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0 Subject: RIBC 2010: Rationales (Rounds 1-12)

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 15, 2010, 20:49

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like
for Guru
2.03 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos
This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.

4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:36
for Dave R
9.13 John Lackey SP Bos

Ugh, a hated Boston player. But Lackey was the highest rated pitcher I had left on my list. There are concerns as he's had injury issues the past two years, but I have to think the Sox feel relative confident he's good to go.

He should be a good source of wins playing in Beantown, his ratios are OK, not great and I'll take whatever K's come my way. If he can keep up with the 7.1/9 he recorded last year, I'll be satisfied with this pick
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:37
9.14 Ryan Dempster, SP, ChC
The typical appointed round for my first starting pitcher.

I donít know why, but Iíve always had good pitching success waiting until this late to start drafting SPs. For example, last year I ended up 5th in total pitching points in spite of drafting hitters in 7 of the first 8 rounds. Had I taken a second closer among those top 8 picks, IĎd have probably ranked second in pitching. Iíve had similar results in other years Ė enough so that this is one strategy that Iíve stuck with pretty consistently. If only I could pick hitters as wellÖ

There is nothing spectacular about Dempster. He benefits from pitching in the NL (no trades to the A.L., please!), he has decent ratios, and he fans almost 9 batters every 10 innings. Heís 33, so Iím not really expecting an age-related decline.

Curiously, I see that the earliest he was drafted in either of the AAA leagues was the early 12th round. Maybe I could have waited until the late 11th, but he looks to me like the best option right now, so Iím not going to take a chance Ė and there really isnít any other available pitcher that I think should be drafted now.

James Shields would have been my backup, but I prefer Dempster for the league benefit, if nothing else.
† † † ID: 72121722
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 12:53
9.15 Brad Lidge, RP, PHI
Lidge followed a strong 2008 season where he didn't blow any saves with a terrible 2009 season where he blew 11 saves. I attribute most of his problems to a change in mechanics because of injuries. While I don't expect another 2008, I expect him to be stronger than 2009 and remain the Phillies closer get 30-40 saves.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:41
for holt
9.16 Huston Street RP COL
By the time this pick came around, reports were out that Street's arm is fine, no structural damage. That's enough for me, as there is basically nothing left on the closer scrap pile but Schrodinger cats, so to speak. Brad Lidge just went off the board the pick before this one, if that tells you anything. Having only Marmol at this point, I was all over this. He'll prob start the season on the Dl, but shouldn't be there too long.

10.01 James Shields SP TAM
Hamels and Peavy might be great for me, but it's no sure thing, so I figured I better keep filling out my pitching staff while there are still good pitchers to be had. I also strongly considered Oswalt and Weaver here. Thought Shields might have a little better upside. Projections such as chone, zips, and rotoworld all look pretty good. Hopefully he was just on the unlucky side last season and his numbers will be closer to 2007 and 2008 than 2009's.

Wouldn't have minded having Jurrjens but I was thinking he might come back around again. I also still need 1B, 3B, CI, C, 2B, and MI, but the options were getting so weak, I figured we were in the tier levels on those positions where I may as well just wait.

† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:43
for TD
10.02 Alexei Ramirez SS CWS
I usually start looking at positional needs at this point in the draft. Before this pick, I was just choosing the best player available and trying to get mix of pitchers and hitters. Since I didn't have a MI on my roster, I was looking primarily at this position.

Ramirez did not produce as well during his 2nd season in 2009 as he did during his rookie year of 2008. The one positive in 2009 was OBP that increased because of more walks. Ramirez showed improvement toward the end of 2009, and I expect more improvement in 2010.

† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 16:44
10.03 J.D. Drew, OF, Bos
Iíve had Drew on my radar since round 6. Iím not sure why he slides this late in drafts, but it may have to with his off-season shoulder surgery.

