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Subject: RIBC 2009: Draft Rationales (Rounds 9-16)


  Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 00:20

Continuing for the next 8 rounds.

Rationales for rounds 1-8
 
1Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 09:26
for JL
9.01 Andre Ethier OF LAD
Ethier is turning 23 this year and slugged over .500 last year. With Manny hitting behind him, I don’t see why Ethier won’t, at the very least, match last year’s stats. I could’ve used a CI here, but nothing available at the time was worth it.
 
2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 09:26
for holt
9.02 Howie Kendrick 2B LAA
My first MI of the draft. I figured Kendrick offered me the best mix of OPS and steals (15 hopefully). Kendrick's career minor league numbers were .360 .403 .571 in 1540 AB's. I don't expect him to do that in the majors but I do think there is room to improve on his major league numbers of .306 .333 .430.
 
3Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 12:49
for Da Bomb
9.03 Joel Hanrahan RP WAS
One closer won’t do much in this (or any) league so I decided to take Hanrahan here. Hanrahan has no competition for the closer role for the Nats and did a good job when he closed games late in the year last season.
 
4Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 12:49
for JKaye
9.04 Chris Iannetta C COL
I felt like there were only a couple of catchers left who had a pretty reasonable chance to post good numbers. Obviously someone could come from nowhere, like last year when I was able to get Shoppach off the FA list during the year in AAA. But Iannetta is a safe choice and a good value in round 8. He should be able to give me 60-60-.360-.460, which is good enough from C.
 
5Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 12:49
for Uptown Bombers
9.05 Frank Francisco RP TEX
I expected that a few closers would come off the board before my next pick and I figure I might as well grab one now before I get caught having to guess at a closer by committee situation. Francisco had some pretty good ratios and K’s for a closer and he seems to have the closer spot to himself, if he can get the job done, which becomes the case with a lot of these 3rd (4th? 5th?) tier closers. So I choose him above the others.
 
6Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 12:49
for Dave R
9.06 Adrian Beltre 3B SEA
As expected a thirdsacker made his way to my roster in round 9. Not the one I hoped ( Gordon ) but a serviceable one.

I was surprised to read that Beltre is only 30 years old, it seems to me he's been around forever. He had a career prior to signing with Seattle and never lived up to it. But he still should be good for 80-90 runs and RBI's, maybe a dozen steals and an OPS of around .800.

If he achieves those numbers, it's good enough for me

 
7Philsphan
      ID: 152332011
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 13:33
9.07 Yunel Escobar, SS ATL

I was really indifferent about this pick. There were so many good OF options right at this point, as well as some really good value picks at pitcher. There were so many other players that I really could have taken, but I needed a SS and didn’t want to wait any longer. He should give me 80+ runs.
 
9Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 13:34
for Bags
9.08 Johnny Damon OF NYY
I'm not sure when this pick was made but Damon was not who I wanted. I had told my daughter to move some closers to the top of my queue for my 9th round pick. I guess she needed a break from running my draft. I was having a blast fishing with friends and I had left her to babysit my draft. Damon should be ok. Looking at the draft when I got home I wish I had been here to make my pick. There are quite a few players I would have taken over a 3rd OF.
 
10Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 13:34
for filthy
9.09 Mike Gonzalez RP ATL
Another closer wouldn't hurt. Mike Gonzalez seems to have the job locked up so far. Good strikeout numbers, and seems to be right following surgery. Primed for a bounceback year, something along the lines of BJ Ryan's 2008 would be solid. Starting to get scared about my C/3B situation...
 
11Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 13:35
9.10 Ricky Nolasco, SP, Fla
Time for pitching. Nolasco added a cutter to his arsenal in mid-June, and from then on, the results were stellar. His second half: 2.93 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a little over a strikeout per inning. I’m not expecting a repeat of that “body of work” for this full season, but the potential is there. His home field is a favorable ballpark for pitchers, but he actually posted better numbers on the road – so the home field isn’t propping up his stats. Only age 26, and may be the opening day starter for the Marlins.
 
12Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 13:36
for dror
9.11 Jay Bruce OF CIN
Just like last year, I'm the last one to pick an OF. Too much sleepers/undervalued/breakout candidates in this position to take one early in my opinion.

I was actualy hoping to get Jayson Werth here, but he was picked long ago so I will settle for Bruce as the anchor of my OF. He had some trouble adjusting to the bigs last year but there are no questions about his talent and potential as a power hitter. Since the Reds lost both Griffey and Dunn, Bruce is counted on to play everyday in one of the most hitter friendly in baseball, so I'm looking for something like 0.360/0.510/80/95/10. A bit optimistic, but I think he can do it.

 
13Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 16:22
9.12 Carlos Guillen, 1b/3b, DET

I likely would have taken Kendrick if he were available. But I also knew I hadn't drafted a 3rd baseman yet. I had missed out on Zimmerman who I had targeted at this rough part of the draft, and Gordon and Beltre had both gone within the last round's worth of picks, so I thought it was time.

Guillen struggled a bit with injuries last year, and I am very hopeful that he is over them. He's moving to LF supposedly so perhaps that will lessen the strain on him physically. Projection-wise, not only was he the best 3b on the board (even better than some aforementioned players), but he was close to the best hitter on the board. When that happens, my choice becomes easy. The sets of projections I use as a rough guide don't like up like that too often, so I pulled the trigger.

I'm glad I did, because Blalock and Encarnacion went right after.
 
14Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 16:57
for rheo
9.13 Hank Blalock 3B TEX
Had a few guys I liked here. Beltre went before I got a chance to get him and went with Blalock. Another flexible guy with positions. Big injury risk but hoping the move to DH keeps him healthy most of the year.
 
15Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 16:57
for Bash Brothers
9.14 Brian Wilson RP SFO
The 2nd closer run was nearly at its end. I'd got to pick one before only debris is left. I was considering about Hoffman. But 40-something with injuries always made you think twice. In Wilson, I got a reliever whose work might not be seriously challenged. He could pile up saves while hurt me in ERA and WHIP. But I don't want to punt the save category. I even expected he might have lower ERA and less walk this year.
 
16Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 16:57
for coldwater coyotes
9.15 Edwin Encarnacion 3B CIN
A solid third baseman for this league with a projected .800 OPS and 80 RBI. I also wanted Trevor Hoffman but Encarnacion was more likely to fall in the next 2 picks.
 
17Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 18:18
for vampire weekend
9.16 Jose Lopez 2B SEA
10.01 Raul Ibanez OF PHI

ime for a 2b - do not know too much about him actually but he is thought to be a young one on the rise. Hope that is going to be the case.

Raul should love the move to Philadelphia - not just for the cheesesteaks. Hoping the run producing continues with a move to a high scoring team.

 
18Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 18:18
for coldwater coyotes
10.02 Trevor Hoffman RP MIL
At the time I thought I was in good shape taking Hoffman, a top second tier closer, only to subsequently find out about his injury. I guess that San Diego knew that age had taken its toll.
 
19Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 20:43
for Bash Brothers
10.03 Torii Hunter OF LAA
Picked a 3rd OFer here. I thought he could provide decent numbers and even a few steals. I don't wanna ask much, just hope he can maintain his numbers from 2008. That would be good for my 10th rounder.

However, this pick became my nightmare of this draft. I actually had a few candidates I liked very much here. They are on my pre-draft "must have" list. On reviewing other drafts, I thought they could come back to me in rd 11 and 12. It turned out they were all picked earlier than most other drafts. This disturbed my grand schema for this draft, and I stumbled in the next few rounds. Had I foreseen its happening, I would have "reached" for someone here.

