The group of RB I was interested in were long gone by the time it got to me. Not surprising.

Looking at value above mean, the top three on my queue were: 1) Antonio Brown, 2) Odell Beckham, 3) JJ Watt.

And so I got my absolutely last preference of the seven listed, 7 slots away from the bottom.

1.08 Marshawn Lynch, RB, Sea: I knew my top 5 so the question here in planning was who to put 6-7-8.

I think I spent half of my pre-draft preparation deciding where to rank DeMarco Murray. He won’t be getting the humongous workload of last year but he could still be a top-six back if he lost 600 yards in rushing (but no touchdowns) . He’s said to be a runner more suited to Kelly’s system than McCoy was. In the end I was worried about his losing TDs as there are other options in the Red Zone. He was a question mark while Antonio Brown and Gronkowski were sure things.

That made the 6-7-8 Brown, Gronkowski and Murray.

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I wrote the above while waiting for pick 1.05 to be made, to be followed by 3 autopicks. Marshawn Lynch, #5 on my list, fell to me. All that rationization was wasted. Brown went at 1.06, Gronkowski was a steal for the defending champion at 1.13, and Murray was the potential steal of the draft at 1.14 for Guru. Oh how I wish I could have done better in the draft position selection lottery!

Marshawn is one of my least favourite players because of the way he loafed in Buffalo, complaining about the lack of night life, getting himself arrested, then having to be traded for almost nothing before deciding to exert himself with another team. But if he can help me win, I’ll take him.

5 would allow me to draft Antonio Brown, but made Watt very unlikely in the 2nd. I also didn’t love where that put me in the 3rd and 4th. 11 offered a meaningful chance at a dream opening of CJ Anderson and Watt, but it required too much to go right to happen. Slot 9 would basically ensure Anderson, but put Watt into very questionable territory.

I settled on Slot 13, which made me extremely likely to get JJ Watt and still allowed an outside shot at CJ Anderson or Forte. An extreme opening of Gronkowski/Watt is also on the table, which would certainly be a unique drafting experience. If all of my non-WR targets are gone, I will likely grab Watt at 13 and choose from the remaining WRs after the turn.

1.13 Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE: After all of that work determining the best draft slot for drafting JJ Watt, Fugazi went and ruined it by snagging the otherworldly DE at #12. The best laid plans… Anyway, it was back to the drawing board. All the RBs I would’ve taken here were gone, given the heavy emphasis on that position thus far. That left Gronkowski, Luck, and a bevy of elite WRs.

Rob Gronkowski is basically the offensive version of JJ Watt, though with an injury-prone label attached. Actually, that might make Troy Tulowitzki a better comp. And since I took the plunge and drafted him at #9 in RIBC AAA this year, it’s obviously a profile that appeals to me. A big negative is that I have later TEs I like a lot and see as likely values, and a pick of Gronk limits my ability to take advantage of that in later rounds.

Andrew Luck would represent a little bit safer version of the non-traditional start. I am not normally a proponent of taking QBs this early, but I don’t like the way the quarterback position is shaping up this year for 14-team leagues. In the past, I have always had one or two targets that I felt were being solidly undervalued by the marketplace. Russell Wilson has been one of those guys for the past two years. This year, I just don’t see it. Thus, Andrew Luck at the appropriate draft slot is much more interesting than usual. I am a strong believer in the Indianapolis offense this year, though I wish he had a longer track record of elite performance.

I fully expected to nab JJ Watt here. Fugazi really fried me when he jumped on Watt at 1.12. Then I thought maybe Gronkowski would slide to me, but of course, twilson took him at 1.13. That didn’t burn as much, because I had never expected him to slide this late.

All are special talents with strong track records and are being touted by various analysts. Jones was dropped fairly quickly due to his lack of a prior superelite (top 5 WR) season. I don’t doubt that he’s capable of such a year, but I don’t need to bet on improvement with alternatives like the other three guys.

Calvin Johnson is magnificent and currently healthy, but his playing style does leave him vulnerable to injury. I hope I get to own him in a league this year, but RIFC will not be the one.

