RotoGuru Politics Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: Campaign 2012 II

Posted by: Wilmer McLean
- [839213] Wed, May 18, 2011, 05:39





When the unemployment rate is falling in the election year, the incumbent President gets re-elected. When it's rising, the incumbent loses.


(maybe) The Chart That Matters for Obama's Re-Election
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
41Mith
      ID: 23217270
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 12:54
Tree you should stop commenting on matters regarding Christianity. Your track record is on par with the bumbling Bs in the birther thread.
42Boldwin
      ID: 1353071
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 13:02
In Christendom non-denominational means 'we want your money whoever you are and we don't have an obvious positions you won't like'.

Did I mention I am never wrong and liberals are all by default bumbling? Because I said so.
43Khahan
      ID: 373143013
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 13:03
non-denominational means not related to any particular religion. a non-denominational Christian service is an oxymoron.

And within a specific religion, it means its not referring to a particular denomination of that religion.

You can say it means something else to you all you want Tree, but there is nothing wrong with what Perry said.

Then there is also the fact that he may be holding a Christian-type prayer meeting but it is open to any/all regardless of religion. Believe it or not, this it far from unheard of. I was raised as a Lutheran but often went to a friends meetings at his local JCC. And was welcomed and accepted and sat in on many Jewish prayers and thought nothing of it. And I wasn't the only non-Jew there. Even attended a few hannukah dinners a Rosh hashanah service.

I think what Perry is promoting is a good thing, even as a current agnostic/borderline aetheist.
44bibA
      ID: 48627713
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 13:42
The big thing on Sundays these days seem to be the large buildings that advertise themselves as "non-denominational", but are clearly Christian. Wouldn't really call them churches, as they don't have your traditional ministers who work at it as a full time profession. Very popular in SoCal at least.
45Pancho Villa
      ID: 597172916
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 14:07
Poll: Romney even with Obama

46Tree
      ID: 3553714
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 15:03
Fair enough. Within that context, i stand corrected.
47bibA
      ID: 48627713
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 15:47
It does appear that Ed Rollins is no fan of Sarah Palin, as she is not serious.
48bibA
      ID: 48627713
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 15:50
It would seem that Margaret Thatcher thinks even less of her.
49Boldwin
      ID: 1353071
      Tue, Jun 07, 2011, 19:08
Well I'll admit to having second thots.

Rollins is really going after Palin hammer and tong. I don't think Reagan would have approved and I don't think the Tea Party faithful will approve. They think the Tea Party is America's last chance and don't want any genuine fellow travellers savaged as there is a more important enemy to their future.

I still say political experts consider Rollins a heavyweight. If he doesn't get the Tea Party he should sit this one out tho.
50Khahan
      ID: 373143013
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 10:54
New candidate emerges as frontrunner for Republicans.


Pretty much sums up the state of the party.
51Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 11:34
Heh.

Tim Paw's economic plan widely panned.
52Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 15:33
#45: Or not . Hard to say at this point.

I think Romney is going to get eaten up by the Far Right in the primaries.
53boikin
      ID: 532592112
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 16:48
This is probably not the thread for this but how are they even doing polls if they rely on telephone calls, do they have cell phone numbers?
54Building 7
      Leader
      ID: 171572711
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 18:46
We do all kinds of polls where I work. We're just getting into cell phones It's still mostly landline for us. I can't remember what the problem is. There's no cellphone phonebook. Or there's little data on demographics of cell phone owners. Maybe we're not allowed to call them. I can ask the P.I. Anyways, A landline poll would exclude people who don't own a landline, like mostly young people. Who have a cell phone and not a landline.
55Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 20:03
FiveThirtyEight

56Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Wed, Jun 08, 2011, 20:37
This would have saved us a lot of grief during the Bush Administration...
57Frick
      ID: 5310541617
      Thu, Jun 09, 2011, 08:24
To be fair, couldn't the same be said for any administration in the last 30+ years?
58Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Thu, Jun 09, 2011, 21:36
Senior Gingrich aides quit en masse.
59Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Fri, Jun 10, 2011, 23:06
There is some rumbling about Rick Perry entering the race, despite his fairly steady denials. Probably a result of the GOP casting about for good candidates--they haven't had a real primary battle since the 1980 election.