Hard to believe Drew is already 34. Heís got an unusual statistical profile. His OBP of .390 and SLG in the low .500s are quite strong for this format. He also scores about 80 runs a year, but has only knocked in about 65 for each of his years in Boston. I guess he takes too many walks with RISP. Regardless, he seems to be healthy, and Iím looking for a repeat of recent years Ė maybe with better health. I suppose thatís his biggest statistical weakness Ė the inability to stay healthy for a full season.
† † † ID: 462212018
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 17:56
for Dave R
10.04 Placido Polanco, 2B, Phi
Oh Boy, not at all happy with this pick, but I needed a 2nd baseman. As a bonus, two weeks into the season he should be 3rd base eligible. I would have taken Alexis Ramirez, but he was gone.

Polanco is getting up there in years, but hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. He now goes to a great hitters park, where presumably he'll bat 2nd between Rollins and Utley. A career .303 hitter, I'm thinking he gets to cross the plate 100 times. Not much pop left in the bat, but a decent OBP.

† † † ID: 462212018
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 17:58
10.05, Nyjer Morgan, OF, Was

He is a one trick pony for sure. light hitting leadoff hitter in the mold of pierre. I really had to make a decision whether I wanted to grab my SB's now, cause I didnt really have a big speed guy at all, or just hope to piecemeal it together throughout the year. I watched Bourn go off the board and even Borbon so knew he prob wouldnt last to me again and didnt want to risk it so went ahead and got my steals at least I know what im getting.
† † † ID: 47112621
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 18:26
10.06 Chipper Jones 3B Atl

I really almost took Chipper two rounds ago. There are two ways to look at Chipper's 2009 declining numbers and his lack of attention by my league-mates: The beginning of the end.....or....... the end. I make no argument that Chipper is going to resurrect his former greatness and you will see the words 'bounce back' nowhere further in this rationale, but I do expect a leveling off and better than the drop off of hot corner talent still available, as evidenced that it has been almost three full rounds since a 3B was drafted in our league. A repeat of last years numbers would mean Chipper should still have an overall positive effect on the ratios, and still batting in the middle of his team's lineup should generate 70s+ in R and RBI. Now to just stay healthy.
† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:11
for JL
10.07 Nate McClouth, OF, ATL
Outfield is really all that Iím lacking at this point. I was looking at McLouth, Jay Bruce, Carlos Quentin, and Brad Hawpe. Quentin was taken just before me and Iím not convinced that Bruce will ever be able to improve his plate discipline enough to become a complete player. Hawpe has consistently posted solid numbers, but McLouth steals 20 bases a year and showed that he is capable of putting up huge numbers two years ago. Itís a tough call, but the steals pushed McLouth over the top.
† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:12
for Species
10.08Juan Pierre, OF, CWS
This was a bad turn for Team Species, as a boatload of targets went since my last pick, including Dempster, Shields, A. Ramirez, Morgan and Chipper Jones. With Bourn gone and Morgan just statched up, this was perhaps my last chance to get a huge basestealer. I've "saved up" my OBP and SLG (in particular) for this moment, so I went ahead and took Pierre. He's in for quite a ride atop Ozzie Guillen's lineup, and I expect him to run wild for a minimum of 40 SB's. He proved to me last year when Manny was suspended that the dude can still hit and get steals in bunches. Hopefully he rewards me.

I had briefly considered one of the starters on the board like Weaver, Danks and Floyd but felt I couldn't pass on the steals.

† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:14
for filthy
10.09 Martin Prado, 2B, ATL
I don't really know too much about Prado, but from what I saw, it seemed that he hit his way into a starting job in Atlanta. 2nd base in Atlanta has turned into a job stealing parade over the years come to think of it.

Last year's competition is out of the way, so I think Prado has a good shot of not having his job stolen until 2011. In the meantime, I think he will thrive with the expanded role this season. He seems like a type that isn't gonna let his chance pass him by, so I think he will reward the Braves faith in him with a great 2010.

The utility types that lack shortstop tend to be great in fantasy, with Prado being a great example of a 2B that hits like a 3B. Hopefully. The flexibility should be nice in April at least.

† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:15
for Goldcoach
10.10 Carlos Quentin, OF, ATL
Why is he still on the board at pick 154? Projections have him at 82 Runs, 90 RBIs, .364/.500 OBP/SLG with two, count'em 2 steals thrown in. I can't pass that up so I ignore the infield positions and go for stats (I do have to play OF too).
† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:17
or MBT
10.11 Jason Heywood OF, ATL
What's not to like about Heywood? I needed to fill in the rest of my OF and quite frankly, Heywood's upside is at least as good as any of the established guys still available. I'm not usually a Rookie kind of guy, but this one's too good to pass up.
† † † SuperDude
† † † ID: 4211201420
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:18
10.12-Jered Weaver, SP, ANA

I had planned on taking another infielder with this pick, but I decided to change direction and use my next two picks to firm up my pitching. The remaining infielders were not great, and I did not think that there would be a great drop in quality whether I used picks 12 and 13 instead of 10 and 11 for my infield.

158Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:33
10.13 Jose Lopez, 2B, SEA

As I was waiting to make this pick some closer injury news went public. It seemed like fate that my team in desperate need of RP #2 would catch a break. In the end, I ignored that temptation. Lopez seems like a good value this late. As a MI, his OBP and steals are detriments, but looking over the other available choices, there were not many players that I liked. It was going to be now for my 3rd MI, or 5-6 rounds later. At that point, it becomes a crapshoot. At least with Lopez, I feel like I know what I am getting. The addition of Figgins to Seattle should keep Lopezís RBI opportunities on the high end.
159Slackjawed Yokel
† † † ID: 47227122
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 21:47
10.14 John Danks, SP, CHW

I still only had one starting pitcher. There are still some fairly big names out there, but they all seem to be on the decline. I wanted a guy with already solid numbers who looks to be improving and Danks fit the bill. He hasn't put up huge strikeout numbers, but has had an ERA in the mid 3's each of the past two seasons.
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Sun, Mar 21, 2010, 22:37
10.15 Gavin Floyd SP CWS

So I have to leave my computer four picks before my turn, and plan on making my pick using my phone. I had everything all figured out. I would take either Weaver or Danks with this pick, and Floyd with pick 11.02. It was possible, but I considered unlikely that Weaver/Danks would both get picked. Oh well. Thanks guys. Since I was away, I just selected Floyd with this pick, and I'll have to re-evaluate 11.02.

Floyd is the #4 starter for the WhiteSox, but has the potential to be a top-30 pitcher. He had a solid second half in 2009, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts, partially because of a sharp drop in BB (1.9BB/9IP). I'm counting on 200 IP, 3.90 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Maybe it'll work out after all.
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:12
10.16 Max Scherzer SP DET
scherzer is the third pitcher for det this year , i had a look at preaseason rankings and he was in a good position. I'm not too high this year for big names as sp, last year i had lee and shields and they were terrible. I prefer to look for good candidates that maybe they're going to have a good season. The k's were good a 176 last year so i decided to pick him up

11.01 Ryan Ludwick OF STL
not so many runs like 2008 for ludwick, but at least he's batting fifth after pujols and holliday. I'm hoping for a better season than 2009 for this year. Also he looks enough consistent for me
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:13
11.02 Jair Jurrjens SP ATL

It took awhile for me to finally decide on going the SP route for this pick. I originally intended to take two SPs on this turn, but like I said in my previous rationale, I intended on taking Floyd here. Is Jurrjens good enough, or should I take another hitter? But as I look at my draft sheet, I see a lot of SPs nearing the top of the list that have more negatives than positives. Jerrjens seems to have more positives, so I decided to take him.