Dez Bryant is my favorite of the three, as he is the only one of the three with elite results and health in 2014 having further upside. The RB situation in Dallas could easily mean a return to his 2013 target levels, and I still believe in the Cowboys offense due to their stellar O-line. If it weren’t for the hamstring strain he’s currently dealing with, he would’ve been the pick, but I prefer to avoid soft tissue injuries whenever another good option presents itself.

Green comes off a disappointing 2014 in which he was the 4th drafted WR, but the 26th WR in points. On a per play basis, however, he was as effective as in 2012-13. Injuries -- toe, arm, head -- deprived him of about 4 games. I’m hoping there’s no recurrence and he returns to that form.

I log on and see Cobb is still available. I also saw TY Hilton, but I have a rule against picking players on the Colts as I want to keep my real football rooting interest intact. I've had years where I'd get mad about a TD the Colts scored because it wasn't my player. This rule gets broken frequently (Just see G24).

Cobb felt like a no brainer. #1 WR in a pass happy offense with the best QB in the game? What could go wrong.

The two names that stood out most to me were Frank Gore and Lamar Miller. I also considered Ingram and Morris, but found them wanting in comparison. I really like Gore this year, as Indianapolis is a big step up for him in surrounding talent. For the most part, Colts RBs have scored very highly with Andrew Luck under center, and I consider Gore to be more talented than his predecessors.

Lamar Miller also offers strong expected performance. The Miami offense should continue to improve in their OC’s second year, putting Miller in a nice situation. The knock on Lamar Miller has always been that the coaching staff is hesitant to embrace him as a workhorse back, but I don’t see a lot of competition for snaps coming from his backups.

The WRs considered here were Matthews, Andre Johnson (4.03) , and Jarvis Landry. I shied away from Johnson because I’ve had too many disappointments from older WRs, like 2 last year who are still undrafted now. Landry went right after Matthews.

I had to spend more time away from a computer this August so I bought more FF mags this year to while away the time. Rotowire says “Mathews might be the most obvious breakout season in this year’s player pool." Fantasy Football Index says “a big stat jump looks unlikely.” Don’t look for me to be buying whichever one is wrong next year.

My loose pre-draft plan was to take my RB2 here, with Ellington as the likely target. There was also potential for me to go WR or TE. Once the pick actually arrived, the enticing WRs had left the board and owning Gronkowski ruled out TE. Too early for non-Watt IDPs, so that left RB and QB. Based on other RIFC drafts, I expected a number of quarterbacks to go in the 24 pick gap before my next selection, so going in that direction would allow me to get in at the top of the tier. If I don’t, then I will be one of the last to fill the position.

My top QB at this point is Russell Wilson. After a couple of years where he was nice and cheap, he is now being valued properly. I still see passing upside, especially if the Jimmy Graham addition pays dividends, but there is also clear rushing downside. In my mind, it roughly balances out.

As for RB, Ameer Abdullah has risen up the ADP charts to challenge Ellington. Arian Foster is another name worth contemplating, but I think he would be a better fit at the 5/6 turn. Again, might as well avoid soft tissue injuries if other good options are present.

Abdullah is my favorite of the rookie backs this year, and his preseason performance has added fuel to the fire. Also, Joique Bell remains on the PUP list with a mystery injury which could very well affect his play even after he finally makes his return. Picking Abdullah would be a bet that he will continue to take advantage of the opportunity in front of him and force the Detroit’s hand.

As much as Abdullah is climbing in ADP, Andre Ellington seems to be dropping down of late. I don’t really understand why, as he is healthy and the primary backup is dealing with injury concerns. I know that Arizona recently signed [undrafted], but I don’t view him as a threat to Ellington at this point in his career.

Ellington’s RIFC ADP last year was 29, so this pick would represent a one round discount. 2014 was an up and down year for him; he scored at a borderline RB1 level for the 12 games he played, but only put up 3.3 YPC and dealt with injuries all season long. Some believe that his body cannot withstand the grind of a full workload, but I’m not yet ready to pass judgment on that. Also, his line should be improved from 2014, which can only help. One year is a small sample size. What can a healthy Ellington do as a clear starter? I hope we find out this year.

From the beginning I had Ryan targetted for the fifth round, with [undrafted] in the 6th round as a fallback position.

But as the 4th round began I had to ask whether Ryan would make it back to me for the 5th round. He had made it to 5.08 in only one of the three other RIBC leagues. And my backup was no sure thing to make it to the 6th round either.

