn't, I wouldn't have gotten him this late. I considered Joey Votto here, but he's unproven and has Dusty Baker as his manager.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 19:50

for dror
14.06 Mark Teahen, OF, KAN
After rolling the dice on high risk/reward guys on most of the middle rounds, I wanted to make a boring (but very important) pick here. Teahen will bat 3rd on an improving KC lineup, and will post unspectacular but solid numbers accross the board, including double digit steals. His 1B eligability is also a great bonus becuase it allows me to use him as a CI.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:45

for Dave R
14.07 Bronson Arroyo SP CIN
One thing you would think I would learn after a few years of drafting in the RIBC and RIHC, is to never expect a player to fall for your next pick. Nope. I actually thought that CJ Wilson or Betancourt would be available for me here. Stupid.

So on to a SP. Arroyo was the highest ranked starter on my list. Last year was a tough year for Arroyo, seeing a jump in his ERA by nearly a full point and only 9 wins.

Some attribute it to bad luck and poor bullpen support. With Cordero on board maybe that will help.

But in researching, Arroyo had an ERA of 2.64 through 9 starts. After a 129 pitch debacle, Bronson got shelled in 5 of his next 6, ballooning his ERA to 5.24. He righted the ship and posted an ERA of 3.46 the rest of the way. So.......... who knows

But as 4th starter, I'm penciling him in for 14-15 wins, 160 K's and improved ratios.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:45

for JL
14.08 Josh Fields 3B CWS
There isn't much to say about this pick. I had waited to grab a 3B because there was a big cluster of third-tier 3Bs that were all similar and I felt like I'd fill other categories until this crop of garbage thinned out. I had originally targeted Evan Longoria with this pick, but the rumor is that he may be headed to AAA to start the season. With Rolen, Beltre, and Kouz getting taken, Fields was really the only option left. Fields hit 23 HRs in 375 ABs last season, so the power potential is certainly there...at least that's what I'm telling myself.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:46

for RoBoGuRu
14.09 Kerry Wood RP CHC
t press time, it appears that Wood will at least start the year as the Cubs closer. Since I haven't addressed any RP yet, I figured I would grab a guy that has experience there. I don't really know how long to expect him to be closing with Marmol and Howry also in that pen, but even without the Saves, he should put up good K, ERA, and WHIP numbers, which is all I can really hope for in the 14th round.

Had he of lasted one more round, I had Ibanez at the top of my queue for a couple rounds and was finally ready to pencil in my OF4 if I could still get him. I considered Duncan after Ibanez was taken, but talked myself out of it.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:49

14.10 Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pit
I didn’t realize how much deeper 2B was than SS. I say this for two reasons: (1) I’m glad I didn’t reach for 2B earlier due to positional scarcity and (2) I wish I would have grabbed a SS earlier, hindsight makes Tulowitzki or Guillen look more attractive in the 3rd round than Lee. If I’m invited back, I’ll have to remember and do a 16-team mock draft next year. Before I’ve never really understood the point of a mock-draft, now I realize it’s helpful in deeper leagues so you can notice imbalances like this.

Sanchez has been on my radar for a while. He’s a decent player. In 2006 he went .378/.473, last season it was .343/.442. His extra-base hits were down a tick last year, 56 vs. 61, but that isn’t too dramatic of a drop. It appears like he lost 30 points of OB/SLG due to an extra single every two weeks not falling (13). I’m expecting him to split the difference. At .355/.455, he’s a 2B who won’t hurt me in the percentage categories. At this point in the draft you accept small wins.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:49

14.11 Chris Duncan, 1B/OF, StL
I’m continuing my themes of shunning steals and pitching. It was clear after a few rounds that I was effectively punting the steals category, and rather than paying up for a one-category stealer or limiting my hitting power, I decided to aim for the other four hitting cats as hard as possible. I may still be a little weak in runs, but I’m pretty happy with my averages and RBIs – if guys produce as projected.

Duncan is someone I’ve had my eye on for a few rounds, and I’m going to jump in now. His 1B/OF position eligibility could come in handy. The biggest risk is his historically poor showing against lefties, and although St. Louis would like him to be an everyday player, he probably needs to show some improvement there to solidify full playing time.

Consensus projections: 70-80-3-.350-.510

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:49

for Bash Brothers
14.12 Ivan Rodriguez C DET
My working load increased dramatically after my last pick. And I didn��t even realize it was my turn several hours after pick 14.11. Fortunately the clock was paused during ��late night hours�� in the State. Still I had little time to look into this pick. I briefly scanned the lists of available players from each position but could not come up with a name in a hurry. Why I chose Ivan is still a mystery, maybe that's the day he hit 2 HRs in a spring game and led all players with 6 in that category.

Prior to the draft, I intended to hold off drafting a catcher until after round 20. I must be dreaming that he is gonna have numbers like Posada when I pushed the button. In an afterthought, I think maybe he'll hit more HRs in the spring than in 2008. What a nice pick!