I've never seen Jurrjens, nor can I pronounce his name. During his time in Atlanta, he has 27 wins, a 3.10 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 65 starts. He won't be an superstar, but he'll be a solid #3 SP for me. The only other SPs I considered were Burnett, Oswalt, and -undrafted-.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:29
for Slackjawed Yokel
11.03 Adrian Beltre 3B BOS
I've already got A-rod at third, but looking at the available corner infielders, Beltre stood out to me. He'll be coming out of exile a bit from the hitter-unfriendly Safeco Field to Boston where the Green Monster should be a welcome sight. Plus, the Red Sox lineup should offer him abundant opportunities to drive in runs.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:29
for Uptown Bombers
11.04 Alex Rios OF CWS
Rios is coming off a dreadful year. I donít think he will repeat that. If I am right, this will be a great pick. At the very least, Rios continued to run last year. Iím expecting him to contribute in SB and have a bounce back year across the line. Maybe he wonít be the player that showed such great promise 3 years ago, but he is capable of producing bigger numbers than last year. He is having a great spring if you consider that important. I also considered Dexter Fowler as an alternative OF and continued to fight the urge to grab Chris Perez.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:30
for loki
11.05 A.J. Burnett SP NYY
This pick is a continuation of my rationale for 10.12. Burnett should help with wins with the NYY offense in back of him, and is one of the few remaining SPs with a high strikeout rate. I considered Chris Perez with Kerry Wood being injured, but I already had two closers and felt that I could find saves either later in the draft or during the season on the waiver wire.
† † † ID: 591332022
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:38
for mbt:
11.06 Chris Perez, RP, CLE

I was sweating this pick getting back to me. I had read about his temporary promotion to the closer role earlier in the day and was worried somebody else would grab him. He's got nasty stuff and has a legitimate shot at keeping the closer role if he can prove himself over the next 6-8 weeks.
† † † ID: 2421029
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 11:45
11.07 Jay Bruce, OF, Cin

Still ignoring the infield and picking up some more power in the OF with this selection. Bruce showed some really good potential last year, and hopefully will improve a bit more with another season and another spring training b3ehind him. Loking to get 75+ Runs, 80+ RBIs, 5+ SBs, .333 OBP, and .525 SLG. Not bad for overall pick 167.
† † † ID: 591332022
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:04
11.08 Michael Cuddyer, OF, MIN

Carlos Quentin, Jose Lopez, Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce. All good picks that I might've had a chance at if I had played things a bit differently. Some of my rostered players might have still been around, even in the 13th. Really been eyeing Quentin and Lopez for awhile.

Cuddyer really snuck up on me. Somewhere in between my picks, I noticed how good his year was last year. Couldn't really see how he's slipped, especially with the CI eligibility. Perfect for my team right now.

The 16 picks after this were mostly heartbreakers, but I kept finding reasons not to draft most of them in the past rounds. Theriot caught me off guard, really nice choice. I couldn't find any reason not to draft Cuddyer though. Heart of the Twins lineup is really scary, and Cuddyer should remain in the middle of the action.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 07724916
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:14
11.09 Roy Oswalt, SP, HOU

No longer a true ace, with declining K/9 and a serious back injury last year, still Oswalt is expected to put up strong ratios in the 3.70 ERA and 1.25-1.30 WHIP range. 12 wins and those ratios will fit nicely into my rotation here.

I would have taken many of the SP's that went before me, including Danks, Floyd and AJ Burnett. Oswalt's a decent consolation prize.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 01584348
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:47
for JL
11.10 Brad Hawpe OF COL
Well I nearly took him a round ago, so it was a no-brainer here since I only have one outfielder. Iím falling behind in slugging and his .500 Slg% doesnít hurt. Honestly Iím not sure why Hawpe falls so late every year in fantasy drafts. Heís pretty consistently productive and heís only 30.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 01584348
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 12:48
11.11 Scott Kazmir SP LAA

Ok Species - you got one of mine. I was going to be away for half of Sunday so 3 away I needed to finalize a 3 player queue. Focusing on OF (I still have none) and SP, spent my morning setting up Hawpe & Oswalt, then as a safety needed a third name that I spent a little less time working out (Kazmir, Webb, Fowler, Kubel, Beltran, Buckholtz were among the top of my queue). Kazmir is as good as any of the other solid crapshoots at this point. If he pitches all season could be among the AL top-10 leaders in Ks and on a competitive team in a division with no offensive juggernauts can hopefully keep his ERA around or under 4.00 and win double digits. It is a small sample size, but his numbers were night and day, much improved after going from Tampa to Anaheim getting out of the AL East. Something I'll hang my hat on with this pick.
† † † ID: 3924312
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:01
11.12 Ryan Theriot, SS, Chc