Eventually I wrote my intentions out in specifics:

If between 4.02 and 4.06,
--0 or 1 QBs were taken, I would pick an RB, Jonathan Stewart (4.14) if available.;
--3 or 4 QBs were taken, I would take Ryan if still there;
--2 QBs were taken -- ?

Sean Payton is treating his plans for Spiller like a vital state secret. I sure hope this isn’t a deception like the dummy airplanes and airfields England built during the 2nd World War. But he’ll take the departed [undrafted]’s role on third downs, put in a decent amount of time on earlier downs, and although he’s not a kick returner on the depth charts I have to think we’ll see him in that role along the way. I’d like to see him pick up 500-600 yards both rushing and receiving.

Bennett comes off a career year in yardage(916) and TDs(6), and is a favorite receiving target in Chicago. Last season, he ranked #6 in ppg in this scoring system, and two of the top five are in situations that make them unlikely to repeat.

Nelson Agholor stands out to me at WR. Though Jordan Matthews is getting all the buzz, Agholor is the one stepping into the flanker role vacated by Jeremy Maclin. There’s a real chance that Chip Kelly’s offense is structured to favor the flanker in the passing game, which would augur well for Agholor’s fantasy outlook. It’s also possible that the buzz is correct and Matthews will be the guy. Spending a 6th round pick to find out seems like a reasonable price to pay.

For IDPs, defensive backs are obviously off the table for a while. DL is interesting. I went into the draft wanting a pair of top DL highlighted by JJ Watt, but that plan went out the window very quickly. If I want to stick to that approach, grabbing Quinn or Chandler Jones here would make sense. I like them about equally. Quinn will be taken by the time 7.13 rolls around, so it’s now or never for him. There’s a meaningful chance that Jones will survive the turn.

The top two LBs went off the board right before this pick to Fugazi and Guru, so I’m left looking at the rest. There’s a big dropoff from Lavonte David to everyone else, even Kuechly. I’m normally a proponent of waiting on LB, as there is inevitably value throughout the draft and the regular season, but the true elites are a real difference maker. The question, however, is if anyone besides David and Kuechly qualify. I strongly suspect that a run on linebackers will occur over the next 25 picks, so picking something else means passing on the top tier.

I looked at a number of names, but only one stood out as having the upside necessary to invest such a high pick in my best dumpster diving category: NaVorro Bowman. There’s substantial risk in taking a player that missed an entire year with an ACL tear, but Bowman put up 12 ppg in 2013 and is now in a much better situation. The retirements of Willis and Borland mean that he has very little competition for tackles, and the 49ers should be a lot worse this year than they were back then. Given the same opportunity last year, Borland managed an incredible 16 ppg after Willis got hurt! I’m certainly not projecting Bowman to maintain that pace, but the fact that it is even possible is a huge point in his favor.

I've drafted Brady twice before, arguably his two worst years as a starter:

1) In 2008 when he blew out his ACL in the first game of the season.

2) In 2013 when he was mediocre all season, only throwing 25 TD's to 11 INT's.

In both situations however I drafted him much earlier than the 7th round so his 2013 performance would be a bit easier to stomach this season.

One more bullet... I am a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and am optimistic that despite the fact that the Bills have no real option at QB, they have a very good team otherwise, and may have a shot at contending in the AFC East. With that in mind, I figure Brady as my QB can go one of two ways...

1) His suspension is reduced, and even if it isn't, he comes back in game 5 with a chip on his shoulder and terrorizes the league, thus helping my fantasy team in the process.

2) His suspension is not reduced, and/or his play is mediocre, and/or he gets hurt again, as was the case the last two times he was my fantasy QB, in which case my fantasy team would suffer, however it would help the Bills out...

Getting what I saw as the #2 and #5 LBs could help in the long run on the IDP side.

If I don’t take Newton, I could go with my WR3 or DL1. With Chandler Jones out of play, no lineman stand out, but I’m sure there will be attrition before my next pick. My WR preference is Steve Smith, whose biggest competition for targets is an injured rookie. He may be far from his elite peak, but I think he’s got enough left in the tank to go out with a bang.

Miami generally heavily uses their TE, and think it could be even more than usual.

Had a plan going in, but as always, things end up getting fluid.