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 21:51

for Coldwater Coyotes
14.13 Mark Ellis 2B OAK
I needed a 2B. Ellis won't harm me. Perhaps I could have waited another round for a 2B but nobody remaining jumped out for me.

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Fri, Mar 14, 2008, 23:37

14.14 Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, CLE
The options at second were very thin. Plenty of teams still need to fill their MI slot, and SS isn’t looking much better. So Cabrera went to the top of my queue. He is a young player who performed well last year in limited action. He was a base stealer in the minor leagues and most projections I have seen for him expect him to be more active on the base paths this year. 15 steals would be fantastic. This is earlier than he has gone in other drafts, but I felt I couldn’t afford to wait anymore. I didn’t like any of the other 2B left.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 00:06

14.15 Aaron Rowand, OF, SFO
At this point in the draft my cheat sheets and projections etc are long since thrown out the window. I threw a bunch of names into the queue so I could easily look at them. One thing I learned is that when you have 50 names in a queue and can only move them one at a time it really tries your patience! Looking at all the names I had in the queue helped me evaluate quickly who would be the next pick. I saw a few outfielders that I would rather have than people below them so I decided to go that direction. Bradley was a at the top of my list, but that would be a healthy Bradley which never seems to happen and he still isn’t recovered after being hurt on that weird situation last year, so I figured I’d go with someone I could count on for games played anyway and refocused on Rowand.

Rowand hadn’t been on my radar which is surprising since he has good slugging numbers and should hit in the middle of the order in SF. Moving from a hitters park to a pitchers park is not going to help but I’m only expecting consistent numbers from him, not spectatcular. In other words I just don’t want him to hurt my numbers. I had passed on Ibanez earlier but don’t think I will be losing much going with Rowand.

Building 7
ID: 48033121
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 01:58

14.16 , Randy Johnson, SP, ARI

Keeping with the strikeout theme. He needs 16 wins for 300, maybe that will keep him going. I'm hoping his back holds up. If he starts 15 games this will be an average pick. More than that a good pick. Assuming he pitches well.

15.01, Conor Jackson, 1B, ARI,

They got rid of that other 1B, who was pretty good. Conor should be fulltime now, and bat 3rd or 4th. I'm hoping he improves his OPS a little bit. It came down to him and Bradley, Longoria, and Matsui. He seemed like the most sure thing.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 02:04

15.02 Tony Pena, RP, ARI
Lyon gets first crack at closer and then it’s Tony Pena. Lyon has closed before but Pena is tagged as the future at the position so it makes sense he’ll get some save opps and maybe end up with the job outright once Lyon blows a few games. Originally I had wanted to take Betancourt but someone else took him, so I’m going with Pena. Just a flip of a coin when trying to find someone that might get you some saves down the road, but in round 15 why not.

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 08:37

15.03 Joe Blanton, SP, OAK
It’s been six rounds since I took a SP and I want at least two more. There were not many offensive players that excited me. So I decided to take my highest rated pitcher available. That’s Blanton, though I thought long and hard about Grienke. Blanton seemed more predictable, while Grienke had more upside. But with the other 3 starters on my staff, I wanted a player to just plug in and feel confident about what I was getting. Blanton’s K’s are a little lower than I would like, but he stands a good shot to win 15 games and produce quality ratios as my #4 SP.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 09:03

for coldwater coyotes
15.04 Milton Bradley, OF, TEX
Should be ready for the season. Good player for this format as he gets on base. Projected OPS of .857. Please control your temper and give me over 500 ABs.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 09:04

for Bash BRothers
15.05 Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD
I could either choose strong relievers like Guru does or simply compose my pitching staff the traditional way. Burned by some middle relievers last year, I decided to take the later route. Kuroda is not particularly appealing and does not K a lot, but he is going to pitch in the Dodger Stadium half of the time. I am expecting a line like this: 12W, 3.80ERA, 1.30WHIP, and 140K.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 09:05

15.06 Zack Greinke, SP, KC
If you’re paying attention to my roster configuration, you’ll see that I have only 3 pitchers so far – one starter (Vazquez) and two closers (KRod, Street). I’ve taken similar approaches in each of the last two years, and ended up with the third highest total rank in the five pitching cats for 2007 and the top pitching staff in 2006. In neither of those years did I wait until round 15 for my second starter, but in each year, the second starter that I did take turned out to be a waste. Maybe I’ll get my just desserts this year. Or maybe this is just a good strategy for me. If only my hitting management had been as astute!

So, if Greinke turns out to be a wasted pick, no big deal. Hopefully, this is the year he puts it together. Playing for KC won’t help his win potential, but I’m hoping for a sub-4.00 ERA, a WHIP of 1.25, 0.8 Ks per IP, and good health.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 09:23

for Flying Polack
15.07 Josh Willingham, OF, FLA
I really wanted Conor Jackson here to finish off my CI position. I had Willingham at almost the same value; I just thought 1B fit better with my roster at this point. Once Jackson was selected I had to decide between Adam Jones and Josh Willingham. I was intrigued by Jones upside and SB potential. However, I decided to go with certainty. I’ve already got Fukudome, Soto and Milledge. While I like all of them a lot, they aren’t without risk. I decided it was prudent to draft the more experienced player. Willingham isn’t exactly old; he’ll be 29 this season, coming off a .364/.463 season. I expect similar production. In the end he represents more AB’s without compromising my percentages.

