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Subject: RIBC 2010: Rationales (Rounds 1-12)

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 20:49

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like

for Guru
2.03 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos

This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.

4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.

Tequila
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 10:04

1.01 - Hanley Ramirez SS FLA

well it's the second year in a row i'm picking for first....i picked Ramirez last year, this year i was really tempted to pick Pujols instead but at the end Ramirez had a slight edge for me.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 10:13

1.02 Albert Pujols 1B STL

With the second option for my draft slot, I chose to draft second. Every cheatsheet shows a clear #1 and #2, and it gets a little cloudy after that, so I'll go with the flow and take Hanley.

When the draft started, I put Pujols and Hanley in my queue and went to bed, I expected to see Hanley on my team. I was blown away to see Pujols there instead. I won't wast much bandwidth raving about Pujols. He's good. He had his surgery on his elbow in the off-season. I'm happy.

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 10:44

For Slackjawed Yokel
1.03 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Well I had third choice of draft selection, and I at first debated dropping down and getting Utley or Mauer with a mid-round pick. However, I struggled a bit with this as I wasn't certain how far I'd be able to drop down and not miss out. In the end, I figured I should settle on A-Rod. He still has the capability of putting up the top numbers in the game, and at 3B is at a fairly weak position especially for a league where there are 48 starting corner infielders.

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 10:46

For Uptown Bombers
1.04 Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
I selected the fourth pick with Utley in mind. I also considered dropping down to 6 or 7 and planning on drafting Longoria. In the end, I decided the 4th spot would guarantee me Utley, with the possibility of AROD, while dropping down would have been harder to predict where Longoria would have been available.

As for Utley, he has been a remarkably consistent performer from the shallow MI position. I broke from my typical strategy of taking a MI early last year and mostly whiffed, so I didn’t want to get stuck with that problem again. Utley is past his prime, but if he can just deliver another year of his “average” stats, I’ll be pleased.

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 10:50

1.05-Ryan Braun, OF, MIL-It is never difficult drafting near the top as there usually are a number of very talented players available. I had ranked Pujols, Rodriguez, Ramirez, Utley, and Braun in that order and hoped that someone before me would pick Lincecum or Halladay so that I could choose one of the other four. However I am happy with Braun as the best hitter left.

MBT
ID: 191142515
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 11:56

The 6 slot was the highest available draft slot when it came to my turn. Also, I don't like being at the ends during a 16 team draft so this worked out nicely.

1.06 - Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
I think 3B is a little shallow this year so I wanted to get a 3B fairly early. It came down to Longoria or Wright and I'm just not convinced that the situation with the Mets is much better than it was last year so I chose Longoria. He's got a couple of guys batting in front of him with solid OBP so there should be ample opportunity to get RBIs this year.

Goldcoach
Dude
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 12:10

With the fifth choice of draft positions I opted to "drop" two positions to pick in the seventh slot. I seemed that after the first two obvious picks there was a run of fairly equal players and that I might do better with a quicker return on the opposite side of the "snake".

1.07 Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL
Most of the cheat sheets I've checked (I use only free info) had Matt Kemp one pick aheard of Prince Fielder in this spot. After much refletion and second guessing I selected Prince Fielder based on the stats used for this contest. Averaging out their projections I "gain" 5 runs,29 RBIs, 48 pts in OBP, and 101 pts in SLG. While "losing" 28 SBs. I might find a "role player" in the later part of the draft to pick up a few SBs, but 101 pts in SLG will be hard to make up so Prince; Welcome Aboard!

filthy
Dude
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 12:11

6th or 8th-16th (not 14th) were my options for draft position. Not afraid to reach on a pick, so middle draft position helps limit my mistakes, therefore 8th pick is mine.

1.08 Roy Halladay SP PHI

First pick, beefing up my offense early was key last year, so my top 8 heading into the draft were: Pujols, Hanley, ARod, Utley, Longoria, Teixeira, Howard, Fielder. When the time to pick arrives, I had to choose between Teixeira and Howard...

so I went with Roy Halladay. Somewhere in the debate, the thought of Halladay in Philly entered my mind and would not escape. Sabathia and Lee both ate up the NL, and Halladay is a superior pitcher in my mind. And the fact that his homepark is now more of a hitter's park is negated by the offense that now hits behind him.

25 Wins? Not likely but more believable than an off-year, so why not? Not drafting Roy Halladay would leave me feeling empty, regardless of what team he plays for.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 12:13

1.09 via trade with Species (I get 1.09 and 2.10 for 1.11 and 2.08).
1.09 Joe Mauer C MIN

When Species offered the trade up when he was on the clock, my board had Mauer, Teixeira, Howard. Out of the three, I was not sure my top choice Mauer would make it to me so it was worth the flip. Species was looking at Wright apparently, not sure what Tilt would have done, and it likely would have been Mauer for me without the trade, but oh well. (Cost was Pedroia instead of Kinsler who I would have taken at 2.08).

Mauer's projected numbers are comparable to that of the other two players I was considering, maybe a little lower for SLG, much higher for OBP, and a small drop off in R/RBI, but at the depth impaired position of catcher, he far exceeds the rest of the field. The 2009 AL MVP lead the AL in OBP and SLG and fell a few short of 100/100 while missing a whole month of 2009. Of course, we must expect a likely small dropoff of his MVP numbers, and how the new Target Field will play is uncertain, but I think it is a lock expecting Mauer to statistically lap the field over all but a couple of catchers.

pick 11 Not many choices left, just 11,12,or 13. Took the 11th because it closest to the front.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 15:26

for JL
1.10 Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY
The wait between picks is ridiculous when drafting at or near the end of the round, so I just wanted to choose a draft position closest to the middle.

As always, my goal is to start with a high OBP/high SLG player, so the primary targets were Teixeira, Cabrera, or Howard. You really can’t go wrong with any of those three, and they’ll likely finish with very similar numbers, but Teixeira’s ridiculous statline after A-Rod’s return last season gives him the slight edge.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 15:26

for Species
1.11 David Wright, 3B, NYM
Under the assumption his 2009 was a fluke, this is a rock-solid pick for someone who was consistently a top 10 performer in baseball. Considering all of the pressure on the Mets with their big payroll and new stadium, when the injuries started piling up I think Wright took it upon himself to try to put the team on his back, and the pressure was too much. Obviously I fully expect a triumphant return to past glory for Wright - or at least close enough.

I traded down from 1.09 to 1.11 originally because I had plenty of boppers I wanted to choose from and found now distinct difference between them: namely Teixeira, Cabrera and Howard. Then the more I thought about it, I thought I could take a chance on Wright and still get my 1b later - and targeted Adrian Gonzalez in Round 2, who I ranked not that far behind the aforementioned 1b. Sadly that didn't work.....neither did my attempt to trade down again with Dave R and Guru, so I just "went for it".

The #9 draft position was chosen because I like to be in the middle. I could have taken the #6 spot but I didn't see anyone who stood out at 6 in round 1.

Tilt
ID: 3924312
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 18:20

1.12 Miquel Cabrera, 1B, Det

Cant plan on someone being there at 12 but got excited when Tex kept falling but alas it wasnt meant to be so it was between Howard and Cabrera at this point. Howard gives you the RBI's but the man just cant hit lefties. And he has gotten worse the last three years, not better. With my first round pick I dont like to have questions about production so I took what I considered to be the safer pick. Cabrera will rake again this year and is 27 so should still be on the upswing, if he lays off the booze he will be a stud.

Picking my draft position second to last left me with 12 or 13 so nothing to talk about there. Took the higher pick

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 19:11

for Dave R
Pick 13: That's what was left ;)

1.13 Matt Kemp, OF, LAD
I really didn't have to think about baseball early, knowing I'd be picking at or near the bottom. I figured I'd grab what ever big bashing first baseman was available. When I started perusing the various sites and rankings, one name jumped out at me. Matt Kemp.

I guess I never figured he'd be so highly ranked. I guess I didn't realize what an outstanding season he had last year, good enough to finish 10th in the MVP voting. And I didn't think I'd end up picking him.

Matt finished with and OBP of .352, a slugging % of .490, while stealing 34 bases, knocking in 101 runs and crossing the plate 97 times. And he did this all in spite of an awful September, which saw his average drop drop from .316 to finish at .297. He just flat out helps in every category.

The man is only 25, so the upside is there. I'd be somewhat satisfied with last years numbers, but expect improvement across the board. Rotowire has him ranked higher than Braun among OFer's, and while I'm not buying that, I'll take a strong 2nd. More comforting was Guru had him targeted as a possible choice one pick later.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 19:13

Pick 14: I selected the 14th spot, not because I had any specific plan, but 14 is a lucky number, and Bash Brothers rode the 14th slot to a title last season. So why not?

1.14 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col
Dave R has started it already. I was hoping to nab Kemp here.

I could have traded up, but I didn’t have my heart set on anyone, so I decided to wait and see who slipped through to this level. And last year, I took someone in the Kemp mold in round #1 (G. Sizemore) who turned out to disappoint, so I wasn’t totally set on going that route again this year. But if Kemp had lasted to pick 14, he would have been mine.

My plan is always to go with hitting in the early rounds, so even though Lincecum is a tempting option, I’ll stick with the plan.

I considered some power hitters like Ryan Howard or Holliday, but the final decision came down to a scarce position (Tulowitzki) vs a scarce category (Ellsbury). I decided to take Tulowitzki. His 2009 was a tale of two seasons, stinking it up in April/May, and then tearing it up in June through September. If I could get a repeat of his total season productions (including the first two months), I’ll be thrilled. If he skips the bad start, all the better.

With a need for three middle infielders in this format, it never hurts to get started early when a quality player is available.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 21:24

for TD
1.15 Tim Lincecum SP SFO
Draft Slot 10 was the highest available for me to choose. I chose 15 because I thought I could get Lincecum at this spot, and also have a high 2nd round pick for a top hitter. After observing how early Lincecum went in the AAA drafts, I was somewhat surprised he was still available at this pick. I have Lincecum rated my top pitcher. He is strong in all SP categories. I have read a few articles about how his mechanics allow him to remain injury free.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 21:25

for holt
Took the 16th pick basically for convenience. More time between picks. You can win this league from any draft position. The main drawback to picking on the ends is that you are forced to reach on some picks, or forced to avoid reaching on certain players. It's just something you adapt your team to.

1.16 Carl Crawford OF
Had him as the best available player for this format, based on his 60 sb and .816 OPS last season. Those numbers were similar to his rookie numbers so I think he can match what he did last season, and there is a chance he could take a few more walks and hit a few more HR this season.

If TD hadn't taken Lincecum the pick before, I probably would have taken him.

2.01 Matt Holliday OF STL
Kinsler is really the only other player I thought about taking here, but having taken Crawford, who is a little on the weak side in OPS and RBI for a first rounder, I figured it would be best to pile on with the best OPS and RBI numbers I could find. Looking for somwhere around .400/.520 for Holliday. Howard and A. Gonzalez were also available but Holliday might steal 10-20 bases this season so I thought he could do more to strengthen my Crawford pick. I guess it didn't hurt that I'm a Cardinals fan and I watched him put up numbers of .353/.419/.604 and 55 RBI in 63 games with the Redbirds. I don't expect that to continue, but it's pretty damn impressive.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 21:25

for TD
2.02 Ryan Howard, 1B, Phi
After choosing a pitcher in the 1st round, I planned on picking a hitter with this pick. Howard is very strong in all hitting categories except SBs, and even managed get 8 SBs last season. He has averaged over 140 RBIs the last 4 years. He is in the middle of a strong Phillies lineup that scores a lot of runs in a hitters park. I also considered Justin Upton who has potential for strong 5 category production, but I just couldn't pass on Howard's power numbers.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 21:26

2.03 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos
When I made my first round pick, I figured I’d be choosing between Crawford or Holliday with this 2nd rounder, but instead it’s Ellsbury that has survived. I briefly got my hopes up that Howard would slide to me, but once again, he disappeared at the last moment.

Ellsbury gives me a monster head start in steals, but it comes with a price. Power is obviously below average, and for a leadoff hitter on a decent team, you’d like an OBP higher than .350 and more than 100 runs. So there’s room for growth. Even so, I have him ranked at #9 overall among hitters in 2009, so a repeat of last year offers good value – and it will be nice not to have to chase steals later in the draft. The median team total for steals in last year’s RIBC was 132, so I might already be halfway there.

I don’t think I’ve ever had a speed merchant before, so this will be a new experience!

DaveR
ID: 47112621
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 22:24

2.04 Adrian Gonzalez 1B SD

There is seemingly an endless supply of first baseman that post gaudy numbers. Although I didn't expect it, I was hoping Ryan Howard made it back to me. And he came close. So it came down to Morneau, Votto, D. Lee or Gonzalez for me at this point.