But Perry's got plenty of baggage himself-- here are ten things Perry wouldn't want people to know about, should he run.
60Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Sat, Jun 11, 2011, 13:50
Add the 2nd Amendment to the growing list of things Herman Cain doesn't understand:

61Boldwin
      ID: 295311022
      Sat, Jun 11, 2011, 16:53
What's your problem with that, MITH?
62Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Sat, Jun 11, 2011, 16:58
That he believes in the sanctity of the Second Amendment, except that local and state authorities can institute their own restrictions?

Or maybe his belief that the Second Amendment is a states rights issue?
63Mith
      ID: 23217270
      Sat, Jun 11, 2011, 17:22
B
Cant say I have a problem with it, it's as I thought the 2nd Amendment should be read until, to my dismay, it was effectively incorporated by DC v Heller.

You can decide for yourself whether he takes a position notably to the left of me, both denying that SCOTUS has incorporated the 2nd Amendment and opposing it's future incorporation, or if he just completely fails to grasp the issue, joining the Afghanistan War and the Israeli/Palestinian conflict on the list of important issues that Herman Cain does not understand.

My vote is the latter and that we'll see him walk it back in the next few days rather than draw the ire of conservative gun rights advocates.
64Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Mon, Jun 20, 2011, 00:53
Amateur hour at the Cain campaign goes for another round.



Some highlights:

On appointing Muslims to his administration:
I was asked, Mr. Cain would you be comfortable appointing a Muslim to your administration? And I paused and said, no. And then later I said, but it's not impossible.
So I'm not gonna play nicey-nice and say that I'm not gonna take extra precautions in order to be able to make sure that we can [inaudible].
Cain to his aide as they become visibly uncomfortable with his off-message rant:
Relax. You're looking at me like, I didn't know he was gonna talk about all that. I wanna clear the air, alright? See, traditional campaigns tell candidates to stay away from sensitive subjects. No. I'm not your typical candidate. [Indeed! -m] I go right into the belly of the beast if somebody has misrepresented something that I have said.

Clearing the air on gun rights:
I said I support the 2nd Amendment, strongly support the 2nd Amendment, and if any laws need to be passed relative to guns, they should be at the state level. The reaction was, are you saying the states ought to restrict gun ownership? No! I don't believe states should restrict access to guns, but what if a state wants to pass background checks? What if a state wants to pass carry and conceal? That's what I'm talking about. And some states have done that. So, relative to restricting access, no! I don't believe the federal government should restrict access, and I don't believe that states should restrict access because of the 2nd Amendment.
Like Sarah Palin on the Paul Revere's midnight ride, it's difficult to tell exactly what Cain means by this, what he's been coached on since the Blitzer interview and exactly what it is he doesn't understand about the issue. Does he know we already have a federal system in place which requires all licensed firearm sellers to conduct a background check? If so, then he's referring to states which seek to close the gun show/private seller loophole, in which "private" dealers can bypass the requirement because they are unlicensed. Anyone think the NRA members and other gun rights activists who got bent over the Blitzer interview will give him a pass for believing that imposing background checks on private dealers does not "restrict access"?

On his limited grasp of foreign policy:
There's more about our relationship with every country out there that I don't know, than I know. So my approach is, number one, I gonna depend upon the people who know a hell of a lot more about it than I do. But I will develop a foreign policy strategy with every nation that we have any kind of relationship with at all, good or bad, friend or foe. That's my approach. It's a business approach. You don't... enter enter a new market with a product until you properly assess the market, properly assess [inaudible]. So I've got a lot of work to do in that area.
Reporter follows up on Cain's stated precaution for Muslims appointees
Reporter: About the Muslim thing which you mentioned before-

Cain: What- where- wait wait wait. Didn't I just answer that?