 
20Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 20:43
for rheo
10.04 Mike Aviles SS KAN
Two of the guys I had wanted to pick here didn't make it back to me (Lopez and Encarnacion). Aviles is another guy with 2 positions to set me up later to pick the best player to fill the MI spot. I'm ok with him, not sure he'll repeat last year but I'm hoping. Really wanted Lopez though big time.
 
21Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 20:44
for Species
10.05 Carlos Zambrano SP
I wanted to add a pitcher this round. I only have 1 closer, but the only "closers" available include a stockpile of questionable closers - be it the strength of their grip on the role (Lyon, Motte, Sherrill, Zeigler) or some questions about their health (Devine). I just couldn't pull the trigger on a spot with so many questions in round 10.....

......especially when a legit #1 starter on a division winning team. Zambrano is a bit enigmatic with his walk rates, but he's a workhorse and he gets decent strikeouts. I expect him to improve on his 2008 numbers and be a very strong #2 on my staff.

 
22Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 20:44
for dror
10.06 Nelson Cruz OF TEX
Cruz was the best hitter at AAA last year before moving up for a couple of strong months in Texas. He is going to bat cleanup in one of the best lineup of the league and should be good for strong power number and about a dozen steals. I think he can easily outperform some of the OF taken way earlier.
 
23Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 20:45
10.07 Kevin Slowey, SP, Min

I wanted another pitcher here. The only closer who would have tempted me was Trevor Hoffman, be he disappeared a few picks ago. There are several starters who I have been eyeing - Slowey, Adam Wainwright, and Scott Baker head the list. I have Slowey rated slightly above the other two, so I went there, but might take one of the others if they are still around in round 11.

Slowey is just 24, and already has a solid season under his belt. His K ratio isn’t high (.77 K/IP), but I’ve seen reports that he may be improving in that regard. His low WHIP (1.15 in 2008) should also help compensate for my lack of dominating closers. He’s had a good spring so far (no big deal, but better than sucking). By waiting on starters until rounds 9-10, I want younger guys with upside, and Slowey fits that mold.
 
24filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Fri, Mar 20, 2009, 21:02
10.08 Pat Burrell, OF, TB

Still hurting for a C and a 3B, but Pat Burrell is still out there. I almost picked him last time around, so definitely had him queued up this time. The DRays offense should be frightening, and Burrell should not miss a step moving leagues. He moved into too good of a situation.
 
25Philsphan
      ID: 372341120
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 00:54
for Bags
10.09 Brandon Lyon, RP DET

Sometime before this pick I am able to drive a few miles to an area where I can get cell service. I was lucky to get my daughter before she is gone the rest of the day with her friends. My draft would have been hosed. After finding out I missed out on the closers I wanted in round 9 I have to walk my daughter through a fantasy baseball cheat sheet. She found some closers and set my queue for the next few rounds. Lyon has a chance to be a solid closer and doesn't have much competition. Due to recent spring training games, Lyons SUCKS! But he still doesn’t have much competition.
 
26Philsphan
      ID: 372341120
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 00:55
10.10 Joey Devine, RP, OAK

My first queue pick. I had, in order, Zambrano, Hunter and Burrell. All three were taken just before my pick. But Devine is a good risk-reward pick IMO. I think the only thing that keeps him from closing in Oakland is his health, and he seemed to get a clean bill today from what I can tell. He has a low ERA and WHIP, so even if he doesn’t close, his ratio numbers will fit in fine with my staff.
 
27Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 10:10
for Dave R
10.11 Edinson Volquez, SP, CIN
Another stellar starter for a crappy team.... when will I learn. Volquez came to the Reds in a rare trade that had huge benefits for both teams, with Hamilton going to Texas. He immediately started strong, before seeing his stats slowly diminish, possibly to a heavier workload than he had ever experienced.

He still finished with a ERA of 3.21 and WHIP of 1.33 fanning a outstanding 206 batters in just 196 innings. And 17 wins. Similar stats are expected, well, maybe hoped for.

 
28Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 10:10
10.12 Scott Baker, SP, MIN
I sort of misplayed this. My original thought when making this pick was that I was going to go SP in this round and next. So I grabbed Baker, even though there were lots of SP that I liked. But after reassessing the draft, I started to think that I should draft offense in round 11. And if that was the case, then I should have just grabbed my offensive target here and taken whichever SP made it back to me. Now I have to sweat to see if Placido Polanco will make it back to me, which in itself demonstrates how competitive this league is.
 
30JKaye
      Leader
      ID: 01372359
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 10:22
10.13 Felipe Lopez, 2B, Ari

2B and MI seem to get me every year. Last year I took a SS first
(Hanley) and then waited and waited, but kept hesitating on the
trigger for a 2B, filling a different need each time. I ended up
with Mark Ellis and Mark Grudzielanek. Well, I vowed not to have
the same thing happen this year. And yet, it kind of did. I
considered taking Weeks in round 7, but went with Connor
Jackson. That is probably my biggest regret of the draft so far.

I am hopeful that Lopez will work out. It is almost pointless to
try and project him because his stats have fluctuated as often as
he has changed teams. But something about this year makes me
like Lopez, as a leadoff hitter in a good park. If he can deliver a
.350 OBA and .400 SLG with a fair amount of runs and 8-10 SB, I
will live with it. There are many MI that can't sniff a 700 OPS, so
I will take what I can get here. Now I just need one more.
 
31Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:10
for Da Bomb
10.14 Matt Lindstrom RP FLA
Having two closers will put me in the middle of the pack in saves, but 3 will place me towards the top. Lindstrom was one of the last closers remaining who had a secure lock on the role so I decided to snatch him up here.
 
32Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:10
for holt
10.15 Chris Young OF ARI
I wanted Lindstrom with my 10th pick. Of course DaBomb grabbed him immediately before my pick. DaBomb pulled similar crap on me in the dirty dozen draft. I'm gonna start calling him DaSack.

Anyway, I took Corey Hart on rd 6, I may as well take Corey Hart Light in rd 10. I normally gravitate toward good OBP low strikeout type guys. Things are just different this year. If you want your SB's you have to accept some crap hitting here and there. Young's SLG is fine, but I'm really really hoping he can improve on last year's .317 OBP. I don't know how long I can tolerate that.

 
33Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:11
for JL
10.16 Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pit
11.01 John Danks, SP, ChW

The LaRoche pick is pretty simple. I just needed a 1B before all decent options were off the board. I don’t have high expectations for LaRoche, but he’s been good for 80+ RBIs the last few seasons with a reasonable OPS. For a 1B at the end of the 10th round, that’s fine.

I may have reached for Danks here, but he’s 23 and posted a 3.30 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, with a nice K rate last season. I would think that he’s only going to improve as he becomes a more mature pitcher. I don’t understand why he’s rated so low.
 
34Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:11
for holt
11.02 Miguel Tejada SS HOU
Why is Tejada going in the 11th rd now? I'll tell ya why. 2008 OPS = .729! argh. Obviously I'm hoping he bounces back, adjusts to the NL and the Astros short left field wall, starts juicing again, whatever. This late in the draft I'll take my chances. At least with Tejada there is some hope of something good happening. The other SS's on the board offered very little of that.
 
35Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:11
for Da Bomb
11.03 Erik Bedard SP SEA
When healthy, Bedard has ace-caliber stuff. However, Bedard’s health is a big enough risk that it has cost him to slide to the 11th round. He’s both pitched well so far this Spring and has also missed time with an injury to his gluteus maximus. Right now it’s up in the air if he is able to hold up for the season, but I’m willing to take the risk.
 
36Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:12
for JKaye
11.04 Jason Motte, P, St.L
This may turn into my favorite pick of the draft, or it could be a somewhat wasted pick. He has not been named the closer, but I decided to speculate (note I didn't use the word assume, because we all know what happens then...) that Motte will be named the closer.