Adrian just keeps chugging along, averaging 106 RBI's, 98 runs and an OPS of .890, over the last three years. Last years OPS was .954. Wow, and he even stole a base ;)

Gonzalez is always rumored to be a potential trade candidate, which some sites say will vault him into the upper tier of first baseman. If so, great, if not, similar production to his last three years will be fine.

tilt
ID: 47112621
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 22:26

2.05 Justin Upton, OF, ARI
Upton was high up on my board from the start. SLG .532 4th best among OF's last year and tossed in 20 SB's. And only 23. Made adjustments last year and soared, I predict big big things for him this year and consider last year just the beginning. He could be a 40-40 guy soon.

Species
ID: 47112621
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 22:27

2.06 Ian Kinsler 2B TEX
Adrian Gonzalez was 2 picks away, but Dave R snagged him up. Bastard. I considered other 1b like Morneau and Votto but figured one might still be there in round 3. (Buzz! wrong!) I also strongly was considering Justin Upton, but he also got snatched right in front of me. Geez.

I settled on Ian Kinsler. In my projections he wasn't that far off of the top of the list, which excludes positional value. Adding in the 2b value, he was a good choice, even if a bit early, in this spot. His juicy 26 steals with high OPS and R/RBI make him a 5 category stud in the MI.

JL
ID: 47112621
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 22:29

2.07 Kevin Youkilis 3B BOS

Miguel Cabrera in 2009: 96 R, 103 RBI, .396 OBP, .547 SLG Kevin Youkilis in 2009: 99 R, 94 RBI, .413 OBP, .548 SLG

And Youkilis is 3B eligible in a very thin 3B class.

In my opinion, he was by far the best player available at the time and continues to be underrated in the format. I would have stongly considered Kinsler if available, though, based on his ability to give you steals at a scarce position without killing you in the percentages.

JeffG
ID: 47112621
Tue, Mar 16, 2010, 22:36

2.08 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Bos
(completes trade w/Species)

Another AL MVP for me. Was hoping a heavy hitter like Adrian Gonzalez would have made it here, but when my pick came up, my board had three MI (Jeter, Rollins were the others) and a handful of interchangeable sluggers at CI. Went with Pedroia because the middle infielder position starts to dry up in the middle rounds, and liked him a little better than the aforementioned shortstops. He is the only remaining MI who will exceed my team goals for OBP and SLG and will also deliver triple digits plus in the run column. He'll also swipe a couple dozen bases. Although many of the heavy CI/OF SLG guys will be off the board before my next pick, I expect a few 20 picks from now will still be around, but more importantly I now have solid players in two positions C & 2B that traditionally drain the team stats in deep leagues like ours.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 08:16

for filthy
2.09 Zack Greinke, SP, KC

All of the bats I was interested in were taken, and Greinke was still around. Felix and CC also. None of the bats compared to any of these 3 names to me at the time, even with Halladay already rostered. I love the idea of 2 aces too.

I don't really like Sabathia, and I like Felix a lot, but Greinke still stood out. The season he had in 2009 will be nearly impossible to match, but the way he never fell off all year, even having a second wave of awesomeness, was very impressive.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Greinke improve on last year's numbers even. He saw plenty of Greg Maddux comparison's coming up, so if this is the start of something special, I want on board!

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 08:19

2.10 C. C. Sabathia, SP, NYY

As round 1 continued and then round 2 started back up I saw my top position players being grabbed up; I really had my eye on Ellsbury, however it became apparent that a value pick in the second round would come from a choice of pitchers. I had three on my radar, Greinke, Sabathia, and Hernandez. Comparing the four categories they would be competing in showed CC winning two (Wins and Whip) and third in the other two (ERA & Ks); Zack was 1st in Ks, second in whip and third in ERA & Wins (barely in ERA) and Felix was 1st in ERA, 2nd in Ks and Wins and third in WHIP. When Zack was picked just in front of me a direct comparison of CC to Felix showed 2 categories wins for each. I allowed the two extra wins projected for CC to "trump" the 10 extra Ks for Felix. Interestingly these three SPs were selected 2.09, 2.10 and 2.11.

MBT
ID: 191142515
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 09:13

2.11 - Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA

Hernandez has a monster K/9, had more quality starts than any other pitcher in MLB last year and he's only 23. With Seattle's additions to the offense as well as adding another quality starting pitcher to their rotation to take off some pressure to perform I expect to see more of the same. I never take starting pitching this early, but I wanted to try out a few new things this year so I went for one of the elite aces in the league.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 09:39

for loki
2.12 Ryan Zimmerman 3B WAS
There were still many good hitters to choose from as well as one top tier pitcher remaining. I almost went against my usual strategy and picked the pitcher, but stayed with conventional wisdom and chose Zimmerman. He was not my top ranked hitter but because of the thinness at 3B, he was the best choice for my second round

Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 09:39

for Uptown Bombers
2.13 Mark Reynolds 3B ARI
Of course, I really was hoping for Zimmerman here, but he got snatched right before me. So, after considering the other options, I decided to stick with the plan and take a 3B here, as that position seemed a bit weaker than year’s past. The major flaws for Reynolds are his K’s and low average, put obviously that matters less in this league. Even while he leads the league in strikeouts, he should still post a high OPS and solid counting stats. I’m not counting on 24 SB again, but it appears Reynolds could contribute around 15 bags. I did think about Sizemore here, but figured he was as risky as Reynolds, yet at a deeper position.

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 09:43

2.14 Joey Votto, 1b, Cin

By picking third overall I was hoping I'd get the choice of CC or Greinke here in round 2to solidify my starting pitching. Last season in AAA, I got Halladay with this pick and it was huge. With those guys gone, I didn't want to reach on a SP (who wasn't an absolute stud) this early, so then I turned to middle infielders. I almost picked Jeter but A-Rod and Jeter could never thrive on the same team. I decided to go with Votto here and get either Jeter or Rollins after the turn (assuming one of those guys'll still be there as Tequila already has Ramirez manning his ss spot). Votto put up huge numbers last year and was only 25 years old; I'm a sucker for the percentages and his .414 OBP and .567 SLG were monstrous considering it was just his second full season in the bigs.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 10:05

2.15 Jimmy Rollins SS PHI

OBP numbers are a little lower than I would like to take this early in the draft, but is counter-balanced by Pujols. I drafted him due to his stolen base ability. He's said he wants 50 SBs this season. If he gets 35-40, I'll be happy. An elite player at a scarce position.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:21

for Tequila
2.16 Ben Zobrist, 2B, TAM

I chose Zobrist and Granderson, well not necessarily in this order since i'm picking two players in a row. I targeted youkilis and mark reynolds but both of them were gone already.

Zobrist had good numbers in obp and slg last year, also some sb are welcome. plus he is eligible as IF CF and OF

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:22

for Tequila
3.01 Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY
well granderson didn't have a good year in det in 2009, usually i'm not too high on a player like him when he's changing team...

Maybe i drafted him too early, but his ranking in yahoo was around 36 and it seemed a not so bad choice. i'm hoping he's doing better this year considering the lineup of the yankees

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:23

for Tosh
3.02 Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE

It seems like Sizemore must be getting old. He's been playing for, like forever. But he's just now hitting his peak physical age (currently age 27).

He had a rough 2009 season, posting career lows in average (.248), runs (73), RBI (64), steals (13) and homers (18). But he had surgery in the off-season, and looks to be hitting in the 2-hole this season ... so his numbers should be much much better. Feel free to poke me with a stick at the end of the year if they are not.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:24

for Yokel
3.03 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY

As thin as middle infielders are and shortstops in particular I had my eye on Rollins or Jeter even with my previous pick. Not being able to decide then, I figured at least one of them would be available here, and Jeter was the one that was left. So, he can join his good buddy A-Rod in my lineup. Jeter had a bit of a resurgence last year putting up 30 stolen bases in addition to a +.400 OBP. He is starting to get up there in age but it's showing yet on the field. I'm banking that he's got at least one more all-star year left in his tank...

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:25

for Uptown Bombers
3.04 Victor Martinez, C, BOS

Not exactly my typical strategy in these drafts. I had Jeter and Sizemore as 1 & 2 in my queue with my pick 3 away. In years past I have waited until late for a catcher. Last year I took UNDRAFTED CATCHER in round 8 and it didn’t pan out. I thought the lesson was to wait on catchers, but then I decided to switch things up and use an early pick on what should be a sure thing at catcher. VMart tore it up in Boston last year and I’m expecting that his time playing 1B and DH will help keep him healthy.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:26

3.05 Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX

For the first part of the draft I wanted to pick the best hitters available. Cruz met this criterion and should help with HRs, RBIs and SBs.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:27

for MBT
3.06 Justin Morneau, 1B, MN

I was planning on taking MI during this round, but imagine my surprise when Rollins, Zobrist, and Jeter all disappeared. So I started looking at the depth of the other positions. OF is still strong at this point, I've got a 3B and SP so I decided to go with 1B. Morneau was a monster until August last year when his back went out. Everything I've read has him reportedly healthy so I decided to take a shot. He's not a sexy pre-season pick, but sexy doesn't win a 16 team league, consistency does.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:28

3.07 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY

Round Three pick #39 overall. Who do I pick? Which position will be hardest to fill after this round? Cano is the top second sacker left and a top 40 on all cheet sheets. Ichiro is available and highly ranked by ESPN (#23) but discounted by CBS sports (#55). Sandoval is there with 3B eligability, but again valued lower on one of the sheets. Or do I go for Dan Haren a top 40 pick on all sheets? I compare projections for Ichiro and Cano knowing that I passed on SBs in round 1 Runs is a push, Cano wins RBIs 2-1, Ichiro gets 25 more SBs, loses by 7 point in OBP and a whopping 129 points in SLG. That, plus the news that one of the top 2Bs left has returned to his home park due to back problems (position is thinner) have caused me to close my eyes to the steals and pick Cano.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 12:39

3.08 Johan Santana, SP, NYM

What is this offense you speak of??

I had to leave a 7 man queue for this round, and with Halladay and Greinke already on my team,
my queue was loaded with offense. There were 5 bats I really liked, and Johan was still around
from before. So he slotted in 6th behind Vmart, Jeter, Sizemore, Morneau and Cano. Somehow I wasn't surprised to see my crazy 3 aces scenario actually happen.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 16:58

For Species
3.09 Nick Markakis OF BAL
I rushed this pick. I was on the road without access except from my phone. I was stopping off in the middle of a 5 hour drive with only time to eat and take a piss. What I really wanted to do was grab a slugging 1b here, and either Adam Dunn, Derrek Lee or Kendry Morales would have sufficed. But, when there are 3 or more guys that I rate relatively equally, I don't like to just pick one and move on....I try to push it and see if one comes back. Morales nearly did, but he was gobbled up by JeffG (an occurrance happening MUCH too often already) 2 picks before me in round 4.

So, in my mind at the time I thought "let's take someone more near the top of another category instead", and I chose Markakis. He stood out near the top of both sets of projections I'm using, and when both projections are that close and tend to agree with one another, which they don't do often, I put a little more stock in the ranking.

I've always liked Markakis and I think his dip in 2009 was a fluke and he has some high upside in 2010. With a variety of Oriole hitters, both young and old, offering some stability to the lineup, I think Markakis takes a step forward this year. He was already a "100/100" guy (runs/rbi) and he has a .400+ OBP season under his belt. I think he returns to that form and might even throw in 15 steals into the mix.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 16:59

For JL
3.10 Dan Haren SP ARI

I was geared up to grab Verlander here since I assumed he would be the only top tier pitcher left by the time it got back to me, so I was pleasantly surprised to see Haren fall this far. He’s durable, pitching 200+ innings in each of the last 5 seasons, and still only 29. I can reasonably expect 16 wins, 200 K’s, a WHIP around 1.10, and an ERA around 3.00. And he could be a 1st round talent if he can learn to avoid his annual second-half swoon.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 17:01

3.11 Adam Dunn 1B/OF Was

Curse you JL! After my last pick, I had a list of 5 pitchers listed hoping one would get back to me 18 spots later. Almost made it with Haren, but it was not to be. That left me deciding on a couple of next tier SP (Lester/Verlander) or between Dunn and Sandoval, and wait one more round for pitching. I feel like Dunn's numbers in this format, recent seasons and projeted 2010, are almost on par with some of big the 1B taken so far, but picked up almost a round later. He had a back issue of concern the day I drafted him, but Dunn has played almost every game the last 3 seasons, so if it turns out to be nothing maybe lucky for me he dropped here having gone higher in the other RIBCs.