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:11

for RoBoGuRu
15.08 Jason Varitek, C, BOS
Varitek wasn't even in my queue at this point, but I was really strugging with the direction I wanted to go with this pick, so I went back and reexamined everything. Votto was at the top of my list, but I was hoping I could wait one more round on him. I was really close to following Wood with Accardo for many of the same reasons. I also had my eyes on D-train as an SP5, but felt it was too early for that. So, I looked at my team projections and open roster spots. At this point in the draft, Varitek was the only C that is projected to actually help my OBP, give me solid production in R, RBI, and SLG. If nothing else, hopefully this pick protects me from the C carousel that I've been riding for the past couple years, though I have managed to get to this level with that strategy.

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:12

for JL
15.09 Jeremy Accardo, RP, TOR
With only one closer on my roster and zero remaining in the draft, you have to start looking at guys that could eventually get the closer role. Accardo could start the season as Toronto's closer until Ryan gets comfortable. Accardo has shown that he can do the job, so if BJ has any setbacks, this could be a good source of saves. Even in a setup role, Accardo should post numbers.

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:13

for Dave R
15.10 Casey Kotchman, 1B, LAA
I had pretty much solidified ( or maybe better put, filled in ) all roster slots with the exception of an extra CIer . Oh, and catcher. I have had my eye on Kotchman as well as Conor Jackson for a couple of rounds now.

I thought of taking another SP, but Guru snatched Grienke, who I was considering. And Jackson was taken earlier in the round.

But I'm thrilled to add Kotchman at this late juncture. Casey is not the true slugger we normally find at the 1B position, but more prone to spray doubles to all fields, and has an excellant OBA. This will be his second full season and expectations ( at least mine ) are that he will improve on last years OPS of .840 and score and drive in 80 runs. Rotowire is even expecting him to notch a stolen base ;)

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:14

15.11 Evan Longoria, 3B, TB

I was planning to take Greinke with this pick but Guru snatched him a few spots earlier, leaving me with no clue what to do here. Longoria wasn't even on my radar, as far as I was concerened I was done with infielders after Teahen. With no value SPs in sight I started looking into various OFs but felt the ones I like will last untill my later picks, and somehow along the way I stumbled into Longoria. As a top 3B prospect getting his 1st shot in the majors, his production could end up anywhere between 2007 Alex Gordon and 2007 Ryan Braun. I'm hoping it will be closer to the second one.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 496252012
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:21

for blue hen
15.12 Felipe Lopez,SS,WAS
I figured this was a good chance to fill out my middle infield. I got Tejada earlier, and was very happy to get the season-changing Theriot a couple rounds ago. I knew I wanted to fill this last spot because most other positions were already taken care of. I did need a catcher and thought about Johjima or even Napoli, but it seemed too early to fill a spot when I could still get value out of my last middle infielder. I had considered Castillo, Iwamura, and even Bartlett for this spot, and even though Iwamura went earlier, Lopez is clearly the class of this group. At worst, he'll struggle with the bat a bit, but still steal a few bases and provide a bit of value from the MI slot. At best...

Have a look at Lopez's player card sometime. He's got one season that really doesn't seem to mesh with the others. Look at that slugging percentage. Look at those RBIs. The homers, too. Lopez is 27 right now, and while I can't quite expect a repeat of 2005, I wouldn't be surprised if he proved to be a valuable contributor to my team this season.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 496252012
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:21

for Taxman
15.13 Jason Kubel,OF,MIN
Kubel, regressing last year, is again a break out candidate. He has a big opportunity to grab the 5 or 6 spot in the batting order with Hunter moving to LAA. This will be his 3rd MLB year, yet just 25 years of age and still maturing as a hitter. Needing a 4th outfielder, Kubel comes with power potential and an OK batting eye with BB/K ratio around the acceptable .500 point. For Kubel to really breakout, he would need to plate 100 RBI’s. I think that is a reach and his final numbers will look like 80 R, 85 RBI, 10 SB, .350 OBA and an impressive .480 SLG.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 496252012
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:22

for Tosh
15.14 Joey Votto,1B,CIN
Assuming that I can move Iwamura to MI in a week, I still need to be able to field a CI. Now, as I write the rationale, I fear I made the wrong move. Votto has lots of power potential, and flashed a .907 OPS in a limited callup at season’s end in 2007. Despite all his upside, it’s boils down to Manager Dusty Baker … will he do the right thing and play the young exciting stud at 1B, or the old boring [undrafted]. All I can do right now is hope.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 496252012
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 14:24

15.15 Kaz Matsui, 2b, Hou

His numbers would be fine if it wasn't for his anemic slugging percentage, but that's the price I have to pay for waiting this long to pick up my 3rd middle infielder. At least with Matsui I'll add to my stolen base totel as he had 30 last year in Colorado - provided he gets over his 'anal fissure' (as rotowire calls it) that currently has him sidelined.

JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 15:19

15.16 Austin Kearns OF Was
I thought about a 1B here perhaps Sexon or Overbay. Also considered Justin Upton based on perhaps picking up a dozen steals. Went with Kearns because he can deliver a decent OBP compared to many of the remaining OF prospects and should drive in and score some runs. Perhaps his SLG will be helped by the new ballpark. Will be happy with .355 OBP, and 80R and 90 RBI.

16.01 Pat Neshek RP Min
Maybe I reached a little on a pure MR not expected to figure in many saves. Being on a team with a solid closer with no health concerns in Nathan means no save opps. But then when I average some of the free projections for Neshek and see he is tracking towards 5 W, sub-3 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, plus gets better than a K per IP in about 70 innings of expected work, and I feel like I have half of a stud SP at a fraction of the cost.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 17:07

for slackjawed yokel
16.02 Rick Ankiel, OF, Stl

Ankiel was of course the feel-good story of the year last year proving even failed pitchers can make it to the bigs provided they're willing to inject themselves with illegal substances. It looks like he'll be put square in the middle of the order this year as the starting center fielder. As I was debating this pick, I checked the boxscore for his last game to see how he's coming along this spring, and he went deep twice... sold.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 17:13

16.03 ~ Tom Gorzelanny, SP, PIT

Entering the 16th round, there are only four teams that have fewer projected IP than I do … so I’ll select another SP. Entering only his second full MLB season, Gorzelanny is a hard-throwing lefty not afraid to challenge the hitter. He averaged more than a strikeout per inning in the minors -- 391 in 383 innings, but didn’t near that number in 2007. Perhaps he’ll do better in 2008. I’m looking for 3.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 140 Ks, and 12-13 wins.

Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 18:03

16.04 Heath Bell, RP, SD

Bell had a career year as the set-up man for Treavor Hoffman, the 40 year old closer for SD. Hoffman’s age has everything to do with this pick, as Bell (a young 30) becomes the closer if old man time catches up with Hoffman this year. Even in the set-up role, Bell will pick up a 5 saves and 4 vulture wins, chalk up 65 K, a 3.00 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 18:58

for blue hen
16.05 Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLA
Ironically, I took Jacobs in G20 within an hour. He's more valuable there because he provides consistent value and is relatively young, but I'm happy with him rounding out my corner men. More importantly, he's got the slugging while Barton has the OBP. Jacobs is yet another solid hitter, which is a definite asset this late in the draft. I still need a catcher and I could use another pitcher, but I see some guys who should last.

dror
ID: 5283329
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 19:10

16.06 Cameron Maybin, OF, FLA
Maybin is the main part of the package that the Tigers sent to Florida for Miggie and D-Train, and that says a lot. He has all the tools (speed, power, average, walks) to be a very special player, and it looks like the Marlins are ready to give him a shot as the everyday CF right from day 1. The bad part is that he is still very raw and except for a few flashes of brilliance he had a very tough time in september last year for the Tigers.

This is a true boom or bust pick. anything is possible, from a bad April followed by a demotion to the minors to 850 OPS with 35 steals. The reality, like in most cases, will probably be something in the middle, but I'm more then happy to take my chances on this kid this late in the draft.

JL
ID: 242291518
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 20:30

for Dave R
16.07 Justin Upton, OF, Ari

With Stephen Drew in fold a few picks ago, I thought I may as well keep with the baby brother theme. I had originally thought of grabbing a middle reliever but the two top ones on my list, Neshek and Bell were taken earlier. Adam Jones was another option, but I opted for pedigree.

Upton's stats are eye popping in his 2 minor league levels last year before being called up to the bigs. With the trade of " undrafted ", the DBacks seemed committed to playing Justin everyday .Rotowire pegs him as an immediate 20-20 threat. I'll be happy with 15-15, and reports are that he intends to do more running hits year.

It may not be easy this year , but I couldn't pass on the potential. Just look what big brother did in his first full season in the majors.

JL
ID: 242291518
Sat, Mar 15, 2008, 20:34

16.08 Dontrelle Willis, SP, Det

I had been targeting Willis for this round for quite a while now, and I was pleasantly surprised to see him here. I'm not expecting great things from Willis, but he's got a chance to win 16-18 games with that Tiger offense, and we know that he has shown in the past that he can be close to dominant. If I can get 16 wins, 150 k's, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP from my SP5, I'll be happy.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 07:30

for RoboGooRoo

16.09 Richie Sexson, 1B, SEA
In retrospect this was a bit of a knee jerk pick when willis went with the previous pick. 3 others chosen since my last pick were on my short list as well. I wanted to fill my CI with someone that could help my power numbers and at first glance I liked Sexson. I know that he had a terrible year last year, but I'm hoping for a rebound to his 2006 numbers. Upon further analysis, that may be overly optimistic, noting the 3 year regression from his peak years. There was one 1B taken later that I would rather have now. Honestly, this pick could end up costing me a few points.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 07:30

16.10 Matt Garza, SP, TAM
Garza is a pitcher I targeted in the beginning of the draft. He’s got a great arm and just needs the opportunity to use it. I think he quarreled a little bit with Twins management, so I expect the change of scenery to do him good. I’m not expecting him to be a superstar. I’m looking for a decent ERA and WHIP along with a high K-rate and surprising number of wins (I like the Rays this year a lot).

