Moqtada al-Sadr represents a formidable problem for the military in Iraq, the U.S. intelligence community has acknowledged, according to Geostrategy-Direct, the global intelligence news service.

Al-Sadr might be the bane among Shiite clerics. But over the last year he has managed to completely intimidate even the most prominent of clerics, such as Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

Al-Sadr has also managed to win supporters and cooperation within the Sunni community. His poster has been pasted in mosques even in hardcore Fallujah.

U.S. intelligence analysts said al-Sadr has managed to inspire just about everybody who opposes the U.S. in Iraq.

More importantly, al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army have exploited a new class of disenfranchised Shiites who are unemployed and have nothing to lose. He has won thousands of Shiites – and in some cases Sunnis – with tens of millions of dollars of Iranian money.

The intelligence analysts say the U.S. military underestimated several factors:


1. The extent to which Saddam Hussein kept Iraq together by pure intimidation.
2. The absence of a community infrastructure in Iraq.

3. The vulnerability of a socially- and politically-decimated Iraq to neighboring Iran.

Al-Sadr brings the United States to a crossroad. Over the next few weeks, the U.S. will either push hard or bring Sunni and Shiite insurgents to the wall and reign by fear until an authoritarian Iraq can rule itself.

Or, the Iraqi Governing Council and the security forces will disintegrate, with soldiers and police doing little more than showing up to work and collecting salaries – but failing to impose order.

The analysts warn that the United States cannot rely on either the Sunni or Shiite clergy. Indeed, they have never been in a position of influence on a national level.

In many towns and cities, Shiite clerics took over municipal services but were quickly confronted by rivals who stressed their opposition to the United States.

Their analysts' assessment: a Shiite insurgency could go nationwide over the next few months.