Tilt
ID: 3924312
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 17:09

3.12 Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF

3B is a very scarce position this year. I always feel like I need a big bat at my corners so there are only 8 guys that fit that bill. Kung Fu Panda and A Rameriz were what was left of those 8. It was a no brainer to take the panda. He is young, put up an OPS of .943 top 15 in the league last year. Aramis is just a big question mark health wise. And I didnt want to end up reaching on a light hitting 3B later in the draft and paying for it all year.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 17:55

For Dave R
3.13 Aramis Ramirez 3B CHC

I might have reached here, I'm a little concerned Aramis might have injury issues. Then again, maybe he'll be a man on a mission. Seven third baseman had already been taken ( in what I perceive as a position with little depth ), including the guy I wanted, Pablo, nabbed one pick ahead of me. Oh well.

Ramirez missed 2 months last year with a dislocated shoulder, but managed to finish with 15 HR's, 65 RBI's and 46 runs scored, and an OPS of .905 in only 306 AB's.. Prior to that, he's topped 100 RBI's in 6 of 8 years.The man is a slugging machine, and I'm expecting over 100 RBI's, 85 runs, and OBP of around .375 and SLG % of over .500

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 17:56

For Guru
3.14 Derrek Lee 1B CHC

With Tulowitzki and Ellsbury as my first two picks, I need to add some muscle. If Adam Dunn had lasted to this pick, I’d have taken him. Lee was my second choice. Although 34, he’s coming off his second best year, and I have to hope he’s not an every-other-year stud.

TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 18:37

3.15 Jayson Werth OF, PHI
Werth is strong but not exceptional in all categories. I expect his numbers to be similar to last season. Around 100 Runs, 100 RBIs, .500 SLG, .370 OBP, 20 SB. I don't think the Phillies plan to re-sign Werth ,so he will be a free agent after this season. That gives Werth plenty of motivation. I also considered Jason Bay, but I thought his numbers would go down playing in a pitchers park.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 20:50

for Holt
3.16 Jason Bay OF NYM
Bay puts up numbers very similar to Matt Holliday's. I got Holliday with the 17th overall pick, so why not take Bay with 48th pick? He was by far the best player available.

.384 .537 and 13 SB last season, and .376 .519 career. It seems like some of the roto sites are downgrading Bay a bit this year. Not sure why. The numbers he put up in Boston really weren't any different from what he did with Pittsburgh. I don't think the move to the Mets is much of a factor.
placeholder

4.01 Jose Reyes SS NYM
Reyes is having some kind of thyroid problem, and he had an injury plagued season last year, but I think he is still capable of top 3 overall status. Players get injured sometimes. Most of the time they bounce back the next year. Reyes is still only 26 years old. I don't think he's ready to be put out to pasture yet. Obviously there is some risk here but I've had good luck with picks like this in the past.

If he misses the first 3-4 due to the hyper-active thyroid then so be it. He is capable of putting up numbers similar to Carl Crawford's, from the SS position.

I'm usually in the lower half of the SB department, but with Crawford, Holliday, Bay, and Reyes, things might be different this season.

I usually have at least one SP in my first picks, and I looked at taking one here, but I just didn't see enough difference between the tier 2-4 guys to pull the trigger here. I can take pitchers later when there aren't hitters like Bay and Reyes on the board.

Others players I looked at here were BJ Upton, Wainwright, Brian Roberts, and Manny Ramirez.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 20:51

For TD
4.02 Cliff Lee SP SEA
Cliff Lee had an exceptional playoffs after a slightly disappointing regular season. I expect his numbers to be slightly better this season. Lee seems to thrive under pressure, and Seattle may trade him to a contender in mid-season if they fall out of the race. I wanted to get another SP with 28 picks before my next, and I think Lee is a solid #2 SP behind Lincecum.

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 20:51

For Guru
4.03 Adam Lind OF TOR

I’ve sometimes taken a closer n round 4, but I don’t want to be the first one to take a closer, so I’ll wait until the net turn.

Back to power hitters. Lind finally broke out last year, and at age 26, should still be on the upside. I actually have him ranked as the #15 hitter in 2009 in this scoring format. A repeat would be tremendous value here. I’ll take that – I’m not greedy.

I thought seriously about Carlos Pena as an alternative. I opted for Lind due to Pena’s injury history (almost always seems to miss 20 games or so), and because I didn’t necessarily want to tie up two 1B slots this early (after taking Derrek Lee in round 3).

Tilt
ID: 252571621
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 22:06

for Dave R
4.04 BJ Upton, OF, TB
I had been eyeing a solid 2nd OF'er here, wishfully hoping Jason Bay would fall in my lap. When he was snagged several picks earlier I figured BJ, Ichiro, or Shin-Soo Choo would be around. The latter two may have been a safer route, but I'm banking on Upton returning to the form of his first year when he compiled an OPS of .894.

I read that he reported to camp having added 7 pounds of muscle, and his ailments are behind him. He's gone yard 4 times this preseason. One thing I can count on is 40+ steals
placeholder

Tilt
ID: 252571621
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 22:07

4.05 Jon Lester, SP, Bos

Lester started striking guys out at an incredible rate last year 9.96 per 9. 2nd in AL to Verlander, and still managed to keep his control. He plays on an elite team so the Wins will come. His 3.41 ERA may lead you to place him out of the ultra elite but actually had a 3.15 FIP which means his season could have been better. Not getting one of my top 5 SP's im still happy to have a legit elite ace in the 4th round.

JeffG
ID: 47112621
Wed, Mar 17, 2010, 22:28

4.06 Kendry Morales 1B LAA

After rounds 1-3 were all hitting for me, definitely thinking I now should take someone to anchor my pitching staff. After my rd3 pick, was hoping Lester or Verlander would make it here and one of them did. But while waiting for my turn, started considering taking a second MI with Phillips still available. Somehow out of all of that draft board over analysis, I went in a different direction and went best hitter available w/Kendry, a youngish slugger who should drive in close to 100 runs and score 85+ and can pad my teams SLG contributing in the .525-540 range. A little light on the OBP for a high fantasy round first baseman, but right where I am hoping my overall team can end up with, around .350-.355. Morales had a breakout '09, I'm now hoping for more of the same.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 07:29

for JL
4.07 Justin Verlander, SP, DET

I would have taken Verlander at 3.10 if Haren hadn’t been available, so it was a no-brainer for me to take him here. I felt that there were still enough remaining middle infielders left to wait until my next pick, and none of the bigger-hitting outfielders were appealing at this point.

Verlander gives me a second stud pitcher that can rack up the wins and strikeouts without killing me in the ratios. I couldn’t be happier with my first four picks.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 07:30

for Species
4.08 Carlos Pena, 1B, TB

Kendry Morales nearly made it back to me.....it's worse when one of your targets goes just a pick or two ahead of you....I'd rather they go 10 picks away so you don't get your hopes up!

I settled on Pena after toying with drafting the high upside of Billy Butler. I loved Pena's consistency and his place in the Rays young lineup, and I felt he could slug higher than Butler, and I felt after passing on some of the .550+ SLG guys in the first 2 rounds that I really needed a strong .525-ish SLG guy so I took Pena. His batting average is horrific but his OBP is good to even great when he had a .411 OBP in 2007. Sadly his OBP has trended DOWN for 3 years....so I guess I am hoping against hope that he reverses that trend and settles in at his 2008 level of .377OBP.

I gave some fleeting consideration to a starting pitcher here, but nobody stuck out as being a strong value here.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 07:45

4.09 Brian McCann, C, ATL

My first bat! Not exactly an offensive anchor, but I won't be able to afford any weak links on offense so I can't complain with getting the last of the proven catching talent.

11 picks away I left a queue with 8 bats, mostly infield, then Broxton, Rivera, Lester. Thankfully, there were bats left when my turn came up!

There still hasn't been another catcher drafted since McCann, not a bad start to a monstrous project of building an offense despite missing out on all of my favorite power bats.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 08:22

4.10 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA

Wow! I was considering Ichiro in the third round and he made it all the way back to me! ESPN has him ranked at # 23 in standard 5X5 roto leagues, and here he is at pick 58 overall. My other options at this point appear to be Brandon Phillips, and I already have Cano, or reach for someone. Is everyone afraid of his aging legs? Here is where the cliché “never look a gift horse in the mouth” is truly appropriate. Ichiro…Sign here please; and take your vitamins.

mybadteam
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:09

4.11 Brandon Phillips 2B CIN
I had a lot of reservations about this pick, but I needed someone to anchor my MI so I started looking around. Phillips was the only 2B I saw with a history of performance and no nagging injuries. I seriously thought about Brian Roberts, but his pre-season back problems made me wary. Phillips has pop (20+ homers each of the last 3 years) with speed, which is something my team needed. His OBP is terrible, but I'm hoping to balance that out with other players. At least with a player like Phillips I know what I'm getting and can draft accordingly.

loki
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:10

4.12 Adam Wainwright SP STL
With this pick I departed from my draft strategy of past seasons where I waited until later rounds to pick a pitcher. I wanted to have an ace instead of depending on finding starters deeper in the draft. Wainwright was a Cy Young candidate who seems to still be improving and was my top ranked pitcher at this time. I also felt that there would be a run on the remaining second tier pitchers so that now was the right time to choose one.

Uptown Bombers
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:10

4.13 Andrew McCutchen OF PIT
A pick based on potential obviously. I was looking for steals with this pick without hurting my OPS. After a great rookie year, I am hoping that a full year’s stats will provide my team with just that. I expect a slight regression in OPS since he is so young, but I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility to expect 2008 Matt Kemp numbers. At this point, I’ll take that risk.

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:11

4.14 Chris Carpenter SP STL
If not for his health concerns, I'm sure Carpenter's performance last year merits much higher than a late round 4 selection. After having him picked out of my queue, I'm now remembering that I was burned two years ago when I was in RIBC by his last injury. But, then last year he was a huge reward for me in G20 where I nabbed him with my first supplemental pick. So, hopefully this won't be a 'burn me twice' scenario.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 10:12

4.15 Chone Figgins 3B SEA

As a Mariner fan, I am a bit convinced that Figgins was not the best choice for the team, as they really needed a power hitter. But he's a good choice for my fantasy team. He provides very solid numbers at OBP (.395 last year), SB (42) and runs (114). The numbers will change this year as he hits behind Ichiro, but they'll still be good.

With these two picks through the turn, I needed to choose two between the last of the good 2B or 3B, or the last of the good closers (I sense a run before it gets back to me). I decided the dropoff to the next tier at 3B is pretty significant, so it was just a choice between Figgins and Young. I'll hope to get lucky and have Figgins gain 2B eligibility and take the hometown player.

Tequila
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:09

4.16 Josh Beckett SP BOS
time to pickup a pitcher... i chose a sp, i'm not so in a hurry to run for closer in the first rounds.

i had a look for k's, some of the best in this category were already gone , i'm hoping for the same number of wins and maybe he'll improve his era a little bit. Also i know boston is not a strong as a couple of years ago but i'm crossing my fingers...

5.01 Billy Butler 1B KAN
butler had a great year last 2009, he didn't start so good, i also picked him up from the free market i was looking for a 1b and for good obp and slg. Obviously i'm counting for such a good season like the last one

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:10

5.02 Brian Roberts

Even though I'm writing this immediately after drafting Roberts, I can't explain my thinking process behind drafting Roberts. He's injured (back) right now, and is iffy for opening day. I generally try to avoid drafting older guys (age 33). I already have three speed guys on my roster, so I don't really need more SB (30 in 2009). But I only see Uggla and Hill as the other options at 2B. My cheatsheet has Roberts ahead of both of them, so I took him.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:55

for Yokel
5.03 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE

I was going to be torn between taking Brian Roberts or Choo with this pick. Tosh prevented me from having to make this choice. I like that Choo contributes solidly (though not spectacularly) in every category. I tend to wait to fill my outfield slots, but wanted to make sure I had one solid guy who doesn't hurt me in any categories. Similar to my earlier pick of Votto, I think Choo also is a player on the rise who stands to be one of the top guys at his position in the next couple of years.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:56

for Uptown Bombers
5.04 Lance Berkman, 1B, HOU

I was hoping Figgins would make it make to me, but I will take Berkman. When he plays, he puts up great numbers. Of course, that’s the reason why he is still available here. Berkman is already hurt and missed some time last year. Either way, I didn’t want to wait any longer for another CI, and Berkman seemed like a good value at this point.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:57

for loki
5.05 Bobby Abreu, OF, LAA

I picked Abreu for the same reason that I chose Nelson Cruz. His skills are only slowly deteriorating with age, and he should contribute in all hitting categories.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:58

for MBT
5.06 Jonathan Broxton, RP LAD

I can't stand paying for saves, but in this league you have to. When my pick came around and the top closers were all still there I thought I needed to take advantage of the situation. 100+ Ks and 40+ saves puts Broxton at the top of my list of closers. At 26 the risk of breakdown is minimal (unlike some of the older guys) and there is no competition for his spot.