Perez is out a few days, and the day before this pick was made LaRussa tried Motte in a 4 out save, a test he passed. I only had Mariano at CL, so it was crucial to find a 2nd closer. If Motte is awarded the job, he could immediately become one of the better ones.

 
37Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:13
for Uptown Bombers
11.05 Placido Polanco 2B DET
The good news: Polanco made it to my pick. The bad news: I’m excited by that. Much like my Kelly Johnson pick, I liked other players better, but the MI pickings were slim. I figure at least Polanco brings good OBP and runs, with a handful of steals.
 
38Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:13
for Dave R
11.06 Ervin Santana SP LAA
Due to a mix up regarding queues and designated pickers, primarily on my end, I logged onto my computer while away to see Ervin on my roster. I had been eyeing him for a while, but was concerned about his elbow woes, he's already supposedly out for April.

None the less, we move on. Ervin had a wonderful season, 16 wins, and ERA of 3.29, WHIP of 1.12, and striking out nearly a batter per inning. Obviously, with missing April, I have to temper my expectations. I'll just keep my fingers crossed that April is all he misses and he comes back strong.

If I had made my pick myself, I probably would have gone after Wainwright, Dempster or Cain, all taken shortly after 11.06.

 
39Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:14
for Philsphan
11.07 Vernon Wells OF TOR
This could be a real value pick if this guy returns to form. If I can get 80-90 R and RBI with SLG and OBP around his career averages I will be very happy at this stage of the draft. If he reverts to his 2006 form then I’ve caught lightning in a bottle.
 
40Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:14
for Bags
11.08 Cameron Maybin OF FLA
I might be a year early on what I think Maybin will do but he could also bust out this year for close to 30/30. Still fishing.
 
41Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:14
for filthy
11.09 Pablo Sandoval C SFO
Too bad I can't clone this guy, I would have my catcher and 3b problems solved. Either way, this guy is gonna fill a weak position, hopefully with a strong bat. Sandoval seems to hit everywhere he goes, and I am glad to reach for a pick like this.
 
42Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:15
11.10 Adam Wainwright, SP, StL
If Vernon Wells had survived to this pick, I might have jumped in as a value pick. And if Ervin Santana had still been available, I might have gone there, in spite of his current injury.

Wainwright is someone I considered last round. I don’t necessarily expect him to repeat last year’s 3.20 ERA or 1.18 WHIP – but he might. His K/IP of .69 is not attractive, but maybe that’s the price for keeping his ratios in check. He’s likely to be the opening day starter for the Cardinals, and at age 27, could still be on the rise. He lost a few starts due to injuries last year, but nothing that appears to be chronic.

After being the final team to take a first starter, I’ve now landed three in rounds 9-11: Nolasco, Slowey, and Wainwright – putting me slightly ahead of the average SP head count at this juncture. I’m comfortable with them as the foundation of my staff, and will probably work on other needs in the next few rounds.
 
43Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sat, Mar 21, 2009, 19:17
for dror
11.11 Ryan Dempster SP CHC
Dempster was known as a shaky closer for years before joining the rotation last year with no expectations and ending up with 2.91 ERA and 187 Ks, easily good for a spot among the top 10 SP of 2008.

His sabermetric stats and strong spring suggest that he probably isn't a one year fluke, and if he even comes close to last year's numbers I will be more then happy with this pick.

 
44Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:14
for Species
11.12 Matt Cain SP SFO
A little bit of a homer pick here, but Cain was showing strong in my projections. Pitching in AT&T Park, easily a top 2 pitchers park in baseball - combined with an overall pretty weak division gives Cain the chance to turn his immense potential into a strong season. I wanted 1 more strong strikeout person to add to my rotation. If he only cut down the walks he could be a top 25 fantasy pitcher.
 
45Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:14
for rheo
11.13 Brad Ziegler RP OAK
The closers were all but gone and tried to get one more to go with Ryan. Devine's had some health issues this spring so hoping the job goes to Ziegler. If not then this is too early but I should still get some decent numbers out of him. As the round started I was really hoping the Vernon Wells would keep dropping since I think he's an incredible value but no such luck.
 
46Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:15
for Bash Brothers
11.14 Josh Johnson SP FLA
Decent mid-rotation SP went off board quickly. Prior to my pick, there were 6 SPs & 2 RPs taken in round 11. So I had to react quickly. After coming off disabled list in the 2nd half of 2008, Johnson pitched like a staff ace and posted quality numbers in K, ERA, and WHIP. He is still very young and can sustain that high level of play, if he remains healthy all year long. Of course, that's a big if.
 
47Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:15
for coldwater coyotes
11.15 Milton Bradley OF CHC
A worth while gamble. If he could get 500 abs then he will contribute 80 RBI at a .900 OPS. Lets hope Pinella will keep him in control.
 
48Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:16
for vampire weekend
11.16 Willy Taveras OF CIN
12.01 David Price SP TAM


I am holding someone in new Mexico responsible for this one as I had no idea price was ticketed for triple a - a place I will be joining him for next years ribc - does it make me a bad person if I hope other tb pitchers get injured?

With tavarez I hope he leads off, gets on base, and steals a bunch of bases.
 
49Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:17
for coldwater coyotes
12.02 Elijah Dukes OF WAS
A strong candidate for a breakout season. My third OF and I am looking for at least 15 SB to add to 65 RBI and a .850 OPS.
 
50Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:17
for Bash Brothers
12.03 Orlando Hudson 2B LAD
Ouch! I picked him only out of panic. All the quality 2Bs were long gone. And I cannot but choose him. I actually don't even know what to expect from him, esp. considering his season-ending injury in 2008 and his move to pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium this year. If my rd 18 pick Teahen is named the starter, I will probably relegate Hudson to my bench. Very likely a wasted pick, which stemmed from my awful decision in round 10.
 
51Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 07:17
for rheo
12.04 Paul Konerko 1B CWS
The redemption bat theme continues. Not expecting the 40 homer version but I think he can get back to 30 with a good average. Another pick I didn't have much hesitation with. I did like Hudson this year but I thought he might go to my next pick. Guess not.
 
52filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 12:21
for Species
12.05 Ryan Theriot, SS, CHC
I call this my blue hen special pick as Theriot has always been a weird man-crush for him. This is not a pick I liked, but more one I felt I had to make. I didn't have a SS yet and the MI's were getting scarcer than dates with Scarlet Johanssen. Hopefully Theriot can remain atop a potent Cubs lineup, score a ton of runs, get 20 steals and do fine in OBP. I can take the weak SLG.
 
53filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 12:22
for dror
12.06 Coco Crisp, OF, KC
The Royals are paying Crisp very big money in their standard so it's pretty clear they are going to hand him their everyday job in center field along with the leadoff spot in the lineup. I see the basement for him as 80 runs and 25 steals with weak OPS, but if he somehow gets it going like in his old Cleveland days I can end up with a big time steal here.
 
54filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 12:22
for Guru
12.07 Mark Reynolds, 3B, ARI
Reynolds set the major league strikeout record in 2008 by whiffing once in every 2.64 at-bats. And although he only batted .254, he at least knows how to draw a walk, as his OBA was a much more respectable .320, while slugging .458 and swiping 11 bases. At age 25, I’m hoping for progress – particularly in putting more balls in play. Something like 80-80-10-.330/.475 would be nice.

The other hitter on my short list was Ryan Theriot, but Species took that decision out of my hands.

 
55filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 12:26
12.08 Justin Verlander, SP, DET

Definitely time to start looking at pitching. Verlander makes a very good number 2 behind Doc. Detroit Tigers as a whole were a wreck last year. Verlander is still young and still has potential for a big year. I fully expect him and the Tigers to rebound this year.
 