He solidifies my MI postion as well as anyone at this point. Gives you good OBP with 20 SBs and hits at top of the order so 80+ runs. He is having a great spring and new hitting coach Rudy Jarimillo from rangers is there now. I have seen Rudy take average hitting infielders like Derosa and give them career years at the same age as Theriot. Not saying it will happen here but I like the upside.

Was looking at Oswalt for another SP here or possibly that idiot Swisher but Oswalt got taken few picks before and I can wait for OF bat, MI is dried up.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:55
for Dave R
11.13 Adam LaRoche, 1B Ari
Besides a first baseman and third basemen, we need an additional player to occupy a CI slot. In looking over the hitters, Laroche was one of the highest hitters left on my list, and the rest of the list were primarily outfielders. Why not solve a positional need.

Adam split the season between Pittsburgh and Atlanta ( with a one week stop in Boston ), totaling 25 HR's and 83 RBI's. Those totals were evenly split between the two teams. But in Atlanta it took 112 less AB's and his batting average was .325, supporting his notoriously strong 2nd half's.

He's now employed by Arizona, most likely batting 5th in the order in a great offensive ballpark and is in a contract year. All thing point to a season of 25-30 HR's, 90-100 RBI's and ratios that won't hurt you.

† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 13:56
11.14 Kelly Johnson, 2B, Ari
Iíve had my eye on Kelly for awhile. I donít know if this is too early to take him, though. He doesnít seem to be very highly ranked in most of the projections, and heís coming off a dreadful year.

But heís now on Arizona, heís only 28, and heís slated to be the everyday second baseman. Hopefully, last yearís woes, some which were injury related, can be a thing of the past. With both of the teams on the turn still open at 2B, and most of the alternatives looking pretty weak, I decided not to play chicken. My experience in this league is that, if you want someone, you wonít get him if you wait for a bargain price. projects him at 88/72/12/.348/.483. This will be a home run pick if anything like that comes to pass. They also note that heís moving from a home park that is tough on LH power, and going to a ballpark that is favorable to LH power. Heís got an OBP of .400 thus far in spring training, and although he hasnít shown much power yet this spring, Iím still going to jump in here and claim my last starting middle infielder.
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 036331011
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 14:11
11.15 Jorge Cantu, 3B, FLA
I didn't have a 3B on my roster, and I thought Cantu was significantly better than the next available. I was very concerned that Guru would choose Cantu with pick 11.15 because Guru did not have a 3B on his roster either. I expect Cantu to put up some good RBI and SLG numbers. It also helps that he is 1B eligible.

† † † Leader
† † † ID: 036331011
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:27
for holt
11.16 Nick Swisher, 1B, NYY
A lot of players that I had been eyeing were taken since my last pick (30 picks ago). Alexei, JD Drew, Chipper, Prado, Quentin, Heyward, Weaver, Cuddyer, Laroche, etc. etc. Very few of my long range plans for this draft are coming together. I still didn't have any 1B or 3B so it was time to start addressing that. Wasn't impressed with 3B's right at this point, 1B's I was looking at were Swisher, Konerko, Ortiz, and Garrett Jones. Now I'm starting to wonder why I chose Swisher over Jones. Yankee better than Pirate maybe? Ah well. I feel pretty good about Swisher. New Yankee Stadium is treating him well (.371 .498 last season). If I can get similar production from him this year, that's not bad from the 176th overall pick.
12.01 Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
My only MI at this point was Jose Reyes. I didn't like any of the MI available really. I'm not overjoyed with Furcal, but at some point you have to fill out the lineup. MI is usually something I fix during the season. I'm not worried about it.