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 13:59

5.07 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY

Round five, pick #51 overall. Looking at a closer here MBT just took Broxton, my first choice by a whisker, I had two other guys in mind if Mariano was gone; but he wasn’t; but he is now. Why a closer in this round? Usually I don’t pick closers until later in the draft since there seems to be a lot of fluctuation in that role as injuries and/or ineffectiveness arises. However this is a 16 team league (not ten or twelve) and the position isn’t that deep; especially on the proven performers. So I bumped up my routine a couple of rounds.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 19:42

5.08 Michael Young, 3B, TEX

So many question marks. McCann is ~~the anchor of~~ my lineup so far. He'll need support. All remaining bats have their flaws. The closer run is officially ON. Dare I enter?

Closer tier is much like the first round of the draft. Top 2 guys then a slight dropoff, I could have first pick of the next tier but nobody stands out enough to avoid a bat this time.

Every player picked between McCann and Young would have been a great pick. I really just don't know what to do. Phillips and Roberts are gone, Uggla and Hill need to be picked now if I want them and they lead my queue.

Thought I could wait a bit on Bartlett and Andrus. WRONG. Ethier and Carlos Lee are so tempting, but infield depth is fading and I can't stop thinking about how good this Rangers lineup might be. Was Michael Young playing hurt for a couple years and returned to the norm last year? Or he REALLY liked the move to 3rd base? He's got a great spot in what could be a monster lineup. Potential to match last year seems strong enough to make him stand out here.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 19:46

for Species
5.09 Dan Uggla, 2b, FLA

I did not have my heart in a 2b or MI with this pick, but I did still have "slugging percentage on the brain" and felt I needed to address it before too long. I could have considered an OF here and gave some consideration to Manny Ramirez, Carlos Lee and Andre Ethier. But I felt that there was a group of 5-7 OFs that were basically close enough to the same that it didn't make sense to jump on one here. I did give my first serious consideration to a starting pitcher, and thought Cole Hamels, Josh Johnson or Yovani Gallardo would work well here. But again, in the end I felt there were enough pitching options to pass on them.....and I REALLY thought Gallardo would make it back to me. :(

So I took a look at some of the MIs on the board, and Aaron Hill and Dan Uggla stood out, especially as far as SLG went. I am not convinced that Hill is all of a sudden a 30+ HR hitter, so I settled on the consistent Uggla. This may be early for him, but this gives me two slugging MI, which gives me tons of options later on in the draft. I like options.

JL
ID: 18201819
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 20:01

5.10 Jason Bartlett, SS, Tam

Quality middle infielders were quickly thinning at this point, so I had to take what I could get. I was hoping to see either Figgins or Uggla fall to me, and then planned to draft Bartlett in the 6th, but after Figgins and Uggla were taken, I felt that I couldn’t risk waiting on Bartlett. His peripheral statistics last season indicate that 2009 may not have been a fluke. If he gets anywhere close to last season’s number, he’ll be a steal. If he comes back to Earth a bit, it’s still not a bad pick given his ability to steal bases. I wanted no part of an aging and injured Brian Roberts.

Tilt
ID: 57231819
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 20:04

for JeffG
5.11 Jon Papelbon, RP, Bos

Yikes, two hated Red Sox on my team. Having loaded up on hitting rounds 1-4 I was definitely taking a pitcher here. Thinking Gallardo(who made it back to me at 6.06) or Hanson but went with a premier closer. Only two closers have been taken thru pick 74, but once the dam opens, the flood will follow. Not much to talk up about Paps, he is on a team that should provide many save opportunities, he Ks more than 1 per inning while WHIPping 1 point 0'something, and ERAing 2.5ish, and as a Yankee fan, I won't mind a few blown saves here and there.

Tilt
ID: 57231819
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 20:06

5.12 Aaron Hill, 2B, Tor

MI was getting really thin. I had looked at 2B the previous round coming back in the 4th and thought about Roberts Phillips and Hill. Roberts is already hurt and Phillips is too streaky and Hill was coming off a career year and felt like I would be paying for last years production. But when Hill was still there when my late 5th round pick came back I felt like I had to take him. He led all 2B in HR and RBI while scoring 100 times. I expect a regression but if he can just give me 80% with possibility that he can stay that consistent I will take it. He did have 630+ AB's last year so a lot of that production was opportunity driven but at least he is durable. I was going to take Bartlett here but JL as usual sniped me, taking the guy he knew I was looking at.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 20:23

for Dave R
5.13 Joakim Soria RP KC
I wasn't thinking pitching yet, but the the 3 top relievers had just flown off the board in the five preceding picks. If Paps, Mariano and Broxton are top 3, I'll go out on a limb and put at Soria 3A. A brief stint on the injury list last year is cause for concern, but sources tell me he's OK.

Joakim K'd 11.7 batters per 9 innings, posted and ERA of 2.21 and WHIP of 1.132, and recorded 30 saves I'm thinking similar numbers with an uptick in saves this year

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 20:24

5.14 Andrew Bailey, RP, Oak
Last year, I played a bit of guts in waiting to draft closers, and as a result, I ended up with only one quality closer on my roster. That was a costly result, as having an extra 30 saves at the end of the season would have been worth about 6 ranking points. When picking near the turn, you have to sometimes anticipate the runs – or even start them. Since I had taken 4 hitters in rounds 1-4, I decided to take two closers in rounds 5-6.

A few short picks ago, my queue was Papelbon, Soria, Bailey. Although the first two were snatched away, I’m happy with Bailey. He emerged as the A’s closer last season with 26 saves to go with a 2.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, and is generally considered one of the elite closer options this season. Of course, within a few hours of making this pick, the news was out that he’ll miss 5-7 days of spring training with “tennis elbow”. Supposedly, the start of the season is not in doubt, but spring training tenderness is never a good sign. I’ll have to cross my fingers on this one.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 22:20

for TD
5.15 Shane Victorino OF PHI
I like Victorino because he will score around 100 runs, get about 30 SBs, and produce average numbers in the other categories. I wanted a player who would get me some SBs without hurting me other places. Probably a little of a reach, but I like him better than other hitters available. I was hoping to get a top closer with this pick, but they were all taken earlier in the round. Also considered another SP, but I had Hamels, Josh Johnson, and Gallardo rated about the same, I knew I could get one of them with my next pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 22:22

for holt
5.16 Manny Ramirez OF LAD
I really didn't want to draft Manny. I tried to come up with every possible reason to ignore him. He's old, possibly post-roid, seemingly apathetic, I already drafted OF's in rds 1 through 3, I don't like him, etc., but because he seemed to be well past his ADP I forced myself to research him anyway. I found nothing but positive reports on his off-season workouts, attitude, and health. Still, I really wanted to take 2 pitchers here because I was having a serious struggle in deciding between Hamels, Hanson, Kershaw (damn it), and Josh Johnson. Being able to take 2 of them would have made things so much easier. The problem is that I couldn't keep myself from looking at Manny's career stats and the projection sheets I have (rotoworld has him at .409/.542 for example). The lure of adding him to my lineup was too strong. Finally convinced myself that I could get a pitcher or two in the next rounds that would be somewhat close to Johnson or Hanson. It might work out great, but I still can't believe I did it. I did pick up Peavy and Shields, they're ok... hope it works out.

6.01 Cole Hamels SP PHI
After Manny'ing myself, I had to go through the struggle of weighing Hamels, Johnson, Kershaw, and Hanson against each other. First inclination was Johnson, but I basically decided that he doesn't have enough major success to bank on. Before last season his stats look pedestrian. At least Kershaw and Hanson started out in some kind of dominating form. I weighed those two and finally settled on Hanson. Typed his name in the box, then forced myself to do another check on Hamels first. In last year's RIBC I took Hamels with the 3.02 pick and got burned. Basically, I think he was having some horrible luck with BABIP, lost confidence, and went into a terrible spiral. His 2007 and 2008 seasons were fantastic (1.12 and 1.08 whips). 2009 just looks like an aberration. He's reportedly added a cutter, and he's throwing the cutter and a curve for strikes. It's reasonable to think that the enhanced arsenal, better frame of mind, and getting to be the #2 guy behind Halladay could add up to another Cy Young worthy season.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 22:22

for TD
6.02 Josh Johnson SP FLA
Johnson is a strong young pitcher who is the ace of the Marlins staff. I don't expect much of a dropoff if any from last season when he produced 15 Wins, 191 Ks, 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. I liked Hamels slightly better, but he was chosen with pick 6.01.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 22:23

6.03 Billy Wagner, RP, Atl
Finishing my plan to select back-to-back closers, my short list was Wagner and Valverde. Valverde might have been less risky, but his shift to the A.L. made me wonder if he might turn out to be one of those guys who could only have success in the weaker-hitting NL. Wagner seems to be doing well in spring training after September success with the Red Sox returning from Tommy John surgery. Although he is now 38, many closers have been successful in the late stages, and Wagner enters the season well rested, if nothing else.

Heath Bell was another consideration, but there seems to be some thought that he might be trade bait by mid-season, so I ranked him a notch lower for that reason. Had Wagner and Valverde both been gone, though, Bell would have been the pick.

Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Mar 18, 2010, 22:24

for Dave R
6.04 Asdrubal Cabrera 2B/SS Cle

I really struggled with this pick. I had it in my mind I needed to grab a middle infielder, but when it came time to pick, Gallardo looked tempting and I gave serious thought to grabbing a second closer. Once I got over those two notions, I needed to decide on which MI to pick.

Elvis Andrus was on my list, as was Rickie Weeks. I had some injury concerns with Weeks. I settled on Asdrubal, primarily since he is eligible at both MI positions, giving me some flexibility for later picks.

Cabrera won't post the steals of Andrus, but should have higher ratios, and doesn't have the power of Weeks, put should post good all around numbers. He should give me 90+ runs, 70+ RBI's, 15-20 steals and an OPS around .790. And a little flex.

Tilt
ID: 57231819
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 00:10

6.05 Andre Ethier, OF, LAD

By far the best bat left on my OF list. See no reason why he cant produce what he did last year and take a step forward by hitting lefties better. He is 28 so should be in his prime. He was top 5 in RBIs at OF and top 10 in walks so you know he has potential to be a run producer with high OBP. Get Manny in the lineup with him and takes the next step could be a steal here. Had needs elsewhere but couldnt pass up on Andre.

JeffG
ID: 47112621
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 00:12

6.06 Yovani Gallardo SP Mil

First starter for team JeffG having thought about pulling the SP trigger each of the last 3 rounds. Also considered high upside Tommy Hanson. Gallardo has a high K9 and plays on a good team. It is not unreasonable to expect 200 Ks and a minimum of 15 Ws. All projections have around 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP which is not optimal for my staff ace and he is coming off a year where he wore down as the year progressed but many experts think Gallardo could be on the cusp of greatness. This I believe makes the third time I snagged a player that Species mentioned targeting in his rationales.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 01:06

For JL:

6.07 Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX

I wasn’t excited about anyone here. I considered Heath Bell, but he may get traded into a setup role at mid-season. And I have an inexplicable, irrational hatred of Carlos Lee, so that wasn't an option. There just weren’t any players that stood out as having a lot of value here. I expect a sophomore slump from Andrus, but he does have upside and at least gives me 35-40 SBs at a middle infield position.

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 01:15

6.08 Carlos Lee, OF, HOU

Woo hooo! Someone I kinda wanted or considered the last round actually made it back to me! I'm so excited!

El Cabellero is pretty solid overall. You'll get your 100+ RBI with over .500 slugging and a .350+ OBP. He stood out a reasonable cut above the other OF's I would have considered here.

Of course, if Yovani Gallardo had made it here, I would have taken him. I also gave serious consideration to Tommy Hanson.

filthy
ID: 591332022
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 09:54

6.09 Heath Bell, RP, SD

I think Ricky Weeks, and Ian Stewart both would have been better picks. They weren't quite as good as the guys who were on my radar that didn't make it to me, so I gambled and semi-reluctantly joined the closer run.

Heath Bell as the 7th closer taken is hard to turn down anyways. I had just witnessed 4 closers taken, and probably another 4-5 per round for the next 4-7 rounds, why not just get all this pitching stuff out of the way early...

MBT
ID: 191142515
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 10:11

For Goldcoach
6.10 Tommy Hanson, SP, ATL
A bit of a homer pick here; (I live an hour N of Atlanta) but not much of a reach. He’s big and strong, has good stuff, and posted a solid rookie campaign. Lots of upside, I’m anticipating/hoping he will beat projections and give me 18 wins and 200+ Ks.