56Philsphan
      ID: 372341120
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 14:04
for Bags
12.09 George Sherrill, RP Orioles

A pick that I had my daughter fill in for me. After round 11 if I was able to get Maybin I told her to find the best available closer. At the time I thought it was a good pick. News out of spring training lately hasn’t been very kind to my 12th round selection. Still fishing.
 
57Philsphan
      ID: 372341120
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 14:06
12.10 Jorge Posada, C NYY

I really, really, really wanted Justin Verlander with this pick. I was so confident that I would get him that I didn’t really research anyone else. So thanks Filthy for ruining my night ;-).

I was very tempted to take either Verlander, Wells or Dempster last round. So I guess if it came down to it I would rather have Wells than the other two.

Posada makes sense here for me. Nobody else really stuck out at me, and according to my lists Posada was equal with everybody on the board right now. I was also eyeing Sandoval, but he went in the previous round.

So long Posada stays healthy he should provide sufficient numbers for this position.
 
58Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 19:44
for Dave R
12.11 Lastings Milledge, OF WAS
Potential , Potential , Potential. At least I'm hoping.

Mixed reviews for Lastings in his first full season. For the first 80 games, his stats were not particularly impressive, before being shelved by a strained groin. Upon returning he batted .299 with 7 HR's and 11 steals in just 58 games.

I'm seeing projections around 80 runs and RBI's, an OPS of .780. A planned move to the leadoff spot should enable him to top 30 steals. I think excellent value as my 3rd OFer.

Run, Lastings, run.....

 
59Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 19:44
12.12 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
I was hoping to land Milledge here, but I just missed out on him. I had a few SP’s on my list, but figured one would come back to me. So I looked across the offensive players and settled on Helton. I choose him above the other CI choices because he offers such a big boost in OBP. I am hoping for a year just like 2007, and don’t think that is out of the question. All of this hinges on his health, but so far the reports have been positive. Maybe with Holliday out of the picture, more RBI chances will fall Helton’s way and he can creep back to 100.
 
60JKaye
      Leader
      ID: 01372359
      Sun, Mar 22, 2009, 21:18
12.13 Derek Lowe, P, Atl

I was very happy to land Lowe here. Not a spectacular starter, but a
pretty steady one. There is some concern that his numbers were
somewhat enhanced by pitching at home in pitcher friendly LA.
We'll see how those translate to Atlanta. I do know that he is
probably the opening day starter, and his good control means he
can keep his WHIP down. Can't ask for much more from a 12th
round pick, and my #3 SP.
 
62Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 02:57
12.14 Orlando Cabrera, SS, Oak

Would have taken Lowe but he was snatched one pick before. Cabrera is my first MI and he'll provide solid production and about 20 SB hitting near the top of Oakland's lineup.


for holt
12.15 Chris Young SP SDG
Hard to pass Young up this late in the draft. He has a sub 1.19 career whip and is good for close to a K per inning. I'll take 170 innings of that if I can get it. Not expecting much in the Wins colum though. The Padres stink.

 
63JL
      ID: 18233237
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 09:34
12.16 Kevin Gregg, RP, ChC
13.01 Huston Street, RP, Col


Reports out of the Cubs camp say that Lou Piniella may be inclined to leave Marmol in the setup role and let Gregg close. Marmol is clearly the better pitcher, but I won’t argue with Lou. A decent closer in the 13th round works for me.

Somebody has to win the closer job in Colorado, and I’m just wildly guessing that it will be Street. If he can stay healthy, he’s a better pitcher with more closing experience than Corpas. I don’t have any other sources of saves, so I needed to gamble here.
 
64Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:01
for holt
13.02 Troy Percival RP TAM
Argh. The last of the sure starting closers left on the board. As long as he isn't on the DL this should be OK. In hindsight, I should have taken my second closer instead of Alex Gordon at 8.15. Percival is pretty difficult to handcuff too. No way I was going to try to draft both Wheeler and Balfour. That would just make a bigger disaster out of this thing. I can still do well in saves though. Nathan, Percival, FA's, trades maybe...
 
65Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:02
for Da Bomb
13.03 Jason Giambi 1B OAK
Giambi is one of those players who is more valuable in this type of scoring system with his ability to draw walks to make up for his low AVG. Now back in Oakland, I’m expecting Giambi to return to his MVP form from earlier in the decade. Well, not really, but I’d be happy with a repeat of last year’s numbers.
 
66Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:02
for JKaye
13.04 David Dejesus, OF, KC

Not a lot of upside with the pick, but if he can hit the .350
OBA/.450 SLG marks, and stay healthy, he should be a solid
contributor to all 3 counting stats (80-80-10). There's talk of
him sliding down to 3rd with the acquisition of Crisp, so the RBI
total may have upside. Sometimes you look at a guy's stats and
yearn to find something more. Surely there are players available
who will outperform Dejesus this year - but a good many of the
available options will bust as well. A good balance of speculative
picks and reliable ones like this is what I'm trying to achieve.
 
67Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:03
for Uptown Bombers
13.05 Clayton Kershaw SP LAD
Kershaw is young but has lots of upside. He struggled last year, but got better as the season went on, leading to an awesome September. I don’t expect him to put it all together this year, but I do expect improvement over last year’s numbers and lots of K’s. The other options I considered were Chris Young and Ted Lilly, but I didn’t like the idea of minor elbow problems for Young and Lilly, though he has put up great numbers, doesn’t offer the potential Kershaw does. I figured this was a good time to gamble on youth. As it turned out, Young went a few picks earlier, but this pick was made from my queue and I had decided to put Kershaw at the top so I am optimistic.
 
68Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:03
for Dave R
13.06 Mike Jacobs 1B KAN
One if the intriguing things of this league is how deep we have to go. We not only need a 1st and 3rd baseman, but field a Corner Infielder also. Same with the middle.

The pickings were slim for a CI, in my opinion, so I thought I should grab one while there was some still standing. Jacobs fits the bill.

Although he will likely share 1B with , he still seems a lock for 450 AB's. That should generate around 70 runs and RBI's. Inspite of poor plate discipline ( which he vows he's improving ), Jacobs has a career OPS of .816.

 
69Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:03
for Philsphan
13.07 Aaron Harang SP CIN
I’ve been eyeing this guy for a couple of rounds now. I would have preferred Dempster as my #3 starter and I was even looking at Kershaw who went 4 picks before mine.

After two pretty good years in 2006 and 2007, Harang was perfectly awful last year. So this year he reportedly comes to camp 25 pounds lighter, and there is virtually no chatter about him this spring so far. Sounds like a Comeback Player of the Year candidate to me.

Let’s say he recovers from last year to give me results somewhere between 2007 and 2008. That’s still 12-14 wins and 180+ K’s, along with an ERA under 4.00 and WHIP around 1.20-1.25.

But I prefer to think I have the 2008 version of Cliff Lee.

 
70Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:03
for Bags
13.08 Ted Lilly SP CHC
I think I had my daughter research this pick for me. I told her to find me a starter. I like Lilly he plays on a good team so should be good for 15 wins. He is also a good strikeout pitcher with decent era and whip. All fished out, we caught everything. I hope to make back for my next pick.
 
71Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:04
for filthy
13.09 Gavin Floyd SP CWS
Floyd sure broke out last year. Came out of the gates real strong and slowed down as the year went along, but that is often expected of a young arm in its first full season. Year end numbers were still quite good and I fully expect to see more growth out of my 3rd starter.
 
72Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:05
13.10 Jack Cust, OF, Oak
The outfield is more crowded in Oakland with the Holliday signing, but Cust still has OF eligibility in this league, even if most of his action this season is at DH. Last year, he batted only .231, but he still posted an OBA of .375, after three years north of .400. Cust had the same number of walks (111) as hits, and almost twice as many strikeouts. It’s unusual to find someone so sub-par in BA yet above average in OBP. But maybe that’s why he’s still available here, since he wouldn’t rank as highly in a typical league that uses batting average. I just hope he puts the ball in play enough to stay in the lineup.