I didn’t really consider anyone else here. Adam Jones did make it back to me, so I briefly looked at him, but I couldn’t justify taking my first bench player when I still needed two starting hitters and about 40% of my innings.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 07:39

16.11 David DeJesus, OF, KC
I had actually hoped that Asdrubal Cabrera would slide to me around this pick, but Uptown snuffed him out 2 rounds ago. So next, I looked around for a pitcher here, but couldn’t find any that I really wanted – and many that seem rather interchangeable. So I’ll take my last starting hitter.

I need some runs, and would like someone who can preserve my team OBP. That’s DeJesus. Consensus projections are 95-62-9-.350-.410, although last year’s slugging pct was only .372. He doesn’t seem to be going as early as round 16 in the other drafts, but at this point, I don’t really care. He fits my need, and he’s currently the highest ranked hitter in my charts, as well as the top scorer.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 07:57

for Bash Brothers
16.12 Adam Jones, OF, BAL
Good young hitters went off board very quickly, and I had to pick one before it was too late. Jones is young, talented, and in the starting lineup of Orioles. He can hit for power and average. However, he is only 22 and extremely raw, so I don't expect him to do much (That's why I chose Garret Anderson as a complementary pick in round 19). But it is very likely that he could easily exceed my expectation.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 07:58

for coldwater coyotes
16.13 Scott Baker, SP, MIN
A queue filler who I could probably have picked up a few rounds later. Gives me my fourth starting pitcher. He is projected at 11 wins, 4.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP but has the talent to do better.

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 09:06

16.14 Shawn Marcum, SP TOR
I found myself in a similar mindset with this pick as pick 15. There was no offensive player I had to have, so I decided to take another quality SP. Marcum took a big step forward last year and I am hoping he continues in that direction, albeit with a much smaller step. He follows my overall strategy of taking SP’s who have low BB and good win totals. This I hope will keep me competitive in those cats. I should do well enough in K’s as well. I don’t have much else to say except that I wish there was a hitter screaming TAKE ME, because there was still some sleepers as SP that could have been had later. My thinking was to just lock up my rotation and then have less to research for the rest of the draft.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 09:47

16.15 Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
This really goes against any strategy I've used before, having 2 pure SB outfielders plus Furcal. Seems people are really not worrying much about SBs unless they have one of the few that won't cost you in other categories. Good strategy, but I'm not going to let someone with potential for this many bags drop any further than this. I don't have to play them both, but now I at least can play the better one this year, or both at times if I decided that the SB (and runs) is something I need at the time and can absorb the other stat hits for a while.

Building 7
ID: 48033121
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 10:19

16.16, Mike Napoli, C, LAA

I usually pick a catcher earlier than this, but it didn't work out this year. Don't know much about this guy. He's had decent OPS when he plays. I don't understand this flyball % and some of these new stats that are being used to prognosticate batting results. I'll stick with a good old hunch. I have a hunch this guy will do well.

17.01, Moises Alou, OF, NYM

He's injured already. He should fit right in on this team. My outfielders are aged 34,38,41, and 43. Good thing defense does not count. Alou has had over a .900 OPS in each of the last 4 seasons. He can still hit. But he only played 98 games in 2006 and 87 in 2007.If he don't work out, I'll try to find an .800 OPS guy on waivers. I refer to OPS alot, because I really don't break it down into its two components....OB% and SL%. I figure if I get too many that are better at OB%, I'll finish higher in that category and lower in slugging. It's not really worth keeping track of during the draft for me .

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 10:35

17.02 Aaron Heilman, RP, NYM
At this point in the draft I'm just looking for value or something that fits somewhere. My 50+ player queue from a few rounds ago is seriously depleted by now and I only see a couple of middle reliever types available. Heilman pitches on a good team and should get some vulture wins while keeping his whip low. There were some other directions I could have gone as well and seeing players that went later I probably should have taken one of them, but I thought I could wait a round. Wrong.