MBT
ID: 191142515
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 10:15

6.11 Denard Span, OF, MIN

I needed to start working on my OF. Span has a strong plate discipline to counter my earlier pick of Brandon Phillips and his 20+ SB doesn't hurt. I was really looking at Andre Ethier at this spot, but as I was looking for him in my Q JL snagged him. Span is a nice consolation prize and batting in front of Mauer and Mourneau should provide a lot of R potential.

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 11:57

6.12-Torii Hunter, OF, ANA-With this pick I was looking for the best hitter left on my list who would contribute stolen bases. Hunter met those criteria.

Uptown Bombers
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 11:58

6.13 Stephen Drew SS ARI
Slim pickings at the SS position convinced me it was time to pull the trigger on Drew. The teams above me all had SS filled but I didn’t want to risk losing out on him, as I am hoping for a return to 2008 numbers. Hopefully, that’s true and I get a MI who is not a drain on OPS. Between Drew and Reynolds and as an east coaster, I might as well start planning on a lot of late nights.

Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 11:59

6.14 Jose Valverde RP DET
K-Rod may have been the more obvious choice here, but looking at their numbers, Valverde looks to have similar strikeout ability while keeping more runners off base. Plus thinking through the big save numbers coming out of the mishmash of closers in Detroit last year, he stands to be a top-tier closer.

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 12:06

6.15 Francisco Rodriguez RP NYM

Closers are vanishing fast. I had better hop aboard. I'm a huge K-Rod fan, but have been leary of drafting Mets, since a number of my friends believe that they are cursed. I decided that 'curse' is not a valid reason to avoid drafting a player.

K-Rod is pretty good. He did not play very well in the NL in 2009. Hopefully he can get me 35+ saves, and good ERA numbers.

100

Tequila
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 13:46

6.16 Rafael Soriano RP TAM
looking for a closer, i choosed an rp with few competitors, you can never bee too sure but Wheeler and Howell don't look too scary. Also soriano is at his first year for tampa bay, let's hope he's not a big bust...

7.01 Ian Stewart 3B COL
looking for a third base, i considered stewart could have some upside, last year 70 runs and rbi were not bad, i know he's batting seventh but things could change if he does good

101

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 13:46

7.02 Matt Cain SP SFO

It's been hard, but I was able hold off until round 7 for my first SP. And there are a bunch of really good 'B'-level pitchers to choose from. Cain, Nolasco, Jimenez, Kershaw, and Vazquez were all considered. Cain is what I look for in a pitcher. A young guy (age 25) that has several years of mlb experience. He had really nice ERA & WHIP numbers last year, but his K/9 and BB/9 were not elite numbers. If he can improve his control, he'll be a good anchor for my pitching staff.

102

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 16:02

for Slackjawed Yokel

7.03. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
Planning for my rounds of picks today, I was really hoping to land Weeks. There were still 7 picks until my 6th round pick, and I was also going to take a risk and wait until my 7th round selection instead of my 6th - the advantage of picking near the ends and scoping out the other guys' rosters... Anyway, I saw Weeks as one of the last remaining sources of decent speed and power numbers from the MI position. He looks to be recovered from the injury that caused him to miss the bulk of last season.

103

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 16:02

7.04 Ricky Nolasco, SP, FLA

There were a few pitchers I liked in this round who I thought were pretty close. I just needed to start building a staff. So I chose Nolasco for his high K’s. I’m hoping his first half struggles last year are straightened out. Some stat nerds, who know more than I, argue that Nolasco’s high ERA is an anomaly considering the rest of his “peripherals.” Who am I to argue?

104

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 18:21

7.05-Brian Wilson, RP, SF

It was time to take a closer while there were still some decent ones remaining. I wanted Soriano, but he was taken in the 6th round. Wilson fared poorly at the beginning of the 2009 season, but was very strong thereafter. He has the potential to be one of the top closers in 2010, so after thinking about Marmol, Hoffman, and Cordero, I chose Wilson

105

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:09

for MBT
7.06 Ubaldo Jimenez SP COL
I was thinking about Kershaw with this pick, but after carefully looking at the two pitchers stats Jimenez won by a hair. Jimenez is an extreme ground ball pitcher in a weak division. 200 Ks and improving skills speak to another great year in Colorado.

106

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:09

for Goldcoach
7.07 Gordon Beckham 3B CWS
Round Seven pick #103 overall. Getting to that point where filling positions becomes significant. There’s still a lot of OF left so its narrowed down to IF Positions & I have a first and second sacker on board already. The SS position doesn’t offer much value in this round so its a choice between 3B & C. Both Wieters and Beckham are rising in my queue as the draft progresses. At the turn they reach the top of my queue, and stay there! Why Beckham over Wieters? The drop off at catcher is dramatic after Matt, whereas the 3B spot has a couple of good players still out there. I count the potentially productive 3Bs left, I look at the picks between now and my next pick and see that in all likelihood they will be gone before it gets back to me again. So it actually comes down to head to head. I see more ABs for a third sacker, less risk of injury, and more SBs. Decision made.

107

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:10

for filthy
7.08 David Aardsma RP SEA
I didn't really know where to go with my lacking offense, so I was waiting out the turn before setting up a queue, then there was a fast turn, meanwhile somebody lost track of time. So before I knew it, I had almost timed out, and hadn't set up a queue, so I just went with the lone name remaining from the previous round: David Aardsma.

I had always considered drafting Aardsma in the 25th round despite only knowing his team, position and that he was the top guy on the queue list. You can only see a name so many times before it finds a home in your subconscious mind.

So here I am this year, with a chance to legitimately draft the Hank Aaron of pitchers, near the beginning of the closer run, but it seemed like a reach with Heath Bell around. Aardsma is more of a backup closer in my mind. Lucky for me, one round later, after years of wishing, my subconscious mind finally got its wish: David Aardsma!

For the record, I think Aardsma should be able to turn in a great season. Seems a good bet to hold his job and come near last year's numbers, might even improve with the improvements made all around him. I planned on 2 closers also, so that's another obstacle out of the way. This was not merely a rushed pick.

...I am clearly a pitcher-holic though.

108

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:10

for Species
7.09 Clayton Kershaw SP LAD
Phew.....by the skin of my teeth, the last SP in a tier of SP's I had in my head barely made it back to me. When I made my Carlos Lee pick at 6.08, I thought that the group of SP's available were all "close enough" to where one of them would come back to me, and as long as one did I would be happy. This included Clayton Kershaw, Tommy Hanson, Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco (although I had hoped to snatch him a little later) and Ubaldo Jimenez - not necessarily in that order. I felt I was safe with a 1-man Kershaw queue when filthy came up, but I had to endure a nearly 6-hour wait, and I thought for a while he might just be crazy enough to take his 4th SP in 7 rounds. I'm glad he didn't.

Out of that group I mentioned, only Tommy Hanson would have for sure been taken by me ahead of Kershaw, although they each have their own strengths, weaknesses and upside. I follow prospects pretty closely for the G20 league, so I've loved Kershaw from afar for over 3 years. His stuff is filthy, especially from the left side. He's basically Cole Hamels, with the possibility of being better if he gains more control.

Borrowing from someone else, in the weak NL West, where you get to face the Padres and Giants a ton, having SP's in that division is not a bad way to go.

I never wavered from taking my first SP here.

109

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:11

for JL
7.10 Matt Wieters, C, Bal

Do I join the closer run by taking Trevor Hoffman or go with the potential of Matt Wieters?

Hoffman has been solid and probably would have been the smarter pick, but I just couldn’t make myself pull the trigger on him. I assumed there would still be a decent closer available at 8.07, but Wieters would probably be gone by that point.

Wieters was the one player available that has the potential to become a top 40 fantasy player this season. He destroyed MLB pitching in September last season, so hopefully it carries over into the entire 2010 season.

110

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:11

for JeffG
7.11 Francisco Cordero RP CIN
Grabbed my second closer, before the options become more of a gamble next time around on a guy who will have a few question marks. Cordero should have job security, is not in his declining years, and is not nursing an injury or have injury history. I chose him based on last year saving 40 games for a 78 win team. I'll be happy here with 30. Two full time closers should net me a good team base in saves and allow me to return my draft focus to building the rest of my fantasy team and not anguishing on later closer options.

111

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:11

for Tilt
7.12 Javier Vazquez SP NYY
Was actually pleased to see him fall here. I know everyone remembers his bad run to end his last stay in the bronx but he played half a season well that year and by all accounts is a different pitcher now, not relying on his fastball as much with the best control of his career. Even with a drop in K's he should still be north of 200 and he is pitching for the best offense in baseball. He is coming off a career year and I am counting on him producing like a number 2 SP.

112

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:52

for Dave R
7.13 Wandy Rodriguez SP

113

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:53

7.14 Yunel Escobar, SS, Atl
I struggled with this pick. There are a lot of better hitters available, but the ranks of middle infielders are thinning, and so this is a value-based selection. There are enough reasonably comparable 1B and OF that I can wait on them.

The other option is pitching. I could nab a third closer, but there are still enough available that I should be able to do that in the 9/10 round – and I may not want to go that route anyway. The other option I considered was Wandy Rodriguez. I knew picking right behind Dave R was going to be frustrating.

So Escobar it is. I’m not thrilled with this pick, but sometimes a guy’s gotta do what a guy’s gotta do.

114

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 19:53

for TD
7.15 Josh Hamilton OF
If Hamilton can remain healthy, he has potential to put up numbers like 2008 again. I thought he was worth the risk at this spot in the draft.

115

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 23:08

for holt
7.16 Jake Peavy, SP, ChW
Only had Hamels so far so needed another SP here. I don't think I've ever had Peavy on a team before. Never followed him closely. I prob would have taken Wandy R. but Dave R grabbed him 3 picks earlier. Was really hoping Kershaw would make it here but it wasn't to be.

Peavy is downgraded due to going to the AL and past injury problems. At the end of rd 7 I'm willing to give him a shot. When he's on the mound, he's a stud, and all indications atm are that he is healthy and using his full repertoire.

I looked at Billingsley pretty closely. Rotoworld seems to be pretty high on him. I just couldn't find any reason to convince myself to pull the trigger.

Brett Anderson might have been an OK pick here but it was too early for me to take a shot in the dark like that. Maybe if he had stuck around another 2 rds.

8.01 Carlos Marmol, RP, ChC
Closers are so valuable in this league, but no one really likes having to draft one. It's like going to the doctor, or getting an oil-change. You want to skip it or put it off, but you'll be sorry later. 16-team league, 30 closer jobs... I waited til rd 8 to pull the trigger and I get stuck with, omg, Carlos Marmol. I hate wild pitchers. I hate the Cubs. I hate Marmol, in particular. Unfortunately, he was the best option left. The rest of the Cubs bullpen is amazingly bad compared to previous years. Even when he's walking the bases loaded, Marmol should be pretty secure in his job. All I can do is hope that he gains skill in throwing strikes, or gains a pair of testicles and loses his fear of throwing one through the strike zone.

116

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 23:09

for TD
8.02 Raul Ibanez, OF, Phi
Ibanez started off last season like an MVP, but struggled with injuries from the middle of the season on. He had offseason hernia surgery. Ibanez keeps himself in great shape, and I believe he will come back strong despite being 37 years old.

117

Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Mar 19, 2010, 23:09

8.03 Chad Qualls, RP, Ari
If nothing else, I’m going screw up someone else’s draft.

My third closer. This wasn’t necessarily the plan. Before Dave R took Wandy Rodriguez, I was planning to nab him here. But there is no other starter that I feel strongly about, and there are quite a few similar pitchers that I expect to be here next time around.

Ditto for hitters.

I’m not sure there will be any quality closers still around when I pick next, and it will be a nice luxury to start the season with three. Is it a luxury I can afford? I dunno. But decent closers do have trade value during the season, so I feel pretty confident that taking a quality closer here will provide some trade flexibility during the season if there are other areas I need to fix.

118

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 09:41

for Dave R
8.04 Trevor Hoffman RP Mil

There had been a serious dent in viable closers, some of the ones left had either injury concerns or other issues. I think in this format, unless you plan on tanking the saves category, you need at least 2 reliable sources of saves.