I'm expecting better numbers from Furcal this year. Last year he played hurt, in constant fear of hurting his back again. This year he says he is 100%. I think the power numbers and the steals should be much better this year. He has basically been hurt the last three seasons (ankle, then his back). I think he can still put up 2006'ish numbers (.369 .445 37 SB). Well, not sure about the 37 sb, but 20-25 seems doable. And what was up with that 1.012 OPS in his abbreviated 2008 season? Anyway, at 12.01 any MI pick is going to be iffy. Furcal really was the only MI still available that I could stomach at this pick.

† † † Leader
† † † ID: 036331011
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:27
12.02 James Loney, 1B, LAD
I needed a CI, 2B, MI, and C to fill out my positions. I targeted SS Furcal for this pick, but Holt picked him at 12.01. Loney doesn't have string power numbers for a CI, but is average in Rs, RBIs, and OBP and is not in much danger of losing his starting job.

† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 15:33
12.03 Brandon Webb, SP, Ari
A high risk, high reward pick. Heís coming back from a busted season and shoulder surgery, hasnít pitched in a game yet this spring Ė and isnít expected take the mound until late April (at the earliest). So far, reports are good on his recovery, but there is no doubt that this is a risky pick, with the potential to produce anything from an 0-fer-2010 to a complete return to form. Most likely result is somewhere in between.

Iíll take that risk. Worth a 12th round pick? I dunno.

Looks like Iím going to become an Arizona fan this year, as heís the third D-back on my squad.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 01584348
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:01
For Dave R
12.04 Clay Buchholz SP BOS

I needed to start thinking about adding another pitcher to my staff. There were allot of pitchers I could have chosen, I'm not sure what drew me to Buchholz. Maybe adding another RedSox starter, maybe it was his strong 2nd half.

Forced to wait his time while Boston tried Penny and Smoltz, when Clay finally got the chance, he allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of 16 starts. So maybe I was banking on continued improvement. Time will tell, he's had an awful spring.

† † † Dude
† † † ID: 01584348
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:02
for tilt
12.05 Rich Harden SP TEX

† † † Dude
† † † ID: 01584348
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 17:05
12.06 Dexter Fowler OF Col

Fourty-four outfielders drafted through 182 picks, time to join in with my first. This was not by design, looking back through my picks, it seems like there was always a more pressing need, or a higher player on my board. Out of available outfielders, also looked at Kubel, Beltran, and a few deeper into the OF pool. Beltran is tempting, but I'm just afraid of the 'Early May' news and may have taken him if I had some other OF already, just can't pull the trigger for my first one. Fowler is a speedy player who gets on base, he had 27 SB last season (and was caught 10 times), and is expected to be batting #2 for the Rockies. Not much expected on the SLG and RBI categories, but that should be balanced out by the lumbering offensive players at 1B/3B I've drafted early.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 07724916
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 19:39
12.07 Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Tex

I really wanted Dexter Fowler here, but he was taken one pick ahead of me. Davis is purely an upside pick. He has absolutely destroyed minor league pitching and, at times, has done the same to major league pitching. Heís having a nice spring training for the Rangers and has the potential to put up 100 RBI, .330 OBP, .550 SLG. Of course thereís also a pretty good chance that heíll post a .294 OBP, .440 SLG with 375 strikeouts. Weíll see.
† † † Dude
† † † ID: 07724916
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 19:46
12.08 Miguel Montero, C, AZ

Funny, as I awaiting JL's pick I narrowed my choices down to Marco Scutaro and Montero. I had no designs in particular to take a C here. I definitely had Scutaro as the highest ranked SS left, and with some dropoff to the stiffs below. But in the end, I felt Montero was atop the heap of the C pool, and this was getting about time to take him. He had gone earlier in most RIBC drafts, and I also felt that this might start a mini-C run, as only 4 teams had catchers at this point. It would be nice to be at the START of a run for once, instead of having to react to others.

I was right. Five of the six teams without a Catcher between this pick and my next all took a catcher in this turn of picks. I like getting a "difference maker" at a position of need instead of another filler at a position I already have.