Being on the road and only able to look early morning(very short window) and then after work, have made this a much more challenging draft than I already knew it would be.

Injury: He's had significant injuries the past two seasons
Position: Dallas is moving him to weak side linebacker to try and preserve his health which may take a way a few tackle opportunities, but hopefully keep him on the field

I still like a pair of QBs, Eli and Rivers. The best RBs are Sproles for guaranteed production and Freeman/Duke Johnson from the committee ranks. All the traditional elite DBs remain available. DL is kind of a mess; I like Ninkovich best, but there are a few guys likely to be taken before him. LB offers Derrick Johnson, Clay Matthews, and Khalil Mack. I think Johnson will be taken soon, but the other two are likely to be around for a little while longer. WR is mostly old stalwarts (White, Boldon, [undrafted]) with Eric Decker and Markus Wheaton mixed in.

LB is too much of a luxury pick given the likely value later on. I want to like a defensive lineman enough to take one, but Ninkovich just doesn’t separate enough from the others to make it worth my while right now. I like Sproles here a lot, but I’ve already got three nice early round RBs. DB probably makes a lot of sense, but I just can’t bring myself to spend a top 10 pick on such a volatile position(Terrence McGee in his glory days excluded).

Duke Johnson is definitely the most intriguing RB. The coaches in Cleveland have been disappointed with the performance of Crowell and [undrafted] in camp, leaving the door open for the rookie to establish himself as the man. Unfortunately, he sustained a concussion in his first game back from a hamstring tear, leaving his status in limbo. As appealing as his opportunity is, I have trouble picking a rookie that doesn’t get to participate in training camp. Not that there haven’t been success stories (ODB last year in particular), but most players require at least something of a learning curve to get involved in an NFL offense.

Markus Wheaton was overshadowed last year by Martavis Bryant, but he wasn’t a total zero. Now Bryant is suspended for the first four games of the season, and none other than Ben Roethlisberger is singing his praises during camp. Plus, he still will likely return some kicks, depending on the usage of [undrafted]. At the same time, Roethlisberger set a career high by 600 yards last year, and the Steelers had almost no turnover in their receiving corps, so an increase in targets and yardage is far from guaranteed.

I’ll talk about the fourth player in my 12.02 rationale.

We are firmly into the backup RB lottery part of the draft, so I will wait a few turns and give others first dibs, cleaning up the leftovers at the end. WR makes sense since I only have three at the moment, but the current tier is very deep. I will likely get an equally good player at the 15/16 turn.

RB: I have 4, and at this point I’d just be speculating on injury-related opportunism. Doesn’t seem like a good use of a pick at this level.

WR: My weakest area, and some additional depth is necessary. I only have 3 WRs at this juncture.

TE: I’m happy with M. Bennett as my weekly choice, but I have no backup support yet.

IDP: I have two strong LBs, and one decent DL. Clearly, I have some needs to fill.

After scanning through the IDP options, I’m not seeing a lot of projected differentiation, and I am seeing significant variety in rankings by various IDP experts. So I don’t have a strong sense that anyone I pick in this turn will be materially better than anyone I pick at the next turn.

Most players I considered fell into one of two groups: veterans on new teams and return men with reception upside. Tyler Lockett was the big dropper by RIFC ADP standards. He went 160/127/148 in the other three leagues. Eddie Royal was not far off from that himself. The Dolphins duo of Stills and Parker were possibilities, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in that offense. Percy Harvin’s name came up, but he’s dealing with hip troubles yet again. I looked at [undrafted] and [undrafted]. Marvin Jones was quite appealing in his return from a lost 2014 season, but his ADP is a bit lower than some of the others.

I had trouble finding a player I wanted to take here. DB would make sense, but I haven’t really done my flier DB research yet. Fletcher Cox is a big ADP dropper, but I also have a couple deep sleeper DLs who would also make me happy. I could take a LB4, as there are a handful of players that keep dropping. Kwon Alexander and Stephone Anthony both have significant upside.

And what if he is traded? He couldn’t even make RB3 on Denver. Why should he matter to the Dallas RB situation? Again, more uncertainty.

I still thought about taking Ball here. But that just seems too speculative – even for a pick in rounds 19/20.

ence I missed out on Christine Michael. I" hope he bombs.