So Trevor it is. If Mariano, at his age can keep chugging along, why not Trevor? He converted 37 save opportunities out of 41 last year and his best ERA in 12 years and a career low ERA.. He just doesn't record the K's you expect from most closers

Milwaukee just signed him to a one year deal, so he's the man for the Brewers and a nice complement to Soria on my team

119

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 09:42

for Tilt
8.05 Erick Aybar SS LAA
Ok this was a panic pick. We all have them and this was mine. I will spend more time writing this post then I did making that pick. I didnt have a SS and it was looking really really thin. All I could thikn about was getting stuck with someone just dreadful. I see Aybar as ok. He wont hurt me and I needed a couple SB's. He could even take over the leadoff role left by Figgins which would make this pick look good. That is what pushed me over the edge to take him. However I might look back and hate myself for taking him here too if he craters or a couple other SS last a little longer. I was going to take my first closer but by now, as usual, I am behind the curve on the closers. That probably will turn out to have been the smarter play but picking closers is tricky every year and I have been permanently scarred by brad lidge

121

JeffG
ID: 47112621
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 09:57

8.06 Brett Anderson SP Oak

There were many ways to go with this pick. SS is drying up, but based on the options left, I'm not missing out by waiting. OF and SP have a bunching of similar players, and there is Chipper Jones, whom I was leaning towards. I noticed that the 10 managers who pick twice before I go again already have a 3B so I'll take a chance and wait. So I went with a SP and chose the youngster. The various projections for him are all over the map, but combine a young A's pitcher with adjectives like 'top prospect' and 'future ace' have me thinking of some of his recent Oakland predecessors. Even if he is a year away from a breakout season, Brett potentially can deliver solid numbers now, and worth the risk instead of a safer pick.

122

filthy
ID: 591332022
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 13:24

for JL:
8.07 Frank Francisco, RP, Tex

I don’t particularly like Francisco; I really just had to take a closer with a safe job and he happens to suck the least of the remaining pieces of closer trash. He’ll get injured and post crappy ratios when he’s healthy. But I didn’t want to chase saves all year, so I reluctantly chose him. It’s like trying to pick the prettiest of the crackwhores on the street corner. “Well this one looks like she has a few more T-cells than that one, so I guess I’ll take her.” Huston Street would work, but it looks like he won’t be back on the corner until May, and I need it now.

123

filthy
ID: 591332022
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 13:25

for Species:

8.08 Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD

If not for his mid-August/September swoon last year, Billingsley would have easily been a much higher pick. With a 16-win, 201k, 3.14 ERA season under his belt (in 2008), there's no reason this workhorse-built right hander cannot return to a 200k, 3.50-ish ERA with 14 wins this year. As with Kershaw, pitching half of his games in friendly Dodger Stadium, with a fair amount against the NL West patsies, I like his chances for a good season.

While I wouldn't have taken him over Billingsley, jeffg again takes a target of mine for later in Oakland's Brett Anderson. Jerk! ;)

124

filthy
ID: 591332022
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 13:39

8.09 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL

Time for an outfielder. 28th outfielder taken! If he had played the whole year last year, Carlos Gonzalez would definitely be drafted higher. That is what I am banking on here.

A full season of this guy in Coors. Makes me drool thinking about it. Worst case scenario, he has some pretty defined platoons. Best case scenario, he matches his second half numbers, where he homered or stole at will once he took over a regular role.

I can't see this guy not winning a starter's role this season, and putting up some numbers. The cost to acquire him and the environment he ended up settling in is almost too perfect. The Rockies (and my outfield) have got a winner.

125

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 15:58

for Goldcoach

8.10 Johnny Damon, OF, DET
Round 8 Pick 122. Well I was right that Wieters would not get back to me. The other Catchers left should be there for a few more rounds so I'll go back to looking at stats. Damon offers fair stats across the board without hurting me in any category. Leading of in Detroit should give him opportunity to do some running and scoreing. Yes I know he's getting older, which is probably why he's still on the board, but its hard to ignore his potential after batting 2nd for a few years.

126

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 16:00

for MBT

8.11 Chris Coughlan, OF, FLOR
Continuing to fill out the OF at this point. Coghlan has a great eye and I really need to keep on my OBP guys at this point in the draft. I can't really afford any .330 or below type of guys on my roster if I want to stay competitive in that category. He may move to 2B at some point this year, since that was his minor league position which would make this an even greater value pick.

127

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 16:01

8.12-Octovio Dotel, RP, PIT

The ranks of closers were getting thinner and thinner by this time. Dotel appears to be healthy and has no one waiting to take his job if he should go through a bad stretch

128

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 16:23

8.13 Scott Baker, SP, MIN

It was tough to pass on Hunter Pence but since I have focused so much on offense pitching was my priority. Baker was on my squad last year and after a rough first half, he came on really strong after the ASB. Just like Nolasco, I am hoping that second half is more indicative of his potential. Baker should post high wins and K’s and a low ratios.

129

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 16:42

8.14 Brian Fuentes, RP, Ana

If Scott Baker was still around I would probably have taken him with this pick. I would have preferred to bolster my starting rotation, but I didn't like anyone else here. I really felt I needed another closer that had a firm lock on the job… and Fuentes was the closest I could get. I had his name entered in kafenatid, erased it, typed in Hunter Pence, erased it, and went back to Fuentes. If he keeps the closer job all year I'll be happy with this pick - if he doesn't (and his numbers last year in Anaheim were nothing compared to what they had been in Colorado) then I'll be hurting.

130

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:26

8.15 Adam Jones OF BAL

Did I miss a memo on Adam Jones? Here we are 143 picks into the draft, and he remains unselected. He is ranked #62 at ESPN. #78 at rotowire. #115 at cbs. An ADP of 105.5. He's only 25 years old, and is the epitome of upside. I'm writing down 25 HR, 80 RBIs, and 90 Rs, knowing that is bottom end. An OBP of .330 is a little concerning. It's time for this star to bloom.

131

Tequila
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:27

8.16 Julio Borbon OF TEX
i chose a lead off with some good avg and sb capabilities. also for borbon i'm hoping for an improvement and maybe i drafted too early.

9.01 Ryan Franklin RP STL
i was a little undecided if choosing an sp or an rp. i ended up with a closer, however i see people are not too high on franklin for this year...

Well considering i drafted [undrafted] last year, maybe i should have to think about drafting him too just to cover my back....

132

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:29

9.02 Howie Kendrick 2B ANA

Having already drafted a 2B and SS, some may question of the drafting of another 2B this early in the draft, while I have pitching needs and it's 30 more picks until I'm up again. But I was able to earn this year's invitation to RIBC with the same strategy last year (Aaron Hill as a MI). It gets pretty thin at MI really soon. I'd rather fill the required MI slot with an actual complete player, rather than a defensive no-bat player. A handful of pitchers were considered as well, but I'm guessing I can get a SP/CL combo my next turn.

133

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:41

for Slackjawed Yokel

9.03 Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
Heading into this pick I wanted to get either Pence or Adam Jones. There was another OF I was looking at, but I really wanted one of these two. With Tequila taking the guitarist from Tool and Tosh getting an infielder I was able to land my second OF. Pence put up very solid numbers last year - he's another guy that will get me 15 or so steals in addition to hitting for solid OBP and SLG. I keep expecting this guy to break out though - I had him in a couple of leagues last year and he can be fairly streaky. I think he'll keep showing improvement this year as he enters his prime.

134

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:42

9.04 Bobby Jenks, RP, CWS

My game of chicken with closers is over. This is the latest I have ever waited before drafting a closer. It was part of my strategy coming into the draft, but I have to admit that while I saw all the closers start to disappear, there was a large pit in my stomach. As of this pick, drafting a 2nd closer looks questionable; there are just not many left out there. Waiting was the plan, but I knew I didn’t want to punt saves, so this seemed like the last round that I could count on a decent closer being available. Jenks is battling injury to boot, so who knows how this pick will shape up in the end. I am hopeful though, that Jenks at least shakes the calf problems and at least can be counted on for 30-35 saves.

135

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 21:58

9.05-Evereth Cabrera, SS, SDG

I had decided to use these early middle rounds to fill my MI and CI positions which I had neglected since picking Ryan Zimmerman in the 2nd round. Even though I took a hit on the other hitter categories, I could not pass up Cabrera’s SB potential. Michael Bourne was still available, in fact he was the next player taken, but I already had four outfielders.

136

MBT
ID: 523302621
Sat, Mar 20, 2010, 22:06

9.06 Matt Garza, SP, TB

The only thing Matt Garza didn't have last year was wins. A lousy 8 win season while pitching 200+ innings, 170 Ks with a sub 4.00 ERA. Take those numbers and double his wins and you've got a pitcher comparable to Josh Beckett or Yovani Gallardo. This is nice value for a #3 starting pitcher.

137

filthy
ID: 591332022
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 09:24

for Goldcoach:
9.07 Michael Bourn, OF, HOU
Well. I've passed on steals so often already that I need to make up some lost ground. His OBP improved last year giving him plenty of opportunity to use his speed. I'm hoping he can maintain that same batting eye, and improve slightly in percentages of successful steals as he's got better at reading pitchers and situations; coming close to 60 SBs; Not much power here though so anything less than 45 SBs would be a disappointment.

138

filthy
ID: 591332022
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 09:34

9.08 Nick Johnson, 1B, NYY

I really needed an infielder here. Most picks felt like a reach. Kendrick or Alex Ramirez would've been nice choices, but I really like Johnson above all remaining first basemen for some reason.

Might bat 2nd for the Yanks is enough reason actually. Major roll of the dice here, but if he plays, Nick Johnson will be huge. For my team. Real world: he'll be pretty huge in at least one way.

Offense is starting to take shape now. Lots to choose from but not a lot jumping out at me.

139

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:28

9.09 Todd Helton, 1b, COL

"MUST...........RESIST..........JUICY........OBP"

This was probably going to be a turning point for me in this draft. By this time I had basically decided I was punting saves -- or at least not overdrafting these bums that, by now, have as much of a chance of losing their jobs as they do keeping them all year. The closer frenzy had opened up some real opportunity to fix my pitching staff as well as stock up on some hitting. Plus, as I learned in the 2009 RIHC, punting a category (FT% with Howard) is kind of a fun way to go through the year.

So with this pick I had to try to resist the urge to get an old fart like Helton or Chipper or go with the "smart play" of taking a preferred SP. I liked Ryan Dempster and James Shields on the board, and felt they, along with maybe Lackey, offered a material boost over the next tier.

In the end I couldn't resist taking Helton and hoping for another 2009 from him. Hell, at 90% of his 2009 counting stats production (86 RBI, 79 runs) to go with his usual .410+ OBP would make him a steal at this pick. If he slugs .450 and gets 500 AB's I'll be thrilled.

140

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:34

for JL
9.10 Michael Gonzalez RP BAL
He’s the last closer available with a reliable job. I just felt that I should finish complete the category so I could move on to other areas. This is probably a round or two early for a guy like him, but the closer run came fast in this draft and I didn’t expect him to last another round.

141

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:35

for JeffG
9.11 Alcides Escobar SS Mil

Look at my 8.06 rationale.

....and there is Chipper Jones, whom I was leaning towards. I noticed that the 10 managers who pick twice before I go again already have a 3B so I'll take a chance and wait.

Yes, Chipper made it back as anticipated, but during the ensuing picks, I realized I better address two needs: A shortstop while there are a few low middle tier guys left, and a SB contributor. I am not thrilled with this pick, but no one who picks a SS in these rounds are, especially when you sacrifice RBI, OBP, and SLG for SB and R. Escobar is projected to bat second so he'll have some great RBI hitters batting behind him for Milwaukee. Chipper made it back to me next round.

142

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:35

for Tilt
9.12 Leo Nunez RP FLA
Ok I finally decided to read the rules for this league and found out that saves are a category. Up til this point it was apparent I didn't care about them and I can only hope that this spare helps me in some way. The good thing about him is he is healthy and has a job, the bad things are to numerous to mention.

143

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:36

for Dave R
9.13 John Lackey SP Bos

Ugh, a hated Boston player. But Lackey was the highest rated pitcher I had left on my list. There are concerns as he's had injury issues the past two years, but I have to think the Sox feel relative confident he's good to go.

He should be a good source of wins playing in Beantown, his ratios are OK, not great and I'll take whatever K's come my way. If he can keep up with the 7.1/9 he recorded last year, I'll be satisfied with this pick

144

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:37

9.14 Ryan Dempster, SP, ChC
The typical appointed round for my first starting pitcher.

I don’t know why, but I’ve always had good pitching success waiting until this late to start drafting SPs. For example, last year I ended up 5th in total pitching points in spite of drafting hitters in 7 of the first 8 rounds. Had I taken a second closer among those top 8 picks, I‘d have probably ranked second in pitching. I’ve had similar results in other years – enough so that this is one strategy that I’ve stuck with pretty consistently. If only I could pick hitters as well…

There is nothing spectacular about Dempster. He benefits from pitching in the NL (no trades to the A.L., please!), he has decent ratios, and he fans almost 9 batters every 10 innings. He’s 33, so I’m not really expecting an age-related decline.

Curiously, I see that the earliest he was drafted in either of the AAA leagues was the early 12th round. Maybe I could have waited until the late 11th, but he looks to me like the best option right now, so I’m not going to take a chance – and there really isn’t any other available pitcher that I think should be drafted now.

James Shields would have been my backup, but I prefer Dempster for the league benefit, if nothing else.

