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Welcome to RotoGuru's 2021 Market Madness Contest!

For additional commentary on Market Madness Contest strategy and results, please check out the Market Madness message forum.

Monday, Apr. 5
Congrats to contest winner teeshf with a score of G$747. The winner of the Basket-Free Contest is Raz3, with a score of G$350.

The best possible score this year would have been G$1246. Baylor appears in only two representations on the long side (team and #1 seed basket), while the Big 12 basket produced a negative return. The best short this year was the Big 10 basket, while the top scoring long was the Pac 12 basket. Here is the complete list of units, sorted by net return.

Prize winners will be notified by email within the next week. Thanks to all for continuing to support this oldest of all RotoGuru Contests.

Friday, Mar. 19
There were 275 entrants this year, down about 36% from last year. Big covid-related "who cares" impact, I guess.

I’ve posted a sortable summary of 2021 unit selections. Click on any linked column heading to sort by that column. A few quick observations:

The favorite short is Michigan, followed by the #5 seed basket, Kansas, and the #3 seed basket.
The favorite long is Gonzaga, with almost twice as many longs as the next one, Illinois.
Gonzaga was also the most active unit, included as either a long or short on almost 70% of entries.
Every unit had some representation. The units representing the #16 seed "first four" teams were never longed, while Colgate was the only unit to never be shorted.

The standings will be updated periodically during each game day. Click on the standings link, and the number of games included will appear in the page heading. Remember that because cash received on shorts is part of your net return, entries with large short imbalances will appear at the top of the rankings at the start of the contest. After several rounds, most of those will drift down, unless their shorts have worked out very well. It is typical that some entrants position their picks with the apparent objective of gaining an early lead. Everyone seeks their 15 minutes of fame, I guess.

Friday, Mar. 19
All picks were locked-in at 12:15pm EDT today. If your picks do not seem to be recorded, please send an email to davehall@rotoguru2.com. It would be helpful if you could also forward along either a confirmation email of your picks, or a copy of a printed listing. As of the moment, I’m not aware of any system failures. Usually, unrecorded picks occur because the picker failed to complete his or her entry by clicking the final submit button. If you think that may have happened, I may be able to recover your last iteration of picks through the system logs. (In fact, I have already included 3 sets of valid picks that were not officially finalized – for registrants that otherwise had no final submission.)

The standings are now posted, and will be updated after each set of games is complete. If you think you entered and don’t see your entry listed on the main standings page, let me know ASAP.

To give you a chance at a "Mulligan", or to give late entrants a chance to try this out, I've enabled the program to allow new sets of picks to be stored - but only for entrants who do not already have an official set of picks included in the standings. If you failed to get your picks in on time, or if you set up a late registration, you can still store a new set of picks. These late entries will not be listed in the official contest standings, but you can still track their progress using the "My Score" link at the left. This at least allows you to let the system do the scorekeeping for you.

Wednesday, Mar. 17
If you are new to the Market Madness format, don’t despair when you read the scoring rules. Even if you don’t “get it”, fill out a set of picks and try it for a year. Once you’ve lived through a tournament, you’ll catch on, and be much better prepared next year. If you want a few simple tips, try these:

For your shorts, look for first round upsets, and short the loser. For example, if you think that Hartford(16) will beat Baylor(1), then short the Bears. You might also try shorting one or two of the top seed baskets (1-3). For example, shorting the #1 seeds gives you plenty of opportunities to profit from an early upset - as long as the tournament doesn't go too “chalky”!
For longs, pick the 4 teams you expect to survive to the Final Four. In many instances, it's good to take those teams not only as single teams, but also in their basket forms - unless you think the other teams in those baskets are really overrated.
Pick one or two double-digit seeds as longs. These will pay off well if they make it to the Sweet 16.

Actually, my best advice is to use the scoring simulator. Pick each of the games as you would for a typical bracket, and then let the simulator calculate the returns under your scenario. Use those returns as a basis for your picks - picking your longs from the top of the listing, and your shorts from the bottom. Or let the simulator do that for you (if you're running it while logged in to the contest site).

Every year, there is a lot of attrition between the contest registrations and the actual entries. It's not unusual for as many as 25%-30% of the registrants to not submit a set of picks. I'm sure that some of that is simply forgetfulness, but I suspect a larger issue is the confusion factor. One of the dominant feedbacks that I get from people who play for the first year is that they felt pretty befuddled when making selections, but once they see how the tournament and the scoring play out, they can't wait for next year. The simulator was designed to help you get over that initial hump.

Sunday, Mar. 14
Welcome to the 2021 version of the Market Madness Contest. The contest site is up and running, and ready to accept your registration. And while you obviously can't enter your 2021 selections until after the brackets are announced, the site tools are still loaded with last year's brackets for you to dabble with, if you wish. You can even enter a set of picks of last year's units, and then immediately see what the score would have been. Of course, all "preseason" picks will be erased once the 2021 brackets are announced and loaded.

The rules for 2021 are the same as last year, with one exception. The 2021 tournament provides for the possibility of replacing a team (for Covid reasons) prior to the start of the tournament. If a team is replaced, the following rules will apply:

The replacement team will simply represent the departed team for the individual unit as well as for the related seed basket. So, for example, if Louisville replaces #3 seeded Kansas, then the scoring for the Kansas unit and the #3 seed basket will reflect the performance of Louisville instead of Kansas. The related units will not be repriced to reflect the switch.
For purposes of the conference baskets, the conference for the departed team will be voided, and the conference for the replacement team will be ignored. So, in the same example, the ultimate performance of Louisville will have no impact on either the Big 12 basket or the ACC basket. The conference basket will not be repriced, however.

Prior to making your selections, you may wish to try out the scoring simulator. This tool allows you to simulate the contest scoring for any possible set of outcomes. If you can fill out a standard tournament bracket, then the simulator will figure out what each unit score would be (ranked from best to worst), which you may wish to use as a guide in completing your entry. (Prior to the announcement of this year's brackets, the simulator will be configured for the 2019 pairings. This still may be helpful to you as a scoring example.)

The Standings page still shows last year’s final results. I’ll leave that there until this year’s tournament starts. You may find it helpful to drill down into some of last year’s successful entries to see what worked.

If you notice any apparent glitches in links, format, or content, please report them. You may use the GuruMail link (in the left menu panel) for this.

Thanks for your support!