Reporter: No no. You didn't. What exact special precautions would you use? And how do you know if that precaution would work or not?

Cain: I didn't say- OK. If you're trying to make me lose my cool, you are almost succeeding. [Screaming at the reporter] I never said that I would use any special precautions! [Herman Cain memory span < 13:00:00 -m]

Reporter: OK. So a Muslim applies to the administration, gets in like anybody else?

Cain: [Composure regained now -m] Yes. I never used those words. Those words was used by somebody on the internet. Now, wait a minute, let me say to the gentleman... It probably wasn't politically correct for me to raise my voice. But you know what is resonating with the American people? I'm gonna be myself. I'm not gonna be a punching bag, OK? But you can imagine that I've been asked that same question a thousand times. I never said that. OK? So my apology. I apologize.
This issue shouldn't so easily bring out the ugliest in a presidential candidate (assuming a screaming denial of exactly what he just said is his ugliest side). It's not the first time he's denied his own words on the question, in fact it seems that every time he's asked about it he denies ever saying something that is exactly what he'd previously said. That was really bad. The next reporter did him a huge favor by bringing the discussion back to his economic plan, which he is obviously very comfortable talking about.

Unfortunately another reporter asked him to respond to criticism of his refusal to articulate any type of foreign policy direction. He didn't get agitated again, but further exposed his naivete with the belief that briefings he'll receive in the period between an election victory and inauguration will sufficiently prepare him to address foreign affairs and that forming any discernable philosophy on the issue isn't necessary, despite calling foreign policy one of the main focal points of his campaign.

Yes, he's peaked. I will agree agree with Boldwin in that it's foolish to say that he peaked too soon. On the contrary, thank goodness he peaked so early.
65Razor
      ID: 33520166
      Mon, Jun 20, 2011, 06:01
Amateur hour is right. His lack of political experience is obvious. Apparently he thinks that loads of radical, nonspecific, poorly thought out are fine just as long as he finishes each statement with, "I'm a businessman and in business, we did it this way."
66Boldwin
      ID: 22532522
      Sun, Jun 26, 2011, 16:24
Zogby poll:
A new presidential poll by Zogby International has U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann ranked as the leader of the pack of Republican hopefuls, far ahead of the men seeking to oust Barack Obama from the White House.

The online survey of 998 likely Republican primary voters conducted June 17-21 has the Minnesota congresswoman collecting 24 percent of the vote, with businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a virtual tie for second at 15 percent each.

"On the Republican side, there's got to be concern in Romney's camp," Boston University political historian Thomas Whalen told the Boston Herald.

"If Michele Bachmann wins New Hampshire, it's all over for Romney," said Whalen. "Bachmann showing a surge right now is a major red flag."

He suggested Romney must be praying for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to jump into the contest.

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas came in fourth place at 13 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who announced his candidacy yesterday near the Statue of Liberty, received just 2 percent.
However, just to show how screwed up the GOP is, tho they love her only 7% think she'll get the nomination and 37% think Romney will so obviously a LOT of republicans don't think the GOP is responsive to them.


67Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Mon, Jun 27, 2011, 11:15
woo hoo!

oh wait--it is WND reporting on a Zogby poll. Isn't that a double negative?
68Pancho Villa
      ID: 597172916
      Mon, Jun 27, 2011, 12:58
just to show how screwed up the GOP is, tho they love her only 7% think she'll get the nomination and 37% think Romney will so obviously a LOT of republicans don't think the GOP is responsive to them.