Besides Scutaro - who went with the NEXT pick by filthy - I really liked the value that Jason Kubel had on the board. Yokel got a steal in him at 12.14
186Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:22
for filthy
12.09 Marco Scutaro, SS, BOS
Some major upside going off the board. I went with a safer pick here. Scutaro even has some upside of his own. Fenway and RedSox lineup is ideal. Batting 9th in that order is not a horrible thing.

Really needed a shortstop. Wish I could have had some of the outfielders that went here. If not for just picking Cuddyer, I would have also been on the Kubel train. 2 Davis' that I wish I could've had. Harden and Webb could be huge. I was shying away from Furcal for some reason.

I hate to root for a Red Sock, but I like how Scutaro plays, very good signing for them.

187Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:23
for Goldcoach
12.10 Mike Napoli, C, LAA
This was a queue pick. I use my queue to set up for about a full round, and as my pick draws closer I try to tweak it depending on who's gone and who's left. No matter what I do though it seems that the player third from the top is always the most appealing. In this case I was definitely looking for a catcher. I like Napoli's power! What I'm hoping is that Scioscia will let him play more this year. If that is the case he'll give me better stats than the others I had queued up along with him. So I reached for him by moving him up in my queue.
188Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:24
for MBT
12.11 Jhonny Peralta, SS, CLE
Everybody needs a SS right? I'm hoping for 2008 Peralta and not the 2009 version. The position flexibility is a nice added bonus. He's consistently hit over 80 RBIs and I need some more counting stats at this point in the draft.
189Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:25
for Loki

12.12-Rajai Davis, OF, OAK

Another change in direction. I had planned on taking either a CI or MI with this pick, but decided that I really did not like the way my team was turning out. So I thought that I would shake things up and pick Davis who was the last player left with the potential for 40-50 steals.
190Uptown Bombers
† † † Donor
† † † ID: 035616416
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 21:26
12.13 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL

An aging pitcher, coming off TJ surgery in 2008, and low K totals usually translate to strikes one, two and three. Yet, here I go drafting Hudson anyway. All reports seem to indicate that he is healthy this spring. His outings so far have been pretty good. If Hudson is healthy, he presents a solid chance at a high win total for a good Braves club, while also helping to bring my pitching ratios down. In my mind, this pick allows me to justify taking a high K, high ratio pitcher later in the draft. I just hope my choices there are still around in round 14, since Iím pretty sure that Iím picking a hitter next round.
191Slackjawed Yokel
† † † ID: 47227122
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 22:58
12.14 Jason Kubel, OF, Min

I only had 2 OF, and had actually considered Kubel three and a half rounds ago when I drafted Pence. Unlike Pence, Kubel is fairly one-dimensional. But that one dimension is hittingÖ and that's pretty much all the categories but steals. I'm happy to get an OF that had a .907 OPS last year at this point in the draft.
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Mon, Mar 22, 2010, 23:37
12.15 Geovany Soto C CHC

It's so frustrating when the manager right before you takes the only guy on your queue. Slackjaw just did it with Kubel. I had been considering Nolan Reimold as my back-up plan, but I didn't really do any research to support that decision. When I was suddenly faced drafting him, his 0-21 batting in Spring Training thus far kept me away for now.

I considered a number of other OF/CI/DH options, but the ones I liked provided a category that I'm not really lacking in (SBs), and the rest will all be available again in 3 more picks. I generally wait until the end to grab a catcher, but decided to bite on Soto. He was the 2008 NL ROY, but did not improve in 2009 while suffered some injuries. He reportedly lost 40 pounds this off-season and wants to show that last year was an anomaly. He hasn't shown the power yet in Spring Training, but is batting .400, so that's a positive sign.
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Mar 23, 2010, 22:52
for Tequila
12.16 Garret Jones OF PIT

21 home runs for 350 at bats last year for jones. For this year he's batting third after mc cutchen and [undrafted]. I hope he's not just an one year only superstar. Also i had 10 sb, good averages and eligibility at 1b,of
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Tue, Mar 23, 2010, 22:53
Rationales for rounds 13-25
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