I thought about getting someone to bolster my steals, but thought the tradeoffs vs. Cust were too great. And I still have only one closer. That wasn’t the original plan, and I don’t yet have a strategy to deal with that, but taking a very marginal closer now doesn’t seem like the best answer.

Too bad we don’t award points for hitter strikeouts. With Mark Reynolds and Cust, I’d have two studs.
 
73Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 13:07
for dror
13.11 Matt Wieters C BAL
In both my years of playing RIBC leagues I owed a lot of my success to strong contributions from the catcher spot (Martin in 2007, Mauer last year). The plan this year was to take Posada in something like the 14th, so I had to go in a different direction once Philsphan grabbed him in the 12th.

Wieters is considered the top hitting prospect the game has saw in years. I read reports go as far as saying that he already is a top 3 MLB catcher and an above average cleanup hitter. It's clear the O's are gonna play the super 2 thing and keep him in the minors until mid May, but if he lives up to the hype 4 months of him along with 2 months of replacement level should be worth much more then a 13th round pick.

 
74Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:29
for Species
13.12 Shin-Soo Choo OF CLE
Choo was very clearly at or near the top of both of my projection guides. I was one of the few teams without a 3rd outfielder after taking 2 in my first 4 picks, so it was time to round out the roster a bit. Choo is not spectacular in any category but a does a little in all 5 and makes a solid contribution to my squad.
 
75Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:30
for rheo
13.13 Billy Butler 1B KAN
Maybe a reach here but I like what he can do this year. It's like what someone said earlier, in this league if you really want someone you usually have to reach.
 
76Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:30
for Bash Brothers
13.14 Chien-Ming Wang SP NYY
The patriotic pick. How can you not support your compatriots while playing high-level fantasy baseball? He and Hong-Chih Kuo were on my list of "must have", and I didn't mind that I might have taken him a few picks too early (Of course, dror ruined my plan and drafted Kuo just 3 picks before mine).

I've taken 3 pitchers who might have decent (or respectable) Ks, ERAs, and WHIPs (Greinke, Vazquez, and Josh Johnson). But I seriously doubt they will garner enough Ws. Wang is low on Ks but definitely can pile up lots of wins, especially considering he's playing for the Yankees. He returned home a few months earlier and told everybody he had completely recovered from his injury. Expecting 18-20W here.

 
77Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:30
for coldwater coyotes
13.15 Jim Thome UTL CWS
A little early in the draft to commit to the Util spot but Thome could make a very strong contribution to my team. Lets hope that he will repeat last year's 90 RBI and .863 OPS.
 
78Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:31
for vampire weekend
13.16 Jose Arredondo RP LAA
14.01 Manuel Corpas RP COL

Along with Marmol, I am hoping that 2 of the 3 nail down the closer role at some point during the season. Otherwise, I am going to be staying up late in hopes of catching last minute closer changes.

Arredondo has sick stuff and Fuentes has not been impressive so far this spring along with some back issues. Will be happy with his expected low WHIP/high K either way.

Corpas reported in great shape trying to regain the closer role. Hoping it works out for him or he is a solid low WHIP/high K set-up man.

 
79Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:31
for coldwater coyotes
14.02 Max Scherzer SP ARI
Follows my previous SP picks, Harden and Joba, in that he will have a low ERA and WHIP and high Ks. How many starts and wins will he get is the big question...hopefully 150 IP with 12 wins.
 
80Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:31
for Bash Brothers
14.03 Jorge Cantu 3B FLA
Thought hard about whom to pick, Cantu or Carpenter. I've already had 4 SPs, and I had to fill the MI and CI spots sooner than later. Moreover, I always thought Hudson was a question mark as my 2nd baseman, so I decided to go hitting here. Had I known I would get Nick Johnson, Teahen, and Khalil Greene later, I probably would have drafted Carpenter here.

Cantu can hit for some power and is in the middle of Marlin's lineup. Of course, his OBP might be a nightmare to me.

 
81Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Mar 23, 2009, 22:32
for rheo
14.04 Matt Garza SP TAM
Another pitcher I like. Really gives me a strong base for my starters in my opinion. Another guy I picked as what I thought was the best player out there.
 
82filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 08:45
for Species
14.05 Chris Ray, RP, BAL
I was hammered when I made this pick. It was not a good pick with the likes of Jered Weaver available. I knew I would need to take some chances on some players who are not favored to be their team's closers. I just did it too early with Ray. That being said, before he got hurt Ray was a solid mid-level closer with good stuff. Sherrill put up a lot of saves last year but seems more in the lefty setup mode, and some whispers of Sherrill just holding the fort until they feel Ray is ready have been heard in Baltimore.
 
83filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 08:46
for dror
14.06 Mike Fontenot, UTL, CHC
The Cubs for some reason decided to sign an undrafted player to compete with Fontenot for the 2B job, but it's clear Mike is the superior player and should start regularly against righties. I'm hoping for 450-500 at bets of positive OPS and 60-70 runs and RBIs, not bad for the hardest spot on the lineup the fill.
 
84Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 08:50
14.07 Fred Lewis, OF, SF
133 games in 2008, with 21 steals and an .791 OPS, in spite of a high strikeout rate (seems to be a team theme). This year, he should be the regular left fielder, and bat third. Hopefully, that gives him an opportunity to hit for some power and drive in some runs, while still getting to run. Age 28, so he’s no kid, but he should be around his peak years.

There aren’t many decent base stealing options available at this point – at least those with other cats that are respectable. Lewis has that potential.
 
85filthy
      ID: 388531216
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 08:58
14.08 Josh Fields, 3B, CWS

My corner infield situation is looking pretty grim at this point. I could slide Sandoval over still, but I don't really like him as a starting third baseman. I also thought Nick Johnson and Un Drafted would be good picks here. But Josh Fields stood out like a sore thumb for a team needing a starting 3rd baseman in the 14th round. I will need insurance still, not to mention a CI as well, but Fields is a good start. White Sox offense generally ends the year among the leaders.
 
86Philsphan
      ID: 152332011
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 15:30
for Bags

14.09 Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS
Back from fishing! The fishing was great - it tasted even better. After looking over my draft I felt the biggest need at the time was a hitter who could provide some SLG. Looking over what was available Lowell looked solid enough. If his hip is back to full strength he could SLG near .450.
 
87Philsphan
      ID: 152332011
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 15:31
14.10 Ryan Spilborghs, OF, COL

I was looking for the best overall player for this pick, and I had been eyeing Spilborghs for a while. There is a chance he bats leadoff and therefore may score a lot of runs. He shouldn’t hurt my OBP/SLG ratios at all.
 
88Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:03
for Dave R
14.11 Jered Weaver SP LAA
With my concerns over Santana's health, I felt another starter was needed, so why not get another Angel, one with injury concerns as well ;). I've always liked Weaver, but he hasn't pitched well this spring so there are possible shoulder issues, now I'm reading.

Hopefully he remains healthy, notches 14 or so wins, K's 160 batters and posts an ERA below 4 and WHIP around 1.20

 
89Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:04
for Uptown Bombers
14.12 Adam Jones OF BAL
I needed another OF here and was trying to pick up steals. This choice came down to Jones and Delmon Young. Young was highly touted a few years ago as a power and speed player but so far that hasn’t translated in the majors. Part of me felt like gambling that Young might put it together, but the MIN OF is crowded and I was concerned about playing time. On the other hand, Jones seems to have locked in his starting spot. He likely won’t outperform Young in the power categories, but Jones has been running like crazy in spring training and I’m hoping for that to continue once the season starts. Jones should easily build on last year’s numbers as he becomes more comfortable in the majors and give me another OF that gets on base, scores runs, and steals bases. That seems to have become a trend for my later picks, and I’ll need to try and pick up some SLG and RBI cheaply in the later rounds.
 
90Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:04
for JKaye
14.13 Mike Cameron OF MIL
I almost feel like Cameron is a better choice than the OF I chose in the previous round - David Dejesus. Cameron still has good power and speed, and I am hoping for a .470 SLG and 15-20 SB. His OBP is lacking, but .330-.340 will do. He is up there in age, but played well last year after serving his suspension. I think he is good value in round 14.
 
91Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:04
for Da Bomb
14.14 Chris Carpenter SP STL
I was deciding between Carpenter and Randy Johnson with this pick and decided to go with Carpenter because even though he’s pitched in just five games the last two years, I think he has a better chance of staying healthy this season between the two. Carpenter has pitched extremely well this Spring and if he’s able to stay on the mound he can have a big year again.
 
92Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:05
for holt
14.15 J.D. Drew OF BOS
I've always been a big Drew fan. I know, it's weird. The good thing about him being DL-prone is that you can get him cheap every year. The bad thing is that he hits the DL every year, BUT, he does have a lot more PA's over the past few seasons that people give him credit for.

.927 OPS last year, .894 career, very solid .400 obp .500 slg candidate, and he does have right around 1600 PA's over the past 3 seasons. It's damn near the 15th rd so I really like this pick. Yes, he had a complaint of back pain this spring. If you let a Drew complaint of pain scare you then you'll never get close to being a Drew owner. All ballplayers feel some kind of pain pretty much all the time. J.D. likes to talk about his (pretty much more than anybody). If you haven't followed his career closely you'd probably actually be surprised at some of the injuries he's played through. He plays hard, is pretty tough, and is one of the most talented hitters in the league, and he never has and never will get any credit for any of those things. Maybe that's why I'm a fan. It makes it so I can draft him late every year. No I don't smoke crack.

 
93Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 16:05
for JL
14.16 Melvin Mora 3B BAL
15.01 Brandon Morrow SP SEA

It’s the 14th round and I still didn’t have a 3B. I really didn’t have a lot of choices. Mora has a regular job and wasn’t pretty good last year, so that’s really all it took to convince me.

Morrow was just a best player available pick. His K rate was great last season and he’s young, so he’s got the upside to be a useful player.

 
94Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 23:54
for holt
15.02 Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD
I'm pretty sure DaBomb knew I was going to take Carpenter at 14.15. If I had gotten Carp I would have taken Drew (probably) at this pick and someone else would have gotten Kuroda and I'd be happy with it. Anyway, with only Hamels, Haren, and CYoung in my rotation I definitely needed to take another stab here.

The Dodgers look pretty good. Could mean a lot of wins for Kuroda. The other SP I looked at were Randy Johnson (old, and a Giant), Cueto, just barely (young, wild, a Red, too unproven). Kuroda was pretty much the only SP I could stomach as an early 15 rd pick. Wish it had been Carpenter or maybe Kershaw.

Kuroda had a 3.73 era and a 1.22 whip last year. I'm gambling that he can reproduce those numbers. If he does, I think his W's could take a big jump from the crappy 9 of last season. Hopefully his K's improve slightly as well.

 
95Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 23:55
for Da Bomb
15.03 Kaz Matsui, 2B, HOU
I only had one MI up until this point and I wanted to get another one here before the pickings got really slim. Matsui has put up pretty good numbers the last couple years and chips in with steals as well but the issue with him is that he’s never played in more than 114 games in a season.
 
96Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 23:56
for JKaye
15.04 Randy Johnson, P, SF

Not too many SP, if any, left on the board, project to have a sub-4
ERA and a sub-1.3 WHIP. RJ is that guy, and while his IP total may
not be up to par with some of the remaining options, his ratios are
still in tact. It is amazing that he is 45 years old. That sentence
deserves a pause. He is 45. Wow. And yet, I have confidence that
his ERA/WHIP will be solid, his K's are always good and he will be a
a solid #4 SP for my staff.
 
97Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Tue, Mar 24, 2009, 23:56
15.05 Gil Meche, KC, SP
This was another queue pick, as the odd number rounds have kept falling just short of getting back to me before I leave for work in the morning with very limited access. Luckily, that has meant that I haven’t had to leave long queues and have been fairly confident having an idea of who I will be getting. I almost took Delmon Young last round, and a good part of me wanted to leave him at the top of my queue this round, but there were a number of OF’s I still liked and a fewer starting pitchers that offered high K rates without threatening the other ratios. Meche seems underappreciated since he pitches in KC, but his last two years are very promising. He has averaged a 3.83 ERA, 1.31 Whip, 170 K’s and 11.5 wins. I have no reason to expect that his numbers will suffer this year and as my 4th SP, those seem like good enough numbers to me.
 
98Philsphan
      ID: 152332011
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 09:44
For DaveR

15.06 J J Putz, RP, NYM
Set up guys can be invaluable, especially one of Putz's caliber with closing experience. In particular when your number one closer pitches for the same team ( KRod )

I felt this was a good opportunity to set up some insurance in the event KRod goes down, or even if they share some of the closer responsibilities.

Putz will strike out better than a batter an inning, post an ERA south of 3 and a WHIP in the low 1's. At worst he vultures a few saves.

 
99Philsphan
      ID: 152332011
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 09:46
15.07 Jair Jurrjens, SP, ATL

Before the pickings get too slim, I thought I would get my 4th starter here. There is still plenty of time to mine the field for those gems that are still out there, but I’ll feel better knowing I have my foundational four in place first. Looking for a breakout year, but numbers close to last year would be terrific.
 
100Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 10:08
for Bags
15.08 Jarrod Saltalamacchia C TEX
The centerpiece of the Teixeira trade with ATL Salty has struggled to produce in two brief seasons with Texas. I think that will change this year. He is still only 24 and had a good winter ball season that has carried over to spring training where he has hit .341/.408/.614. He should be in a platoon with unnamed but should get the majority of the playing time. Salty/unnamed combo should produce good numbers in this Texas lineup. In the AAA RIBC’s he went in the 13th and the 23rd, I didn’t want to chance loosing out on him so I took him even before other higher ranked C’s were taken.
 
101Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 10:09
for filthy
15.09 Chris Dickerson OF CIN
If Brandon Morrow was around I would've picked a pitcher here. But I was mainly looking for a bat here, more importantly a bat with legs. Pretty much just peeked at the spring steals leaders and Dickerson was the only name left that appealed to me. The Reds could have a pretty exciting offense, and I don't expect Dickerson to hit like he did when he first came up but if he can tread water and add some steals I will be happy.
 
102Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 10:10
15.10 Elvis Andrus, SS, Tex
20-year old rookie SS for the Rangers, who came in the Teixeira trade. Seems primed to play everyday, although he’ll probably bat 9th. The Rangers moved Mike Young to 3B to make room for Andrus. Has no power, but hopefully will get on base enough to run – and if so, I’ve seen projected steals totals in the range of 20-45. At the upper end, he’s a “steal”.

BaseballHQ.com seems to be the most optimistic on him for this year, projecting 66-53-43-.314-.336. A speculative pick, for sure, but I need a third middle infielder and I need some steals, and he fills both of those needs. According to manager Ron Washington, “I just expect him to play baseball because he's a ballplayer.” I may have taken him too early, but in round 15, it’s not like I’m leaving rock solid options on the table – especially among middle infielders.
 
103Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 10:11
for dror
15.11 Randy Winn OF SFO
Finally, a returning player from 2008. Winn was solid as my 4th OF last year, and is back on top of the Giants lineup for another season.

A repeat of last year (non damaging OPS, 85 runs, 25 SB) will do just fine.