145

TD
ID: 72121722
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:53

9.15 Brad Lidge, RP, PHI
Lidge followed a strong 2008 season where he didn't blow any saves with a terrible 2009 season where he blew 11 saves. I attribute most of his problems to a change in mechanics because of injuries. While I don't expect another 2008, I expect him to be stronger than 2009 and remain the Phillies closer get 30-40 saves.

146

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:41

for holt
9.16 Huston Street RP COL
By the time this pick came around, reports were out that Street's arm is fine, no structural damage. That's enough for me, as there is basically nothing left on the closer scrap pile but Schrodinger cats, so to speak. Brad Lidge just went off the board the pick before this one, if that tells you anything. Having only Marmol at this point, I was all over this. He'll prob start the season on the Dl, but shouldn't be there too long.

10.01 James Shields SP TAM
Hamels and Peavy might be great for me, but it's no sure thing, so I figured I better keep filling out my pitching staff while there are still good pitchers to be had. I also strongly considered Oswalt and Weaver here. Thought Shields might have a little better upside. Projections such as chone, zips, and rotoworld all look pretty good. Hopefully he was just on the unlucky side last season and his numbers will be closer to 2007 and 2008 than 2009's.

Wouldn't have minded having Jurrjens but I was thinking he might come back around again. I also still need 1B, 3B, CI, C, 2B, and MI, but the options were getting so weak, I figured we were in the tier levels on those positions where I may as well just wait.

147

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:43

for TD
10.02 Alexei Ramirez SS CWS
I usually start looking at positional needs at this point in the draft. Before this pick, I was just choosing the best player available and trying to get mix of pitchers and hitters. Since I didn't have a MI on my roster, I was looking primarily at this position.

Ramirez did not produce as well during his 2nd season in 2009 as he did during his rookie year of 2008. The one positive in 2009 was OBP that increased because of more walks. Ramirez showed improvement toward the end of 2009, and I expect more improvement in 2010.

148

Guru
ID: 330592710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:44

10.03 J.D. Drew, OF, Bos
I’ve had Drew on my radar since round 6. I’m not sure why he slides this late in drafts, but it may have to with his off-season shoulder surgery.

Hard to believe Drew is already 34. He’s got an unusual statistical profile. His OBP of .390 and SLG in the low .500s are quite strong for this format. He also scores about 80 runs a year, but has only knocked in about 65 for each of his years in Boston. I guess he takes too many walks with RISP. Regardless, he seems to be healthy, and I’m looking for a repeat of recent years – maybe with better health. I suppose that’s his biggest statistical weakness – the inability to stay healthy for a full season.

149

Tilt
ID: 462212018
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 17:56

for Dave R
10.04 Placido Polanco, 2B, Phi
Oh Boy, not at all happy with this pick, but I needed a 2nd baseman. As a bonus, two weeks into the season he should be 3rd base eligible. I would have taken Alexis Ramirez, but he was gone.

Polanco is getting up there in years, but hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. He now goes to a great hitters park, where presumably he'll bat 2nd between Rollins and Utley. A career .303 hitter, I'm thinking he gets to cross the plate 100 times. Not much pop left in the bat, but a decent OBP.

150

Tilt
ID: 462212018
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 17:58

10.05, Nyjer Morgan, OF, Was

He is a one trick pony for sure. light hitting leadoff hitter in the mold of pierre. I really had to make a decision whether I wanted to grab my SB's now, cause I didnt really have a big speed guy at all, or just hope to piecemeal it together throughout the year. I watched Bourn go off the board and even Borbon so knew he prob wouldnt last to me again and didnt want to risk it so went ahead and got my steals at least I know what im getting.

151

JeffG
ID: 47112621
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 18:26

10.06 Chipper Jones 3B Atl

I really almost took Chipper two rounds ago. There are two ways to look at Chipper's 2009 declining numbers and his lack of attention by my league-mates: The beginning of the end.....or....... the end. I make no argument that Chipper is going to resurrect his former greatness and you will see the words 'bounce back' nowhere further in this rationale, but I do expect a leveling off and better than the drop off of hot corner talent still available, as evidenced that it has been almost three full rounds since a 3B was drafted in our league. A repeat of last years numbers would mean Chipper should still have an overall positive effect on the ratios, and still batting in the middle of his team's lineup should generate 70s+ in R and RBI. Now to just stay healthy.

152

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:11

for JL
10.07 Nate McClouth, OF, ATL
Outfield is really all that I’m lacking at this point. I was looking at McLouth, Jay Bruce, Carlos Quentin, and Brad Hawpe. Quentin was taken just before me and I’m not convinced that Bruce will ever be able to improve his plate discipline enough to become a complete player. Hawpe has consistently posted solid numbers, but McLouth steals 20 bases a year and showed that he is capable of putting up huge numbers two years ago. It’s a tough call, but the steals pushed McLouth over the top.

153

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:12

for Species
10.08Juan Pierre, OF, CWS
This was a bad turn for Team Species, as a boatload of targets went since my last pick, including Dempster, Shields, A. Ramirez, Morgan and Chipper Jones. With Bourn gone and Morgan just statched up, this was perhaps my last chance to get a huge basestealer. I've "saved up" my OBP and SLG (in particular) for this moment, so I went ahead and took Pierre. He's in for quite a ride atop Ozzie Guillen's lineup, and I expect him to run wild for a minimum of 40 SB's. He proved to me last year when Manny was suspended that the dude can still hit and get steals in bunches. Hopefully he rewards me.

I had briefly considered one of the starters on the board like Weaver, Danks and Floyd but felt I couldn't pass on the steals.

154

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:14

for filthy
10.09 Martin Prado, 2B, ATL
I don't really know too much about Prado, but from what I saw, it seemed that he hit his way into a starting job in Atlanta. 2nd base in Atlanta has turned into a job stealing parade over the years come to think of it.

Last year's competition is out of the way, so I think Prado has a good shot of not having his job stolen until 2011. In the meantime, I think he will thrive with the expanded role this season. He seems like a type that isn't gonna let his chance pass him by, so I think he will reward the Braves faith in him with a great 2010.

The utility types that lack shortstop tend to be great in fantasy, with Prado being a great example of a 2B that hits like a 3B. Hopefully. The flexibility should be nice in April at least.

155

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:15

for Goldcoach
10.10 Carlos Quentin, OF, ATL
Why is he still on the board at pick 154? Projections have him at 82 Runs, 90 RBIs, .364/.500 OBP/SLG with two, count'em 2 steals thrown in. I can't pass that up so I ignore the infield positions and go for stats (I do have to play OF too).

156

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:17

or MBT
10.11 Jason Heywood OF, ATL
What's not to like about Heywood? I needed to fill in the rest of my OF and quite frankly, Heywood's upside is at least as good as any of the established guys still available. I'm not usually a Rookie kind of guy, but this one's too good to pass up.

157

loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:18

10.12-Jered Weaver, SP, ANA

I had planned on taking another infielder with this pick, but I decided to change direction and use my next two picks to firm up my pitching. The remaining infielders were not great, and I did not think that there would be a great drop in quality whether I used picks 12 and 13 instead of 10 and 11 for my infield.

158

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:33

10.13 Jose Lopez, 2B, SEA

As I was waiting to make this pick some closer injury news went public. It seemed like fate that my team in desperate need of RP #2 would catch a break. In the end, I ignored that temptation. Lopez seems like a good value this late. As a MI, his OBP and steals are detriments, but looking over the other available choices, there were not many players that I liked. It was going to be now for my 3rd MI, or 5-6 rounds later. At that point, it becomes a crapshoot. At least with Lopez, I feel like I know what I am getting. The addition of Figgins to Seattle should keep Lopez’s RBI opportunities on the high end.

159

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:47

10.14 John Danks, SP, CHW

I still only had one starting pitcher. There are still some fairly big names out there, but they all seem to be on the decline. I wanted a guy with already solid numbers who looks to be improving and Danks fit the bill. He hasn't put up huge strikeout numbers, but has had an ERA in the mid 3's each of the past two seasons.

160

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 22:37

10.15 Gavin Floyd SP CWS

So I have to leave my computer four picks before my turn, and plan on making my pick using my phone. I had everything all figured out. I would take either Weaver or Danks with this pick, and Floyd with pick 11.02. It was possible, but I considered unlikely that Weaver/Danks would both get picked. Oh well. Thanks guys. Since I was away, I just selected Floyd with this pick, and I'll have to re-evaluate 11.02.

Floyd is the #4 starter for the WhiteSox, but has the potential to be a top-30 pitcher. He had a solid second half in 2009, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts, partially because of a sharp drop in BB (1.9BB/9IP). I'm counting on 200 IP, 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Maybe it'll work out after all.

161

Tequila
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:12

10.16 Max Scherzer SP DET
scherzer is the third pitcher for det this year , i had a look at preaseason rankings and he was in a good position. I'm not too high this year for big names as sp, last year i had lee and shields and they were terrible. I prefer to look for good candidates that maybe they're going to have a good season. The k's were good a 176 last year so i decided to pick him up

11.01 Ryan Ludwick OF STL
not so many runs like 2008 for ludwick, but at least he's batting fifth after pujols and holliday. I'm hoping for a better season than 2009 for this year. Also he looks enough consistent for me

162

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:13

11.02 Jair Jurrjens SP ATL

It took awhile for me to finally decide on going the SP route for this pick. I originally intended to take two SPs on this turn, but like I said in my previous rationale, I intended on taking Floyd here. Is Jurrjens good enough, or should I take another hitter? But as I look at my draft sheet, I see a lot of SPs nearing the top of the list that have more negatives than positives. Jerrjens seems to have more positives, so I decided to take him.

I've never seen Jurrjens, nor can I pronounce his name. During his time in Atlanta, he has 27 wins, a 3.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 65 starts. He won't be an superstar, but he'll be a solid #3 SP for me. The only other SPs I considered were Burnett, Oswalt, and -undrafted-.

163

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:29

for Slackjawed Yokel
11.03 Adrian Beltre 3B BOS
I've already got A-rod at third, but looking at the available corner infielders, Beltre stood out to me. He'll be coming out of exile a bit from the hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field to Boston where the Green Monster should be a welcome sight. Plus, the Red Sox lineup should offer him abundant opportunities to drive in runs.

164

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:29

for Uptown Bombers
11.04 Alex Rios OF CWS
Rios is coming off a dreadful year. I don’t think he will repeat that. If I am right, this will be a great pick. At the very least, Rios continued to run last year. I’m expecting him to contribute in SB and have a bounce back year across the line. Maybe he won’t be the player that showed such great promise 3 years ago, but he is capable of producing bigger numbers than last year. He is having a great spring if you consider that important. I also considered Dexter Fowler as an alternative OF and continued to fight the urge to grab Chris Perez.

165

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:30

for loki
11.05 A.J. Burnett SP NYY
This pick is a continuation of my rationale for 10.12. Burnett should help with wins with the NYY offense in back of him, and is one of the few remaining SPs with a high strikeout rate. I considered Chris Perez with Kerry Wood being injured, but I already had two closers and felt that I could find saves either later in the draft or during the season on the waiver wire.

166

filthy
ID: 591332022
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:38

for mbt:
11.06 Chris Perez, RP, CLE

I was sweating this pick getting back to me. I had read about his temporary promotion to the closer role earlier in the day and was worried somebody else would grab him. He's got nasty stuff and has a legitimate shot at keeping the closer role if he can prove himself over the next 6-8 weeks.

168

GoldCoach
ID: 2421029
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:45

11.07 Jay Bruce, OF, Cin

Still ignoring the infield and picking up some more power in the OF with this selection. Bruce showed some really good potential last year, and hopefully will improve a bit more with another season and another spring training b3ehind him. Loking to get 75+ Runs, 80+ RBIs, 5+ SBs, .333 OBP, and .525 SLG. Not bad for overall pick 167.

169

filthy
ID: 591332022
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:04

11.08 Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN

Carlos Quentin, Jose Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce. All good picks that I might've had a chance at if I had played things a bit differently. Some of my rostered players might have still been around, even in the 13th. Really been eyeing Quentin and Lopez for awhile.

Cuddyer really snuck up on me. Somewhere in between my picks, I noticed how good his year was last year. Couldn't really see how he's slipped, especially with the CI eligibility. Perfect for my team right now.

The 16 picks after this were mostly heartbreakers, but I kept finding reasons not to draft most of them in the past rounds. Theriot caught me off guard, really nice choice. I couldn't find any reason not to draft Cuddyer though. Heart of the Twins lineup is really scary, and Cuddyer should remain in the middle of the action.

170

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:14

11.09 Roy Oswalt, SP, HOU

No longer a true ace, with declining K/9 and a serious back injury last year, still Oswalt is expected to put up strong ratios in the 3.70 ERA and 1.25-1.30 WHIP range. 12 wins and those ratios will fit nicely into my rotation here.