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 11:08

17.03 Travis Buck, OF, OAK
Good numbers last year when healthy. He’s a young player and worth a flier here as my 4th OF. Hopefully he can bring in 80/70 type numbers and 10 SB with OPS ~ .825. Also though about Jose Guillen and McLuth but didn’t think I needed McLuth’s SB advantage. I wanted to maximize RBI here, but couldn’t trust Guillen for a whole year. Guillen was a great pick up for me post draft and preseason last year. I figured to just thank him for that work rather than ask him to duplicate it. Actually, I owned Buck for parts of last year as well and he was good when he played, so now I am just hoping he plays more often.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 13:24

for coldwater coyotes
17.04 Jason Bartlett, SS, TAM
I needed a MI. The potential 25 SBs are attractive but he is going to kill my SLG%. I will need to be active on the waiver wire for a better hitter. Maybe I can trade him in May to a team falling short in the SB category.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 13:25

for Bash Brothers
17.05 Nomar Garciaparra, 3B, LAD
Well, of course you've already knew he had a broken hand. I made this pick before his injury was discovered. Prior to being hit in his hand this spring, his bat seemed to come alive and the 3B job of the Dodgers was his to lose. He could have been a nice fit as a CI in my lineup, as I was expecting him to perform like 2006 when I drafted him. Not anymore. I feel like the Dodgers who are scrambling for a 3B. Fortunately, a 1B will also do for me.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 13:28

17.06 Brian Fuentes, RP, Col
I wanted to take another starter here, but can’t find any that I feel confident won’t be back in the free agent pool by May Day. Pettitte was my leading candidate, but I figure I could find a comparable pitcher off the F/A list by mid-April. So instead, I’m going to bolster my relieving corps.

I want to find guys who satisfy three criteria: (1) good ratios, (2) strikeout ~ 1 batter per inning, and (3) possibility of moving into the closer role if the incumbent falters or gets injured. Some of the best candidates meeting those criteria are already gone. And many of the remaining ones probably won’t be picked until round 20 or later. But I’d like to land a few, so I need to get started now, since I don’t have three picks in round 20.

Even with a disappointing 2007 in which he was injured and lost the closer’s job in Colorado, Fuentes posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP while fanning 56 batters in 61 IP (below his career average). Corpas has the job as the Rockies closer, but if Fuentes doesn’t get an opening there, he’s a F/A at the end of the season and could be traded by mid-summer. Only age 32.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 17:15

17.07 Bill Hall, 3B, Mil
I’m excited about this pick. Bill was a 5th round pick last season and he proceeded to have a terrible season. He definitely had a terrible season last year, losing 125 points of SLG and 30 points of OB. There we some factors to like. His walk-rate increased in 2006 and he maintained that increase. That makes sense, he suffered a hand injury last season and those tend to sap a players power.

Another factor working against him last season was the position change. He was pretty awful in CF, and there is little doubt in my mind that affected him at the plate. Now he’s moving back into the infield. He’ll start at 3B, so after his 6th game I’ll be able to move him to the CI spot. The other guys I looked at here were Mark Reynolds and Jonny Gomes.

RoBoGooRoo
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:36

17.08 Gary Matthews OF LAA
I don't expect a return to his 2006 numbers, but a repeat of last year would make this a pretty good SP4 at this point in the draft. He should give me solid power numbers with the added benefit of 15+ SB. However, this positive thinking won't stop me from buying some insurance later or looking for a hot bat during the season if he loses ABs with Hunter taking over in Center.

JL
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:37

17.09 Luis Castillo 2B NYM
Castillo was really the only decent MI left on the board. He's hitting 2nd for the potent Mets lineup and he showed last season that he can still steal a few bases. He should score 90 runs, steal 15 bases, and get on base 35% of the time while destroying my slugging% and contributing nothing in RBIs. I'll take that, I guess. It's not like I have much of a choice.

Dave R
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:38

17.10 Bob Howry RP CHC

It's been a while since I had address pitching, and even longer that I added any relievers. All the closers are long gone, as well as some potential closers in waiting. I had a few in mind earlier, but they disappeared before my turn.

The closer situation in Chicago seems still unresolved. A month ago Howry supposedly was the favorite, now it appears either Wood or Marmol will get the job. And Howry has struggled this spring, which isn't unusual for him.

At the least he will give me good ratios, average a little less than a K per inning and luck into a few wins and saves.

At the best he maybe I get lucky and stumble upon another closer

dror
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:39

17.11 Nate McLouth OF PIT
Mclouth finished 2007 with 810 OPS, 62 runs and 22 steals in only 382 PA. He is expected to play everyday and bat leadoff this year, and if he can play as well as he did last year over 650 PA, he will provide great value here.

blue hen
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:39

17.12 Kenji Johjima, C, SEA

You need a catcher, right? In my eyes, Johjima is the last catcher remaining who helps a fantasy team instead of hurting it. To get that particular guy at the last possible moment seems like a major win. I almost took any number of catchers earlier in the draft, and am happy to have waited this long. As for Johjima specifically, there's a chance he needed an adjustment period and is now ready to jump to the next level. If that's the case, I'll get even more value out of him.