 
104Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 11:56
15.12 Asdrubal Cabrera, 2b/SS, CLE

I wasn't fascinated with many of the middle infielders left so I decided to take one with some upside for once. It also helped that Cabrera qualified at both MI positions for maximum flexibility.
 
105Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 11:57
for rheo:

15.13 Travis Snider, OF, TOR
I think I jumped the gun a bit here with this pick. I like Snider's chances for a solid year and don't regret taking him but I think I could of probably waited a bit. Just talked myself into thinking he'd go soon as I saw the "prospect/youngster" run going before me with Saltalamacchia, Dickerson and Andrus going. Was thinking about pitching before, but that would end up waiting.
 
106Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:55
For Bash Brothers:

15.14 Khalil Greene, SS, STL
Another low OBP guy with some pop in his bat. After this pick, I started to worry about how far I might fall behind in the OBP category. At least he moved out the Petco, and I viewed this as a huge plus. I am hoping he can have a slugging-happy year.
 
107Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:56
For coldwater coyotes:

15.15 Casey Kotchman, 1b, ATL
Kotchman will take the CI spot. He has shown little power to date but is dependable. I can expect 80 RBI and runs with an .810 OPS.
 
108Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:56
For vampire weekend:

15.16 Kendry Morales, 1b LAA
16.01 Johnny Cueto, SP, CIN

Severely challenged with people who are not currently eligble for their positions. Kendry is expected to hold the Angels 1B position after strong minor league position. Very unclear whether he will show corner power but I had let most of the other viable candidates go by and needed someone.

Cueto was WHIP challenged and a bit unlucky last year along with a love of giving up the long ball. High k's are an almost guarantee with the hope that he can improve on last year.

 
109Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:57
For coldwater coyotes:

16.02 Rick Ankiel, OF, STL
I disputed whether to take a short stop or my final outfielder. I gambled that either Bartlett or Guzman would be available at my next pick but alas they were both taken later in this round. Lets hope the ex-pitcher comes through with 90+ RBI and an .830 OPS.
 
110Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:57
For Bash Brothers:

16.03 Nick Johnson, 1b, WAS
Decided to go pitching before finding Johnson was too good to pass. When healthy, his OBP is incredible. And he could hit for some power too. This was the "best available" pick. I wasn't expecting him to play 162 games. I think I've got good 1-2 punches in Longoria and Gonzalez in the CI spots and can probably afford Johnson's stint(s) on the DL.
 
111Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 13:58
For rheo:

16.04 Aaron Hill, 2b, TOR
When I get to this point of the draft I narrow down who I want at some positions. I had narrowed my MI pics to Greene and Hill and when Greene went I bumped Hill up instead of the pitcher I had hoped to grab. I'm not overly worried about his concussion problem. Not sure he'll reach the numbers of 2 years ago but I think he'll still produce.
 
112Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 14:01
16.05 Nick Swisher, 1b/OF, NYY

This is an upside pick as well as a flex pick. Currently it seems as if Swisher is the odd man out in the Yankees' OF/DH rotation. However, it's possible the Yankees could tire of their pair of young CF's....or aging Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could get hurt, or Girardi could possibly platoon Nady and Swisher in RF.

In reality I was on a long weekend and rushed this pick. Had I taken more time I probably would have felt more comfortable with the playing time of Ian Stewart and taken him....or take the huge upside of Delmon Young. But I didn't.
 
113Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 14:02
for dror:

16.06 Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL
Jimenez was hyped going into last year after the Rockies 2007 playoff run, but started slowly before turning it up in the 2nd half, especially in the K's department.

He pitched 200 innings last year and with Jeff Francis out for the season the Rockies are counting on him as the #2 starter, so the opportunity is there. His next step forward should be cutting down on the walks, and if he is able to do that I think he can be this year's Ervin Santana.

 
114Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 15:37
16.07 Dan Wheeler, RP, Tam
This is only my second RP, and after Soria, I’m going to need to find some guys who can vulture some saves or, better yet, ascend into that role. Troy Percival seemed like one of the closers that was least likely to stay healthy all year, and while Wheeler isn’t automatically the guy who would fill in, he’s a strong contender – having been down that same path last year. Even if that doesn’t materialize, I’ll hope for useful ratios (3/12 & 0.995 last year) and around a K per IP.
 
115Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:00
for Filthy
16.08 Mike Napoli, C, LAA
I've had Mike Napoli set up as a back up pick for a while now, and somehow my top picks keep falling in my lap while Napoli remains undrafted. By now, he is worth adding to my team. I already have a pretty solid foundation set for my offense, with Sandoval providing some huge flexibility. If Napoli can come out hitting anywhere close to last year, he should hold the starting job and allow Sandoval to slide into my CI spot. Pretty good upside for a 16th rounder.
 
116Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:01
for Bags
16.09 Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN
I had Casilla last season before his hand injury and was very happy with his production. I’m basically rolling the dice that he can produce like he did last year before his injury.
 
117Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:02
for Philsphan
16.10 Ryan Garko, 1B, CLE
It’s been 7 rounds since my last infield pick. I guess it has become my policy to never reach too much for a CI or MI when there are so many other players available, especially in the middle rounds of a draft. At this point Garko is not a reach, so this was an easy decision to make.

Garko’s power numbers dropped off a lot last year, but it seemed that everybody on Cleveland dropped off last year (sorry Guru). Now that I am the owner of 2 Indians, here’s to the team having a bounce back year, including Ryan Garko!

 
118Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:03
for DaveR
16.11 Denard Span, OF, MIN
I had 3 OFer's, we need 4. At least. I also needed a MI, and almost grabbed one here, but thought that one of Renteria, Guzman, Barlett or Barmes ( and some other tasty selections ) would find there way to me later.

I decided to file my 4th OF position and narrowed it down to Span and Delmon Young ( who interestingly was taken with the next pick. Denard seemingly came out of no where last year to post and OPS of .819, 18 steals, and score 70 runs in a mere 347 AB's. As this goes to press he is still penciled in as the starter in a crowded Minn OF/DH situation, but has had a miserable spring, with his main competition being Young.

Hopefully I chose the right one. With 500 AB's Span should notch 85+ runs, 25-30 steals with decent ratios.

 
119Uptown Bombers
      Donor
      ID: 035616416
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:03
16.12 Delmon Young, OF, MIN
I am only writing this after the flurry of SS has come off the board before my 17th round pick. I’ve been thinking about Young for two rounds and even though I really wanted Lowrie, I figured I was sure to get either him or Barmes next round. Young has had a good spring and he is only two years removed from posting big RBI numbers. Last year he went backwards and didn’t hit for power. This spring the reports indicate that he is in good shape and hitting the ball well. I got pretty excited about this pick, especially since I still expected to land a sleeper SS pick. I was wrong.
 
120JKaye
      Leader
      ID: 01372359
      Wed, Mar 25, 2009, 20:24
16.13 Cristian Guzman, MI, Was

I probably could have waited to select a MI since most of the
remaining options are so similar. But Guzman has more power than
most of them, and has a decent chance to post a .440-.450 SLG.
He should hit 2nd in the order for a revamped Nats offense so 80+
runs is also a good bet. He doesn't steal as many bases as I'd like
for a MI, but he should still chip in 8-10. Overall, a solid MI who
won't kill me as badly as some of the other MI do, with an OPS that
could hit 800.
 
122Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 00:55
16.14 Edgar Renteria, SS, SF

Renteria shores up my middle infield. He was pretty bad last year but he should do better this season as he makes a return to the NL. He will also be batting near the top of the Giants lineup.
 
123Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:24
for holt
16.15 Ian Stewart 2B COL
wow - I was sweating this one. I thought for sure Stewart would be gone but he made it back to me. Something in the Rockies lineup is going to give and this guy is going to get a lot of AB's this season. He qualifies at 2b and 3b and will probably pick up 1b and OF along with those. I see him picking up playing time at a lot of positions. Very few second-basemen can outhit this guy. Obviously, his playing time isn't certain. If we all knew he'd get 500-600 AB he'd be long long gone by now.

Stewart turns 24 in a few days, has a career minor league OPS of .897, MLB OPS of .804 last season, and plays for the Rockies. Just get him in the lineup please.

 
124Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:25
for JL
16.16 Hideki Matsui OF NYY
17.01 Jed Lowrie SS BOS

I needed a fill an OF slot and considered Matsui, Giles, and Lind here. Matsui looks like he’s 55 and has missed significant time in two of the past three seasons, but he’s great when he’s healthy and he’s hitting cleanup for the Yankees. This is a steal if he stays healthy.

Lowrie should be a solid option at MI if he gets playing time. I was surprised to see him fall this far. He’s only 24 and he had a nice OPS in the minor leagues.

 
125Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:26
for holt
17.02 Clint Barmes SS COL
Kendrick, Tejada, Stewart at MI. That's not going to cut it. Barmes is capable of putting up some decent numbers. Right now he seems to be the Rockies starting 2b. Hoping for something close to the .790 OPS and 14 sb of last season. Hopefully Jeff baker gets traded. If that happens then I'm pretty assured of having Barmes and/or Stewart in every Rockies lineup card.

Other players I had been eyeballing who went off the boards in this area were Godzilla and Renteria.

 
126Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:26
for Da Bomb
17.03 Xavier Nady, OF, NYY

Nady put up big numbers the first half of last season with the Pirates. After he was traded to New York he wasn’t as hot but was still productive. His RBI and runs totals will be high playing a full season in the Yankee lineup and recent reports have him penciled in as the cleanup hitter versus lefties while Arod is out.
 
127Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:27
for JKaye
17.04 Brian Giles, OF, SD
I did not go into the draft expecting Giles to be one of my starting OFers. But looking at the numbers, he is a good value in the 17th round. Sure, his power is limited, but he slugged .456 last year which surprised me. And he was consistent, posting a .447 in the 1st half and .467 in the 2nd. If he can do that at age 37 in Petco, why not 38. There is always the chance the Pads trade him to a contender who plays in a better park which could benefit him. In the RIBC, Giles has added value due to his OBP. Patience is one skill that ages well, and Giles got on base at a .399 clip last year. I am not expecting him to repeat his 399/456 in 2009, but with minimal regression, he should still be viable as a #4 OF. Hitting at the top of the order (even on the lowly Padres) should mean 80 runs. Lack of RBI opportunities is a concern but tough to get everything from a 17th round pick.
 
128Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:28
for Uptown Bombers
17.05 Chase Headley, OF/3B, SD
After losing out an all my SS picks, I decided not to reach for position and instead grab another young OF expected to build on last year’s numbers. I drafted Headley last year and held on to him until he was called up. He didn’t exactly make that pick work out, so he owes me this year. Headley can hit. The question is whether he can be patient enough at the plate. I expect him to strike out a lot, but also to adjust to major league pitching better and come close to 75 runs and RBI, with an OPS around .780. I don’t see that many players around with that kind of potential. His 3B eligibility might come in useful, since I don’t have anyone else at that spot besides Cabrera.
 
129Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:29
for Dave R
17.06 Jason Bartlett SS TAM
Nothing sexy with this pick. I needed a 3rd MI, and Bartlett was the best of the rest, IMO. I might have taken Barmes if he was available , but....

Bartlett is locked in as a starter, good enough. He won't do much for the %'s, but should score 60 runs or so and could swipe 25 bases. There are rumors of him being moved to the leadoff spot, which could give him a boost in production

 
130Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:29
for Philsphan
17.07 Akinori Iwamura 2B TAM
This guy sure looked good during the postseason, and watching the Playoffs and World Series I was more worried about him than any of the other hitters for some reason. He just seemed to know how to get on base. Looking for 90-100 R from him and a decent OBP too.
 
131Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:29
for Bags
17.08 Grant Balfour RP TAM
Percival is the closer. I don’t wish injury on anyone’s player but I hear that Balfour is the next in line for saves. Sooooo I’m just say’n. Here’s to Balfour helping my era/whip.
 
132Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:30
for filthy
17.09 Randy Wolf SP LAD
Ian Stewart and Jed Lowrie are 2 more that were on my queue forever, and they are finally gone, so my queue is pretty much full of pitchers now. I need to add some K's and there aren't really any strikeout pitchers left. Lots of interesting names out there though. I've always liked Wolf and he seems to pile up the K's when he is healthy. He bombed in his first Dodger stint, but I think given a full season, he should benefit from being a Dodger.
 
133Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:31
17.10 Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Hou
My fourth starter. The trend has been his friend over the last few years, especially at home, where he posted a 2.99 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 2008. But even his road ERA (4.34) wasn’t terrible. And he fanned almost one per inning.

Nothing flashy here. But hopefully dependable. I had him at the top of my list since the last round, so I’m happy not to have to go scavenging at the ,last minute.

 
134Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 10:33
for dror
17.11 Hong-Chih Kuo RP LAD
I think it's pretty clear to everyone by now that middle relievers play a huge part in deciding the pitching categories in this format. Getting a few hundreds of high quality IP from MR can make a huge difference.

After injuries forced him to move to the bullpen, Kuo was dominating last year with a 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 96 Ks in 80 IP. His stuff is simply amazing so there is no reason to believe those numbers are a fluke, and the bonus for me here is that I also get Broxton's #2 in case something goes wrong with him.

 
135Species
      Dude
      ID: 07724916
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 11:27
17.12 Casey Blake, 1b/3b, LAD

This was a bit of a "make up pick" for my Swisher mistake to ensure I had my 3rd corner infielder. Blake's percentages won't make me smile at all but he's capable of respectable numbers for the 17th round. Multi-position eligibility to cover both corners doesn't hurt either.
 
136Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 18:13
for rheo
17.13 Rafael Soriano RP ATL
Injury risk but I really wanted to solidify my bullpen. There's a chance if he gets healthy he could get some saves. Worth the risk to me.
 
137Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 18:13
for Bash Brothers
17.14 Fausto Carmona SP CLE
Was planning to draft Hong-Chih Kuo but he was gone 3 picks earlier. So I decided to get my 5th SP. A few sources said Carmona was healthy again. Someone even mentioned the possibility of Carmona being the 3rd consecutive pitcher (following Sabathia and Lee) to win Cy Young for the same team (would be a major league record). It's the 17th round, so I thought it might worth the gamble. Never a K pitcher, yet he might notch 15W, sub-4 Era, and sub-1.3 WHIP when healthy, which could be a more realistic goal than the Cy Young award.
 
138Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 18:14
for coldwater coyotes
17.15 Oliver Perez SP NYM
I had missed out on all the decent short stops. I decided to take my fourth SP while I did some more research on a potential SS. Anybody interested in a trade?

Perez has the pitching skills that I am looking for but he is wild. I will have no hesitation in benching him during his poor control stretches. Hopefully he can produce 12 wins and a 4.10 ERA.

 
146jseth333
      Dude
      ID: 24100310
      Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 22:03
17.16 Daniel Murphy OF NYM
18.01 Jordan Zimmerman SP WAS

Couple of prayers here.

Right now Murphy is slated to bat second in a potent Mets lineup. If he can keep up the hitting and not be a liability in the field he could really rack up the numbers.

Assuming Jordan gets a rotation spot and assuming he can keep up his torid spring efforts. Rough outing last time out...hope he responds strongly. I am sure I will have to suffer through some Cueto-like growing pains but what can you do.
 
147Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Fri, Mar 27, 2009, 10:13
Rationales for round 18-25