I would have taken many of the SP's that went before me, including Danks, Floyd and AJ Burnett. Oswalt's a decent consolation prize.

171

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:47

for JL
11.10 Brad Hawpe OF COL
Well I nearly took him a round ago, so it was a no-brainer here since I only have one outfielder. I’m falling behind in slugging and his .500 Slg% doesn’t hurt. Honestly I’m not sure why Hawpe falls so late every year in fantasy drafts. He’s pretty consistently productive and he’s only 30.

172

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:48

11.11 Scott Kazmir SP LAA

Ok Species - you got one of mine. I was going to be away for half of Sunday so 3 away I needed to finalize a 3 player queue. Focusing on OF (I still have none) and SP, spent my morning setting up Hawpe & Oswalt, then as a safety needed a third name that I spent a little less time working out (Kazmir, Webb, Fowler, Kubel, Beltran, Buckholtz were among the top of my queue). Kazmir is as good as any of the other solid crapshoots at this point. If he pitches all season could be among the AL top-10 leaders in Ks and on a competitive team in a division with no offensive juggernauts can hopefully keep his ERA around or under 4.00 and win double digits. It is a small sample size, but his numbers were night and day, much improved after going from Tampa to Anaheim getting out of the AL East. Something I'll hang my hat on with this pick.

173

Tilt
ID: 3924312
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:01

11.12 Ryan Theriot, SS, Chc

He solidifies my MI postion as well as anyone at this point. Gives you good OBP with 20 SBs and hits at top of the order so 80+ runs. He is having a great spring and new hitting coach Rudy Jarimillo from rangers is there now. I have seen Rudy take average hitting infielders like Derosa and give them career years at the same age as Theriot. Not saying it will happen here but I like the upside.

Was looking at Oswalt for another SP here or possibly that idiot Swisher but Oswalt got taken few picks before and I can wait for OF bat, MI is dried up.

174

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:55

for Dave R
11.13 Adam LaRoche, 1B Ari
Besides a first baseman and third basemen, we need an additional player to occupy a CI slot. In looking over the hitters, Laroche was one of the highest hitters left on my list, and the rest of the list were primarily outfielders. Why not solve a positional need.

Adam split the season between Pittsburgh and Atlanta ( with a one week stop in Boston ), totaling 25 HR's and 83 RBI's. Those totals were evenly split between the two teams. But in Atlanta it took 112 less AB's and his batting average was .325, supporting his notoriously strong 2nd half's.

He's now employed by Arizona, most likely batting 5th in the order in a great offensive ballpark and is in a contract year. All thing point to a season of 25-30 HR's, 90-100 RBI's and ratios that won't hurt you.

175

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:56

11.14 Kelly Johnson, 2B, Ari
I’ve had my eye on Kelly for awhile. I don’t know if this is too early to take him, though. He doesn’t seem to be very highly ranked in most of the projections, and he’s coming off a dreadful year.

But he’s now on Arizona, he’s only 28, and he’s slated to be the everyday second baseman. Hopefully, last year’s woes, some which were injury related, can be a thing of the past. With both of the teams on the turn still open at 2B, and most of the alternatives looking pretty weak, I decided not to play chicken. My experience in this league is that, if you want someone, you won’t get him if you wait for a bargain price.

BaseballHQ.com projects him at 88/72/12/.348/.483. This will be a home run pick if anything like that comes to pass. They also note that he’s moving from a home park that is tough on LH power, and going to a ballpark that is favorable to LH power. He’s got an OBP of .400 thus far in spring training, and although he hasn’t shown much power yet this spring, I’m still going to jump in here and claim my last starting middle infielder.

176

TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 14:11

11.15 Jorge Cantu, 3B, FLA
I didn't have a 3B on my roster, and I thought Cantu was significantly better than the next available. I was very concerned that Guru would choose Cantu with pick 11.15 because Guru did not have a 3B on his roster either. I expect Cantu to put up some good RBI and SLG numbers. It also helps that he is 1B eligible.

177

TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:27

for holt
11.16 Nick Swisher, 1B, NYY
A lot of players that I had been eyeing were taken since my last pick (30 picks ago). Alexei, JD Drew, Chipper, Prado, Quentin, Heyward, Weaver, Cuddyer, Laroche, etc. etc. Very few of my long range plans for this draft are coming together. I still didn't have any 1B or 3B so it was time to start addressing that. Wasn't impressed with 3B's right at this point, 1B's I was looking at were Swisher, Konerko, Ortiz, and Garrett Jones. Now I'm starting to wonder why I chose Swisher over Jones. Yankee better than Pirate maybe? Ah well. I feel pretty good about Swisher. New Yankee Stadium is treating him well (.371 .498 last season). If I can get similar production from him this year, that's not bad from the 176th overall pick.
12.01 Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
My only MI at this point was Jose Reyes. I didn't like any of the MI available really. I'm not overjoyed with Furcal, but at some point you have to fill out the lineup. MI is usually something I fix during the season. I'm not worried about it.

I'm expecting better numbers from Furcal this year. Last year he played hurt, in constant fear of hurting his back again. This year he says he is 100%. I think the power numbers and the steals should be much better this year. He has basically been hurt the last three seasons (ankle, then his back). I think he can still put up 2006'ish numbers (.369 .445 37 SB). Well, not sure about the 37 sb, but 20-25 seems doable. And what was up with that 1.012 OPS in his abbreviated 2008 season? Anyway, at 12.01 any MI pick is going to be iffy. Furcal really was the only MI still available that I could stomach at this pick.

178

TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:27

12.02 James Loney, 1B, LAD
I needed a CI, 2B, MI, and C to fill out my positions. I targeted SS Furcal for this pick, but Holt picked him at 12.01. Loney doesn't have string power numbers for a CI, but is average in Rs, RBIs, and OBP and is not in much danger of losing his starting job.

179

Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:33

12.03 Brandon Webb, SP, Ari
A high risk, high reward pick. He’s coming back from a busted season and shoulder surgery, hasn’t pitched in a game yet this spring – and isn’t expected take the mound until late April (at the earliest). So far, reports are good on his recovery, but there is no doubt that this is a risky pick, with the potential to produce anything from an 0-fer-2010 to a complete return to form. Most likely result is somewhere in between.

I’ll take that risk. Worth a 12th round pick? I dunno.

Looks like I’m going to become an Arizona fan this year, as he’s the third D-back on my squad.

180

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:01

For Dave R
12.04 Clay Buchholz SP BOS

I needed to start thinking about adding another pitcher to my staff. There were allot of pitchers I could have chosen, I'm not sure what drew me to Buchholz. Maybe adding another RedSox starter, maybe it was his strong 2nd half.

Forced to wait his time while Boston tried Penny and Smoltz, when Clay finally got the chance, he allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of 16 starts. So maybe I was banking on continued improvement. Time will tell, he's had an awful spring.

181

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:02

for tilt
12.05 Rich Harden SP TEX

placeholder

182

JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:05

12.06 Dexter Fowler OF Col

Fourty-four outfielders drafted through 182 picks, time to join in with my first. This was not by design, looking back through my picks, it seems like there was always a more pressing need, or a higher player on my board. Out of available outfielders, also looked at Kubel, Beltran, and a few deeper into the OF pool. Beltran is tempting, but I'm just afraid of the 'Early May' news and may have taken him if I had some other OF already, just can't pull the trigger for my first one. Fowler is a speedy player who gets on base, he had 27 SB last season (and was caught 10 times), and is expected to be batting #2 for the Rockies. Not much expected on the SLG and RBI categories, but that should be balanced out by the lumbering offensive players at 1B/3B I've drafted early.

183

JL
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 19:39

12.07 Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Tex

I really wanted Dexter Fowler here, but he was taken one pick ahead of me. Davis is purely an upside pick. He has absolutely destroyed minor league pitching and, at times, has done the same to major league pitching. He’s having a nice spring training for the Rangers and has the potential to put up 100 RBI, .330 OBP, .550 SLG. Of course there’s also a pretty good chance that he’ll post a .294 OBP, .440 SLG with 375 strikeouts. We’ll see.

185

Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 19:46

12.08 Miguel Montero, C, AZ

Funny, as I awaiting JL's pick I narrowed my choices down to Marco Scutaro and Montero. I had no designs in particular to take a C here. I definitely had Scutaro as the highest ranked SS left, and with some dropoff to the stiffs below. But in the end, I felt Montero was atop the heap of the C pool, and this was getting about time to take him. He had gone earlier in most RIBC drafts, and I also felt that this might start a mini-C run, as only 4 teams had catchers at this point. It would be nice to be at the START of a run for once, instead of having to react to others.

I was right. Five of the six teams without a Catcher between this pick and my next all took a catcher in this turn of picks. I like getting a "difference maker" at a position of need instead of another filler at a position I already have.

Besides Scutaro - who went with the NEXT pick by filthy - I really liked the value that Jason Kubel had on the board. Yokel got a steal in him at 12.14

186

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:22

for filthy
12.09 Marco Scutaro, SS, BOS
Some major upside going off the board. I went with a safer pick here. Scutaro even has some upside of his own. Fenway and RedSox lineup is ideal. Batting 9th in that order is not a horrible thing.

Really needed a shortstop. Wish I could have had some of the outfielders that went here. If not for just picking Cuddyer, I would have also been on the Kubel train. 2 Davis' that I wish I could've had. Harden and Webb could be huge. I was shying away from Furcal for some reason.

I hate to root for a Red Sock, but I like how Scutaro plays, very good signing for them.

187

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:23

for Goldcoach
12.10 Mike Napoli, C, LAA
This was a queue pick. I use my queue to set up for about a full round, and as my pick draws closer I try to tweak it depending on who's gone and who's left. No matter what I do though it seems that the player third from the top is always the most appealing. In this case I was definitely looking for a catcher. I like Napoli's power! What I'm hoping is that Scioscia will let him play more this year. If that is the case he'll give me better stats than the others I had queued up along with him. So I reached for him by moving him up in my queue.

188

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:24

for MBT
12.11 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
Everybody needs a SS right? I'm hoping for 2008 Peralta and not the 2009 version. The position flexibility is a nice added bonus. He's consistently hit over 80 RBIs and I need some more counting stats at this point in the draft.

189

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:25

for Loki

12.12-Rajai Davis, OF, OAK

Another change in direction. I had planned on taking either a CI or MI with this pick, but decided that I really did not like the way my team was turning out. So I thought that I would shake things up and pick Davis who was the last player left with the potential for 40-50 steals.

190

Uptown Bombers
Donor
ID: 035616416
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:26

12.13 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL

An aging pitcher, coming off TJ surgery in 2008, and low K totals usually translate to strikes one, two and three. Yet, here I go drafting Hudson anyway. All reports seem to indicate that he is healthy this spring. His outings so far have been pretty good. If Hudson is healthy, he presents a solid chance at a high win total for a good Braves club, while also helping to bring my pitching ratios down. In my mind, this pick allows me to justify taking a high K, high ratio pitcher later in the draft. I just hope my choices there are still around in round 14, since I’m pretty sure that I’m picking a hitter next round.

191

Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 47227122
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 22:58

12.14 Jason Kubel, OF, Min

I only had 2 OF, and had actually considered Kubel three and a half rounds ago when I drafted Pence. Unlike Pence, Kubel is fairly one-dimensional. But that one dimension is hitting… and that's pretty much all the categories but steals. I'm happy to get an OF that had a .907 OPS last year at this point in the draft.

192

Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 23:37

12.15 Geovany Soto C CHC

It's so frustrating when the manager right before you takes the only guy on your queue. Slackjaw just did it with Kubel. I had been considering Nolan Reimold as my back-up plan, but I didn't really do any research to support that decision. When I was suddenly faced drafting him, his 0-21 batting in Spring Training thus far kept me away for now.

I considered a number of other OF/CI/DH options, but the ones I liked provided a category that I'm not really lacking in (SBs), and the rest will all be available again in 3 more picks. I generally wait until the end to grab a catcher, but decided to bite on Soto. He was the 2008 NL ROY, but did not improve in 2009 while suffered some injuries. He reportedly lost 40 pounds this off-season and wants to show that last year was an anomaly. He hasn't shown the power yet in Spring Training, but is batting .400, so that's a positive sign.

193

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 23, 2010, 22:52

for Tequila
12.16 Garret Jones OF PIT

21 home runs for 350 at bats last year for jones. For this year he's batting third after mc cutchen and [undrafted]. I hope he's not just an one year only superstar. Also i had 10 sb, good averages and eligibility at 1b,of

194

Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Mar 23, 2010, 22:53

Rationales for rounds 13-25

Forum: basePage 20017Subject: RIBC 2010: Rationales (Rounds 1-12)

Forum: base
Page 20017
Subject: RIBC 2010: Rationales (Rounds 1-12)