Taxman
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:40

17.13 Lyle Overbay, 1B, TOR

Overbay will start off as my Utility hitter and provide backup to Corner IF and 1B. I also considered Guillen, Headley, and Gomes with this pick. What cinched the deal is expected full time 1B job in a good Toronto line-up. He suffered a broken hand that derailed a career year in 2007. Thus he will have a cloud over him until he can show the repaired hand can delivery same BA and power as before the injury. Historically, he has been a high contact line drive type of hitter with a good eye and emerging power. If hand issue inhibits power, I hope that he continues to hit line drives for doubles and continues his career .285 BA. Realistic production, with out power, leaves probable .370 OBP and .430 SLG, no SB but solid 75/85 R/RBI production.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:41

17.14 ~ Jose Guillen, OF, KC

He’ll only miss 12 games as a result of a steroids suspension. He’s a productive bat with a .355 OBP, .480 SLG, 75 RBIs, 65 runs, but comes with a complete lack of sexiness as a fantasy player. If this league didn’t use 4 OFers, I most likely wouldn’t have drafted him here.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 21:52

17.15 Gil Meche, SP, KC

I guess I was looking to balance out all my riskier pitcher picks (Buchholtz, Snell, Rich Hill) - guys that don't have a lot of history in the league, and get someone like Meche that I know would go out there every fifth day and get his strikeouts and maybe even pick up a win now and again. His ERA and WHIP were actually quite acceptable last year (3.67, 1.33), and I'd be be pleased with that at this point in the draft.

JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 22:23

17.16 Brad Wilkerson 1B/OF Sea
Round after round I kept letting 1B go by the board so now I am scraping a little and perhaps even making a reach. Wilkerson will play RF for Seattle but has 1B eligibility in Yahoo. If he can get numbers equal to or better than the other CI drafted since my last pick or just after this one (Jacobs, Sexon, Nomar, Overbay, Reynolds, Huff) then I'll be content here.

18.01 Andy Pettitte SP NYY
I picked another starter who like my other three starters should be capable of hitting the teens in wins, although this one without as much benefit for my team in the other pitching categories. At this point most of the remaining starters on the boards are going to be in the 4's for projected ERA and the 1.3s in WHIP, so I went with Andy because he should get a more run support than the other options here to translate into a few more wins. If his elbow problems do return, it will not be a quick turnaround on the DL now that HGH is no longer an option.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 425869
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 22:41

18.2 Mark Reynolds, 3B, Ari

I started to look at what my team needed, and I was still without a starting corner infielder. I checked who was left, and there were very few sure options. So, I decided I needed to get one here before the selection was even more sparse. I had it down to Reynolds and Headley; seeing as Reynolds seems to be more of a sure thing as far as playing time goes, I went with him.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 16, 2008, 22:56

18.03 ~ Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B, BAL

This pick was made purely based on what I just read at Rotoworld. They say my 15.14 pick (Vitto) stinks, and might start the season at AAA. So now I need a backup CI just in case, and Huff is near the top of the list. He is Baltimore’s likely DH and clean-up hitter, and my new backup CI. He’s already been named “player most likely to annoy me”. Nothing exciting to see here. Move along.

Taxman
SuperDude
ID: 029463114
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 00:23

18.04 Dustin Duchscherer, SP, OAK

Duchscherer is vying for a spot in the Oakland rotation after several years on IR and in spot relief. He has elite numbers for BB/K purposes which help keep his ERA @ 3.00 and his WHIP below 2.5. It has been a few years since he threw as a SP, but early spring results indicate he might pull off the switch to SP. My guess is that DD doesn’t hit elite numbers due to A's Defense and lack of run support. Still he should generate 9 wins, 110 innings worth 100 K’s with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. There is great potential for Duchscherer having a significant upside and a very limited downside. His history does not include sporadic blow-ups or abhorrent ERA/WHIP outings.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:37

for Blue Hen
18.05 Barry Zito, SP, SF
Repeat after me, kids: Barry Zito, 18th round draft pick. How the mighty have fallen. Sure he's overpaid, and sure he's a shell of his former self, but Zito can definitely provide some value, especially at this stage of the draft. Sometimes, players are so overrated that they're underrated. Everyone says "I don't like that guy - he's overrated." Well, if enough people say that, you can start to lose sight of the value they do bring. Zito will pitch a lot of innings, strike out a lot of batters, and will probably have reasonable ratios. Looking at some of the other players who went in this round, this is a serious coup.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:37

for dror
18.06, Ian Kennedy, SP, NYY
Kennedy might not be as hyped as his teamates Hughes and Joba, but he can easily end up the most productive of the trio, at least this year. While Joba (only 112 IP in 2007) and Hughes (108) are expected to be on strict pitch counts this year, Kennedy (165) appears ready to be an integral part of the Yankees rotation right from the start. He had great success at every level he pitched at so far (including the majors), and I see no reason why he shouldn't finish the season with 160-180 quality innings and end up with the most value out of the 3 young stars. Considering both his buddies went in the 12th round, I was more then happy to get Kennedy here.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:38

for Dave R
18.07 Ryan Church, OF, NYM
I wasn't necessarily looking to add an OFer at this point but Church was well worth the gamble in round 18. Despite posting an better than .800 OPS for three season for the Nats, Church was never given the opportunity to play everyday.