I don't know if it's screwed up as much as pragmatic. Most Republicans know that in order to win the general election, their nominee will need to carry a good percentage of moderates and independents. Although I consider Bachmann to be a formidable force in the primaries and has a legitimate shot at winning the nomination, I think it's safe to say that she'll have a hard time securing the independent and moderate vote needed to win the big prize.
Her main problem is that she boxed herself into a corner early as a tea party candidate, which has limited appeal beyond strict adherents. Although, she is making attempts to soften her image, going from calling Obama anti-American in 2008 to saying she has nothing personal against him yesterday. While that's a long way from Huntsman's "I respect the President of the United States" statement, it was enough for
Fox News' Chris Wallace to apologize to her for asking her if she is a flake.
69Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 10:51
a tea party candidate, which has limited appeal beyond strict adherents.

Explain the 2010 election to me again?
70Tree
      ID: 41512710
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 11:04
Explain the 2010 election to me again?

you could ask Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell or John Raese or Carl Paladino or Anna Little or Carly Fiorina or Scott Sipprelle or the slew of other Tea Party Candidates that lost.

Yes, tea party candidates won 28 races. but excepting Marco Rubio, Tea Party candidates were drubbed in populous areas. they lost in the populous states, and they were trounced in the most populous metro areas. They were spanked in New England and they were spanked in the Mid-Atlantic states.

hopefully that explained the 2010 election to you. if not, again, you can ask the plethora of tea party candidates who simply didn't stand a chance.
71Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 11:18
Probably all RINO's that won then, huh?

Yeah right.
72Tree
      ID: 41512710
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 13:05
the facts speak for themselves. you choose to shield your eyes and cover your ears, hoping that by yelling louder you can some how change the facts of the matter.

post 70 is on point, and completely factual. feel free to prove it wrong.
73Seattle Zen
      ID: 10732616
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 13:47
Explain the 2010 election to me again?

Me: Fifty million people who voted in 2008 choose not to vote in 2010.

Brick: ...
74Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 15:17
Wow, a RINO landslide of 'go along/get along' Obama votin RINO's even without Obama's extra 50 mil!

Imagine what an Obama affirmation 2012 is gonna be!
75biliruben
      ID: 358252515
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 16:07
Don't get cocky kid.
76Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 17:36
Cocky? I'm throwin in the towel. If 2010 was a Tea Party defeat what hope is there?
77Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 17:54
No really...heh...after the last debate liberal talking heads were fooled into thinking the candidates were moderating in their conservatism. Wiser liberals know better:
left-of-center observers, suggesting the candidates had shown all sorts of surprising maturity and moderation...

When the political center of a party, or a country, is in the process of shifting, there's a lot of noise and conflict. When it settles in its new place, however, it gets very quiet. To a very great extent, that's what has happened in the GOP. It is not a sign of "sanity" or "moderation;" simply one of consensus....

But the bottom line is that the GOP did not suddenly transform itself overnight. The drive to the right in the GOP has been underway for more than four decades. If it seems to have stopped, that's probably becomes it has arrived at its destination. - Ed Kilgore, intelligent uberliberal
78Boldwin
      ID: 47542289
      Tue, Jun 28, 2011, 19:01
And when Orin Hatch is nothing but a memory in the Senate I am sure PV will still be telling me the Tea Party is a spent force relevant only in the republican primary.
79Boldwin
      ID: 25530309
      Thu, Jun 30, 2011, 22:04
Politico detects a tipping point has been reached. Dem Jewish Obama supporters and donors finally have had enuff and no longer trust him to deal with Isreal fairly.
David Ainsman really began to get worried about President Barack Obama’s standing with his fellow Jewish Democrats when a recent dinner with his wife and two other couples — all Obama voters in 2008 — nearly turned into a screaming match.

If several dozen interviews with POLITICO are any indication, a similar conversation is taking place in Jewish communities across the country. Obama’s speech last month seems to have crystallized the doubts many pro-Israel Democrats had about Obama in 2008 in a way that could, on the margins, cost the president votes and money in 2012 and will not be easy to repair.
I thot they'd never wake up. [Politico is somewhat left leaning btw]
80Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Fri, Jul 01, 2011, 00:17
Typical Politico article: Horse race analysis filled with weasel words. "Obama may be losing the faith of Jewish Democrats." Indeed.
81Boldwin
      ID: 465448
      Mon, Jul 04, 2011, 18:49
"The new Republican Party has undertaken the most direct assault on labor, not just in my lifetime … but literally since the 1920s," he said in the address at McCormick Place. "This is not your father's Republican Party. This is a different breed of cat."
A very expensive speech considering the unions have so screwed up McCormick Place that they required 'American Association of Medical Assistants' union workers pump his lungs in and out for him during the speech.
82Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Wed, Jul 13, 2011, 10:05
Ho hum. Another special election. Another Democratic victory.
83Boldwin
      ID: 426151116
      Wed, Jul 13, 2011, 11:49
Wow, 43% of LA voted for the Tea Party candidate. I wouldn't have even guessed that there were any Tea Partiers in LA.
84Perm Dude
      ID: 5510572522
      Wed, Jul 13, 2011, 12:01
Actually, he was the GOP candidate with strong Tea Party support (though, as I understand it, the South Bay Tea Party declined to actually endorse anyone, though I don't know why). It should probably be mentioned that the election was to replace a blue dog Democrat, so the district isn't as liberal as you might think going in.
85Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 14:05
Herman Cain cites Seperation in claiming Americans have the right to ban mosques in their communites.

What an imbicile - and abject embarrassment for anyone who prematurely threw their support behind this former flavor of the month to the detriment of their own credibility.

Call that shark officially jumped.
86Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 14:58
Texas’ Rick Perry starting to feel ‘called’ to run for president

LGF: God sure is telling a lot of Republicans to run for President.
87sarge33rd
      ID: 1964421
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 16:46
One more Rep tries to claim "God told me to run...", and I think I'll puke. Bunch of self-serving hypocrits. God couldnt possibly care less who does/doesnt run.
88Razor
      ID: 31610612
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 20:57
Re: 85 - I can't believe this clown is running for President. The fact he hasn't been laughed off the national stage yet is what worries me more than anything. I really thought Bush was the worst the GOP could offer but he is miles ahead of the Cains, Palins, Trumps and Bacchmans of the world. It's appaling to me that a major party candidate is out there advocating and defending un-Constitutional discrimination. How long before one of these fools actually gets elected? The fact that they are able to last more than a short while in the spotlight is troubling.
90Mith
      ID: 5631099
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 21:34
It's appaling to me that a major party candidate is out there advocating and defending un-Constitutional discrimination.

Agreed. Making it worse is that he alludes to the very Constitutaional Amendment (if he's aware that Seperation is a reference to and explanation of the religion clause in 1st Amendment) which prohibits such a ban as his justification for it.

So by my count that's now the first two Amendments he has shown himself to thoroughly misunderstand. He also admits to being a total know-nothing regarding foreign policy, notably including total ignorance of the right of return issue, despite claiming Israel policy as his stong suit. On top of that he has an inexcuasble tendency to deny ever saying things he is (often famously) on record for having said, sometimes denying something just minutes after saying it. Last, he appears to lack anything close to the anger management skills necessary to endure long presidential campaign, which, as difficult as it can be, probably dosen't test one's temper nearly as much as the actual job of POTUS.

I believe the problem is that in their desperate search for a reliable figure to rally behind, they're continually suckered by the most disparraging voice in the room tapping into their abject hatred for the left. Look at how quickly they surrender their credibility to support for such laughable yahoos as Palin, Bachmann, Joe the Plumber, etc. In every case their public humiliations are dismissed (even when they screw up conservative pet issues) as long as they display sufficient hatred and disprespect for the political opposition.

The term "rabid right" has never been more apt in my lifetime.
91Building 7
      Leader
      ID: 171572711
      Sun, Jul 17, 2011, 22:47
My God can beat up your God. Both football teams pray to God, too. Only one team can win.
 If you believe a recent post violates the policy on Civility and Respect,
you may report the abuse via email to moderators@rotoguru1.com 
RotoGuru Politics Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message:

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days11
Last 30 days32
Since Mar 1, 20073436817