Now with the Mets, and supposedly their everyday rightfielder, it will be interesting to see what Church can if he can get 500 AB's.

I think 20 HR's, and 80-90 runs and RBI's are within reach. Certainly worth a shot at this late juncture

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:38

for JL
18.08 Hideki Okajima, RP Bos
In retrospect, I probably should've taken Jon Rauch with this pick, since he'll likely take the closer's role when Cordero gets shipped out. Okajima was dominant last season, averaging nearly 1 k/ip and posting a WHIP under 1.00. 70 innings of dominant stuff was better than the 150 innings of mediocrity that I would've gotten with a starter here.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:39

for RoboGooRoo
18.09 Mark Prior, SP, SDG

I wasn't really looking for another SP here, but I felt the possible reward of a great arm(when healthy) in a great pitchers' park was enough to warrant an 18th round pick as an SP4.

I originally had an RP lined up here, but JL stole Okajima with the pick before me. I had my eyes on a couple other RPs but felt that the group was deep enough that I could wait on one of them.

Flying Polack
Sustainer
ID: 378582811
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 09:40

18.10 Jonny Gomes, OF, Tam
I did take my first bench player here. I think it makes sense, the only starting position I’m missing is SS, and the options there are just garbage. I don’t like any of the options enough to use a draft pick on for at least the next couple rounds.

Gomes is a decent player. He’s going to be above average in SLG and below average in OB; someone who could pile up the RBI’s in a surprisingly decent lineup. Originally he was pegged in a DH platoon. However, the injury to Baldelli, announced since our draft started, changed that. Now he’s the everyday RF. I like him a lot as an insure policy on Fukudome and Milledge. Plus, a 5th OF can really pile up the AB’s since he’s can back up 5 positions, even without major injury or disappointment I should be able to get Gomes 60 games.

The other player in my queue was Mark Prior. I had Prior ranked #2, so I still wanted Gomes first, but I thought it was funny that RoboGooRoo selected Prior at 18.09.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 10:23

18.11 Jon Rauch, RP, Was
Rauch continues my current bullpen theme – decent ratios, decent K rate (albeit a bit under 1 per IP), and presumably next in line for saves after Chad Cordero. He had the dubious distinction last year of leading the Nationals’ staff in wins – with 8.

Will I continue to eschew starters while adding more bullpen depth? Tune in later and find out! (Even I don’t know for sure…)

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 10:27

for Bash Brothers
18.12 Cristian Guzman, SS, WAS
I felt I had a successful draft early on in composing my infielders (Hafner, Weeks, Jeter, and Wright). Unfortunately I held off too long to pick my MI and CI slots, which greatly weakened my lineup. In round 18, there's really noting left. I managed to find out Guzman was still available. The good news is he's healthy, doing well this spring, and going to be the starting SS and leadoff hitter in the Nationals' lineup. However, that's all the good words I can say about him. I absolutely had no idea what to expect from him.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 10:27

for coldwater coyotes
18.13 Dmitri Young, 1B, WAS
A little disappointing that I am left with Young for my CI. I probably should have picked somebody else earlier to fill this spot, probably before I had picked my first starting pitcher. My rationale was that when he plays his numbers are reasonably good (last year OPS of .869) and when he gets injured I would be able to find a replacement. But it looks like Nick Johnson may take first base and Young is way too fat to play anywhere else.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 12:26

for uptown bombers
18.14 Chase Headley, 3B, SDG
Besides the catcher spot, I had one more starting hitter spot to fill. Much like last pick, I wanted to maximize RBI potential. I also wanted some roster flexibility. Headley gives me a back-up 3B and he should qualify for OF soon. That is, of course, if he plays. In the 18th round, I figure it’s a good time to take a chance on a talented young player tearing it up in spring training. He’ll need either [undrafted] to stay hurt, which seems likely, or to beat out [undrafted], who hasn’t shown much over his career. I won’t assume he plays every day from the jump, but hopefully he’ll outperform those two when given the chance and emerge as the logical starter.

StLCards
Dude
ID: 31010716
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 12:29

18.15 John Patterson, SP, WAS
I wanted Jon Rauch here but once he went I decided to add another pitcher. Patterson is no sure thing but worth a gamble in the 18th round. Says he has his curve ball working so at least there is positive news there. If he looks good early then I'll be happy, otherwise he will be dropped and I'll try someone else.

Building 7
ID: 471052128
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 13:10

18.16, Mark DeRosa, 2B, CUBS

I've never been a big DeRosa fan, but needing a MI in the 18th round I love Mark DeRosa. Plus he can play anywhere except SS and C. As long as he doesn't get carted off in an ambulance again, I think I'll be alright. I may have two 2b for the Cubs if they trade for Roberts as has been rumored.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 15:12

rationales for rounds 19-25

Forum: basePage 19490Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 13-18)

Forum: base
Page 19490
Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 13-18)